Bayesian inference for Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its generalization

We present a Bayesian approach for parameter inference of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution [Birnbaum ZW, Saunders SC. A new family of life distributions. J Appl Probab. 1969;6:319–327], as well as the generalized Birnbaum–Saunders distribution developed by Owen [A new three-parameter extension to the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. IEEE Trans Reliab. 2006;55:475–479], in the presence of random right-censored data. To handle the instance of commonly occurred censored observations, we utilize the data augmentation technique [Tanner MA, Wong WH. The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentation. J Amer Statist Assoc. 1987;82(398):528–540] to circumvent the arduous expressions involving the censored data in posterior inferences. Simulation studies are carried out to assess performance of these methods under different parameter values, with small and large sample sizes, as well as various degrees of censoring. Two real data are analysed for illustrative purpose.     

Degradation modeling based on gamma process models with random effects

The random effects in a gamma process are introduced in terms of its scale parameter. However, the scale parameter affects both its mean and variance. Hence, the variation of the degradation rates and the within degradation increments are expected to be large. For some products, the random effects affect just the rate or just the volatility of the process. Thus, two modifications of the parameters' structure of the gamma process are proposed. One implies that the random effects affect just the volatility and the second just the rate. A Bayesian estimation approach is provided and implemented in two case studies.     

Reliability analysis of systems with components having two dependent subcomponents

In this article, a system that consists of n independent components each having two dependent subcomponents (A_i, B_i), i = 1, …, n is considered. The system is assumed to compose of components that have two correlated subcomponents (A_i, B_i), and functions iff both systems of subcomponents A₁, A₂, …, A_n and B₁, B₂, …, B_n work under certain structural rules. The expressions for reliability and mean time to failure of such systems are obtained. A sufficient condition to compare two systems of bivariate components in terms of stochastic ordering is also presented.     

Bivariate degradation analysis of products based on Wiener processes and copulas

Modern highly reliable products usually have complex structure and many functions. This means that they may have two or more performance characteristics. All the performance characteristics can reflect the product's performance degradation over time, and they may be independent or dependent. If the performance characteristics are independent, they can be modelled separately. But if they are not independent, it is very important to find the joint distribution function of the performance characteristics for estimating the reliability of the product as accurately as possible. Here, we suppose that a product has two performance characteristics and the degradation paths of these two performance characteristics can be governed by a Wiener process with a time-scale transformation, and that the dependency of the performance characteristics can be described by a copula function. The parameters of the two performance characteristics and the copula function can be estimated jointly. The model in such a situation is very complicated and analytically intractable and becomes cumbersome from a computational viewpoint. For this reason, the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed for this problem that allows the maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters to be determined in an efficient manner. For an illustration of the proposed model, a numerical example about fatigue cracks is presented.     

Exact confidence region for the parameters of the gamma distribution based on two independent samples

The gamma distribution has been discussed by many authors. This article proposes an exact confidence region for the parameters of a two-parameter gamma distribution. The result is based on the fact that the percentiles of the F-distribution, with equal degrees of freedom k, are monotonic in k.     

Shared gamma frailty models based on reversed hazard rate for modeling Australian twin data

In this paper, we consider shared gamma frailty model with the reversed hazard rate (RHR) with two different baseline distributions, namely the generalized inverse Rayleigh and the exponentiated Gumbel distributions. With these two baseline distributions we propose two different shared frailty models. We develop the Bayesian estimation procedure using Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to estimate the parameters involved in these models. We present a simulation study to compare the true values of the parameters with the estimated values. A search of the literature suggests that currently no work has been done for these two baseline distributions with a shared gamma frailty with the RHR so far. We also apply these two models by using a real life bivariate survival data set of Australian twin data given by Duffy et a1. (1990) and a better model is suggested for the data.     

Residual life estimation based on bivariate Wiener degradation process with time-scale transformations

The issue of residual life (RL) estimation plays an important role for products while they are in use, especially for expensive and reliability-critical products. For many products, they may have two or more performance characteristics (PCs). Here, an adaptive method of RL estimation based on bivariate Wiener degradation process with time-scale transformations is presented. It is assumed that a product has two PCs, and that each PC is governed by a Wiener process with a time-scale transformation. The dependency of PCs is characterized by the Frank copula function. Parameters are estimated by using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Once new degradation information is available, the RL is re-estimated in an adaptive manner. A numerical example about fatigue cracks is given to demonstrate the usefulness and validity of the proposed method.     

Control charts based on dependent count data with deflation or inflation of zeros

The process of serially dependent counts with deflation or inflation of zeros is commonly observed in many applications. This paper investigates the monitoring of such a process, the first-order zero-modified geometric integer-valued autoregressive process (ZMGINAR(1)). In particular, two control charts, the upper-sided and lower-sided CUSUM charts, are developed to detect the shifts in the mean process of the ZMGINAR(1). Both the average run length performance and the standard deviation of the run length performance of these two charts are investigated by using Markov chain approaches. Also, an extensive simulation is conducted to assess the effectiveness or performance of the charts, and the presented methods are applied to two sets of real data arising from a study on the drug use.