My life as a statistician * **

This article was written for a keynote speech to present a few highlights of my life as a statistician. It has seven sections beginning with an introduction in Section 17 some prospects of biostatistics in Section 2, and a tribute to J. Neyman in Section 3. In Section 4 is a sample of my work including motivation for my studies on the life table and competing risks, contributions and comments in survival analyses, a solution for Kolmogorov differential equations, and an explicit formula for the n-step transition probability in discrete time Markov chains.     

Estimation of Laspeyres Price Indexes Using the Prediction Approach for Finite Population Sampling

Estimators of chain and fixed-base Laspeyres price indexes are studied using the prediction approach to finite population sampling. The estimators include some that are based on those used in several U.S. government index programs and others derived from prediction models. Biases and variances of the estimators are studied for a case in which the reference period index weights are unknown for nonsample items. Under a model for a one-period price change in which items have common within-stratum means, unbiased estimators can be constructed, but under a more general regression model, special sample balance conditions are needed for unbiasedness of those estimators. The theory for the estimators of fixed-base indexes is illustrated in an empirical study using a population of items priced for the U.S. Consumer Price Index.     

The Cusum Test for Parameter Change in Time Series Models

Abstract.  In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for parameter changes in time series models based on a cusum test. Although the test procedure is well established for the mean and variance in time series models, a general parameter case has not been discussed in the literature. Therefore, here we develop a cusum test for parameter change in a more general framework. As an example, we consider the change of the parameters in a random coeefficient autoregressive (1) model and that of the autocovariances of a linear process. Simulation results are reported for illustration.     

Suppressing marginal totals from a two-dimensional table to protect sensitive information

The technique of data suppression for protecting sensitive information in a two-dimensional table from exact disclosure raises the computational problems of testing a given table of censored data for security, and searching for a secure suppression pattern of minimum size for a given table. We provide a polynomial security test to solve the former problem, and prove that the latter problem is intractable in the general case, but can be solved in linear time in the special case in which only sensitive cells are to be protected.     

Statistics for Quality and Productivity: A New Graduate-Level Statistics Course

The growing popular realization that American product quality and productivity are no longer without challenge for world leadership presents an opportunity for the American statistical community to make stronger contributions to sound industrial practice than it has in the past. Management consultants, such as Deming and Juran, are promoting philosophies that contain strong statistical components and are being heard by top U.S. executives. There are thus growing opportunities for industrial statisticians. Upon reviewing the content of typical graduate-level statistical quality control courses and books in the light of the present situation, we find them to be inadequate and in some cases to suffer from inappropriate emphases. In this article we discuss our perceptions of what is needed in the way of a new graduate-level course in statistics for quality and productivity (SQP). We further offer for discussion a syllabus for such a course (which is a modification of one used at Iowa State in the 1983 spring semester), some comments on how specific topics might be approached, and also a partially annotated list of references for material that we believe belongs in a modern SQP course.     

Robust Detection of Multiple Outliers in Grouped Multivariate Data

Many methods have been developed for detecting multiple outliers in a single multivariate sample, but very few for the case where there may be groups in the data. We propose a method of simultaneously determining groups (as in cluster analysis) and detecting outliers, which are points that are distant from every group. Our method is an adaptation of the BACON algorithm proposed by Billor, Hadi and Velleman for the robust detection of multiple outliers in a single group of multivariate data. There are two versions of our method, depending on whether or not the groups can be assumed to have equal covariance matrices. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated by its application to two real data sets and further shown by a simulation study for different sample sizes and dimensions for 2 and 3 groups, with and without planted outliers in the data. When the number of groups is not known in advance, the algorithm could be used as a robust method of cluster analysis, by running it for various numbers of groups and choosing the best solution.     

An alternative view of the 2001 census and future census taking

Summary.  The 2001 census in the UK asked for a return of people 'usually living at this address'. But this phrase is fuzzy and may have led to undercount. In addition, analysis of the sex ratios in the 2001 census of England and Wales points to a sex bias in the adjustments for net undercount—too few males in relation to females. The Office for National Statistics's abandonment of the method of demographic analysis for the population of working ages has allowed these biases to creep in. The paper presents a demographic account to check on the plausibility of census results. The need to revise preliminary estimates of the national population over a period of years following census day—as experienced in North America and now in the UK—calls into question the feasibility of a one-number census. Looking to the future, the environment for taking a reliable census by conventional methods is deteriorating. The UK Government's proposals for a population register open up the possibility of a Nordic-style administrative record census in the longer term.     

Parametric Modeling for Survival with Competing Risks and Masked Failure Causes

We consider a life testing situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. Our development is based on parametric distributional assumptions and the special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.     

A method for testing interaction in unreplicated two-way tables: using all pairwise interaction contrasts

Several methods exist for testing interaction in unreplicated two-way layouts. Some are based on specifying a functional form for the interaction term and perform well provided that the functional form is appropriate. Other methods do not require such a functional form to be specified but only test for the presence of non-additivity and do not provide a suitable estimate of error variance for a non-additive model. This paper presents a method for testing for interaction in unreplicated two-way tables that is based on testing all pairwise interaction contrasts. This method (i) is easy to implement, (ii) does not assume a functional form for the interaction term, (iii) can find a sub-table of data which may be free from interaction and to base the estimate of unknown error variance, and (iv) can be used for incomplete two-way layouts. The proposed method is illustrated using examples and its power is investigated via simulation studies. Simulation results show that the proposed method is competitive with existing methods for testing for interaction in unreplicated two-way layouts.     

A meta-analytic framework to adjust for bias in external control studies

While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects in medical research, there is increasing use of and interest in using real-world data for drug development. One such use case is the construction of external control arms for evaluation of efficacy in single-arm trials, particularly in cases where randomization is either infeasible or unethical. However, it is well known that treated patients in non-randomized studies may not be comparable to control patients—on either measured or unmeasured variables—and that the underlying population differences between the two groups may result in biased treatment effect estimates as well as increased variability in estimation. To address these challenges for analyses of time-to-event outcomes, we developed a meta-analytic framework that uses historical reference studies to adjust a log hazard ratio estimate in a new external control study for its additional bias and variability. The set of historical studies is formed by constructing external control arms for historical RCTs, and a meta-analysis compares the trial controls to the external control arms. Importantly, a prospective external control study can be performed independently of the meta-analysis using standard causal inference techniques for observational data. We illustrate our approach with a simulation study and an empirical example based on reference studies for advanced non-small cell lung cancer. In our empirical analysis, external control patients had lower survival than trial controls (hazard ratio: 0.907), but our methodology is able to correct for this bias. An implementation of our approach is available in the R package ecmeta .     

Construction of New Three-Level Response Surface Designs

Response surface methodology is widely used for developing, improving, and optimizing processes in various fields. In this article, we present a method for constructing three-level designs in order to explore and optimize response surfaces combining orthogonal arrays and covering arrays in a particular manner. The produced designs achieve the properties of rotatability, predictive performance and efficiency for the estimation of a second-order model.     

Conditional covariance penalties for mixed models

The prediction error for mixed models can have a conditional or a marginal perspective depending on the research focus. We introduce a novel conditional version of the optimism theorem for mixed models linking the conditional prediction error to covariance penalties for mixed models. Different possibilities for estimating these conditional covariance penalties are introduced. These are bootstrap methods, cross-validation, and a direct approach called Steinian. The behavior of the different estimation techniques is assessed in a simulation study for the binomial-, the t-, and the gamma distribution and for different kinds of prediction error. Furthermore, the impact of the estimation techniques on the prediction error is discussed based on an application to undernutrition in Zambia.     

A joint model of binary and longitudinal data with non-ignorable missingness,with application to marital stress and late-life major depression in women

Understanding how long-term marital stress affects major depressive disorder (MDD) in older women has clinical implications for the treatment of women at risk. In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting MDD in older women (mean age 60) from a marital stress scale administered four times during the preceding 20-year period, with a greater dropout by women experiencing marital stress or MDD. To analyze these data, we propose a Bayesian joint model consisting of: (1) a linear mixed effects model for the longitudinal measurements, (2) a generalized linear model for the binary primary endpoint, and (3) a shared parameter model for the missing data mechanism. Our analysis indicates that MDD in older women is significantly associated with higher levels of prior marital stress and increasing marital stress over time, although there is a generally decreasing trend in marital stress. This is the first study to propose a joint model for incompletely observed longitudinal measurements, a binary primary endpoint, and non-ignorable missing data; a comparison shows that the joint model yields better predictive accuracy than a two-stage model. These findings suggest that women who experience marital stress in mid-life need treatment to help prevent late-life MDD, which has serious consequences for older persons.     

Comparing distributions of time to onset of disease in animal tumorigenicity experiments

The cause-of-death test of Peto et al.(1980)pools information from a Hoel-Walburg test on incidental tumors with information from a logrank test on fatal tumors in order to compare the tumor rate of a group of rodents exposed to a carcinogen against the tumor rate of a group of unexposed animals. The cause-of-death test, which can arise as a partial likelihood score test from a model that assumes proportional odds for tumor prevalence and proportional hazards for tumor mortality, is not, in general, a direct test for equality of tumor onset distributions for occult tumors that are observed in both fatal and incidental contexts. This paper develops a direct cause-of-death test for comparing distributions of time to onset of occultumors. The test is derived as a partial likelihood score test under an assumed proportional hazards model for tumor onset distributions. The size and power of the proposed test are compared in a Monte Carlo simulation study to the size and power of competitive procedures, including procedures that do not require cause-of-death information.     

Phase type stress–strength models with reliability applications

The stress–strength model has attracted a great deal of attention in reliability analysis, and it has been studied under various modeling assumptions. In this article, the stress–strength reliability is studied for both single unit and multicomponent systems when stress and strength distributions are of phase type. Phase-type distributions, besides their analytical tractability, are a versatile tool for modeling a wide range of real life systems/processes. In particular, matrix-based expressions are obtained for the stress–strength reliability, and mean residual strength for an operating system. The results are illustrated for Erlang-type stress–strength distributions for a single unit system and a system having a general coherent structure. An example on the comparison of two multi-state units in stress–strength ordering is also presented.     

The Consistent System

The Consistent System (CS) is an interactive computer system for researchers in the behavioral and policy sciences and in fields with similar requirements for data management and statistical analysis. The researcher is not expected to be a programmer. The system offers a wide range of facilities and permits the user to combine them in novel ways. In particular, tools for statistical analysis may be used in combination with a powerful relational subsystem for data base management. This paper gives an overview of the objectives, capabilities, status, and availability of the system.     

Choice of link and variance function for generalized linear mixed models: a case study with binomial response in proteomics

Abstract

Non-normality is a common phenomenon in data from agricultural and biological research, especially in molecular data (for example; -omics, RNAseq, flow cytometric data, etc.). For over half a century, the leading paradigm called for using analysis of variance (ANOVA) after applying a data transformation. The introduction of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) provides a new way of analyzing non-normal data. Selecting an apt link function in GLMM can be quite influential, however, and is as critical as selecting an appropriate transformation for ANOVA. In this paper, we assess the performance of different parametric link families available in literature. Then, we propose a new estimation method for selecting an appropriate link function with a suitable variance function in a quasi-likelihood framework. We apply these methods to a proteomics data set, showing that GLMMs provide a very flexible framework for analyzing these kinds of data.     

Spatio-temporal model for crop yield forecasting

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects, trend, seasonality and outliers for spatio-temporal time series data. A linear trend, dummy variables for seasonality, a binary method for outliers and a multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model for spatial effects are adopted. A Bayesian method using Gibbs sampling in Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to forecast rice and cassava yields, a spatio-temporal data type, in Thailand. The data have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The proposed model is compared with our previous model, an LMM with MCAR, and a log transformed LMM with MCAR. We found that the proposed model is the most appropriate, using the mean absolute error criterion. It fits the data very well in both the fitting part and the validation part for both rice and cassava. Therefore, it is recommended to be a primary model for forecasting these types of spatio-temporal time series data.     

Randomized nomination sampling for finite populations

We propose a randomized minima–maxima nomination (RMMN) sampling design for use in finite populations. We derive the first- and second-order inclusion probabilities for both with and without replacement variations of the design. The inclusion probabilities for the without replacement variation are derived using a non-homogeneous Markov process. The design is simple to implement and results in simple and easy to calculate estimators and variances. It generalizes maxima nomination sampling for use in finite populations and includes some other sampling designs as special cases. We provide some optimality results and show that, in the context of finite population sampling, maxima nomination sampling is not generally the optimum design to follow. We also show, through numerical examples and a case study, that the proposed design can result in significant improvements in efficiency compared to simple random sampling without replacement designs for a wide choice of population types. Finally, we describe a bootstrap method for choosing values of the design parameters.     

Detecting multiple change points in piecewise constant hazard functions

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) suggests a sudden reduction in prostate cancer mortality rates, likely due to highly successful treatments and screening methods for early diagnosis. We are interested in understanding the impact of medical breakthroughs, treatments, or interventions, on the survival experience for a population. For this purpose, estimating the underlying hazard function, with possible time change points, would be of substantial interest, as it will provide a general picture of the survival trend and when this trend is disrupted. Increasing attention has been given to testing the assumption of a constant failure rate against a failure rate that changes at a single point in time. We expand the set of alternatives to allow for the consideration of multiple change-points, and propose a model selection algorithm using sequential testing for the piecewise constant hazard model. These methods are data driven and allow us to estimate not only the number of change points in the hazard function but where those changes occur. Such an analysis allows for better understanding of how changing medical practice affects the survival experience for a patient population. We test for change points in prostate cancer mortality rates using the NCI Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results dataset.