Some New Discrete Probability Distributions Derived from Power Series Distributions

Power series distributions (PSD) are well documented in the literature. Some of the well-known theoretical models in statistics, like Poisson, negative binomial, and geometric, belong to this family. Many real-life phenomena are represented by these models. Based on these models, some new probability distributions are obtained in this paper. By means of examples it is demonstrated that the derived distributions fit the situations better than the existing models.     

On the Moments of Multivariate Discrete Distributions Using Finite Difference Operators

This article discusses a general approach to finding the moments of two classes of multivariate discrete distributions, which include those widely used in applied and theoretical statistics. The two classes of multivariate discrete distributions are the multivariate generalized power series distributions (GPSD) and the unified multivariate hypergeometric (UMH) Distributions. The results of Link (1981) follow as special cases.     

Gaussian Hypergeometric Probability Distributions for Fitting Discrete Data

The distributions generated by the Gaussian hypergeometric function compose a tetraparametric family that includes many of the most common discrete distributions in the literature. In this article, probability aspects related to the whole family are reviewed and methods of estimation for fitting them to real data are developed. Several applied examples are also provided to illustrate the procedures and compare the methods of estimation.     

On Moments of k-Records from Discrete Distributions

In this article, we establish recurrence relations satisfied by first and second moments of k-records arising from discrete distributions. Then we use these relations to obtain means, variances, and correlation coefficients of geometric k-records. We consider all the three known types of k-records: strong, ordinary, and weak.     

Asymptotic Analysis of Some Discrete Distributions by the Saddle Point Method

We present asymptotic formulas for the probability mass functions of three discrete distributions: the Neyman type A, the compound Poisson–Katz, and the convolution of negative binomial and Pólya–Aeppli. An approximation of the moments of the Neyman type A distribution is also given. All of these results are found by Hayman's encapsulation of the saddle point method.     

Distributions of the product and ratio of Maxwell and Rayleigh random variables

The distributions of the product and ratio of independent random variables arise in many applied problems. These have been extensively studied by many researchers. In this paper, the distributions of the product | XY | and ratio have been derived, when X and Y are Maxwell and Rayleigh random variables and are distributed independently of each other. The associated cdfs, pdfs, kth moments, entropies, etc., have been given. To describe the possible shapes of the associated pdfs and entropies, the respective plots are provided. The percentage points associated with the cdfs of the product and ratio have been tabulated.     

A Proposal for a New Bound for Discrete Distributions

In this work we re-examine some classical bounds for non negative integer-valued random variables by means of information theoretic or maxentropic techniques using fractional moments as constraints. The proposed new bound, no more analytically expressible in terms of moments or moment generating function (mgf), is built by mixing classical bounds and the Maximum Entropy (ME) approximant of the underlying distribution; such a new bound is able to exploit optimally all the information content provided by the sequence of given moments or by the mgf. Particular care will be devoted to obtain fractional moments from the available information given in terms of integer moments and/or moment generating function. Numerical examples show clearly that the bound improvement involving the ME approximant based on fractional moments is not trivial.     

On Two General Classes of Discrete Bivariate Distributions

In this article, we develop two general classes of discrete bivariate distributions. We derive general formulas for the joint distributions belonging to the classes. The obtained formulas for the joint distributions are very general in the sense that new families of distributions can be generated just by specifying the “baseline seed distributions.” The dependence structures of the bivariate distributions belonging to the proposed classes, along with basic statistical properties, are also discussed. New families of discrete bivariate distributions are generated from the classes. Furthermore, to assess the usefulness of the proposed classes, two discrete bivariate distributions generated from the classes are applied to analyze a real dataset and the results are compared with those obtained from conventional models.     

A Moment Preserving Finitization Across the Power Series Family of Probability Distributions

Finitization transforms a discrete distribution into a distribution with smaller support of specified size. In special cases finitization preserves moments (moments of the order n finitization coincide with those of the parent distribution). We create a moment preserving finitization method for power series distributions by introducing an alternative representation and showing how to finitize members of this new class in a manner that preserves moments of the parent distribution. We provide results on convolutions and a reproductive property for power series distributions that have been finitized in this manner, and show how these finitized distributions accelerate variate generation in simulation.     

Maximum Entropy Approximations for Asymptotic Distributions of Smooth Functions of Sample Means

Abstract. We propose an information‐theoretic approach to approximate asymptotic distributions of statistics using the maximum entropy (ME) densities. Conventional ME densities are typically defined on a bounded support. For distributions defined on unbounded supports, we use an asymptotically negligible dampening function for the ME approximation such that it is well defined on the real line. We establish order n^?1 asymptotic equivalence between the proposed method and the classical Edgeworth approximation for general statistics that are smooth functions of sample means. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.     

Some Simple Method of Estimation for the Parameters of the Discrete Stable Distribution with the Probability Generating Function

In this article, we develop a method to estimate the two parameters of the discrete stable distribution. By minimizing the quadratic distance between transforms of the empirical and theoretical probability generating functions, we obtain estimators simple to calculate, asymptotically unbiased, and normally distributed. We also derive the expression for their variance–covariance matrix. We simulate several samples of discrete stable distributed datasets with different parameters, to analyze the effect of tuncation on the right tail of the distribution.     

Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models Using Artificial Neural Network Approximations

I propose a method for inference in dynamic discrete choice models (DDCM) that utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). MCMC is intended to handle high-dimensional integration in the likelihood function of richly specified DDCMs. ANNs approximate the dynamic-program (DP) solution as a function of the parameters and state variables prior to estimation to avoid having to solve the DP on each iteration. Potential applications of the proposed methodology include inference in DDCMs with random coefficients, serially correlated unobservables, and dependence across individual observations. The article discusses MCMC estimation of DDCMs, provides relevant background on ANNs, and derives a theoretical justification for the method. Experiments suggest this to be a promising approach.     

Distributions of simple patterns in some kinds of exchangeable sequences

In this article, we consider the distributions of simple patterns in some types of sequences of infinite exchangeable multi-state trials. The distributions on exchangeable multi-state trials are considered in terms of an extension of de Finetti's theorem. As an application of partially exchangeable sequences, distributions on a Markov exchangeable sequence are studied. Furthermore, we propose a new type of partially exchangeable sequence and examine its properties. In addition, we discuss the distribution theory in the case of the finite exchangeable sequences. The results presented here provide a wide framework for developing the exact distribution theory of simple patterns. Finally, some examples are given in order to illustrate our theoretical results.     

Joint Moment Generating Functions of Nonadjacent Dual Generalized Order Statistics from Reflected Generalized Pareto Distributions

In this article, a class of reflected generalized Pareto distributions (cf. Burkschat et al., 2003 Burkschat , M. , Cramer , E. , Kamps , U. ( 2003 ). Dual generalized order statistics . Metron LXI ( 1 ): 13 – 26 . [Google Scholar]) is considered. Recurrence relations for joint moment generating functions of higher non adjacent dual generalized order statistics based on a random sample drawn from the considered class are derived. Higher joint moments of non adjacent dual generalized order statistics (reversed ordered order statistics and lower k-records as special cases) are obtained. Recurrence relations for single and product moment generating functions and moments of higher non adjacent dual generalized order statistics are derived. Some results of higher moments of non adjacent generalized order statistics from generalized Pareto distributions (cf. Johnson et al., 1995 Johnson , N. L. , Kotz , S. , Balakrishnan , N. ( 1995 ). Continuous Univariate Distributions. , 2nd ed. Vol. 2. New York : Wiley & Sons . [Google Scholar]), are obtained by using a relation connecting higher moments of generalized order statistics and its dual.     

Optimal Partitioning of Probability Distributions under General Convex Loss Functions in Selective Assembly

Selective assembly is an effective approach for improving the quality of a product which is composed of two mating components. This article studies optimal partitioning of the dimensional distributions of the components in selective assembly. It extends previous results for squared error loss function to cover general convex loss functions, including asymmetric convex loss functions. Equations for the optimal partition are derived. Assuming that the density function of the dimensional distribution is log-concave, uniqueness of solutions is established and some properties of the optimal partition are shown. Some numerical results compare the optimal partition with some heuristic partitioning schemes.     

Parameter Estimation for Discrete Distributions by Generalized Hellinger-Type Divergence Based on Probability Generating Function

This article considers a probability generating function-based divergence statistic for parameter estimation. The performance and robustness of the proposed statistic in parameter estimation is studied for the negative binomial distribution by Monte Carlo simulation, especially in comparison with the maximum likelihood and minimum Hellinger distance estimation. Numerical examples are given as illustration of goodness of fit.     

Improved Measures of the Spread of Data for Some Unknown Complex Distributions Using Saddlepoint Approximations

Measures of the spread of data for random sums arise frequently in many problems and have a wide range of applications in real life, such as in the insurance field (e.g., the total claim size in a portfolio). The exact distribution of random sums is extremely difficult to determine, and normal approximation usually performs very badly for this complex distributions. A better method of approximating a random-sum distribution involves the use of saddlepoint approximations.

Saddlepoint approximations are powerful tools for providing accurate expressions for distribution functions that are not known in closed form. This method not only yields an accurate approximation near the center of the distribution but also controls the relative error in the far tail of the distribution.

In this article, we discuss approximations to the unknown complex random-sum Poisson–Erlang random variable, which has a continuous distribution, and the random-sum Poisson-negative binomial random variable, which has a discrete distribution. We show that the saddlepoint approximation method is not only quick, dependable, stable, and accurate enough for general statistical inference but is also applicable without deep knowledge of probability theory. Numerical examples of application of the saddlepoint approximation method to continuous and discrete random-sum Poisson distributions are presented.     

利用概率模型估算广东篮球彩票的中奖概率

2006年足球单场竞猜异常火爆,而全国联网篮彩却一直惨淡经营,竞猜型广东篮球彩票也只试行四个月就夭折,主要问题是篮球玩法和奖金设置不够合理.如何挽救低迷中的篮彩.是一个值得研究的课题,为使广东篮彩成为未来篮彩市场的主流.本文建议提高广东篮彩一等奖的返奖率,并给予保本优惠,再增设二等奖,在此基础上利用美国全国篮球联赛2004-2005赛季的数据建立概率模型来估计中奖概率,为奖金合理设置提供有益的参考.     

Testing the Equality and Exchangeability of Bivariate Distributions

We consider three methods (oments, cut-points, and ranks) for testing the hypotheses of equality of two bivariate distribution functions (H _0a ) and exchangeability (H _0b ). To test H _0a , the asymptotic normality of the vector of mixed moments provides a statistic with an asymptotic chi-square distribution. With every observation, method of cut-points associates three 2 × 2 tables to record the proportions of the X, Y, and the combined samples that fall in the four regions around the observation. We measure the total squared deviations of the proportions in the combined sample from X and Y samples. The two methods are compared with the method of ranks based on the Puri and Sen (1971 Puri , M. L. , Sen , P. K. ( 1971 ). Nonparametric Methods in Multivariate Analysis . New York : John Wiley and Sons . [Google Scholar]) multivariate two-sample rank test for location.

To test H _0b we identify two bivariate distributions, one above and the other below the line of symmetry X = Y, to which a test of H _0a is applied. Under H _0b , matrix of mixed moments is symmetric and a quadratic form in differences of (r,s)-th and (s, r)-th mixed moments provides an asymptotic chi-square distribution. A permutation test is devised to apply the method of cut-points to the observations above and below the line of symmetry after they are folded. We also describe an adaption of the Puri-Sen rank test to assess H _0b . To estimate the power of the above methods under different types of alternatives and compare them to existing tests, we report on a Monte Carlo experiment that evaluates the finite-sample performance of these methods under the Plackett's family of bivariate distributions.     

Estimation of the Lognormal-Pareto Distribution Using Probability Weighted Moments and Maximum Likelihood

This article deals with the estimation of the lognormal-Pareto and the lognormal-generalized Pareto distributions, for which a general result concerning asymptotic optimality of maximum likelihood estimation cannot be proved. We develop a method based on probability weighted moments, showing that it can be applied straightforwardly to the first distribution only. In the lognormal-generalized Pareto case, we propose a mixed approach combining maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments. Extensive simulations analyze the relative efficiencies of the methods in various setups. Finally, the techniques are applied to two real datasets in the actuarial and operational risk management fields.