Up-to-dateness and accuracy of sampling statistics of the population and of the economically active population

The up-to-dateness and accuracy of the population and labor force statistics derived from the micro-census in the Federal Republic of Germany are assessed. The goals, development, and content of micro-censuses carried out between 1957 and 1982 are first reviewed. The next section deals with problems of up-to-dateness, including the speed with which results are produced and their thematic relevance. The remaining sections focus on problems of accuracy, with attention to the sampling plan, random errors, and systematic errors.     

CONDITIONING VS. STANDARDIZATION FOR CONTRASTS ON ERRORS ATTRACTED TO STABLE LAWS

In multiple regression and other settings one encounters the problem of estimating sampling distributions for contrast operations applied to i.i.d. errors. Permutation bootstrap applied to least squares residuals has been proven to consistently estimate conditionalsampling distributions of contrasts, conditional upon order statistics of errors, even for long-tailed error distributions. How does this compare with the unconditional sampling distribution of the contrast when standardizing by the sample s.d. of the errors (or the residuals)? For errors belonging to the domain of attraction of a normal we present a limit theorem proving that these distributions are far closer to one another than they are to the limiting standard normal distribution. For errors attracted to α-stable laws with α ≤ 2 we construct random variables possessing these conditional and unconditional sampling distributions and develop a Poisson representation for their a.s. limit correlation ρ_α. We prove that ρ₂= 1, ρ_α→ 1 for α → 0 + or 2 ?, and ρ_α< 1 a.s. for α < 2.     

Taylor linearization sampling errors and design effects for poverty measures and other complex statistics

A systematic procedure for the derivation of linearized variables for the estimation of sampling errors of complex nonlinear statistics involved in the analysis of poverty and income inequality is developed. The linearized variable extends the use of standard variance estimation formulae, developed for linear statistics such as sample aggregates, to nonlinear statistics. The context is that of cross-sectional samples of complex design and reasonably large size, as typically used in population-based surveys. Results of application of the procedure to a wide range of poverty and inequality measures are presented. A standardized software for the purpose has been developed and can be provided to interested users on request. Procedures are provided for the estimation of the design effect and its decomposition into the contribution of unequal sample weights and of other design complexities such as clustering and stratification. The consequence of treating a complex statistic as a simple ratio in estimating its sampling error is also quantified. The second theme of the paper is to compare the linearization approach with an alternative approach based on the concept of replication, namely the Jackknife repeated replication (JRR) method. The basis and application of the JRR method is described, the exposition paralleling that of the linearization method but in somewhat less detail. Based on data from an actual national survey, estimates of standard errors and design effects from the two methods are analysed and compared. The numerical results confirm that the two alternative approaches generally give very similar results, though notable differences can exist for certain statistics. Relative advantages and limitations of the approaches are identified.     

A Non-Typical Least-Squares Solution to an Engineering Problem

In preposterior analysis, Bayesians use an Expected-Net-Gain chart to identify the optimal sample size. This kind of chart, it turns out, is also an excellent educational vehicle for illustrating many of the reasons given for preferring sampling from a population over taking a census, preferring one type of sampling over another (e.g., stratified sampling rather than simple random sampling), or allocating part of a fixed budget to reduce systematic error rather than using it all to reduce sampling errors. The use of such a chart in a basic statistics course is described.     

Estimation in the singly truncated weibull distribution with an unknown truncation point

When truncation points are unknown, they must be treated as additional parameters to be estimated from the sample data. In this article, estimators are derived for the truncation parameter in addition to basic parameters of both 1eft and riqht sing1y truncated Weibull distributions, Maximum likelihood estimators and estimators involving expected values of appropriate order statistics are derived, Asymptotic sampling errors of estimates are also given, Ill ustrative examples are inc1uded.     

Second Quarter 1973 Survey of the Economic Outlook

The aim of the author is improvement of statistical practice. The author distinguishes between enumerative studies and analytic studies. An enumerative study has for its aim an estimate of the number of units of a frame that belong to a specified class. An analytic study has for its aim a basis for action on the cause-system or the process, in order to improve product of the future. A fair price to pay for an inventory is an example of an enumerative study. Tests of varieties of wheat, insecticides, drugs, manufacturing processes, are examples of analytic studies: the choice of variety or treatment will affect the future out-turn of wheat, future patients, future product. Techniques and methods of inference that are applicable to enumerative studies lead to faulty design and faulty inference for analytic problems.

It is possible, in an enumerative problem, to reduce errors of sampling to any specified level. In contrast, in an analytic problem, it is impossible to compute the risk of making a wrong decision. The author provides a number of examples, and pleads for greater care in the writing and teaching of statistical theory and inference.     

网络调查中的非抽样误差及其预防措施

互联网的迅速发展,给统计调查方法带来了巨大的影响,在互联网的基础之上发展起来的网络调查方法,以其独特的优势,日益受到人们的青睐。本文结合调查误差分析的理论,根据网络自身的特点,分析了网络调查的非抽样误差的来源,并提出了减少误差的方法。     

Generating synthetic data to produce public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data with application to the National Health Interview Survey

Small area statistics obtained from sample survey data provide a critical source of information used to study health, economic, and sociological trends. However, most large-scale sample surveys are not designed for the purpose of producing small area statistics. Moreover, data disseminators are prevented from releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas for disclosure reasons; thus, limiting the utility of the data they collect. This research evaluates a synthetic data method, intended for data disseminators, for releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data. The method replaces all observed survey values with synthetic (or imputed) values generated from a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly accounts for complex sample design features, including stratification, clustering, and sampling weights. The method is applied to restricted microdata from the National Health Interview Survey and synthetic data are generated for both sampled and non-sampled small areas. The analytic validity of the resulting small area inferences is assessed by direct comparison with the actual data, a simulation study, and a cross-validation study.     

Ordered partially ordered judgment subset sampling with applications to parametric inference

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we use the idea of order statistics from independent and non-identically distributed random variables to propose ordered partially ordered judgment subset sampling (OPOJSS) and then develop optimal linear parametric inferences. The best linear unbiased and invariant estimators of the location and scale parameters of a location-scale family are developed based on OPOJSS. It is shown that, despite the presence or absence of ranking errors, the proposed estimators with OPOJSS are uniformly better than the existing estimators with simple random sampling (SRS), ranked set sampling (RSS), ordered RSS (ORSS) and partially ordered judgment subset sampling (POJSS). Moreover, we also derive the best linear unbiased estimators (BLUEs) of the unknown parameters of the simple linear regression model with replicated observations using POJSS and OPOJSS. It is found that the BLUEs with OPOJSS are more precise than the BLUEs based on SRS, RSS, ORSS and POJSS.     

Block permutation principles for the change analysis of dependent data

We study an AMOC model with an abrupt change in the mean and dependent errors that form a linear process. Different kinds of statistics are considered, such as maximum-type statistics (particularly different CUSUM procedures) or sum-type statistics. Approximations of the critical values for change-point tests are obtained through permutation methods. The theoretical results show that the original test statistics and their corresponding block permutation counterparts follow the same distributional asymptotics. The main step in the proof is to obtain limit theorems for the corresponding rank statistics and then use laws of large numbers to obtain the permutation asymptotics conditionally on the given data.     

Extended tables for moments of gamma distribution order statistics

Apart from having intrinsic mathematical interest, order statistics are also useful in the solution of many applied sampling and analysis problems. For a general review of the properties and uses of order statistics, see David (1981). This paper provides tabulations of means and variances of certain order statistics from the gamma distribution, for parameter values not previously available. The work was motivated by a particular quota sampling problem, for which existing tables are not adequate. The solution to this sampling problem actually requires the moments of the highest order statistic within a given set; however the calculation algorithm used involves a recurrence relation, which causes all the lower order statistics to be calculated first. Therefore we took the opportunity to develop more extensive tables for the gamma order statistic moments in general. Our tables provide values for the order statistic moments which were not available in previous tables, notably those for higher values of m, the gamma distribution shape parameter. However we have also retained the corresponding statistics for lower values of m, first to allow for checking accuracy of the computtions agtainst previous tables, and second to provide an integrated presentation of our new results with the previously known values in a consistent format     

Some Imputation Methods to Minimize the Effect of Non Response in Two-Occasion Rotation Patterns

Among modern strategies applied to cope with non response, a major problem faced by survey statisticians, imputation is one of the most common. Imputation is the filling up method of incomplete data for adapting the standard analytic model in statistics. The purpose of the present work is to study the use of imputation methods in dealing with non response which occur at both occasions in two-occasion successive (rotation) sampling. Chain-type regressions in ratio estimators have been proposed for estimating the population mean at current occasion. Expressions for optimum estimator and its mean square error have been derived. To study the effectiveness of the imputation methods, performances of the proposed estimators are compared in two different situations: with and without non response. Behavior of the proposed estimators is demonstrated through empirical studies.     

Nonparametric confidence regions via the analytic wild bootstrap

The wild bootstrap is a nonparametric tool that can be used to estimate a sampling distribution in the presence of heteroscedastic errors. In particular, the wild bootstrap enables us to compute confidence regions for regression parameters under non-i.i.d. models. While the wild bootstrap may perform well in these settings, its obvious drawback is a lack of computational efficiency. The wild bootstrap requires a large number of bootstrap replications, making the use of this tool impractical when dealing with big data. We introduce the analytic wild bootstrap (ANWB), which provides a nonparametric alternative way of constructing confidence regions for regression parameters. The ANWB is superior to the wild bootstrap from a computational standpoint while exhibiting similar finite-sample performance. We report simulation results for both least squares and ridge regression. Additionally, we test the ANWB on a real dataset and compare its performance with that of other standard approaches.     

Quota fulfillment times

An example of the classical occupancy problem is to sample with replacement from an urn containing several colours of balls and count the number of balls sampled until a given number of “quotas” are filled. This and the corresponding random variable for sampling without replacement will be referred to as quota fulfillment times. Asymptotic and exact methods for computing moments and distributions are given in this paper. Moments of quota fulfillment times are related to moments of order statistics of beta and gamma random variables. Most of the results for sampling without replacement and some of the results for sampling with replacement are believed to be new. Some other known sampling-with-replacement results are given for comparative purposes.     

Comparison of order statistics in two-sample problem in the sense of Pitman closeness

In this paper, we study the Pitman measure of closeness of order statistics of two independent samples from the same distribution to population quantiles. We then derive various exact expressions of the probability closeness of order statistics from the X and Y samples. Some distribution-free results for the median of the sampling distribution are obtained. Exact and explicit expressions are presented for Uniform(?1, 1) and exponential distributions. Numerical results for illustrative purposes are also provided.     

Optimized estimation for population mean using conventional and non-conventional measures under the joint influence of measurement error and non-response

Most of the research work in the theory of survey sampling only deals with the sampling errors under the assumptions: (i) there is a complete response and (ii) recorded information from individuals is correct but in practice it is not always true. Non-sampling errors like non-response and measurement errors (MEs) mostly creep into the survey and become more influential for estimators than sampling errors. Considering this practical situation of non-response and MEs jointly, we proposed an optimum class of estimators for population mean under simple random sampling using conventional and non-conventional measures. Bias and mean square error of the proposed estimators are derived up to first degree of approximation. Moreover, a simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of new estimators which proves that proposed estimators are more efficient than the traditional Hansen and Hurwitz estimator and other competing estimators.     

Asymptotic relative efficiency of score tests in Weibull models with measurement errors

The main object of this paper is to discuss properties of the score statistics for testing the null hypothesis of no association in Weibull model with measurement errors. Three different score statistics are considered. The efficient score statistics, a naive score statistics obtained by replacing the unobserved true covariate with the observed one and a score statistics based on the corrected score statistics. It is shown that corrected and naive score statistics are equivalent and the asymptotic relative efficiency between naive and efficient score statistics is derived.     

Rényi statistics for testing equality of autocorrelation coefficients

The problem of testing for equality of autocorrelation coefficients of two populations in multivariate data when errors are autocorrelated is considered. We derive Rényi statistics defined as divergences between unrestricted and restricted estimated joint probability density functions and we show that they are asymptotically chi-square distributed under the null hypothesis of interest. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are carried out to investigate the behavior of Rényi statistics and to make comparisons with test statistics based on the approach of Bhandary [M. Bhandary, Test for equality of autocorrelation coefficients for two populations in multivariate data when the errors are autocorrelated, Statistics & Probability Letters 73 (2005) 333–342] for the problem under consideration. Rényi statistics showed to have significantly better behavior.     

A Bayesian Analysis of a Poisson Random Effects Model for Home Run Hitters

The problem of interest is to estimate the home run ability of 12 great major league players. The usual career home run statistics are the total number of home runs hit and the overall rate at which the players hit them. The observed rate provides a point estimate for a player's “true” rate of hitting a home run. However, this point estimate is incomplete in that it ignores sampling errors, it includes seasons where the player has unusually good or poor performances, and it ignores the general pattern of performance of a player over his career. The observed rate statistic also does not distinguish between the peak and career performance of a given player. Given the random effects model of West (1985), one can detect aberrant seasons and estimate parameters of interest by the inspection of various posterior distributions. Posterior moments of interest are easily computed by the application of the Gibbs sampling algorithm (Gelfand and Smith 1990). A player's career performance is modeled using a log-linear model, and peak and career home run measures for the 12 players are estimated.