Generalized linear regression models incorporating original outcome distributions

ABSTRACT

In this article, we propose an approach for incorporating continuous and discrete original outcome distributions into the usual exponential family regression models. The new approach is an extension of the works of Suissa (1991 Suissa, S. (1991). Binary methods for continuous outcomes: A parametric alternative. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 44:241–248.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Suissa and Blais (1995 Suissa, S., Blais, L. (1995). Binary regression with continuous outcomes. Stat. Med. 14:247–255.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which present methods to estimate the risk of an event defined in a sample subspace of an original continuous outcome variable. Simulation studies are presented in order to illustrate the performance of the developed methodology. Real data sets are analyzed by using the proposed models.     

General Saddlepoint Approximations: Application to the Anderson-Darling Test Statistic

We consider the relative merits of various saddlepoint approximations for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a statistic with a possibly non normal limit distribution. In addition to the usual Lugannani-Rice approximation, we also consider approximations based on higher-order expansions, including the case where the base distribution for the approximation is taken to be non normal. This extends earlier work by Wood et al. (1993 Wood , A. T. A. , Booth , J. G. , Butler , R. W. ( 1993 ). Saddlepoint approximations to the CDF of some statistics with nonnormal limit distributions . Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 : 680 – 686 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). These approximations are applied to the distribution of the Anderson-Darling test statistic. While these generalizations perform well in the middle of the distribution's support, a conventional normal-based Lugannani-Rice approximation (Giles, 2001 Giles , D. E. A. ( 2001 ). A Saddlepoint approximation to the distribution function of the Anderson-Darling test statistic . Communications in Statistics B 30 : 899 – 905 .[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) is superior for conventional critical regions.     

Lag Length Selection in DF-GLS Unit Root Tests

We reinvestigate the empirical problem of lag length selection in unit root tests when using the augmented Dickey–Fuller test based on GLS-detrending. We extend the Ng and Perron (1995 Ng , S. , Perron , P. ( 1995 ). Unit root tests in ARMA models with data-dependent methods for the selection of the truncation lag . Journal of American Statistical Association 90 : 268 – 281 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) work on this issue by applying the finite sample critical values calculated using the formulae proposed by Cheung and Lai (1995 Cheung , Y. W. , Lai , K. S. ( 1995 ). Lag order and critical values of a modified Dickey–Fuller test . Oxford Bulletin of Business and Economics 57 : 411 – 418 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Unlike Ng and Perron (2001 Ng , S. , Perron , P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69:1519–1554.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) we find through simulation studies that the method of selecting lag length using the sequential t-test in the ADF regression of GLS-detrended series performs the best in most cases.     

Assessing One-Step-Ahead Prediction Error Based on the Median for First-Order Autoregressive Models in the Presence Of Outliers

The prediction of the one-step-ahead observation of the first-order autoregressive process in the presence of outliers is considered. The mean square of the prediction error is obtained based on the median estimator of the model parameter for a stationary process. Monte Carlo simulation methods are employed to investigate the performance of the proposed estimator as well as the conventional ordinary least squares estimators proposed by Zhang and Shaman (1995 Zhang , P. , Shaman , P. ( 1995 ). Assessing prediction error in autoregressive models . Trans. Amer. Mathemat. Soc. 347 : 627 – 637 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Kabaila and He (1999 Kabaila , P. , He , Z. ( 1999 ). On assessing prediction error in autoregressive models . J. Time Ser. Anal. 20 : 663 – 670 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) for a process without outliers. The results show that the proposed method outperforms the conventional method. These conclusions are substantiated with results from actual datasets.     

Estimation of the covariance matrix with two-step monotone missing data

Abstract

We suggest shrinkage based technique for estimating covariance matrix in the high-dimensional normal model with missing data. Our approach is based on the monotone missing scheme assumption, meaning that missing values patterns occur completely at random. Our asymptotic framework allows the dimensionality p grow to infinity together with the sample size, N, and extends the methodology of Ledoit and Wolf (2004) Ledoit, O., Wolf, M. (2004). A well-conditioned estimator for large dimensional covariance matrices. J. Multivariate Anal. 88:365–411.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] to the case of two-step monotone missing data. Two new shrinkage-type estimators are derived and their dominance properties over the Ledoit and Wolf (2004) Ledoit, O., Wolf, M. (2004). A well-conditioned estimator for large dimensional covariance matrices. J. Multivariate Anal. 88:365–411.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] estimator are shown under the expected quadratic loss. We perform a simulation study and conclude that the proposed estimators are successful for a range of missing data scenarios.     

Confidence Intervals for Linear Function of Variance Components in Two-Fold Nested Random Effects Model

In the article, we consider the unbalanced case of the two-way nested random effects model under partial balance. Using the method of generalized confidence intervals (GCIs) introduced in Weeranhandi (1993 Weeranhandi , S. ( 1993 ). Generalized confidence intervals . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 88 : 899 – 905 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] 1995 Weeranhandi , S. ( 1995 ). Exact Statistical Methods for Data Analysis . New York : Springer-Verlag . [Google Scholar]), a new method is proposed for constructing confidence intervals on linear function of variance components. To compare the resulted intervals with the Modified Large Sample (MLS) intervals by Hernandez and Burdick (1993 Hernandez , R. P. , Burdick , R. K. ( 1993 ). Confidence intervals on the total variance in unbalanced two-fold nested designs . Biom. J. 35 : 515 – 522 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), a simulation study is conducted. The results indicate that the proposed method performs better than the MLS method, especially for very unbalanced designs.     

Automatic Smoothing for Poisson Regression

Abstract

Adaptive choice of smoothing parameters for nonparametric Poisson regression (O'Sullivan et al., 1986 O'Sullivan , F. , Yandell , B. S. , Raynor , W. J., Jr. ( 1986 ). Automatic smoothing of regression functions in generalized linear models . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 81 : 96 – 103 . [CSA] [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is considered in this article. A computable approximation of the unbiased risk estimate (AUBR) for Poisson regression is introduced. This approximation can be used to automatically tune the smoothing parameter for the penalized likelihood estimator. An alternative choice is the generalized approximate cross validation (GACV) proposed by Xiang and Wahba (1996 Xiang , D. , Wahba , G. ( 1996 ). A generalized approximate cross validation for smoothing splines with non-Gaussian data . Statist. Sinica 6 (3): 675 – 692 .[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Although GACV enjoys a great success in practice when applying for nonparametric logisitic regression, its performance for Poisson regression is not clear. Numerical simulations have been conducted to evaluate the GACV and AUBR based tuning methods. We found that GACV has a tendency to oversmooth the data when the intensity function is small. As a consequence, we suggest tuning the smoothing parameter using AUBR in practice.     

Heavy traffic analysis of roving server networks

This article studies the heavy-traffic (HT) behavior of queueing networks with a single roving server. External customers arrive at the queues according to independent renewal processes and after completing service, a customer either leaves the system or is routed to another queue. This type of customer routing in queueing networks arises very naturally in many application areas (in production systems, computer- and communication networks, maintenance, etc.). In these networks, the single most important characteristic of the system performance is oftentimes the path time, i.e., the total time spent in the system by an arbitrary customer traversing a specific path. The current article presents the first HT asymptotic for the path-time distribution in queueing networks with a roving server under general renewal arrivals. In particular, we provide a strong conjecture for the system’s behavior under HT extending the conjecture of Coffman et al.^{[8 Coffman, Jr, E. G.; Puhalskii, A. A.; Reiman, M. I,. Polling systems with zero switchover times: A heavy-traffic averaging principle. Ann. App. Prob. 1995, 5(3), 681–719.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar],9 Coffman, Jr., E. G.; Puhalskii, A. A.; Reiman, M. I,. Polling systems in heavy-traffic: A Bessel process limit. Math. Oper. Res. 1998, 23, 257–304.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]]} to the roving server setting of the current article. By combining this result with novel light-traffic asymptotics, we derive an approximation of the mean path time for arbitrary values of the load and renewal arrivals. This approximation is not only highly accurate for a wide range of parameter settings, but is also exact in various limiting cases.     

A Comparison of Procedures for Controlling the False Discovery Rate in the Presence of Small Variance Genes: A Simulation Study

The Significance Analysis of Microarrays (SAM; Tusher et al., 2001 Tusher , V. G. , Tibshirani , R. , Chu , G. ( 2001 ). Significance analysis of microarrys applied to the ionizing radiation response . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98 : 5116 – 5121 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) method is widely used in analyzing gene expression data while controlling the FDR by using resampling-based procedure in the microarray setting. One of the main components of the SAM procedure is the adjustment of the test statistic. The introduction of the fudge factor to the test statistic aims at deflating the large value of test statistics due to the small standard error of gene-expression. Lin et al. (2008 Lin , D. , Shkedy , Z. , Burzykowski , T. , Göhlmann , H. W. H. , De Bondt , A. , Perera , T. , Geerts , T. , Bijnens , L. ( 2008 ). Significance analysis of microarray (SAM) for comparisons of several treatments with one control . Biometric Journal, MCP 50 ( 5 ): 801 – 823 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) pointed out that the fudge factor does not effectively improve the power and the control of the FDR as compared to the SAM procedure without the fudge factor in the presence of small variance genes. Motivated by the simulation results presented in Lin et al. (2008 Lin , D. , Shkedy , Z. , Burzykowski , T. , Göhlmann , H. W. H. , De Bondt , A. , Perera , T. , Geerts , T. , Bijnens , L. ( 2008 ). Significance analysis of microarray (SAM) for comparisons of several treatments with one control . Biometric Journal, MCP 50 ( 5 ): 801 – 823 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), in this article, we extend our study to compare several methods for choosing the fudge factor in the modified t-type test statistics and use simulation studies to investigate the power and the control of the FDR of the considered methods.     

Alternative Approximations to Value-At-Risk: A Comparison

This article compares three value-at-risk (VaR) approximation methods suggested in the literature: Cornish and Fisher (1937 Cornish, E.A., Fisher, R.A. (1937). Moments and cumulants in the specification of distributions. Revue de l’Institut International de Statistique 5:307–320.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Sillitto (1969 Sillitto, G.P. (1969). Derivation of approximants to the inverse distribution function of a continuous univariate population from the order statistics of a sample. Biometrika 56:641–650.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Liu (2010 Liu, W.-H. (2010). Estimation and testing of portfolio value-at-risk based on L-comoment matrices. Journal of Futures Markets 30:897–908.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Simulation results are obtained for three families of distributions: student-t, skewed-normal, and skewed-t. We recommend the Sillitto approximation as the best method to evaluate the VaR when the financial return has an unknown, skewed, and heavy-tailed distribution.     

Aspects of Dependence in Generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern Distributions

In this article, we obtained a dependence measure for generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) family in view of Kochar and Gupta (1987 Kochar , S. G. , Gupta , R. P. ( 1987 ). Competitors of Kendall-tau test for testing independence against PQD . Biometrika 74 ( 3 ): 664 – 669 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and then compared this measure with Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau in FGM family. Moreover, we evaluated the empirical power of the class of distribution-free tests proposed by Kochar and Gupta (1987 Kochar , S. G. , Gupta , R. P. ( 1987 ). Competitors of Kendall-tau test for testing independence against PQD . Biometrika 74 ( 3 ): 664 – 669 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 1990 Kochar , S. G. , Gupta , R. P. ( 1990 ). Distribution-free tests based on sub-sample extrema for testing against positive dependence . Australian Journal of Statistics 32 : 45 – 51 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) based on exact distribution of a U-statistics. This is derived via a simulation study for sample of sizes n = 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, and 20. Also, we compared our simulation results with those achieved by Amini et al. (2010 Amini , M. , Jabbari , H. , Mohtashami Borzadaran , G. R. , Azadbakhsh , M. ( 2010 ). Power comparison of independence test for the Farlie-Gumbel-Moregenstern family . Communications of the Korean Statistical Society 17 ( 4 ): 493 – 505 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and Güven and Kotz (2008 Güven , B. , Kotz , S. ( 2008 ). Test of independence for generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern distributions . Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 212 : 102 – 111 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Optimal Designs for Stated Choice Experiments that Incorporate Position Effects

Davidson and Beaver (1977 Davidson , R. R. , Beaver , R. J. ( 1977 ). On extending the Bradley–Terry model to incorporate within-pair order effects . Biometrics 33 : 693 – 702 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) extended the Bradley–Terry model to incorporate the possible effect of position within a choice set on the choices made in paired comparisons experiments. We further extend the Davidson–Beaver result to choice sets of any size and show, under a mild restriction, that designs optimal for the multinomial logit model are still optimal. Designs balanced for carry-over effects of all orders can be used to construct designs with a diagonal information matrix for attribute effects. The theoretical results are derived assuming equal merits and we discuss the possible consequences of assuming unequal merits in an example.     

A Selection Procedure for Selecting the Least Increasing Failure Rate Average Distribution

For k independent absolutely continuous increasing failure rate average (IFRA) life distributions F_i, i = 1, 2, …, k, Link (1989 Link, W.A. (1989). Testing for exponentiality against monotone failure rate average alternatives. Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 18(8): 3009–3017.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) considered a measure of departure of against monotone failure rate average alternatives. In this paper, we use the measure defined by Link for detection of IFRA-ness of life distribution F_i. A two-stage selection procedure to select the least IFRA distribution is proposed. This selection procedure is based on a U-statistic which is an estimator of the measure and can be implemented even when the IFRA life distributions belong to different families. The applications of this procedure are discussed for some well known distributions.     

On Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Two Parameter Burr XII Distribution

This article considers three related aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in the two-parameter Burr XII distribution. Specifically, we first provide further clarification to some limiting results in Wingo (1993 Wingo , D. R. ( 1993 ). Maximum likelihood estimation of Burr XII distribution parameters under Type II censoring . Microelectron. Reliab. 33 : 1251 – 1257 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We then focus on details in a proof of the uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, we consider using the likelihood approach for data which does not satisfy Wingo's criterion, and show that this results in fitting either a Pareto distribution or an intuitively sensible degenerate distribution to the data. The discussion here is completely general, and not restricted to data obtained under Type II censoring.     

Stochastic Comparison on General Inactivity Time and General Residual Life of k-Out-of-n Systems

This paper conducts stochastic comparison on general residual life and general inactivity time of (n ? k + 1)-out-of-n systems and investigates the stochastic behavior of the general inactivity time of a system with units having decreasing reversed hazard rate. These results strengthen some conclusions in both Khaledi and Shaked (2006 Khaledi , B. , Shaked , M. ( 2006 ). Ordering conditional residual lifetimes of coherent systems . Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 137 : 1173 – 1184 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Hu et al. (2007 Hu , T. , Jin , W. , Khaledi , M. ( 2007 ). Ordering conditional distributions of generalized order statistics . Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences 21 : 401 – 417 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Estimators for the Population Mean in the Case of Missing Data

We propose a class of estimators for the population mean when there are missing data in the data set. Obtaining the mean square error equations of the proposed estimators, we show the conditions where the proposed estimators are more efficient than the sample mean, ratio-type estimators, and the estimators in Singh and Horn (2000 Singh , S. , Horn , S. ( 2000 ). Compromised imputation in survey sampling . Metrika 51 : 267 – 276 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Singh and Deo (2003 Singh , S. , Deo , B. (2003). Imputation by power transformation. Statist. Pap. 44:555–579.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in the case of missing data. These conditions are also supported by a numerical example.     

A Meta Analytic Approach to Testing for Panel Cointegration

We propose new tests for panel cointegration by extending the panel unit root tests of Choi (2001 Choi , I. ( 2001 ). Unit root tests for panel data . Journal of International Money and Finance 20 ( 2 ): 249 – 272 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Maddala and Wu (1999 Maddala , G. , Wu , S. ( 1999 ). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 ( S1 ): 631 – 652 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) to the panel cointegration case. The tests are flexible, intuitively appealing, and relatively easy to compute. We investigate the finite sample behavior in a simulation study. Several variants of the tests compare favorably in terms of both size and power with other widely used panel cointegration tests.     

On Rates of Convergence for Posterior Distributions Under Misspecification

We extend the approach of Walker (2003 Walker , S. ( 2003 ). On sufficient conditions for Bayesian consistency . Biometrika 90 ( 2 ): 482 – 488 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]); (2004 Walker , S. ( 2004 ). New approaches to Bayesian consistency . Ann. Statist. 32 ( 5 ): 2028 – 2043 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the case of misspecified models. A sufficient condition for establishing rates of convergence is given based on a key identity involving martingales, which does not require construction of tests. We also show roughly that the result obtained by using tests can also be obtained by our approach, which demonstrates the potential wider applicability of this method.     

Tests for Multiple Outliers in an Exponential Sample

By applying the recursion of Huffer (1988 Huffer, F. 1988. Divided differences and the joint distribution of linear combinations of spacings. Journal of Applied Probability, 25: 346–354. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) repeatedly, we propose an algorithm for evaluating the null joint distribution of Dixon-type test statistics for testing discordancy of k upper outliers in exponential samples. By using the critical values of Dixon-type test statistics determined from the proposed algorithm and those of Cochran-type test statistics presented earlier by Lin and Balakrishnan (2009 Lin, C. T. and Balakrishnan, N. 2009. Exact computation of the null distribution of a test for multiple outliers in an exponential sample. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 53: 3281–3290. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), we carry out an extensive Monte Carlo study to investigate the powers and the error probabilities for the effects of masking and swamping when the number of outliers k = 2 and 3. Based on our empirical findings, we recommend Rosner’s (1975 Rosner, B. 1975. On the detection of many outliers. Technometrics, 17: 221–227. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) sequential test procedure based on Dixon-type test statistics for testing multiple outliers from an exponential distribution.