Selecting a test level for random effects

A method is presented for selecting an a-level to use when testing for group difference in a one-way classification random effects model. The a-level is chosen to make the power of the test equal to .5 when the parameters are such that between group mean square and total mean square are equally good minimum expected squared error estimators of the variance of y the estimator of the mean     

Small area estimation strategies for large population surveys: a comparison of design and model-based methods

Small area estimation (SAE) concerns with how to reliably estimate population quantities of interest when some areas or domains have very limited samples. This is an important issue in large population surveys, because the geographical areas or groups with only small samples or even no samples are often of interest to researchers and policy-makers. For example, large population health surveys, such as Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System and Ohio Mecaid Assessment Survey (OMAS), are regularly conducted for monitoring insurance coverage and healthcare utilization. Classic approaches usually provide accurate estimators at the state level or large geographical region level, but they fail to provide reliable estimators for many rural counties where the samples are sparse. Moreover, a systematic evaluation of the performances of the SAE methods in real-world setting is lacking in the literature. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with constraints on the parameter space and show that it provides superior estimators for county-level adult uninsured rates in Ohio based on the 2012 OMAS data. Furthermore, we perform extensive simulation studies to compare our methods with a collection of common SAE strategies, including direct estimators, synthetic estimators, composite estimators, and Datta GS, Ghosh M, Steorts R, Maples J.'s [Bayesian benchmarking with applications to small area estimation. Test 2011;20(3):574–588] Bayesian hierarchical model-based estimators. To set a fair basis for comparison, we generate our simulation data with characteristics mimicking the real OMAS data, so that neither model-based nor design-based strategies use the true model specification. The estimators based on our proposed model are shown to outperform other estimators for small areas in both simulation study and real data analysis.     

A class of estimators using auxiliary information in sample surveys

A large class of estimators is considered for the mean of a finite population using information on an auxiliary variable. It is shown that members of this class of estimators are asymptotically no more efficient than the linear regression estimator.     

A quadratic approximation for Jackknife estimators of the variance of sample mean functions

Jackknife estimators of the variance of estimators which are functions of the sample mean are considered. A quadratic approximation of them is proposed and compared with a linear approximation by Monte Carlo experiments carried out by statistical software Minitab.     

Asymptotically optimal shrinkage estimates for non-normal data

Motivated by several practical issues, we consider the problem of estimating the mean of a p-variate population (not necessarily normal) with unknown finite covariance. A quadratic loss function is used. We give a number of estimators (for the mean) with their loss functions admitting expansions to the order of p ^?1/2 as p→∞. These estimators contain Stein's [Inadmissibility of the usual estimator for the mean of a multivariate normal population, in Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium in Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol. 1, J. Neyman, ed., University of California Press, Berkeley, 1956, pp. 197–206] estimate as a particular case and also contain ‘multiple shrinkage’ estimates improving on Stein's estimate. Finally, we perform a simulation study to compare the different estimates.     

Estimating the variances of ratio estimates in complex sample surveys with two primary sampling units per stratum—a comparison of balanced replication and jackknife techniques

The balanced half-sample and jackknife variance estimation techniques are used to estimate the variance of the combined ratio estimate. An empirical sampling study is conducted using computer-generated populations to investigate the variance, bias and mean square error of these variance estimators and results are compared to theoretical results derived elsewhere for the linear case. Results indicate that either the balanced half-sample or jackknife method may be used effectively for estimating the variance of the combined ratio estimate.     

Statistical inference for α-series process with the inverse Gaussian distribution

Statistical inferences for the geometric process (GP) are derived when the distribution of the first occurrence time is assumed to be inverse Gaussian (IG). An α-series process, as a possible alternative to the GP, is introduced since the GP is sometimes inappropriate to apply some reliability and scheduling problems. In this study, statistical inference problem for the α-series process is considered where the distribution of first occurrence time is IG. The estimators of the parameters α, μ, and σ² are obtained by using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Asymptotic distributions and consistency properties of the ML estimators are derived. In order to compare the efficiencies of the ML estimators with the widely used nonparametric modified moment (MM) estimators, Monte Carlo simulations are performed. The results showed that the ML estimators are more efficient than the MM estimators. Moreover, two real life datasets are given for application purposes.     

分层线性模型的最大后验估计

最大后验估计（MAPE）和最大似然估计（MLE）都是重要的参数点估计方法。在介绍一般分层线性模型（HLM）MAPE方法的基础上,给出这种方法的期望最大化算法（EM）的具体步骤,运用对数似然函数的二阶导数推导了MAPE估计的方差估计量。同时运用数据模拟比较了EM算法下的MAPE和MLE。对于固定效应的估计,两种方法得到的估计量是一致的。当组数较少时,EM计算的MAPE的方差协方差成分比MLE的更靠近真实值,而且MAPE的迭代次数明显小于MLE。     

A BETA-BINOMIAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF A HETEROGENEOUS POPULATION

This paper compares the properties of various estimators for a beta‐binomial model for estimating the size of a heterogeneous population. It is found that maximum likelihood and conditional maximum likelihood estimators perform well for a large population with a large capture proportion. The jackknife and the sample coverage estimators are biased for low capture probabilities. The performance of the martingale estimator is satisfactory, but it requires full capture histories. The Gibbs sampler and Metropolis‐Hastings algorithm provide reasonable posterior estimates for informative priors.     

Estimators for the inverse powers of a normal mean

Given a sample from a normal population unbiased estimators are obtained for positive powers of the mean and estimators of almost exponentially small bias are obtained for negative powers of the mean. Simulation studies show superior performance of these estimators versus known ones.     

Non-parametric estimation of lifetime distribution of competing risk models when censoring times are missing

There are situations in the analysis of failure time or lifetime data where the censoring times of unfailed units are missing. The non-parametric estimator of the lifetime distribution for such data is available in literature. In this paper we consider an extension of this situation to the univariate and bivariate competing risk setups. The maximum likelihood and simple moment estimators of cause specific distribution functions in both univariate and bivariate situations are developed. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the estimators. Finally, we illustrate the method with real data set.     

Variance components of the linear regression model with a random intercept

Several estimators for the variance components of the above model are derived. Biases and mean square errors of the estimators for small samples are examined. Results on the skewness and kurtosis coefficients and the large sample biases and mean square errors of these estimators are presented in detail.     

Estimation of the common mean of two univariate normal populations

The problem of estimating the common mean μ of two univariate normal populations with unknown and unequal variances is considered from a decision-theoretic point of view. We restrict our attention to an appropriate class C and its three subclasses C_0C1C2of un-biased estimates of μ. We consider the usual estimate μ⁰ of μ which is the weighted linear combination of the sample means with weights as reciprocals of the sample variances. Its admissibility in C₀ and extended admissibility in C is proved. Admissible estimates in C₁ and C₂are also obtained.The loss is always assumed to be squared error. The question of admissibility of μ⁰ in the class of all estimators is still open.     

Estimating Quantiles of Normal Populations with a Common Mean

Suppose independent random samples are available from two normal populations with a common mean and unequal variances. Estimation of a quantile of the first population is considered with respect to the quadratic loss. Some new estimators for the quantile are proposed using some previously known estimators of a common mean. Inadmissibility results are proved for estimators which are equivariant under affine and location groups of transformations. Risk values of various estimators of a quantile are compared numerically using a detailed simulation study.     

Estimation of the optimal portfolio weights by shrinking the mean vector towards a linear subspace

To obtain estimators of mean-variance optimal portfolio weights, Stein-type estimators of the mean vector that shrink a sample mean towards the grand mean have been applied. However, the dominance of these estimators has not been shown under the loss function used in the estimation problem of the mean-variance optimal portfolio weights, which is different than the quadratic function for the case in which the covariance matrix is unknown. We analytically give the conditions for Stein-type estimators that shrink towards the grand mean, or more generally, towards a linear subspace, to improve upon the classical estimators, which are obtained by simply plugging in sample estimates. We also show the dominance when there are linear constraints on portfolio weights.     

Estimation of parameters of a right truncated exponential distribution

The maximum likelihood, moment and mixture of the estimators are for samples from the right truncated exponential distribution. The estimators are compared empirically when all the parameters are unknown; their bias and mean square error are investigated with the help of numerical technique. We have shown that these estimators are asymptotically unbiased. At the end, we conclude that mixture estimators are better than the maximum likelihood and moment estimators.     

Some improved estimators for a measures of dispersion of an inverse gaussian distribution

In this paper some improved estimators for the measure of dispersion of an inverse Gaussian distribution have been obtained. If some guessed value of λ is available in the form of a point esitmate λ₀ the shrikage technique has been applied and an estimator has been proposed which has smaller mean squared error than the usual estimator. Since the shrinkage estimator has better performance if the guessed value is in the vicinity of the true value, a shrinkage testimator has also been proposed and compared with the usual estimator.     

Exponential-Type Estimators of the Mean of a Sensitive Variable in the Presence of Nonsensitive Auxiliary Information

Sousa et al. and Gupta et al. suggested ratio and regression-type estimators of the mean of a sensitive variable using nonsensitive auxiliary variable. This article proposes exponential-type estimators using one and two auxiliary variables to improve the efficiency of mean estimator based on a randomized response technique. The expressions for the mean squared errors (MSEs) and bias, up to first-order approximation, have been obtained. It is shown that the proposed exponential-type estimators are more efficient than the existing estimators. The gain in efficiency over the existing estimators has also been shown with a simulation study and by using real data.     

Robustness estimators of location:a classification of linear and adaptive estimators

Real-world data sets may be described in terms similar to trauma cases- 'messy' with 'high morbidity'. Alternative estimators to the traditional mean are examined via a simulation study over a wide range of both symmetric and asymmetric distributions. These alternative estimators are data depenmdent and, in most cases, represent data far better than the usual mean. Princeton and post-Princeton linear and adaptive estimators of location are summarized, and a classification scheme based on an ancillary or selector statistic is proposed. The computational formulae for the collection of estimators have been standardized, as have the ancillary statistics. We classify these estimators by their computational form, give the computational formulae for each in a standardized notation, evaluate the subclass of estimators, and identify our 'winner' in that class.     

A note on ranked-set sampling using a covariate

Ranked-set sampling (RSS) and judgment post-stratification (JPS) use ranking information to obtain more efficient inference than is possible using simple random sampling. Both methods were developed with subjective, judgment-based rankings in mind, but the idea of ranking using a covariate has received a lot of attention. We provide evidence here that when rankings are done using a covariate, the standard RSS and JPS mean estimators no longer make efficient use of the available information. We first show that when rankings are done using a covariate, the standard nonparametric mean estimators in JPS and unbalanced RSS are inadmissible under squared error loss. We then show that when rankings are done using a covariate, nonparametric regression techniques yield mean estimators that tend to be significantly more efficient than the standard RSS and JPS mean estimators. We conclude that the standard estimators are best reserved for settings where only subjective, judgment-based rankings are available.