ALLOCATE: A COMPUTER MODEL FOR SALES TERRITORY PLANNING

Recent years have witnessed a renewal of interest in the application of management science techniques to personal selling related problems. Some early applications are described in [2] [7]. Cloonan has employed simulation in examination of the salesman routing problem [3] [4]. Lodish, in CALLPLAN, has devised an interactive call planning system designed to assist sales management and/or salesmen in allocating sales call time more efficiently [6]. Armstrong has devised a system he labels SCHEDULE which estimates the value of calls on accounts [1]. Hess and Samuels have designed a computer based sales districting model which is an analogue of a legislative apportionment model [5]. The objective of this paper is to explore the nature of a call planning system entitled ALLOCATE. ALLOCATE was designed to be employed by upper sales management either as an input device for sales management decisions such as sales-territory-size, or as a vehicle for determining the effects of alternative call allocation strategies on territorial revenue over multiple time periods.     

OPTIMAL PLANNING: THE USE OF SALES FORECASTS

Budgets are established and decisions in a firm are made on the basis of the sales forecast. In the majority of firms this forecast is a single value estimate of sales. The decisions made on the basis of the single value estimate frequently fall short of optimal strategies because of costs that occur when actual sales differ from forecast sales. These costs, measured in terms of opportunity losses, can be minimized when considered in conjunction with a probability distribution of sales. Three methods for determining the probability distribution of sales are considered in this paper. These are regression analysis Schlaifer's approach for establishing a subjective distribution, and Bayesian regression. The use of the distribution in conjunction with linear and quadratic loss functions is illustrated.     

DECISION RULES IN PRODUCTION PLANNING UNDER CHANGE-CONSTRAINED SALES*

Alternative decision rules for aggregate production scheduling are specified here under chance-constrained sales and compared with the HMMS model. These rules are evaluated for their performance on the basis of simulated data on sales and it is found that the linear decision rules of the HMMS model can be considerably improved.     

THE EFFECT OF RETAIL PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES ON SALES*

This article reports the formulation and results of a multiple equation econometric model to relate retail sales by brand and package size to retail promotional variables for a branded, frequently purchased grocery product. Primary emphasis is placed on the formulation of the model as opposed to the results obtained from its use.     

USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.     

A SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN INVENTORIES AND SALES OF MERCHANT WHOLESALERS

In this study cross-spectral methods are used to test the hypothesis that inventory investment leads sales of merchant wholesalers through the short-term, seasonal frequencies, but sales lead inventories through the long-term, cyclical frequencies. An intuitive explanation and a time-domain, generating model for the reversal phenomenon are given.     

STATISTICAL VERSUS SALES FORCE–EXECUTIVE OPINION SHORT RANGE FORECASTS: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS CASE STUDY

This paper presents a comparison of statistical techniques versus a sales force-executive opinion approach to forecasting single item demand over a five year period for a single company. Three statistical techniques are used: Winter's three parameter exponential smoothing model, Brown's harmonic model, and Box-Jenkins methodology. These techniques are compared against the company's forecasts and actual sales for a five year period. The results indicate an interesting area for further research.     

SALES AND COLLUSION IN A MARKET WITH STORAGE

Sales are a widespread and well‐known phenomenon documented in several product markets. This paper presents a novel rationale for sales that does not rely on consumer heterogeneity, or on any form of randomness to explain such periodic price fluctuations. The analysis is carried out in the context of a simple repeated price competition model, and establishes that firms must periodically reduce prices in order to sustain collusion when goods are storable and the market is large. The largest equilibrium profits are characterized at any market size. A trade‐off between the size of the industry and its profits arises. Sales foster collusion, by magnifying the inter‐temporal links in consumers' decisions.     

Self-Efficacy Beliefs and Sales Performance

Self-efficacy theory predicts that people will perform better when they believe they have the skills necessary for success. It also suggests, however, that believing in long-term rewards for success ("response-outcome expectations") does not correlate with adequate performance. This paper supports the generality of self-efficacy theory and provides evidence that self-efficacy beliefs predict insurance sales performance, whereas response-outcome expectations did not. A questionnaire was developed to measure self-efficacy beliefs and response-outcome expectations using 200 insurance sales representatives. Regression analyses were computed on a different sample of 97 insurance sales representatives using four separate dependent variables (calls-per-week; number of policies sold; sales revenue and a composite performance index on which actual sales commission was based). (1) These analyses established a correlation (but no causal relationship) between self-efficacy beliefs and sales performance. (2) The generality of self-efficacy theory in a business setting is suggested by the relationship between self-efficacy and objective measures of sales performance. (3) The relevance of these results, and the importance of integrating them into the practice of organizational behavior modification is discussed.     

Increasing Sales by Managing the Interlocking Contingencies Between Sales Representatives and Customers Using Behavioral Self-Monitoring

Interlocking contingencies that exist between a customer and sales representatives (SRs) may contribute to buying decisions. Verbal behaviors related to closing sales were identified by analyzing these contingencies statistically. Self-observation checklists were then implemented. On average, the six targeted verbal behaviors related to sales increased 12 percentage points over baseline, compared to a 2% point increase in the comparison group. These changes were associated with 126% more sales for the experimental group compared with 36% more sales for the comparison group. For each SR, this increase in sales translates into $1,094,444 more in annualized revenue.     

RETAIL INVENTORY CONTROL WITH LOST SALES,SERVICE CONSTRAINTS,AND FRACTIONAL LEAD TIMES

This paper describes a periodic review, fixed lead time, single-product, single-facility model with random demand, lost sales and service constraints that was developed for potential application at a Western Canadian retailer. The objective of this study was to determine optimal (s, S) policies for a large number of products and locations. To this end, we evaluate the long run average cost and service level for a fixed (s, S) policy and then used a search procedure to locate an optimal policy. The search procedure is based on an efficient updating scheme for the transition probability matrix of the underlying Markov chain, bounds on S and monotonicity assumptions on the cost and service level functions. A distinguishing feature of this model is that lead times are shorter than review periods so that the stationary analysis underlying computation of costs and service levels requires subtle analyses. We compared the computed policies to those currently in use on a test bed of 420 products and found that stores currently hold inventories that are 40% to 50% higher than those recommended by our model and estimate that implementing the proposed policies for the entire system would result in significant cost savings.     

基于公平关切线上与线下销售渠道演化博弈研究

公平关切影响决策行为,为分析公平关切对线上与线下销售渠道决策行为和竞争策略影响,构建线上与线下销售渠道博弈模型。基于博弈模型,对比分析四种公平关切情况对线上与线下决策变量和利润影响。进一步,为获得线上与线下稳定博弈结果,基于四种公平关切构建演化博弈模型,分析不同公平关切行为对销售渠道参与者决策行为影响。研究主要得到：一方采取公平关切时,会减少另一方收益;一方采取合作公平关切策略与另一方采取公平关切密切相关,也即当一方采取公平关切概率大于某一阀值时,另一方采取不公平关切;线上与线下经过长期演化博弈,演化稳定点为双方都采取公平关切。     

OPTIMALITY OF STATE-DEPENDENT (s,S) POLICIES IN INVENTORY MODELS WITH MARKOV-MODULATED DEMAND AND LOST SALES

Markov-modulated processes have been used in stochastic inventory models with setup costs for modeling demand under the influence of uncertain environmental factors, such as fluctuating economic and market conditions. The analyses of these models have been carried out in the literature only under the assumption that unsatisfied demand is fully backlogged. The lost sales situation occurs in many retail establishments such as department stores and supermarkets. We use the analysis of the Markovian demand model with backlogging to analyze the lost sales case; in particular, we establish the optimality of an (s, S)-type policy under fairly general conditions.     

A Two-Period Repeated Game Advertising Investment Model for Oligopolistic Markets with an Application to the Beer Industry*

This paper proposes a simple analytical model of advertising competition in oligopoly markets. The widely used log-log sales response function underlies the model specification. Advertising carryover effects are assumed to persist for one period following the period in which the expenditure occurs. Firms are assumed to be engaged in a repeated competitive game in which in every period advertising levels are set such that they maximize current and next period (i.e., two-period) profits. A Nash equilibrium solution is sought for the game. Compared with previous empirical studies of advertising competition in a game theoretic framework, the proposed model offers the following advantages: (1) oligopoly, not duopoly, markets are analyzed; (2) industry sales is allowed to vary over time as a function of advertising expenditures; (3) non-zero discount rates are used for the players. An empirical application is provided using data from the beer market on sales and advertising expenditures of Anheuser-Busch and Miller Brewing. Comparisons are provided with policies that ignore the dependence of next period profits on current advertising levels, reaction function strategies and spending levels obtained from a market share game. Extension of the model formulation to multiple marketing instruments is briefly discussed.     

Satisfying and Retaining Customers through Independent Service Representatives

The degree of leverage possessed by manufacturers who outsource their customer service function to channel partners over customer satisfaction and loyalty is assessed empirically. Data provided by independent service representatives are linked with data from their customers. Results indicate that a manufacturer's support of its representatives increases their job satisfaction which, in turn, is indirectly linked to the customer satisfaction through shared perceptions of service performance and quality. However, the strength of the effects is modest, suggesting that manufacturers may need to consider direct customer contact strategies or contractual means of assuring customer satisfaction when independent service representatives “own the customer.” Conceptually, the hypothesized shared mindset model is tested against the competing affect transfer model, resulting in support for the former. Job satisfaction moderates the degree of agreement between representatives' and customers' perceptions of service performance and quality such that greater agreement occurs when job satisfaction is high.     

Manufacturer's pricing strategy for supply chain with warranty period-dependent demand

This article presents a review of the issues associated with a manufacturer's pricing strategies in a two-echelon supply chain that comprises one manufacturer and two competing retailers, with warranty period-dependent demands. The manufacturer, as a Stackelberg leader, specifies wholesale prices to two competing retailers who face warranty period-dependent demand and have different sales costs. The manufacturer considers three pricing options: (1) setting the same price for both retailers, while disregarding their difference with regard to sales cost; (2) setting a different price to each retailer on the basis of their sales cost; and (3) setting the same price to both retailers according to the average sales cost of the industry. In this article, the retailers' optimal warranty periods and their optimal profit, manufacturer's optimal wholesale price, and his/her optimal profit associated with different pricing strategies have been derived using the game theory. Our analysis shows that the results for retailers are the same with Strategy 1 or Strategy 3. In addition, we compared the effects of different pricing strategies of the manufacturer on supply chain decisions and profit. We conclude from the results that the manufacturer should either adopt Strategy 2 with symmetrical sales cost information or Strategy 3 if retailers' sales costs are asymmetrical.     

A Sales Forecast Model for Short‐Life‐Cycle Products: New Releases at Blockbuster

We develop, in this article, a sales model for movie and game products at Blockbuster. The model assumes that there are three sales components: the first is from consumers who have already committed to purchasing (or renting) a product (e.g., based on promotion of, or exposure to, the product prior to its launch); the second comes from consumers who are potential buyers of the product; and the third comes from either a networking effect on closely tied (as in a social group) potential buyers from previous buyers (in the case of movie rental and all retail products) or re‐rents (in the case of game rental). In addition, we explicitly formulate into our model dynamic interactions between these sales components, both within and across sales periods. This important feature is motivated by realism, and it significantly contributes to the accuracy of our model. The model is thoroughly tested against sales data for rental and retail products from Blockbuster. Our empirical results show that the model offers excellent fit to actual sales activity. We also demonstrate that the model is capable of delivering reasonable sales forecasts based solely on environmental data (e.g., theatrical sales, studio, genre, MPAA ratings, etc.) and actual first‐period sales. Accurate sales forecasts can lead to significant cost savings. In particular, it can improve the retail operations at Blockbuster by determining appropriate order quantities of products, which is critical in effective inventory management (i.e., it can reduce the extent of over‐stocking and under‐stocking). While our model is developed specifically for product sales at Blockbuster, we believe that with context‐dependent modifications, our modeling approach could also provide a reasonable basis for the study of sales for other short‐Life‐Cycle products.     

Japanese Retailing Through the 1990s: Retailer Performance in a Decade of Slow Growth

The development of Japanese retailing through the 1990s is used to illustrate the applicability of a Europe-based growth model in a recessionary market. Through the 1990s the Japanese economy suffered low growth and periods of recession, after strong growth through the 1980s. Retail sales in the 1990s increased only slightly whilst floor-space developments begun in the 1980s and the result of retailer expansion strategies generated increased retail capacity. Large retailers pursued strategies of opening more stores in order to generate sales, but this proved disastrous and resulted in lower productivity, high levels of debt, low levels of innovation and consequential need to restructure. General merchandise and department-store retailers were slow to see the need to restructure and innovate. In contrast, three groups of retailers obtained competitive advantages from the recession, namely retailers who responded quickly to emergent market segments, foreign retailers and e-retailers. The strategic responses to recession and the reasons behind these responses are illustrated and suggestions made on how the experiences of the 1990s will affect development in the early 2000s. Implications of the retailers' behaviour are indicated for retailer strategies, the restructuring of the sector and for research on strategy and structural change.     

Interactive Multiple Objective Decision Support for Sales Force Sizing and Deployment*

An interactive decision aid is introduced for the deployment of two sales resources: salespeople and sales support staff. The aid consists of a normative sales resource allocation model with five objectives and an interactive multiple objective programming solution procedure. The specific decision problem addressed involves the assignment of salespeople and sales support people to customer accounts and the allocation of the time they spend on these accounts. The authors contribute to the existing sales resource modeling literature by dealing with the deployment of two sales resources and interactively solving this problem with respect to five short-run and long-run objectives of the firm. This approach differs from existing sales force modeling efforts in which the solution is found noninteractively by optimizing a single sales resource model with respect to a single objective, often short-run sales. An application of the decision aid to the deployment problem of an industrial sales force manager is presented. Furthermore, useful extensions of the basic sales resource allocation model are discussed.