Managing Clearance Sales in the Presence of Strategic Customers

We study the effect of strategic customer behavior on pricing and rationing decisions of a firm selling a single product over two periods. The seller may limit the availability of the product (that is, ration) in the second (clearance) period. Some customers are strategic and respond to the firm's decisions by timing their purchases. When capacity is nonconstraining and the seller has pricing flexibility, we show that rationing in the clearance period cannot improve revenue. However, when prices are fixed in advance, rationing can improve revenue. In the latter case, we conduct a detailed analysis for linear and exponential demand curves and derive explicit expressions for optimal rationing levels. We find that the policy of doing the better of not restricting availability at the clearance price or not offering the product at the clearance price is typically near optimal. Our analysis also suggests that rationing—although sometimes offering considerable benefit over allowing unrestricted availability in the clearance period—may allow the seller to obtain only a small fraction of the optimal revenue when the prices are chosen optimally without rationing. We extend the analysis to cases where the capacity is constraining and obtain similar results.     

Responsive Pricing Newsvendor Networks with Discretionary Commonality

Discretionary commonality is a form of operational flexibility used in multi‐product manufacturing environments. Consider a case where a firm produces and sells two products. Without discretionary commonality, each product is made through a unique combination of input and production capacity. With discretionary commonality, one of the inputs could be used for producing both products, and one of the production capacities could be used to process different inputs for producing one of the products. In the latter case, the manager can decide, upon the realization of uncertainty, not only the quantities for different products (outputs) but also the means of transforming inputs into outputs. The objective of this study is to understand how the firm's value, its inventory levels for inputs and capacity levels for resources are affected by the demand characteristics and market conditions. In pursuing this research, we extend Van Mieghem and Rudi ( 2002 )'s newsvendor network model to allow for the modeling of product interdependence, demand functions, random shocks, and firm's ex post pricing decision. Applying the general framework to the network with discretionary commonality, we discover that inventory and capacity management can be quite different compared to a network where commonality is non‐discretionary. Among other results, we find that as the degree of product substitution increases, the relative need for discretionary commonality increases; as the market correlation increases, while the firm's value may increase for complementary products, the discretionary common input decreases but the dedicated input increases. Numerical study shows that discretionary flexibility and responsive pricing are strategic substitutes.     

DETERMINING THE APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT RATES IN PURE CAPITAL RATIONING

This paper proposes an interpretation of the pure capital rationing problem as it is faced by many managers in decentralized firms in which budgets serve as the principal means of control. It is argued that the appropriate objective for situations such as these is the maximization of either undiscounted earnings over the planning horizon or total value of the investments at the horizon. When either objective function is used in conjunction with the frequently encountered linear programming models for the capital rationing problem, shadow prices result which give rise to discount rates that will reproduce the optimal solution using discounted cash flow as a criterion. These results are then used as a means for clarifying several confusing and misleading statements that have appeared in the literature.     

银行股权关联、银行业竞争与民营企业融资约束

本文以公司参股银行为视角,在行为金融理论、企业组织理论与信贷融资理论相融合的分析框架下,构建基于异质预期的信贷配置模型,探讨了银行股权关联和银行业竞争影响民营企业融资约束的传导机理。以A股民营企业2006~2013年的数据为例,运用Heckman两阶段回归等方法,我们发现:参股银行和提高银行业竞争性均能显著缓解民营企业的融资约束,参股比例越高该效应越强,且两者在缓解融资约束方面存在替代关系。但进一步的分析显示,银行股权关联对资本配置的影响具有两面性:即银行股权关联所带来的融资优势能够减少因资金短缺导致的投资不足,但代理问题的存在也可能导致银行股权关联被部分异化,使其对于资本配置的正向作用减弱甚至被异化为利益寻租的工具。上述结论既丰富了委托代理理论与公司财务理论的相关研究成果,也有助于我们深入理解银行股权关联的"正面效果"和"负面效果"。     

零售商的资金约束对协调契约的影响分析

在零售商促销下,探讨了零售商的资金约束对使用收益共享契约和回购契约协调供应链的影响。分析了零售商拥有不同运营资金下供应链的契约协调问题,研究表明：在运营资金相对充裕下,收益共享契约不仅能协调供应链,且能实现渠道收益的任意分配,但回购契约不能实现渠道收益的任意分配,除非运营资金非常充裕;在运营资金不足下,收益共享契约仍有可能协调供应链,但回购契约不能协调供应链。讨论了资金的时间价值对两个契约协调供应链的影响,结果表明：在回购契约下,资金利率越大,具有资金约束零售商的供应链被协调的可能性越大,但资金利率对收益共享契约没有影响。最后提供了数值分析。研究中得到一些管理启示,可为资金约束供应链的协调管理提供理论借鉴。     

基于CAPM的BOT项目“有限追索权”融资决策模型

为研究BOT项目有限追索权融资中贷款资金与股本资金在贷方和项目公司之间合理分配问题(即BOT最优融资结构),本文考虑项目公司和贷方根据CAPM方法进行投资决策,通过分析它们投资策略在利益上的冲突关系而建立一个BOT融资模型,并且用博弈论方法研究模型最优解的存在性及其性质。研究结果不仅为项目公司和贷方提供了对BOT项目融资决策的理论方法,而且为政府对BOT项目的管理提供了重要的理论工具。     

基于资金流服务商的供应链资金运作能力研究

高效的资金运作能力是决定一个企业乃至一条供应链成功的关键因素。本文提出了资金流服务商这一概念并重点分析了它所具备的两种资金运作能力:资金回收期压缩能力和采购资金占用压缩能力。在一个单周期的报童模型中,研究了资金流服务商通过给制造商提供这两种资金流服务能够给供应链整体收益带来的增大以及在这个过程中二者的利益分配问题。通过进一步比较这两种资金运作能力,验证了各自对于供应链的重要程度。     

Service Package Switching in Hotel Revenue Management Systems

Revenue Management Systems (RMS) are commonly used in the hotel industry to maximize revenues in the short term. The forecasting‐allocation module is a key tactical component of a hotel RMS. Forecasting involves estimating demand for service packages across all stayover nights in a planning horizon. A service package is a unique combination of physical room, amenities, room price, and advance purchase restrictions. Allocation involves parsing the room inventory among these service packages to maximize revenues. Previous research and existing revenue management systems assume the demand for a service package to be independent of which service packages are available for sale. We develop a new forecasting‐allocation approach that explicitly accounts for this dependence. We compare the performance of the new approach against a baseline approach using a realistic hotel RMS simulation. The baseline approach reflects previous research and existing industry practice. The new approach produces an average revenue increase of at least 16% across scenarios that reflect existing industry conditions.     

认知偏差、债务政策选择偏好和资本结构税收效应

本文针对管理者认知偏差对其债务政策选择的影响问题进行研究,通过建立认知偏差影响下的最优资本结构决策模型,从行为金融学的角度研究了债务政策选择的税收效应,并以中国上市公司2006-2009年的数据为样本,使用多元回归分析等方法对相关结论进行了实证检验。研究表明:上市公司的债务政策受到了认知偏差的影响,即随着财务困境成本的不断增大,上市公司对其变化的敏感性不断降低;认知偏差严重时,上市公司会选择过度保守负债或过度积极负债,导致最优资本结构与税率无关;认知偏差不严重时,上市公司会选择适度负债,且负债水平与税率正相关。结论表明中国上市公司需要更为客观地评价财务困境成本,更为理性地利用负债的税收收益,尽可能避免认知偏差对企业价值的损害。     

Capacity rationing in rental systems with two customer classes and batch arrivals

Service differentiation is an emerging method to improve profit and to better serve high-priority customers. Such an approach has recently been introduced by one of Europe's leading rail cargo companies. Under this approach, customers can choose between classic and premium services. Premium service is priced above classic service and premium customers receive a service guarantee which classic customers do not receive. The company has to decide under which conditions it should ration its fleet capacity to classic customers in order to increase service of premium customers. We model such a situation as a batch-arrival queuing loss system. We describe the model, solve it optimally, and derive quantities of interest such as service probabilities. We further analyze it by performing numerical experiments based on the data from the company that motivated our research. We show that the potential of capacity rationing can be substantial in situations like the one we analyzed. We also derive conditions under which rationing is especially beneficial, such as under high unit fleet holding costs or in the presence of batch arrivals compared to single arrivals.     

Inventory Rationing in a Make‐to‐Stock System with Batch Production and Lost Sales

We address an inventory rationing problem in a lost sales make‐to‐stock (MTS) production system with batch ordering and multiple demand classes. Each production order contains a single batch of a fixed lot size and the processing time of each batch is random. Assuming that there is at most one order outstanding at any point in time, we first address the case with the general production time distribution. We show that the optimal order policy is characterized by a reorder point and the optimal rationing policy is characterized by time‐dependent rationing levels. We then approximate the production time distribution with a phase‐type distribution and show that the optimal policy can be characterized by a reorder point and state‐dependent rationing levels. Using the Erlang production time distribution, we generalize the model to a tandem MTS system in which there may be multiple outstanding orders. We introduce a state‐transformation approach to perform the structural analysis and show that both the reorder point and rationing levels are state dependent. We show the monotonicity of the optimal reorder point and rationing levels for the outstanding orders, and generate new theoretical and managerial insights from the research findings.     

A modified internal rate of return model for capital rationing in project selection

The ability of a company to finance viable projects depends on the availability of funds, and this too is a function of time, interest rate and risk factors among others. Factors such as these would lead to limited fund availability, which would necessitate capital rationing. Linear/integer programming and profitability index are often used to tackle this problem for optimal solution. A third approach utilizing a modified internal rate of return (IRR) is proposed. To overcome the difficulty usually encountered in calculating IRR, a small program coded in BASIC is presented. Even though discounting the cash outflows beyond the initial year should have been ideal in the linear programming formulation, this paper casts doubts as to the validity of the solution derived from it, as different discount rates seem to produce very conflicting results from the same set of investment options. This is also applicable to profitability index. While efforts are being made to correct these lapses, the modified IRR model has been found useful in arriving at an optimum solution both for the single-period as well as for the multi-stage situation.     

Robust Resource Allocation Decisions in Resource‐Constrained Projects*

The well‐known deterministic resource‐constrained project scheduling problem involves the determination of a predictive schedule (baseline schedule or pre‐schedule) of the project activities that satisfies the finish–start precedence relations and the renewable resource constraints under the objective of minimizing the project duration. This baseline schedule serves as a baseline for the execution of the project. During execution, however, the project can be subject to several types of disruptions that may disturb the baseline schedule. Management must then rely on a reactive scheduling procedure for revising or reoptimizing the baseline schedule. The objective of our research is to develop procedures for allocating resources to the activities of a given baseline schedule in order to maximize its stability in the presence of activity duration variability. We propose three integer programming–based heuristics and one constructive procedure for resource allocation. We derive lower bounds for schedule stability and report on computational results obtained on a set of benchmark problems.     

项目投资经济效益评价原理与方法研究

本文在研究项目投资经济效益的概念与基本表达式的基础上,建立了项目投资关联优化模型,并通过实证分析,证明了该模型的科学合理性。     

Dynamic Customer Acquisition and Retention Management

In consulting, finance, and other service industries, customers represent a revenue stream, and must be acquired and retained over time. In this paper, we study the resource allocation problem of a profit maximizing service firm that dynamically allocates its resources toward acquiring new clients and retaining unsatisfied existing ones. The interaction between acquisition and retention in our model is reflected in the cash constraint on total expected spending on acquisition and retention in each period. We formulate this problem as a dynamic program in which the firm makes decisions in both acquisition and retention after observing the current size of its customer base and receiving information about customers in danger of attrition, and we characterize the structure of the optimal acquisition and retention strategy. We show that when the firm's customer base size is relatively low, the firm should spend heavily on acquisition and try to retain every unhappy customer. However, as its customer base grows, the firm should gradually shift its emphasis from acquisition to retention, and it should also aim to strike a balance between acquisition and retention while spending its available resources. Finally, when the customer base is large enough, it may be optimal for the firm to begin spending less in both acquisition and retention. We also extend our analysis to situations where acquisition or retention success rate, as a function of resources allocation, is uncertain and show that the optimal acquisition and retention policy can be surprisingly complex. However, we develop an effective heuristic for that case. This paper aims to provide service managers some analytical principles and effective guidelines on resource allocation between these two significant activities based on their firm's customer base size.     

现金配售制度下新股申购投资者的真实首日收益研究

以申购资金的真实首日收益(考虑中签率)为研究对象,分析其合理性及影响因素,并以1998～2007年现金配售发行的A股IPO公司为样本进行实证检验.研究发现,新股申购投资者并未获得高额的真实首日超额收益,一级市场过度的噪声申购需求导致收益降低,二级市场噪声需求引起的价格偏离导致收益提高;同时,较高的发行市盈率和较大的公司规模可抑制噪声申购需求而提高收益.     

农户资源禀赋与农业产出关系研究——基于信贷配给数据的分组讨论

本文首先把信贷配给分成数量配给、交易成本配给和风险配给三类,然后利用转换回归模型实证研究了信贷配给下农户资源禀赋与农业产出的关系。研究发现,在受到信贷约束的农户中,除了受到数量配给外,还有近四分之一的农户受到交易成本配给或风险配给。受到信贷约束农户的农业产出更加依赖于农户的资源禀赋。本文建议应根据农户不同信贷配给类型采取相应政策,以解决农户所受的信贷配给约束。     

新股发行、盈余管理与高管薪酬激励

理论研究认为基于会计信息的高管薪酬制度安排是高管实施盈余管理的诱因之一。本文以新股发行过程为特定的研究背景,实证考察发行公司会计信息对高管薪酬激励产生的直接影响。通过对我国资本市场2001-2007年的新股发行公司进行检验,结果表明:第一,在控制其他因素影响下,公司高管通过盈余管理显著提高了货币薪酬水平。第二,实施高管股权激励的发行公司与没有实施高管股权激励的发行公司相比,前者现金流量的平均水平显著较低,而操控性应计的平均水平显著较高,表明实施高管股权激励的公司很可能普遍存在收益增加的盈余管理行为。进一步的回归分析表明高管的盈余管理行为显著增加了其股权激励价值。近几年上市公司高管薪酬的高速增长以及相关约束机制的缺乏很可能是导致这一现象的主要原因。     

Strategic Capacity Management When Customers Have Boundedly Rational Expectations

In retailing industries, such as apparel, sporting goods, customer electronics, and appliances, many firms deploy sophisticated modeling and optimization software to conduct dynamic pricing in response to uncertain and fluctuating market conditions. However, the possibility of markdown pricing creates an incentive for customers to strategize over the timing of their purchases. How should a retailing firm optimally account for customer behavior when making its pricing and stocking/capacity decisions? For example, is it optimal for a firm to create rationing risk by deliberately under stocking products? In this study, we develop a stylized modeling framework to answer these questions. In our model, customers strategize over the timing of their purchases. However, customers have boundedly rational expectations in the sense of anecdotal reasoning about the firm's fill rate, i.e., they have to rely on anecdotes, past experiences, or word‐of‐mouth to infer the firm's fill rate. In our modeling framework, we distinguish two settings: (i) capacity commitment, where the firm commits to its capacity level in the long run, or (ii) the firm dynamically changes it in each season. For both settings, within the simplest form of anecdotal reasoning, we prove that strategic capacity rationing is not optimal independent of customer risk preferences. Then, using a general form of anecdotal reasoning, we provide sufficient conditions for capacity rationing to be optimal for both settings, respectively. We show that the result of strategic capacity rationing being suboptimal is fairly robust to different valuation distributions and utility functions, heterogeneous sample size, and price optimization.     

Assembly Line Balancing with Resource Dependent Task Times*

Paced assembly lines are widely used in repetitive manufacturing applications. Most previous research on the design of paced lines has assumed that each task along the line can be performed by only one worker (or a fixed number of workers). In many cases, however, task duration times may be reduced by increasing the number of workers or changing the equipment assigned to work stations. Thus, the problem becomes one of assigning resource alternatives (e.g., workers and/or equipment) and tasks to work stations to minimize total cost for a desired production rate. For this problem, we present three procedures. The first formulates the problem as a shortest path problem and guarantees optimality. The second and third are heuristic adaptations of the shortest path procedure that are capable of solving large problems. The procedures are compared in terms of solution quality and computation time on a set of 128 randomly generated problems for which optimal solutions could be found. Our simulation results indicate that the choice of procedure depends on problem complexity and resource costs.