Settler Welfare on Tropical Forest Frontiers in Latin America

Because of urgent concerns to protect tropical forests in Latin America, social science research on them has been generally ‘forest-centred.’ This forest-centred approach considers the people who inhabit the frontier as agents of land use change and forest conversion focusing on how their actions affect forest cover. Welfare indicators for forest frontier populations (income, education, health, access to basic services) are addressed only incidentally in terms of how they influence land use. ‘People’ centred research, which asks questions from the perspective of human welfare such as, ‘Are frontier settlers better off than they were before?’ or ‘What kind of socio-economic impacts does frontier life have on the people who live there?” and “How can their lives be improved?,” has been less common. As a result, we know much about the impacts, especially adverse impacts, which settler activity on the frontier has on forest cover but little about the impacts settlement has on settlers, themselves. This paper attempts to shift discussion towards these kinds of questions and a more people centred approach by reviewing existing research that directly addresses the welfare of settlers in tropical forest frontiers in Latin America. We also review research that touches on settler welfare by considering the concept of ‘sustainability’ on the forest frontier and stakes out a comprise position between ‘forest’ and ‘people’ centred questions or concerns. Settler welfare is defined primarily in economic terms. Household income, wealth, and agricultural productivity are interpreted a proxies for welfare in most cases. We also consider welfare in terms of access to basic services (health and education) and living conditions. We particularly consider how settler welfare indicators may change over time on the frontier. Tropical forests, defined as tropical, moist, broadleaf forests, are the main ecological setting of interest. These forests are generally the largest unoccupied areas in many Latin American countries and are thus, also the main ‘agricultural frontier’ or areas of new settlement by small farmers.     

Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges

What is the role of population in driving deforestation? This question was put forth as a discussion topic in the cyberseminar hosted by Population Environment Research Network (PERN) in Spring, 2003. Contributors from diverse backgrounds weighed in on the discussion, citing key factors in the population-deforestation nexus and suggesting further courses of action and research. Participants explored themes of their own choosing, with many coming to the forefront. Scale, time, and place-based effects were cited as areas in need of particular attention. Consumption patterns as the mechanism for spurring deforestation were discussed, drawing attention to the differential patterns associated with urban vs. rural demands on forest resources and land. The applicability of the IPAT formula and the influence of its component parts, affluence and technology, when operating in tandem with population, was debated. The relation of demographic factors to these pathways was critically examined. Institutional and governmental influence, such as infrastructure and policies affecting access and incentives, the valuation of resources, and institutional failures such as mismanagement and corruption emerged as a crucial set of factors. This article synthesizes the critical debates in the population-deforestation literature, makes suggestions for future paths of research, and discussed possible policy and direct action initiatives.     

Population growth,changing agricultural practices,and environmental degradation in Zaire

This paper examines linkages between the demographic changes taking place in Zaire, particularly overall population growth and rapid urbanization, changes in agricultural practices, and related environmental degradation. Pressures to feed Zaire's rapidly increasing urban population, which fall on a rural population that has been growing relatively slowly in recent years, as well as population growth and increased population density in certain areas of the country, have resulted in changes in agricultural practices that are described in the paper. These changes in turn are leading to declining soil fertility, deforestation, and degradation of the natural resource base. Given present technology and the state of Zaire's economy, the changes in agricultural practices that have emerged in response to population growth, increased population density, and growth in demand for food production do not appear to be sustainable in the long run.     

Population and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: a mediating perspective and a mixed-method analysis

As progress is made in understanding the dynamics of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC), arguments that view population pressure as one of the major factors affecting forest destruction continue to be framed. Following the advances in the field of population-environment studies, this paper contends that a full account of the complex web of drivers involved in tropical deforestation needs to go beyond demographics per se. This paper examines the contribution of the ??population factor?? as a cause of deforestation in Machadinho D??Oeste, Rond?nia, Brazilian Amazonia, an area with significant small-scale farming. Conceptually, the paper shows that socioeconomic status and mediating factors (i.e., education, managerial skills, previous rural experience, integration into the local, and regional contexts), and attitudes and behaviors toward the land parcel development mediate migrants?? relationships with the local environment. The analysis combines multiple data sources (i.e., demographic census, household survey, land-cover maps, in-depth interviews) and analytical approaches (i.e., fuzzy sets statistics, remote-sensing/GIS analysis, interpretivist qualitative assessment) to examine the complex interrelationships between LUCC and human population.     

Population control and politics

At all times and places population and resources must be kept in balance with each other if a high, or at least acceptable, quality of life is to be maintained. Evidence is presented that thinkers and men and women of affairs have been aware of these necessities from time immemorial and that the ancients invented most of the basic concepts of modern population ecology, at leastin embryo. This task is a problem of social control, the central process in all societies. If society's controllers and their institutions are aware, intelligent, flexible, and suitably motivated, there is no reason why most problems of population, development, and pollution should not be solved and then kept permanently in check. This must involve politics, there is no way out. As Aristotle pointed out, "Man is a political animal," and it is only through politicking that we can set up, maintain, change, and generally operate our social control systems. Deeply dysfunctional attitudes towards freedom and control—especially population control—are described and analysedvia a ten-stage argument, and helpful proposals put forward. The function which scientists in general and social scientists in particular can perform in helping human-kind to solve its complex and manifold problems is heavily stressed. Scientists in general should not become politicians, but politicians in general should become numerate and "ecolate"—to quote Garrett Hardin, and start to think more deeply and longer-term. To focus practical thinking the concepts "survival-theory" and the "principle of minimum innovation" are set forth and a final plea made for the necessity and therefore moral legitimacy of controlling numbers as well as resources. If population control seems slow in returning—it used to be the norm—recent events in Eastern Europe give good grounds for optimism about the fluidity of both human values and political institutions.     

The population,agriculture, and environment nexus in Latin America: country-level evidence from the latter half of the twentieth century

Unprecedented population growth and migration accompanied equally unprecedented land use and land cover change in Latin America during the latter decades of the twentieth century. Country-level data are examined with bivariate statistics to determine relationships between changes in population patterns and land use (agriculture and forest cover) from 1961 to 2001. In South America, large forest areas were eliminated during the period, while exceptionally high rates of forest clearing were ubiquitous in the Central America/Caribbean region. These environmental changes accompanied dissimilar initial population densities and different effects of population change on agriculture. While interacting with a host of political, socio-economic, and geographic processes, it appears that both Malthusian and Boserupian demographic processes were important drivers of deforestation. Given continued, though slowing, population growth, increased urban consumption, and future land use constraints, policy makers face myriad challenges in advancing sustainable agriculture-population dynamics in Latin America.     

Challenging Neo‐Malthusian Deforestation Analyses in West Africa's Dynamic Forest Landscapes

Many influential analyses of West Africa take it for granted that ‘original’ forest cover has progressively been converted and savannized during the twentieth century by growing populations. By testing these assumptions against historical evidence, exemplified for Ghana and Ivory Coast, this article shows that these neo‐Malthusian deforestation narratives badly misrepresent people–forest relationships. They obscure important nonlinear dynamics, as well as widespread anthropogenic forest expansion and landscape enrichment. These processes are better captured, in broad terms, by a neo‐Boserupian perspective on population–forest dynamics. However, comprehending variations in locale‐specific trajectories of change requires fuller appreciation of social differences in environmental and resource values, of how diverse institutions shape resource access and control, and of ecological variability and path dependency in how landscapes respond to use. The second half of the article présents and illustrates such a “landscape structuretion” perspective through case studies from the forest–savanna transition zones of Ghana and Guinea.     

A Quantitative Investigation of the Population-Land Inequality-Land Clearance Nexus

This paper provides a quantitative investigation of the population-land inequality-land clearance nexus. Drawing on the literature on farmer optimization behaviour, the study formalizes and empirically tests a model of population-induced agricultural land clearance. The model makes several assumptions about this process: (a) The rate at which agricultural land is brought into production due to rising population pressures accelerates with the level of inequality in access to land, (b) Egalitarian systems have a greater capacity to absorb rising numbers of people per unit of land area and, thus, will have lower rates of agricultural land clearance than higher ones and (c) Irrespective of its degree of egalitarianism, the capacity of any system to hold people in one place will eventually break down once a critical population threshold is reached. Due to their lower population absorptive capacity, this level will be reached sooner under unequal systems of land distribution. Thus, the model also hypothesizes that the stimulatory impact of population growth on the demand for new land will exhibit a non-linear threshold pattern. For the farmer, the decision to clear a new plot of land will reflect these population-inequality interactions: Earnings from farming in settled areas will tend to fall as population densities and inequality in access to land increase. Time series results confirm that rural population growth is a significant factor driving agricultural land clearance in many of the 59 developing countries of our sample. Results also suggest that this rate of clearance is largest in countries with highly inegalitarian patterns of distribution. In contrast, cross-sectional regression results do not suggest any direct role for land inequality in population-agricultural land use outcomes. Contrary to the models assumption that this relationship should follow a non-linear threshold pattern, cross-sectional results also find no evidence that the absorptive capacity of highly densely populated land systems has been reached on average. However, they do provide support for an indirect linear relationship: Population induced agricultural land clearance is significantly magnified as inequality in access to land increases. Drawing on the empirics of the growth-inequality literature, the study suggests that this magnifying role may be linked to inequalitys impact on the assets of the poor. That is, by undermining the capacity of the rural poor to make productive investments in the land base, inequality in land distribution mediates population pressures in a way that affects both the quality and quantity of assets available to the poor to raise incomes, invest in skills accumulation, and spur demand in the rural economy as a whole.     

Family planning and deforestation: evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon

Despite an abundant literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has examined the forest cover impacts of family planning use—a key determinant of population growth rates in many developing countries. Using data from a panel survey of farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper explores whether family planning use affects changes in forest cover. After controlling for household life cycle effects, family planning use among female heads of farm households did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Rather, shorter-term drivers of forest change tend to be associated with household life cycles and shifts in production and consumption. However, family planning will continue to improve development and health outcomes for women by reducing unwanted fertility and may offer longer-term environmental benefits.     

Environmental Refugees

There are fast-growing numbers of people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems. In their desperation, these environmental refugees—as they are increasingly coming to be known and as they are termed in this paper—feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere, however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have fled their countries, many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis, having little hope of a foreseeable return.     

农业人口流动与农村土地流转

农村土地制度在我国农村经济制度体系中起着基本的作用,而农业人口的流动是我国实现城乡一体化过程中的必然现象,这两者之间存在着很强的互动关系。因此,在我国城乡经济发展过程中,一方面农村土地制度变迁推动和影响农业人口的流动,另一方面农业人口的流动也迫切要求我国的农村土地制度进行相应的变革。     

Agricultural settlement and soil quality in the Brazilian Amazon

This paper discusses the implications of poor or non-existent information on soil quality, at the proper scale, during the planning and implementation of settlement projects in the Brazilian Amazon. Based on data from the Machadinho settlement project, Rond?nia, we show that most settlers had no knowledge about the agricultural capability of the area, did not receive technical information, could not afford agricultural inputs, planted inadequate crops in the early years of occupation, and did not manage to stay in their plot for a long period of time. Satellite images indicated that patches of land with good soil quality were not necessarily the first to be utilized. Inadequately planned settlements face many challenges (poor soil being one of them) and are likely to result in land turnover, conversion of land into pasture, land concentration among wealthier persons, invasion of areas by poorer people, and deforestation, defying the main purpose of agrarian reform.     

Population and Deforestation in Costa Rica

This paper addresses a central debate in research and policy on population and environment, namely the extent to which rapid population growth is associated with the massive deforestation currently underway in the tropics. We utilize the experience of Costa Rica during the last forty years to illustrate what the main issues are, discuss the history of deforestation in that country, and present results from conventional regression methods and from the application of spatial analyses. These analyses enable us to estimate the magnitude of the relation between population and deforestation and to identify the factors that are responsible for the linkage between them.     

The effects of density and urban residence on voter turnout

The rate of voting in cities of the U.S. tends to be lower than one would expect when compared to nationwide voter participation rates. The hypothesis in question here is whether high population density and urbanness have a dampening effect on the likelihood of voting by persons living under such conditions. This question is examined by relating county voting rates in recent U.S. Presidential elections to various types of county population density, while controlling for fifteen potentially contaminating variables. The hypothesis that population density reduces voter turnout cannot be rejected on the basis of the test. There is a small but significant negative relationship between the press of population — represented by the population per square mile and urbanness — and voter turnout, even when the various control variables are present. More immediate types of density, such as housing unit and room density, appear to be insignificant. Possible reasons for the results are discussed.     

Computing experiences of young adults: An empirical analysis

The High School Beyond study provides the data for an analysis of the computing experiences of young adults. Five types of computing experiences-general, personal and recreational, job, general educational and high school computer usage are examined with respect to selected socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The results suggest that computing experience is related to gender, race, SES, father's education and family income. When controlling for gender, several relationships are modified.The world is entering a new period. The wealth of nations, which depended upon land, labor, and capital during its agricultural and industrial phases — depended upon natural resources, the accumulation of money and even upon weaponry — will come in the future to depend upon information, knowledge and intelligence (Feigenbaum and McCordick, 1983; 14).     

Migration and mobility on the Amazon frontier

Migration patterns within tropical forest frontiers are highly complex and multidirectional, with movements to, from, and within these regions likely driven by different macro and micro factors. As such, several different conceptual models have been suggested to explain these dynamics. This paper uses data from a panel survey of households in a frontier region of the western Brazilian Amazon along with “second hand” reports on where people have moved to evaluate these conceptual models. Our rich data set, collected over nearly a decade from hundreds of households, allows us to compare households who arrived at different ages to assess predictions of the life cycle hypothesis; those who have been in the state (or on their properties) for different numbers of years to investigate the turnover hypothesis; those who arrived with different levels of capital to examine path dependence as suggested by conceptual models that focus on wealth dynamics; and the destination and purpose for moves from and within the study region to look for evidence of the frontier expansion hypothesis. We do not find any evidence for the turnover hypothesis, perhaps due to the favorable biophysical and market conditions in our study region. However, patterns in this region are consistent with all of the other conceptual models, reflecting the overlapping theoretical foundations of the models, and the complexity of migration and mobility on the frontier.     

Population density,urban centrality,and agricultural intensification in Jordan

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where centrality is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1992 Meeting of the Southern Demographics Association, Charleston, SC, 15–17 October 1992.     

The ideology of population control in the UN draft plan for Cairo

This paper examines the influence of population control ideology on the draft plan for the UN Cairo Conference on Population and Development. It is argued that this draft plan can only be fully understood in the context of the recent history of the population control movement and of the empirical reality of population control in particular countries. The paper focuses on the origins of the ideology of population control in the eugenics movement initially, and more recently in organisations such as International Planned Parenthood Federation. The role of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in promoting an incremental approach towards the wider acceptance of population control since the first intergovernmental conference on population in Bucharest in 1974, is outlined. Despite the serious loss of credibility for the UN, through the association of the UNFPA with the Chinese population control programme — the most coercive programme of its type in history — the UN in the draft plan for Cairo continues to promote the ideology of population control. This paper argues for the need to develop a more positive model of development, which acknowledges the complementarity between the lack of development of poorer countries and their potential for significant progress, and the overdevelopment of industrialised regions, whose future growth is increasingly based on intense competition for shrinking markets.This article is based on a paper, presented to the International Geographical Union Congress at Prague, 21–27 August 1994.