On the dynamic measurement of economic openness

The empirical relationship between economic openness and economic performance is much debated in the economic literature. No definitive conclusions seem to be reached yet, part of the problem being the very measurement of economic openness of a national economy. In their article in the Journal of Policy Modeling, Ruíz Estrada & Yap (2006) propose a new method to measure economic openness and to empirically assess the openness–growth nexus as a new tool for policy-makers: the Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM-Model). The authors claim: (i) that their method is different from and more flexible than existing empirical methods, (ii) that higher levels of openness do not lead to income growth, and (iii) that customs unions perform better than free trade areas. This short article challenges the three claims of the authors.     

Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt during the period 1960–2001 within a trivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework (investment being the additional variable). We employ four different measures of financial development and apply Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error-correction (VEC) methodology. Our results strongly support the view that financial development and economic growth are mutually causal, that is, causality is bi-directional. Furthermore, we find that financial development causes economic growth through both increasing resources for investment and enhancing efficiency. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that the Egyptian government launched in 1991 and to improve the efficiency of the financial system to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long-term economic growth.     

中国价格贸易条件与经济增长关系的实证研究

文章在对我国价格贸易条件与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究后指出:我国价格贸易条件具有持续恶化的变动趋势;我国价格贸易条件与经济增长之间具有长期、稳定的协整关系;我国经济增长无论在长、短期上,对价格贸易条件均有显著的Granger影响,而价格贸易条件变化对经济增长的长、短期Granger影响并不显著.     

Industrial structure and economic fluctuation—Evidence from China

Industrial structure evolves with economic development. Since the reform and opening up of the economy in 1978, China has undergone rapid economic growth and dramatic industrial restructuring, with the proportion of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry changed respectively from 28%, 48% and 24% of GDP in 1978 to 11%, 49% and 40% in 2008. Using panel data from 31 provinces in the past three decades, this paper empirically examined the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure. Based on results from unit root test, cointegration test, and Granger causality test, this paper concluded that the two variables are order-1 integrated, short-run economic fluctuation causes industrial structure disproportion, while a long-run bidirectional causal relationship exists between industry structure disproportion and economic aggregate fluctuation. This paper also investigated the determinants of China's industrial structure and found that influential factors include per capita GDP, domestic consumption propensity, urban–rural disparity, scale of the labor force and capital stock, property right protection, and administrative effectiveness.     

The effects of social and political openness on the welfare state in 18 OECD countries

Studies examining the relationship between globalisation and the welfare state tend to focus on the effects of economic dimensions of globalisation, the extent to which a country is part of the world market. Globalisation also has social and political dimensions and the effects of these on welfare states – in terms of social security transfers and generosity – are studied in this article. Data from the KOF Index of Globalisation , the OECD Historical Statistics and the Comparative Welfare Entitlements Dataset are used to analyse the effects of social and political openness on the welfare states of 18 countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development between 1970 and 2000. The analyses show that social security transfers and generosity have increased less in countries with the highest increase in social openness and that the welfare state is not affected by political openness.     

Wagner’s law vs. Keynes’ hypothesis in very different countries (Armenia and Spain)

There is considerable controversy in the economic literature concerning whether particular government expenditures have an impact on economic growth. This study analyzes the macroeconomic magnitude of government expenditures in Armenia and Spain and evaluates whether there exists a causal relationship between government expenditures and economic growth, and vice versa (Keynes’ hypothesis and Wagner’s law). The study employs the VAR methodology to analyze annual data for the years 1996–2014. By utilizing Granger causality tests, the study reveals whether the government expenditures are a significant factor in economic growth in short-term perspective. Finally, IRF and FEVD tests are applied to estimate the effects of a change in particular government expenditures on GDP for twelve year time horizon. This study validates the hypothesis that, irrespective of size and nature of the economy (Armenia vs. Spain), some public expenditures (e.g. healthcare) positively contribute to the growth of the economy, while social protection in both countries is negatively related to GDP.     

对俄贸易在黑龙江经济增长中的作用的实证研究

对外贸易在经济增长中的作用一直以来都是经济学界研究的热点问题。本文利用1995—2007年黑龙江对俄贸易及GDP的年度经济数据,使用计量经济学的方法研究了对俄贸易在黑龙江经济增长中的作用。实证结果表明:在黑龙江经济增长中,对俄贸易的促进作用是显著的;进口对于经济增长的促进作用大于出口。     

Interest rate determination in India: domestic and external factors

This paper examines the determinants of interest rates in India in the post-reform period in the context of a model that takes into account both domestic and external factors. The short- and long-run behavior of interest rates (commercial paper rate, 3-month Treasury bill rate, 12-month Treasury bill rate) is studied. The empirical results are robust across interest rates and indicate the existence of a cointegrating relationship between real interest rates, real government expenditure, real money supply, foreign interest rates and the forward premium. The estimations also show that movements in interest rates are Granger caused by both domestic and external factors.     

略论中印经贸关系若干问题

中印经贸关系是两国关系中最具积极意义的领域,但随着两国经贸交流的快速发展,也产生了各种问题,其中较为突出的包括贸易非均衡问题和政治因素对经贸关系的干扰等.克服目前的障碍需要双方既有处理眼前问题的合适措施,也需要建立具有战略前瞻性的长远看法.     

Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia

This paper examined an empirical investigation of whether financial development can boost economic growth in Tunisia. We used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to assess the finance-growth relation taking private credit, value traded and issuing bank's securities on the financial market as financial development indicators.The empirical results showed that the domestic credit to private sector has a positive effect on the economic growth suggesting that the financial development is a driver of a long term economic growth, but subject to a financial fragility at the short run. Moreover, this study confirmed the view of bidirectional relationship between credit and economic growth. However, we found that neither the stock market development nor the intervention of banks in the stock market had robust and positive effects on the economic growth. Thus, Tunisia is recommended to accelerate in priority the financial reforms of the Tunisian stock market in order to contribute to mobilize savings and promote long run economic growth.     

社会工作者介入工会工作的可行性及对策

工会工作是我国社会事务管理与服务的重要领域,创新工会工作模式,加强工会人才队伍建设离不开社会工作者。本文以笔者的工会实习经历为基础,从社会工作理论视角和实务方法两个方面入手,探索社工介入工会工作的可行性,并提出合理的介入对策。     

东部产业转移背景下江西加工贸易发展的机遇及挑战

沿海地区的发展实践证明,加工贸易是区域经济特别是"后发经济体"融入国际分工、促进制造业升级、加速工业化的重要途径(曾巧生,2007)。进入新世纪以来,随着东部地区产业结构调整升级,加工工业转移速度不断加快。江西作为东部近邻,具有独特的区位优势,可以抓住这一机遇;同时,江西承接东部产业转移也面临着一系列的挑战。江西应当采取措施,紧紧抓住优势,努力应对挑战,积极承接东部产业转移。     

Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test

This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between savings and economic growth in South Africa during the period 1950–2005. The study was motivated by the low and declining savings rate currently prevailing in South Africa, on the one hand, and the dwindling level of economic growth experienced in the country during the 1990s, on the other. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study incorporates foreign capital inflow as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between savings and economic growth—thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework. Using the cointegration-based error–correction mechanism, the study finds a bi-directional causality between savings and economic growth to prevail in the short run and a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to savings to dominate in the long run. On balance, the study finds growth-led savings to predominate in South Africa. The results also show that foreign capital inflow and savings Granger-cause each other, while economic growth Granger causes foreign capital inflow. The study, therefore, recommends that in the short run, South African policies should be geared towards achieving both higher savings and economic growth in order to boost investors’ confidence and to attract foreign capital inflow. However, in the long run, the country should shift its focus towards achieving higher economic growth, in order to boost the domestic savings and to sustain a steady flow of foreign capital investment.     

The role of deficit and debt in financing growth in West Africa

Empirical literature on debt–growth nexus and deficit-growth nexus indicate that government debt and fiscal deficit could have negative effects on economic growth after a certain threshold level. However, the impacts of debt and deficit on economic growth via the financial sector have not been thoroughly explored. Thus, this study examines the effects of debt and deficit on finance–growth nexus in West African region. It employs empirical strategies that account for various economic and econometrics issues. Evidence from the study reveals that the impact of financial development on growth varies with the levels of debt and deficit. Specifically, the marginal effects of financial development on growth turn negative when debt and deficit exceed the threshold levels of 48.6% and −13.5% of GDP, respectively. The implication of this study is that the financial sector is one of the channels through which debt and deficit exert their influences on economic growth. Thus, an increase in financial development would not produce the desirable long-run economic benefits unless it is accompanied by a reduction in government debt and fiscal deficit. Based on the findings, the study makes some policy recommendations.     

Government size and economic growth in Taiwan: A threshold regression approach

The Armey curve developed by [Armey, R. (1995). The freedom revolution. Washington, DC: Rognery Publishing Co.] and [Vedder, R. K., & Gallaway, L. E. (1998). Government size and economic growth. Joint Economic Committee] demonstrates that there is a non-linear relationship between government size and economic growth. In order to search for the threshold effects, this paper employs [Hansen, B. E. (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica, 68(3), 575–603] threshold regression model to test whether the Armey curve exists in Taiwan, allowing for endogenous government size thresholds. We apply the two-sector production function developed by [Ram, R. (1986). Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data. American Economic Review, 76(1), 191–203] to construct the threshold regression model. Three classifications of government size are tested in sequence as threshold variables. The result indicates that all three classifications of government size have a threshold effect and that a non-linear relationship of the Armey curve exists in Taiwan.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from cointegration and co-feature analysis

The paper investigates the causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Nigeria during the period 1980–2006. The results of our estimation show that real gross domestic product (rGDP) and electricity consumption (ele) are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption (ele) to (rGDP). Then we applied Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the rGDP and electricity consumption (ele) series. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trend and the cyclical components of the two series, which seems to suggest that the Granger causality is possibly related with the business cycle. The paper suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency in the supply and use of electricity can further stimulate economic growth in Nigeria. The results should, however, be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of loss in power associated with the small sample size and the danger of omitted variable bias that could result from the use of bi-variate analysis.     

Nondestructive creation: Entrepreneurship and management research in the study of growth

Economists’ focus on institutions in explaining economic growth, while important, can obscure the significant role played by individual entrepreneurs and the process of entrepreneurship. The prevailing view of entrepreneurship in economics (which continues to shape prevailing public policies) centers on Schumpeter's famous concept of “creative destruction.” In the context of sustained high levels of economic growth, as in the recent American experience, I focus on a different feature of entrepreneurship—“nondestructive creation,” in which the uncoordinated contest of ideas and search for new applications of existing ideas generate growth. And this nondestructive creation should be analyzed and can be fostered.     

The dynamics among entrepreneurship,innovation, and economic growth in the Eurozone countries

Economic growth in the Eurozone has been lacklustre over the last two decades due to increased global competition from economic players in other regions, economic and financial crisis, and political uncertainties within the zone. To increase the global competitiveness of the region, the European Union launched the Europe 2020 Strategy to raise the level of entrepreneurship and innovation, which are purported to be key drivers of economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this assertion is true. Thus, the paper investigates the Granger causal relationships among entrepreneurship development, innovation, and economic growth for a sample of the Eurozone countries for the period 2001–2016. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds that in the long run, both entrepreneurship and innovation stimulate economic growth. In the short run, strong causal links exist but are not always uniform. The results reveal that Eurozone countries should indeed base their growth strategies on policies that promote innovation and policies that create incentives for entrepreneurship.     

Gender inequality in human capital accumulation and economic growth: a comparative analysis of Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Even though the significance of human capital in the growth literature is well established, little evidence is available on the role of education on growth segregated on a gender basis. The present study has focused on the importance of female education and employment and queried to what extent gender inequality in education and employment has an impact on economic growth in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. To answer this question, a simultaneous equations model covering time period of 1975–2009 has been used and the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) has been applied. The results have confirmed that the gender gap in education has induced an adverse impact on economic growth, both directly and indirectly, through rapid population growth and low investment. Results also show that though there is gender inequality in human capital accumulation in both counties but the intensity is higher in Pakistan as compared to Sri Lanka. The study explored the opportunities to encourage the role of females in the developmental activities of these countries. In view of the fact that gender inequality in education is critical for growth, the study recommends that rather than slashing the PSDP (Public Sector Development Program), Pakistan needs to promote investment in human capital and that there should be equal opportunity for education and employment for both males and females in both south Asian Countries.