Argumentation in Multi-issue Debates

An axiomatic modeling approach to multi-issue debates is proposed. A debate is viewed as a decision procedure consisting of two stages: (1) an “argumentation rule” determines what arguments are admissible for each party, given the “raw data”, depending on the issue or set of issues under discussion; (2) a “persuasion rule” determines the strength of the admissible arguments and selects the winning party. Persuasion rules are characterized for various alternative specifications of the argumentation rule. These characterizations capture rhetorical effects that we sometimes encounter in real-life multi-issue debates.     

Public Child‐Care Expansion and Changing Gender Ideologies of Parents in Germany

This study investigates whether the expansion of public child care for children aged younger than 3 years in Germany has been associated with individual‐level change in gender ideologies. The authors develop and test a theoretical framework of the short‐term impact of family policy institutions on ideology change. The analysis links the German Family Panel pairfam (2008 to 2015) with administrative records on county‐level child‐care provision for those aged younger than 3 years and applies fixed effects panel models. The findings show that the child‐care expansion has been associated with moderate changes toward less‐traditional gender ideologies only among mothers in West Germany and mostly among mothers without a college degree. In East Germany, the authors found evidence of more traditional gender ideologies among mothers without a college degree as the child‐care reform unfolded. The results provide evidence that policy reforms may alter gender ideologies also in the short‐term.     

Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

Judgments of the Carter-Reagan Debate: The Eyes of the Beholders

In line with social-psychological theory and with findings fromprior analyses of the impact of televised campaign debates,the 1980 Carter-Reagan debate seems to have been interpretedlargely in light of preexisting candidate preferences. Knowledgeof whether a viewer intended to vote for Carter or Reagan and,for undecided voters, knowledge of position on the liberal-conservativecontinuum, permit accurate predictions to be made of judgmentsof who won the debate.     

Wirkungen des TV-Duells im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2005 auf die Wahlentscheidung

During the election campaign to the German Federal Election 2005 the incumbent chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his challenger Angela Merkel met one another on the occasion of a televised debate, the so-called “TV-duel”. This debate was viewed by roughly one third of the German electorate. It is analyzed, whether the perception of the TV-duel winner has had an influence on the voting decision. In the empirical analyses special regard is given to the stability of the winner perception until election day and the influence of subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates. The data analyzed were collected by means of a new interviewing technology via the television screen of the respondents. It is shown, that the winner perception was largely stable and only marginally influenced by the media coverage following the debate. Subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates turn out to be of no importance for the voting decision. The effect of the winner perception on voting behaviour was mediated by changing candidate orientations.     

Staking the claims of identity: Purism,linguistics and the media in post‐1990 Germany1

The paper examines one of the major metalinguistic debates in post‐war Germany: the debate about the influence of English on German, an issue which was raised in the 1990s in the German media and has dominated media discussions on language ever since. The analysis demonstrates that the debate is deeply embedded in current socio‐political discourses as well as in long‐term discursive traditions concerning, on the one hand, the socio‐political changes following German reunification in 1989/90, which involved a revision of the concepts of nation and nationalism, and, on the other, the genesis of the concept of nation, which is closely bound up with the history of the educated bourgeoisie and the process of standardisation as well as linguistic purism. It is argued that the debate on Anglicisms, as is the case in many other metalinguistic debates, cannot be regarded in isolation from the socio‐political environment and the context of historical usage within which it is embedded.     

The Viability of Career Maturity Theory: A Developmental—Contextual Perspective

The critical role of the timing of person—context interactions is important in the conceptualization of the school-to-work transition. It is argued that career maturity, with its focus on the individual and its ties to stage models and notions of age-appropriateness, gives insufficient attention to the particular contexts of time and culture within which it may be observed. The use of recent advances in developmental theory is suggested as a viable alternative for understanding developmental transitions. Findings from the research literature and from a recent study of young adults from former East Germany and former West Germany are cited in support of this proposal. These findings highlight limitations of the construct of career maturity in showing how individual differences and contextual factors contribute to the school-to-work transition in contrasting environments of former East and West Germany.     

Sozialstrukturelle Interessenlagen und Parteipräferenz in Deutschland

Based on Allbus data, stability and change of the impact of social structurally defined interests on party preference in Germany is investigated. We use both traditional cleavage indicators like union membership or frequency of church attendance and further social structural characteristics like class identification, occupation or unemployment experience. We apply a two-level model with varying intercepts for the 16 Allbus surveys from 1980 to 2008. Beyond the expected results we observe some deviations from the stable relationship between social structural variables and party preference. (1) The younger generation of active Catholics prefers the Christian Democrats less than the older cohorts and the East German working class leaned towards this party immediately after unification. (2) Union members got alienated from the Social Democrats since 2004 due to reforms of unemployment benefits for people being out of work for a longer period of time with the consequence that Die Linke could profit from this trend in West and East Germany. (3) This left socialist party and its forerunner, the PDS, has always been the preferred party of people with unemployment experience. (4) The Greens and the Liberal Party are enduringly supported by specific social groups, the Greens by the social and cultural service class and the FDP by the self-employed, at least since this latter party ended the social liberal coalition with the SPD in 1982.     

Soziale Konfliktlinien und Wahlverhalten: Eine Analyse der Determinanten der Wahlabsicht bei Bundestagswahlen von 1969 bis 2009

The aim of this study is to analyse whether the impact of cleavages on voting behaviour in Germany has decreased over time. Additionally, the study evaluates whether the belonging to a social group is still of relevance for voting behaviour after including further theoretically derived determinants. On the basis of a pooled dataset that covers all German national election studies between 1969 and 2009, the analysis reveal that the class cleavage and the religious cleavage are still of relevance for voting behaviour in Germany, even when controlling for the voter’s candidate preference and problem-solving capacity of a political party as perceived by the voters.     

Between Ideology and Economy: The "Time Politics" of Child Care and Public Education in the Two Germanys

The article compares the discourses and policies of the "timepolitics" of public, that is, institutionalized, extra-familialcare and education of pre- and elementary school children inEast and West Germany. The FRG and the GDR represented two highlydistinct welfare and education systems, which referred to eachother in a complex relationship of "distancing and interconnection."Proceeding from the concept of the "path dependency" of societaland political developments, the article analyzes which factorsworked together when, how, and in which concrete historicalcontexts to form specific discourses and policies of the "timepolitics" in both German states.     

La transition théâtrale dans l'ex-RDA : vers la recherche de nouvelles formes de régulation organisationnelle

Organized around a very dense set of public institutions, the theater world in the former German Democratic Republic has undergone major changes since reunification. New organizational models have come into being, often imported from West Germany, that jeopardize the foundations of theater practices in the East. In East Germany, people working in theater were strongly protected: homogeneous training, lifetime employment, the stability of forms of artistic cooperation, etc. Since reunification, a new division of labor and a new human resource management have been imposed in public theaters. The profession’s rules are changing as the itineraries of theater people are being individualized. The diversification of the theater world makes public institutions fragile. On the basis of field work in Saxony, questions are raised about how public theaters are being recomposed in the East. Attention is paid to individual and collective movements and to the movements of organizations.     

Candidates on Television: The 1972 Electoral Debates in West Germany

This article explores the nature and effects of the campaigndebates held in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1972. Thefindings indicate that the debates were bruising personal battlesthat emphasized issues and ethics. While they did not have anydirect effects on either candidate perceptions or issue salience,there is evidence that the debates may have had some importantindirect effects on the electorate's ultimate voting choices.     

Public spheres,hidden politics and struggles over space: boundaries of public engagement in post‐apartheid South Africa

The development of a public sphere forms a central ingredient in the consolidation of a new political culture following a transition to democracy. The Habermasian idea of the public sphere has been challenged for not taking into account the role of ‘part’ and ‘counter public spheres’, particularly with reference to ‘developing’ societies. ‘Actually existing’ public spheres must therefore be conceptualised within the framework of a broader category of ‘public space’. A national public sphere in South Africa is held back by inequalities of wealth and power. A minority public of privileged consumers has access to a structure of print and electronic media, while the majority population relies on different systems of networking that make up counter publics. After 1994, the public sphere has been influenced by a dominant‐party system, accompanied by a division into formal and informal politics, with formal politics assuming a ritualistic function and ‘Realpolitik’ being played out within the non‐public structures of the dominant party. Meanwhile, critical public debate has had to find its course through varieties of informal politics. The article examines how moral debates around HIV/AIDS and crime in KwaZulu‐Natal have constituted an alternative arena for debate, and how cultural and religious discourses have been the channels of a local public sphere. The article discusses to what extent debates have constituted a local democratic ‘deliberative public sphere’, and looks at the ways in which the local state in the form of the eThekwini Municipality has interacted with local publics since 1994.     

Soziale Einflüsse auf die Klassenwahl im Generationen- und Periodenvergleich:

Social influences on the class vote result in a higher SPD-vote of workers who live in class homogeneous environments. These environments can be operationalized as ego-centric networks. In West Germany, these social influences are restricted to older cohorts and earlier Bundestag elections. This result gets corroborated by applying a more sophisticated dynamic version of an influence model, which analyses the relationship between party identification and the vote intention. It is shown that workers who do not identify with a party get mobilized as SPD-voters during election campaigns if they have contacts with other workers. This effect cannot be observed with ALLBUS-data from 1980, 1990 and 2000 for which interviewing did not take place during election campaigns. What has not changed in the last decades is the recruitment of friends and acquaintances from the same social class and subjective class identification under the impact of class homogeneous networks. What has changed is the politisation of these class homogeneous networks.     

CHANGING RACIAL LABELS: FROM "COLORED" TO "NEGRO" TO "BLACK" TO "AFRICAN AMERICAN"

Labels play an important role in defining groups and individualswho belong to the groups. This has been especially true forracial and ethnic groups in general and for Blacks in particular.Over the past century the standard term for Blacks has shiftedfrom "Colored" to "Negro" to "Black" and now perhaps to "AfricanAmerican." The changes can be seen as attempts by Blacks toredefine themselves and to gain respect and standing in a societythat has held them to be subordinate and inferior.     

Occupational concentration in work establishments

The failure of sociological and economic models premised on individual decision-making to account for persistent patterns of occupational concentration by race and gender has been a matter of considerable recent interest and debate. One response to this debate has been to explore the impact of various organizational dimensions on the social division of labor as experienced by males and females and/or blacks and whites. The importance of the work place as a locus of occupational restrictions has been widely acknowledged, but empirical research on this topic has been limited by the availability of establishment-level data. This paper seeks to contribute to our understanding of occupational concentration by race and gender through analysis of 1980 EEOC data on business establishments. The first phase of analysis examines the importance of the work place for occupational concentration by race and gender and places the EEOC data within the context of the 1980 U.S. economy. The second phase of analysis explores the impact of several organizational characteristics on occupational concentration within work establishments.     

SURPRISE ME IF YOU CAN: THE INFLUENCE OF NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS IN U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

We here evaluate the heterogeneous effects of newspaper endorsements of U.S. Presidential candidates in the 100 days preceding the 2008 and 2012 elections on the probability that they win the election. Our identification strategy relies on daily variations in the winning probabilities (obtained from the Intrade prediction market) and the fact that newspapers decide their endorsements weeks before their announcement. Endorsements that are classified as surprising and consistent have the largest effect. An endorsement is surprising when the newspaper has not traditionally endorsed the candidate's party. An endorsement is inconsistent when the newspaper leans ideologically to one party but endorses a candidate from another party. (JEL L82, D7)     

Does Talk Lead to Action? An Examination of the Relationship between Debate and Funding for NGOs in Canada

All organizations, including nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), need funding to survive and fulfill their mandates. What is the best strategy for securing that funding? Should groups work to attract government attention and be a focus of government debate or should they avoid this type of scrutiny? This article uses innovative data to systematically examine how being the subject of debate in parliament is related to NGO funding for Indigenous, women, and environmental groups. We also examine if the relationship between debate and funding is dependent on the political party in power. We use data collected from Canadian Public Accounts, which lists all grants to groups by the federal government, and the index of Hansard, a full record of parliamentary debates at the federal level in Canada. Our findings demonstrate that the relationship between debate and funding is dependent on the issue area. While debate is positively associated with funding in all areas, it is a stronger predictor of funding for environmental and Indigenous groups than for organizations focusing on women. In addition, the party in power is critical for shaping how debate is related to funding. Debate has a much stronger effect on environmental funding when Liberals are in power than it does when Conservatives control the Prime Minister's office. This research shows that NGOs must be strategic when garnering attention to their cause as more debate does not necessarily lead to more funding across issue areas and contexts.     

Mythos Flexibilisierung?

In this article, we address the current debate of increasing work life flexibility in (West-) Germany. In order to shed some light on the contradiction between a widely accepted decrease in work life stability and empirical findings that do not confirm such a decline, we contrast “objective” evidence from occupational trajectories with “subjective” evidence on various dimensions of perceived continuity and discontinuity of job histories. We use the West German part of the German Life History Study for a survival analysis of occupational mobility for cohorts born between 1929 and 1971. Here, using a new concept, we distinguish between direct mobility and indirect mobility which is defined as an occupational change that happens after an employment interruption. In addition, we analyze a new German cross-sectional data set from 2005 on retrospective career perceptions. We employ multinomial regression models to understand whether younger individuals report more unwanted occupational mobility and employment interruptions than older individuals. Our findings indicate that direct occupational mobility has neither increased across cohorts nor has it surged upward for the most recent cohorts, but that there has been an increase in indirect occupational mobility. Furthermore, while there is no higher incidence of unwanted occupational mobility in younger age groups, we find mixed evidence regarding the increased occurrence of unwanted career interruptions in younger age groups. Finally, the desire to experience occupational and firm changes has grown for younger age groups.