国家自然科学基金资助项目综合评价:基于Vague集多准则决策

采用基于Vague集的多准则决策方法,对国家自然科学基金11类主要竞争性资助项目的实施情况进行综合评价和排序.首先,通过问卷调研的方式,由国家自然科学基金项目评审专家采用"高"、"不高"和"不清楚"三类语义,对各类项目按照"评审公正性"、"管理规范性"、"科研创新性"和"社会影响力"四个准则进行评价;然后,根据问卷统计结果,将语义评价转化为Vague估计值,并利用一种新的评分函数计算各类项目在各准则下的得分;最后,采用正态分布的OWA算子集结各准则下的得分,得到所有项目的综合评价和排序.本文的研究结果将为完善国家自然科学基金的资助结构与管理模式提供重要参考依据.     

科技类评审中项目选择的两阶段综合集成方法

科技类评审中,如何合理地选择出若干优秀项目加以资助或激励至关重要。本文研究了科技类评审中的项目选择问题,指出在目前通行的两阶段评议法中存在通讯评议阶段的决策信息不能有效传递到会议评议阶段的情况,应采用适当的方法将两个阶段专家给出的评价信息进行综合处理,以得到更为合理的项目评审结果,进而给出了两阶段综合集成的框架与具体方法。算例表明,可以更充分的利用两阶段的专家评价信息,得到满意的选择结果。     

不完全确定信息的群体语言指派问题的求解方法

针对决策者权重和准则权重为不完全确定信息且评价语言值确定或位于二个标准语言值之间甚至缺失的多准则指派问题,提出了一种求解方法。首先利用证据推理算法计算得到各候选人完成各任务的优劣程度属于各个语言评价等级的信任度,并据此利用二元语义的Δ函数及其函数Δ-1将其集成为群体在所有准则下的综合评价矩阵,然后结合决策者权重和准则权重的不完全确定信息等构建非线性混合整数规则模型,并利用粒子群算法与匈牙利算法联合进行求解。最后实例说明该方法的可行性和有效性。     

管理科学与工程学科基金项目资助和SCI论文发表情况分析

系统地统计了2003～2008年国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部管理科学与工程学科面上项目和青年项目受资助的总体情况,分析了各个子学科类别的资助状况和发表SCI论文情况,同时分析比较了国家"十一五"与"十五"期间的资助项目情况和发表SCI论文数量情况,找出其中存在的问题并对其原因进行了分析.最后,依据国家自然科学基金"十一五"发展战略,提出今后国家自然科学基金资助策略和建议.     

基于项目网络支配和扩散关系的研发项目组合选择

项目组合包含多项目且项目间存在相互作用和依赖关系,针对传统项目组合评价方法忽略了各项目间依赖关系的不足,本文采用复杂网络理论和PageRank算法,提出一种新的项目优先级排序方法（PPRM）。首先,本文建立研发项目多属性评价准则,分析了项目间的支配关系以及技术和经验在项目间的扩散关系。然后,以项目为节点、以支配和扩散关系为边,分别构建了项目支配和扩散网络,进一步,采用设计结构矩阵（DSM）和K-shell方法建立了基于支配网络的项目影响力模型,并建立了考虑项目之间多次扩散传播的综合扩散概率模型。综合项目节点影响力和扩散关系,本文构建了基于PageRank算法的研发项目优先级排序模型。最后,以某研发项目组合选择为例,验证了本文所建立的模型和算法可有效分析项目组合中的排序问题。     

基于Mo-RVIKOR的混合多属性决策方法

针对复杂性和不确定性多属性决策问题,考虑定量和定性融合的属性形式,提出了模块化随机多准则妥协解排序法（Modular Random VlseKriterijumska Opti-mizacija I Kompromisno Resenje,Mo-RVIKOR）,该方法无需将信息统一,就能处理多种信息形式存在的多属性决策问题。采用精确数、随机变量处理定量评价信息,用概率语义术语集处理定性评价信息;通过改进离差最大化法确定属性权重;根据Mo-RVIKOR对决策对象进行排序;最后以某公司C2B定制化服务质量评测项目为例,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

基于区间灰色不确定语言的多准则决策方法

定义了区间灰色不确定语言及其运算法则和距离公式。拓展了连续区间数据的OWA(C-OWA)算子,提出了基于区间灰色不确定语言的有序加权C-OWA(IGULOWC-OWA)算子,并对其性质进行了分析。针对准则权重已知而方案的准则值为区间灰色不确定语言的多准则决策问题,提出了一种基于IGULOWC-OWA算子的多准则决策方法。该方法通过对各方案在各个准则下的评价值进行转换,将区间灰色不确定语言转化为不确定语言,然后,利用集结算子计算出各个方案的综合准则值,进而得出各方案的排序。最后通过算例表明了方法的可行性和有效性。     

区域间技术转移的管理研究

回顾了由国家自然科学基金资助的“APEC东北亚成员间技术转移的理论与实证研究”的项目成果,分析了该项目的研究目的,总结了其研究内容和研究方法,阐明了该项目研究的意义以及所取得的成果。     

基于运筹学知识表示理论的电子商务物流配送调度Agent——国家自然科学基金项目（7017040）回溯

介绍和总结了国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于运筹学知识表示理论的电子商务物流配送调度A gent”的研究内容、研究成果及其应用、学术影响,并提出了研究工作的2点特色。     

面向大规模定制的产品族数据管理

回顾了国家自然科学基金资助项目“面向大规模定制生产模式的产品族数据管理”(70271043)的研究情况,分析了该项目的研究目标,总结了其研究内容和研究方法,阐明了该项目的研究意义及所取得的成果。     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Job strain and psychotropic drug use among white-collar workers

The main objective of this study was to measure the association between simultaneous exposure to high psychological demand and low decision latitude at work and the use of psychotropic drugs among white-collar workers. A second objective was to determine whether social support at work modified this association. A cross-sectional study was performed that included 2786 workers from the public sector in the Greater Quebec City area. A self-administered questionnaire was used in order to evaluate psychological demand, decision latitude and social support at work. Psychotropic drug use was measured over a period of 2 days. The prevalence of psychotropic drug use among the participants was found to be 3.9%, even though 20.5% were exposed to job strain. The association between job strain and psychotropic drug use, after adjustment for social support at work, age, gender, education, family income, employment status, occupation, stressful life events, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity, was statistically significant (odds ratio: 4.5, 95% CI 1.7?12.2). Social support did not appear to modify this association. The results of this study suggest that job strain might be a determinant of psychotropic drug use among white collar workers. Social support at work does not appear, however, to modify this association.     

Role clarity, work overload and organizational support: multilevel evidence of the importance of support

The present study extended the demands-control-support model used in occupational stress research in two ways. First, it hypothesized that role clarity (i.e. role ambiguity), like control, would moderate the relationship between demands and psychological strain. Second, the study assessed support (from leaders) as a macro characteristic of the work-group environment. Data were drawn from a large study of US army soldiers, the study sample consisting of 1786 lower enlisted male soldiers. The inclusion of support as a work-group characteristic lead to a multilevel test of the model. A three-way multilevel interaction among work demands, role clarity and support was observed. As predicted, the relationship between demands and psychological strain was moderated by role clarity; however, this moderating relationship was found only when work-group support was high.     

Leadership, levels of analysis, and déjà vu: Modest proposals for taxonomy and cladistics coupled with replication and visualization

In the inaugural issue of LQ's Yearly Review of Leadership, Hunt and Dodge (2000, p. 442) note that, “Within the last two decades, one of the crucial developments in organizational research in general, and in leadership research specifically, is the articulation of specific levels of analysis and their implications for theory building, measurement, and observation.” Their original observations are updated by extending the inferential logic of Yammarino, Dionne, Chun and Dansereau (2005) to determine if any increase in the utilization of a level of analysis perspective has occurred in the last five years. The possible evolution of leadership theory and analysis is discussed, especially with reference to Relational Leadership Theory, Leader–Member Exchange, and Individualized Dyadic Theory. Proposals incorporating taxonomic and visualization tools as a means to help bridge the stakeholder gap are also offered.     

Information Frictions in Trade

It is costly to learn about market conditions elsewhere, especially in developing countries. This paper examines how such information frictions affect trade. Using data on regional agricultural trade in the Philippines, I first document a number of observed patterns in trade flows and prices that suggest the presence of information frictions. I then incorporate information frictions into a perfect competition trade model by embedding a process whereby heterogeneous producers engage in a costly sequential search process to determine where to sell their produce. I show that introducing information frictions reconciles the theory with the observed patterns in the data. Structural estimation of the model finds that information frictions are quantitatively important: roughly half the observed regional price dispersion is due to information frictions. Furthermore, incorporating information frictions improves the out‐of‐sample predictive power of the model.     

The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall

This paper develops a quantitative model of internal city structure that features agglomeration and dispersion forces and an arbitrary number of heterogeneous city blocks. The model remains tractable and amenable to empirical analysis because of stochastic shocks to commuting decisions, which yield a gravity equation for commuting flows. To structurally estimate agglomeration and dispersion forces, we use data on thousands of city blocks in Berlin for 1936, 1986, and 2006 and exogenous variation from the city's division and reunification. We estimate substantial and highly localized production and residential externalities. We show that the model with the estimated agglomeration parameters can account both qualitatively and quantitatively for the observed changes in city structure. We show how our quantitative framework can be used to undertake counterfactuals for changes in the organization of economic activity within cities in response, for example, to changes in the transport network.     

Modelling end-of-life product recovery chains - a case study

European Union legislation, and existing national legislation of many European countries, mandates that manufacturers take back and recover their electronic and electrical equipment. If manufacturers are to comply with legislation, models need to be developed for these activities. Whilst infrastructural and technological deficits exist and must be addressed, so too must the organization of recovery, from a business perspective. In this paper, models of resource recovery are presented and a case study described.