基于非参数ACE变换的贝叶斯非线性协整检验

针对线性以及非线性协整检验存在模型参数过多、小样本条件下检验功效偏低的问题,提出基于非参数ACE变换的贝叶斯非线性协整VAR模型,运用ACE算法进行变量变换,结合参数的完全条件分布设计Gibbs抽样方案,进行贝叶斯非线性协整检验,并利用Monte Carlo 仿真研究了贝叶斯非线性协整方法的检验势,发现贝叶斯非线性协整...     

小样本协整系统的检验

采用Mon te Carlo 模拟方法, 给出了小样本容量下协整检验临界值的响应面( respon se su rface) 方程. 结果表明小样本协整检验的临界值不仅与样本容量有关, 还依赖于协整检验中 的滞后阶数. 最后对中国城镇居民的食品消费进行了小样本协整分析.     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元（GRU）神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型（弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型）的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此，本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明，汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系，从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性，以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。     

基于贝叶斯机制转换协整模型的石油——股市非对称效应研究

传统门限机制转换模型存在参数估计最优化计算复杂以及参数不可识别的问题,本文构建双机制的贝叶斯门限机制转换协整模型研究国际石油价格与股市之间的非线性动态关系。利用八个亚太股票市场和国际石油价格的数据,结合MCMC抽样算法进行贝叶斯分析,着重考察国际石油—股市之间的非对称效应,结果发现国际石油价格与韩国、马来西亚股市之间具有门限机制转换的非线性协整关系,表明国际石油价格与韩国、马来西亚股市存在非对称效应,而国际石油价格与日本、澳大利亚、印度、印度尼西亚、台湾和新加坡股市之间没有非对称效应。进一步,格兰杰因果检验结果发现,国际石油价格与日本、澳大利亚、韩国、印度、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和新加坡股票价格指数之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,而与台湾股票价格指数之间没有明显的格兰杰因果关系。     

基于典型相关分析的无约束综列协整检验

现有的综列协整检验方法均存在较强的约束条件.该文基于Johansen典型相关分析,在允许截面个体间存在协整关系和动态影响的情况下,建立了综列协整的迹检验和最大特征值检验等似然比检验统计量.为了避免似然比检验在有限样本下的分布扭曲,在无约束综列协整检验中引入了Bootstrap程序,以提高检验结论的可靠性.仿真实验结果显示,无约束综列协整检验显著优于Groen和Keibergen的有约束检验.     

外国直接投资与国内资本形成的协整分析

本文在对数据进行单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验和有序样本最优分割的基础上，运用协整理论，建立了外国直接投资与我国资本形成的协整模型和误差修正模型。实证分析的结果表明，无论是长期和短期内，外国直接投资对我国国内资本形成有促进作用。     

非线性协整建模研究及沪深股市实证分析

讨论了线性协整和非线性协整的涵义,指出在非线性系统中,非线性协整可以更好地刻画多个时间序列之间的均衡关系.提出了利用小波神经网络逼近非线性协整函数的方法,并给出了训练小波神经网络的变尺度算法.最后利用上海和深圳股指数据进行了实证研究,通过与BP神经网络的比较,证实了小波神经网络在非线性协整建模中的有效性,并说明沪深股市之间存在着非线性协整关系.     

金融风险管理的非线性SV模型及其应用研究

金融风险管理的非线性SV模型的优点在于用它可以检验不同函数形式的随机波动,该模型的检验仅基于一个单独参数δ.在非线性SV模型的基础上,进一步把它扩展为具有杠杆效应的非线性SV模型.本文使用上海和深圳股市的指数日收益数据进行了实证分析,借助BUGS软件,利用Gibbs取样的MCMC方法对模型进行了贝叶斯参教估计,证明了应拒绝对数正态SV模型,而使用非线性SV模型.     

非线性协整关系的存在性研究

运用神经网络技术 ,提出了一种估计和检验非线性长记忆时间序列之间的协整关系的方法 ,并通过仿真试验说明了所提方法的实用价值 .同时 ,根据马氏过程的遍历理论 ,对网络输出残差的平稳条件进行了研究 ,证明了网络输出平稳残差的充分条件 ,给出了残差序列存在唯一的渐近平稳分布的条件     

基于非参数回归的遗漏变量检验

基于非参数回归提出了同时适用于横截面和时间序列数据的遗漏变量检验统计量.与现有文献相比,该统计量不仅避免了模型设定偏误问题,而且具有更高的局部检验功效,能够识别出速度更快的收敛到原假设的局部备择假设.该文选择单一带宽估计条件联合期望和条件边际期望,允许二者的非参数估计误差共同决定统计量的渐近分布,不仅改善了统计量的有限样本性质,而且避免了选择多个带宽和计算多个偏差项产生的繁杂工作.蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明该统计量具有良好的有限样本性质以及比Ait-Sahalia等更高的检验功效.实证分析采用该统计量捕获了F统计量无法识别的产出缺口与通胀之间关系,验证了非线性“产出一通胀”型菲利普斯曲线在中国的适用性.     

中国股市价格—交易量的线性及 非线性因果关系研究

实证研究了沪市和深市价格和交易量之间的线性和非线性因果关系, 研究结果表明, 两 个市场之间存在着收益对交易量的线性Granger 因果关系和双向的非线性Granger 因果关 系. 在经过周末效应和GARCH 模型调整之后, 沪深两市量价之间的非线性因果关系消失了     

Calibration Results for Non‐Expected Utility Theories

Rabin (2000) proved that a low level of risk aversion with respect to small gambles leads to a high, and absurd, level of risk aversion with respect to large gambles. Rabin's arguments strongly depend on expected utility theory, but we show that similar arguments apply to general non‐expected utility theories.     

First Application of FISK,the Freshwater Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit,in Northern Europe: Example of Southern Finland

The climatic conditions of north temperate countries pose unique influences on the rates of invasion and the potential adverse impacts of non‐native species. Methods are needed to evaluate these risks, beginning with the pre‐screening of non‐native species for potential invasives. Recent improvements to the Fish Invasiveness Scoring Kit (FISK) have provided a means (i.e., FISK v2) of identifying potentially invasive non‐native freshwater fishes in virtually all climate zones. In this study, FISK is applied for the first time in a north temperate country, southern Finland, and calibrated to determine the appropriate threshold score for fish species that are likely to pose a high risk of being invasive in this risk assessment area. The threshold between “medium” and “high” risk was determined to be 22.5, which is slightly higher than the original threshold for the United Kingdom (i.e., 19) and that determined for a FISK application in southern Japan (19.8). This underlines the need to calibrate such decision‐support tools for the different areas where they are employed. The results are evaluated in the context of current management strategies in Finland regarding non‐native fishes.     

增加价值分配结构现状及其决定因素分析——基于我国上市公司的实证研究

文章以教育部博士点基金项目(2011年)为依托,将企业增加价值在其主要利益相关者之间分配份额(分配结构)作为研究对象,构建了非竞争市场因素影响增加价值分配结构结的结构方程模型框架,并以2003-2010年上市公司微观数据为样本,运用结构方程分析方法对相关假设进行实证检验。实证结果表明:1、目前国企相对民企、欠发达地区相对于发达地区以及商业相对于工业和地产对增加员工所得份额、降低政府所得份额有显著影响,表现为对分配结构存在显著的负向影响;2、股权集中度与经营绩效对增加员工所得份额、降低政府所得份额有影响,表现为对分配结构有正向影响,但统计上不显著;3、研究发现政府所得率与员工所得率之间呈反向变动关系。结论表明:非竞争市场因素对我国增加价值分配结构存在重要影响,在解决分配结构问题的时候,应尽量消除非竞争市场因素的不利影响。     

资本市场非线性理论研究综述与展望

资本市场种种“异象”的涌现和大量实证研究结果表明,有效市场假说和以之为基础的 现代资本市场理论体系与资本市场的实际情况存在着矛盾和冲突,在此背景下出现了一些研 究资本市场的非线性理论. 文章对分形、混沌、突变、行为金融学、协同市场假说等非线性理论 在资本市场的研究方法进行了论述,提出了当前它们存在的问题,并对资本市场非线性理论的 发展做出了展望     

Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows

News—or foresight—about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non‐fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non‐fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized information flows. Different methods for extracting or hypothesizing the information flows are discussed and shown to be alternative techniques for resolving a non‐uniqueness problem endemic to moving average representations.     

Investing in a Shared Supplier in a Competitive Market: Stochastic Capacity Case

When firms invest in a shared supplier, one key concern is whether the invested capacity will be used for a competitor. In practice, this concern is addressed by restricting the use of the capacity. We consider what happens when two competing firms invest in a shared supplier. We consider two scenarios that differ in how capacity is used: exclusive capacity and first‐priority capacity. We model firms' investment and production decisions, and analyze the equilibrium outcomes in terms of the number of investing firms and capacity levels for each scenario; realized capacity is a stochastic function of investment levels. We also identify conditions under which the spillover effect occurs, where one firm taps into the other firm's invested capacity. Although the spillover supposedly intensifies competition, it actually discourages firms' investment. We also characterize the firms' and supplier's preference about the capacity type. While the non‐investing firm always prefers spillovers from the first‐priority capacity, the investing firm does not always want to shut off the other firm's access to its leftover capacity, especially when allowing spillover induces the other firm not to invest. The supplier's preference depends on the trade‐off between over‐investment and flexibility.     

Improving the Milk Supply Chain in Developing Countries: Analysis,Insights, and Recommendations

Quality issues in milk—arising primarily from deliberate adulteration by producers—have been reported in several developing countries. In the milk supply chain, a station buys raw milk from a number of producers, mixes the milk and sells it to a firm (that then sells the processed milk to end consumers). We study a non‐cooperative game between a station and a population of producers. Apart from penalties on proven low‐quality producers, two types of incentives are analyzed: confessor rewards for low‐quality producers who confess and quality rewards for producers of high‐quality milk. Contrary to our expectations, whereas (small) confessor rewards can help increase both the quality of milk and the station's profit, quality rewards can be detrimental. We examine two structures based on the ordering of individual and mixed testing of milk: pre‐mixed individual testing (first test a fraction of producers individually and then [possibly] perform a mixed test on the remaining producers) and post‐mixed individual testing (first test the mixed milk from all producers and then test a fraction of producers individually). Whereas pre‐mixed individual testing can be socially harmful, a combination of post‐mixed individual testing and other incentives achieves a desirable outcome: all producers supply high‐quality milk with only one mixed test and no further testing by the station.     

Regulatory Trade Risk and Supply Chain Strategy

Trade regulations are an important driver of supply chain strategy in many industries. For example, the textile, paper, chemical, and steel industries grapple with significant levels of non‐tariff barriers (NTBs) such as safeguard controls and countervailing duties. We explore three often observed supply chain strategies in industries subject to NTBs; direct procurement, split procurement, and outward processing arrangements (OPAs). We characterize the optimal procurement quantities for each of these three strategies, and examine how industry and country characteristics influence the firm's strategy preference. For example, we establish that the direct and split strategy profits increase in the NTB price variance but decrease in the mean price. These effects are sufficiently large that NTB price characteristics can dictate which supply chain strategy is preferred. Both the cost disadvantage and lead‐time advantage of domestic production are also significant influencers of the preferred strategy, as is the domestic‐country mandated production constraint associated with the OPA strategy.     

Balancing Production and Distribution in Paper Manufacturing

A paper manufacturing plant minimizes its production cost by using long production runs that combine the demands from its various customers. As jobs are completed, they are released to distribution for delivery. Deliveries are made by railcars, each of which is dedicated to one customer. Long production runs imply that maximizing railcar utilization requires holding the cars over several days or holding completed jobs within the loading facility. Each of these methods imposes a cost onto the distribution function. We find how distribution can minimize its cost, given production's schedule. We then consider the problem of minimizing the company's overall cost of both production and distribution. A computational study using general data illustrates that the distribution cost is reduced by 25.80% through our proposed scheme, and that the overall cost is reduced an additional 4.40% through our coordination mechanism. An optimal algorithm is derived for a specific plant's operations.