北京将推新政解保障房巨亏难题

日前下发的房地产调控“新国八条”．其中明确提出地方政府制定房地产价格控制的指标．并于一季度向社会公布。这是第一次将楼市以前虚化的“责任”落实到了数据考核指标上。目前，住建部正督促地方政府尽快上报各地的房价控涨任务目标。而继多个城市出台“限购令”之后．被称为目前最严厉的北京“禁三禁二”限购政策也已出台．     

投资行为对房地产价格及其政策的影响

在给定的经济环境下,研究自住购房者、投资购房者和开发商之间的供需均衡模型． 通过与刚性需求的房地产市场比较,发现投资购房者的行为是影响房地产价格变化的重要因素． 特别地,外推型投资者对房地产价格的走势有推波助澜的作用; 回复型投资者虽然具有稳定市场的作用,但也会增加市场的复杂性． 当房地产市场的不同主体之间存在相互作用时,房地产价格会出现偏离基准价格、路径依赖、巨额波动和陷入低房价陷阱等现象． 政府通过调整基础经济变量(如首付比和开发成本) ,能起到调控房地产市场的目的． 相对首付比调节来说,开发成本调节既能调整基准价格,又能改变投资购房者对房地产市场的影响,可以起到综合调控房地产市场的作用,是比较有效的房地产调控措施．     

限购令改限价令

与衢州、台州等地出台的“限购令”相比．更多的二三线城市则选择相对宽松的“限价政策”。9月13日的《经济参考报》调查分析．二三线城市“限价令”的普遍出现．显示地方政府在执行限购政策的不情愿和博弈心理。专家指出．“限价令”仅仅影响价格．     

投资行为对房地产价格及其政策的影响北大核心CSCDCSSCI

在给定的经济环境下,研究自住购房者、投资购房者和开发商之间的供需均衡模型.通过与刚性需求的房地产市场比较,发现投资购房者的行为是影响房地产价格变化的重要因素.特别地,外推型投资者对房地产价格的走势有推波助澜的作用;回复型投资者虽然具有稳定市场的作用,但也会增加市场的复杂性.当房地产市场的不同主体之间存在相互作用时,房地产价格会出现偏离基准价格、路径依赖、巨额波动和陷入低房价陷阱等现象.政府通过调整基础经济变量(如首付比和开发成本),能起到调控房地产市场的目的.相对首付比调节来说,开发成本调节既能调整基准价格,又能改变投资购房者对房地产市场的影响,可以起到综合调控房地产市场的作用,是比较有效的房地产调控措施.     

中国政务信息网媒体关注度测评

二三线城市纠结限购令推荐度指数楼市调控加码正在给一些二三线城市造成更大的压力。上周,国务院明确表示,房价上涨过快的二三线城市也要采取必要的限购措施。《第一财经日报》记者调查发现,海南琼海市今年一季度竟出现经济负增长,而去年第一季度,     

房贷首付提至5成能否降低房价?

五一黄金周过后,有媒体爆出猛料:央行为抑制房价,正在酝酿将购房首付比例提高至5成。消息一出,舆论哗然。这意味着政府很可能将对“房地产热”采取有史以来最猛的一剂“药”,新一轮宏观调控已经具备“山雨欲来”之势。然而,对此传闻,央行明确表示了“不知情”。但空穴来风, 未必无因。面对日益飞涨的房价,首付提至四到五成在未来可能变成现实吗? 一旦传闻变成事实,首付比例的提高是否能够真正促使房价降低?面对房价不断飞涨的局势,国家又将出台何种“组合拳”来促使楼市的理性回归?     

政策限购松绑房价何去何从

中国楼市的限购之路,已经足足走了4年。在过去的10年,关于楼市调控的文件足足下发了179份,限购令被视作效力最猛也最受争议的政策。 2014年,楼市悄然变奏限购令这条4年来“捆绑”房地产行业的铁律开始悄然松动,46个限购城市中已经有37个或明或暗地开始松绑城市限购松绑率近60％,包括户籍政策松绑、公积金政策松绑、税货减免等至此,各地政府曲线救市已成燎原之势、涨的时候不敢买,开始降了更不敢买,这就是纠结的中国买房者的心态,“不少二、三线城市急欲摆脱限购对楼市活力的束缚,而一旦这些城市取消限购、松绑楼市,销量未必能立竿见影。”浙江利时商业管理杭州分公司总经理李兴军的判断,正应和了开发商谨慎拿地消极入市的大趋势。虽然不同城市针对自身的问题提出了不同的“松绑方案”,但多数楼市数据仍在低选区域徘徊。就目前的市场反应来看,限购松绑也仅仅能给低迷的楼市带来那么一点点亮光,楼市想要回暖复苏,还需要放宽房贷政策等更多激励措施的跟进。     

二、三线城市限购“鞋子落地”

浙江台州市包含限购举措在内的房地产市场调控新政．9月1日起正式实施。业内人士普遍认为．作为新一轮调控下全国第一个制定并执行限购政策的二、三线城市．台州限购政策的出台是对国务院常务会议以及不久前住建部关于二、三线城市限购五条具体标准的回应。在台州的示范之下．二、三线城市的限购政策将陆续浮出水面。     

“限购令”下的房地产市场分析

当前房地产市场过热的局面由此引起购买力相对不足，人民生活水平和消费水平受到影响以及社会福利感不足的情况引起了国家的重视。在国家出台限购令的同时，重庆地区作为首批进行房产税试点的城市，受到各方关注；而大连地区，则出台了相关的限购细则，来确保限购令的执行。本文通过对近期重庆和大连地区房地产的相关政策和数据的解读，分析在“限购令”下的重庆和大连的房地产市场。     

房地产市场拐点发生在何时?

正据不完全统计,截至目前,包括武汉、杭州、成都、长春等多地陆续传出限购松绑的消息,已经有15个城市取消或调整限购政策。其中,仅呼和浩特、苏州、广州等4个城市有官方确认,其他城市均没有取消限购的正式通知,大多采用口头通知或执行层面的暗地松绑,且这一悄然松绑的态势正在向其他城市蔓延。取消限购能否阻止房价下跌呢?回答这个问题,我们需要弄清楚房价高的原因。房价好比湖中水位,水位上涨,只可能是向湖中注水,并且不开闸泄洪。房价高可能一是向房市注入了太多的水,二是房市中的水没有泄洪的地方。     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.