GDP增长率与货币供应量增长率的缺口研究

2009年是金融危机后中国经济呈V型反转的关键的一年,虽然经济才开始起好,但是经济是否能够持续高速增长、通货膨胀是否会卷土重来、流动性过剩等问题又成为经济学家密切关注、热烈讨论的问题。这些热门的话题无不与货币相关,货币作为现代信用经济的主要媒介物,对经济的发展起着重要作用,因而央行的货币政策对一国宏观经济的稳定与发展非常重要。在央行的货币政策中,为宏观经济的发展提供流动性是其主要任务之一,而且是一项非常复杂与艰难的任务。究竟保持多大的货币供应量增长才是恰当的?这一问题很具争议性,在经济学领域中对它的回答也是仁者见仁、智者见智,因而央行的货币供应量增长率的决策通常会引起经济学家们的争议,甚至是批评、责难。本文试图从GDP增长率与货币供应量增长率的经验数据出发,并结合一些现存的流行的理论观点,对货币供应量的增长对宏观经济的影响进行研究。     

全球和中国经济的艰难调整

2012年,全球经济再次陷入低迷,这种低迷是2008年全球金融危机的延续.其根本原因,则在于全球经济的结构性失衡. 2010和2011年,全球经济有了短暂的恢复,但只是世界各国政府在短时间内动用大量资源,使用极度扩张的货币政策,刺激起来的虚假繁荣.当刺激政策的效应过去后,世界经济的结构性问题依然如故. 只有在市场力量的推动下,进行结构性的改革,世界经济才能走出金融危机带来的低谷,中国经济才能完成转型. 全球经济的结构性失衡表现为美国家庭过度借债、过度消费,欧洲政府过度赤字,中国居民过度储蓄和政府、企业过度投资.     

解读美国经济——信用泡沫破灭后

信用泡沫破灭后,投机性金融资本遭到重创,货币乘数收缩,危机逐渐蔓延到包括美国在内的全球各个市场以及实体经济。尽管包括美联储在内的央行大力增加基础货币,但是目前全球流动性仍然不足,金融市场预期混乱。未来美国是陷入长期大萧条还是能够较快自我修复,而它又如何来实现自我修复。     

金融发展差异与中美经常项目失衡的关系:微观层面的一个文献综述

关于中美经常项目失衡中的问题,依据不同理论,可能得出不同的结论,但学者们通常从汇率变动、储蓄-投资变动、国际货币体系、产业结构性变化等角度围绕中美经常项目失衡中的相关问题展开研究。本文在众多学者研究的基础上,从金融发展差异的视角对全球经济失衡做个总结。     

基于托宾模型的我国流动性过剩现象分析

流动性过剩问题是我国当前面临的突出问题,造成流动过剩的原因是多方面的,极大影响了我国金融稳定.本文首先介绍了托宾理论模型,利用该模型从股票市场、债券市场、外币资产市场、基础货币市场角度分析了当前我国流动性过剩现象的原因,并针对四个市场提出具体的建议.     

基于货币市场流动性的中国股市价格变动分析

针对2007年以来中国货币市场存在的流动性过剩以及同期股市持续高涨、房价泡沫现象，本文选取中国2001-2008年的中国股票沪、深市场与同期货币市场的数据，分析货币市场流动性变化对资本市场价格的推动，我们发现货币市场上货币供应量的变化并不显著影响证券市场的价格，这是由于资本市场发展不成熟，且与货币市场上一体化程度低，无法有效引导资金在两个市场之间的流动。     

浅谈我国商业银行流动性过剩问题及对策研究

流动性是商业银行的生命之本,它不仅关系到单个银行的存亡,更牵连着整个国家乃至全球经济的稳定。而流动性过剩更是被视为导致潜在通货膨胀、资源配置效率较低等经济问题的根本原因之一。但是近年来,我国商业银行流动性过剩问题愈演愈烈,具体表现为商业银行的存贷差加大、超额准备金攀升、金融市场利率走低等。笔者通过对造成流动性过剩的现状的分析,提出了解决流动性过剩的对策。     

关于超主权货币的思考

二战后,美国凭借其经济、军事实力,建立了以美元为主要储备货币的国际货币体系。然而,由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机用事实证明了目前国际货币体系的内在缺陷,演绎了新一轮的美元“特里芬悖论”。在世界愁于为美国买单之时,周小川行长提出“超主权货币”的国际货币体系改革构想,为世界货币体系改革注入了新的血液。然而冰冻三尺非一日之寒,经济实力、国’际分歧等种种不确定因素,使超主权货币这一构想任重而道远。     

“地头力”强的企业没有冬天

美国人过度消费、储蓄率太低、凭借其世界货币地位大量发行美元的独特经济模式，造成了全球经济体系中虚拟财富过多，终于酿成席卷全球的金融危机。据亚欧资本论坛副秘书长齐继义测算，全球实体经济总量有30万亿美元之巨，而虚拟经济总量则高达6000万亿美元。200倍的杠杆在那里忽悠，全球经济有可能面临着更严峻和深重的危机。     

流动性偏好企业家动态投资消费与企业资产定价

假设流动性偏好企业家拥有企业收益,其财富可用来投资无风险资产和风险资产,也用于消费;同时,市场是非完备的,企业特质风险无法被对冲。为了探究流动性偏好对企业家投资消费决策以及企业资产定价的影响,文章采用效用无差别定价理论与动态规划方法,得到了企业家最优投资消费策略以及企业效用无差别价格的闭式解,继而得到如下结论：流动性偏好降低了企业家风险资产投资以及当前消费,同时减弱了企业家预防性储蓄动机和企业风险对冲动机,并显著地降低了企业效用无差别价格。此外,作为拓展研究,文章引入了企业经济周期,发现流动性偏好削弱了经济周期对企业家投资消费和企业效用无差别价格的影响。最后,文章主要结论为一些金融现象提供了可能性的经济解释。     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Employees' perceptions of organizational restructuring: the role of social support

Organizational change and restructuring is often perceived as leading to increased occupational stress, impacting negatively on the psychological well-being of employees. This pragmatic study investigates the role of social support and dispositional affect as moderators of role stress post-restructuring for employees in a public utility company. A total of 176 employees, including 37 managers, 60 graded staff and 78 industrial staff completed a self-report questionnaire, approximately 1 year postrestructuring, retrospectively assessing role conflict, ambiguity, overload and positive and negative feedback pre- and post-restructuring. Results suggested that overall role stress increased for managers/ senior officers and graded staff, but not for industrial staff. Social support was linked with lower role stress, more positive feedback and less negative feedback at post-restructuring. For certain role stressors this impact was moderated by dispositional affect, but the effect was not consistent across occupational groups. Positive affect enhanced the effect of manager support in reducing role conflict for graded staff, and the effect of co-worker support in increasing positive feedback and reducing negative feedback for industrial staff. Findings suggest that managers should pay particular attention to support and feedback for employees during periods of chronic occupational stress following organizational restructuring.     

The Danish psychosocial work environment and symptoms of stress: the main, mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to explore the main, mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence (SOC) on stress symptoms and on the association between perceived psychosocial work environment and stress symptoms. The sample includes 2053 Danish employees from 52 workplaces. Hierarchical regression models were applied for each measure of stress. The results strongly supported the presence of a main effect for SOC. People with high levels of SOC experienced fewer stress symptoms. A mediating effect of SOC was also supported. Thus, SOC in part explained the association between work environment and stress symptoms. In addition, some support for a moderating effect of SOC was found, suggesting that people with higher SOC coped more efficiently with work environmental strain that people with lower SOC. Taken together the regression models explained 11-32% of the variance in stress symptoms. The results suggest that measures of individual factors such as SOC should be included in analyses of the effects of work environmental factors on stress and well-being.     

Control at work: a generalized resource factor for the prevention of musculoskeletal symptoms?

During the last two decades two potent groups of predictors for work-related musculoskeletal problems have been identified: physical work load and poor psychosocial working conditions. However, little is known about their combined effects. In this study the buffering effect of control at work with respect to the negative effects of psychological demands and physical work load on musculoskeletal problems is examined. All study variables were sampled from 431 people working in geriatric nursing homes in Germany by means of questionnaires. Main effects and interactions were tested with multiple regression analysis. The results showed that control buffered the effects of high psychological demands, but not of high physical work load; the buffering effect of control was observed only when physical work load was low. The combined effects of demands and physical work load were over-additive. Thus, the power of different predictors for musculoskeletal symptoms depended on the level of other predictors. This suggests that the efficiency of certain strategies for the prevention of musculoskeletal problems is likely to depend on the level of risk factors, with different strategies being appropriate for different levels of risk.