弹性城市化与农民工反贫困：基于城乡统筹的视角

主流观点认为农民工问题的根本出路不在农村而在城市．支持通过加速城市化进程的方式来解决农民工问题。但在中国人口整体规模过大情况下,完全实行人口自由流动或迫使人口向城市流动的政策,结果只能是贫困人口向城市的搬迁和聚集。较现实的方式是：长期稳定和完善中国农民自己创造的城乡间往返流动模式．即弹性城市化模式。这在一定程度有效地平衡了市场条件下的城市化限制与农村低收入之间的矛盾,降低城市严重贫困化的风险。     

Agricultural backwardness being the fundamental cause of rapid population growth]

We have been an agricultural country for more than 2000 years. The low level of mechanization and dependence of manpower in our agriculture required a large quantity of labor. Therefore, development of Chinese feudal society was closely related to the population growth. After the establishment of a new socialistic China, the rapid development of agricultural production resulted in our 1st population boom (1952 to 1957). Later the rapid development of heavy industry demanded the transfer of a large amount of labor from agriculture. The shortage of labor in China caused reductions in agriculture and a 2nd population boom. The backward nature of China's agriculture requires increased labor input to increase production. On the other hand, the increased productivity does not match the demands of the increased population. Consequently, living standards in the society decrease and the population growth slows. The emphasis on population control and family planning is indeed beneficial to China's economy. The fundamental solution of China's population problem must rely on a technical revolution in agriculture and increased agricultural productivity.     

我国贫困人口标准再探讨

近几年,通过对我国10余个贫困县的考察,笔者认为:农村贫困人口标准过低,仅相当于国际贫困线确定的最低贫困人口标准的1/5,相当其贫困标准的1/10;相当于我国监狱囚犯生活标准的1/4,相当于美国贫困人口标准的1/50。贫困人口难以完成在当时社会一般的、正常状况下劳动力的再生产。农村贫困人口从2亿多减少到2000多万,主要不是扶贫工作所致,而是到城镇打工。依据马克思劳动力价值学说的基本原理,抓紧调整提高农村贫困人口标准,改进扶贫工作机制,对我国的长治久安和建设和谐社会的大局有利。     

Urban growth in China: past, prospect, and its impacts

Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration in rural and urban regions, we estimate the magnitude of urbanization in China through 2030 and examine some major associated sustainability issues. Results indicate that: (1) for a range of assumptions, China’s urban population will nearly double from 2000 to 2030; (2) the labor force will constitute a larger share of total population in urban areas than rural due to internal migration of younger workers—this appears particularly true for the mega-urban metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai; (3) rural populations will experience more aging than urban; and (4) level of education among China’s rural labor force will remain low, which could pressure China’s industrial structural transition from an agricultural to a service-based economy.     

[The movement of rural labor and the establishment of small towns as suggested by factors of production].]

The movement of the labor force from rural areas into urban areas, specifically into small cities and towns, is examined using data from a survey of the Yiyang area of China. It is noted that a surplus in the agricultural labor force has resulted from changes in agricultural productivity. Consequently, the authors point out, farmers are either transferring from rural areas into industrial and service sectors in small cities and towns or are remaining in the rural areas to be employed by collective enterprises. Advantages and disadvantages of these trends are discussed.     

Population growth,changing agricultural practices,and environmental degradation in Zaire

This paper examines linkages between the demographic changes taking place in Zaire, particularly overall population growth and rapid urbanization, changes in agricultural practices, and related environmental degradation. Pressures to feed Zaire's rapidly increasing urban population, which fall on a rural population that has been growing relatively slowly in recent years, as well as population growth and increased population density in certain areas of the country, have resulted in changes in agricultural practices that are described in the paper. These changes in turn are leading to declining soil fertility, deforestation, and degradation of the natural resource base. Given present technology and the state of Zaire's economy, the changes in agricultural practices that have emerged in response to population growth, increased population density, and growth in demand for food production do not appear to be sustainable in the long run.     

吉林省农村剩余劳动力省内转移空间分析

吉林省是我国重要的农业大省,2000年以来其农村劳动力数量一直居高不下,且呈不断上升趋势,可见,吉林省大量的剩余劳动力滞留在农村。而现阶段,吉林省内部转移空间狭小,无论是城镇还是农村内部对剩余劳动力的吸纳能力都比较弱,不仅低于全国平均水平,更无法与东部较发达地区相比。为此,我们有必要采取一定措施来拓展吉林省农村剩余劳动力的省内转移空间。     

当前我国农村劳动力转移面临的问题及对策

促进农村劳动力转移是我国实现农业和农村经济发展、不断增加农民收入的重要途径。当前,我国农村劳动力已实现了大规模的转移,且具有逐年增加、以青壮年劳动力为主、向沿海地区集中的特点,但劳动力市场制度分割、户籍制度与农地经营政策、劳动力素质偏低且劳动力合法权益得不到有效保护等因素影响着农村劳动力转移的进程,为此,应采取积极措施,走新型工业化道路,加快城市化步伐,推动城乡劳动力市场一体化和信息服务体系建设,并加大教育和培训投资力度,加快农村劳动力转移的速度,提高转移质量。     

我国农村剩余劳动力转移的途径及面临的困境

我国农村剩余劳动力的数量较大,主要转向大中城市、小城镇、农村二、三产业和深层次农业。转移过程中面临的困境既有剩余劳动力自身的因素,也有城市就业压力大、城市化进程缓慢、“小城镇病”等外部因素。     

城镇化进程中的人口流动与城镇新增贫困人口问题分析

在城镇化的过程中,农村人口净流向城镇。这一方面推动城镇和农村的发展,另一方面带来城镇贫困人口的增加。由农村流入城镇的人口其贫困发生率大致在3%以上。为预防和保障人口流动中的城镇新增贫困人口,应该采取措施分类引导人口的城镇化,建立和完善进入城镇农民的社会保障体系,积极发展城镇服务业等第三产业,避免过度的城市化带来城镇贫困问题的扩大。     

Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities

The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.     

90年代以来中国城市人口结构体系分析

随着中国城市化进程的加快,中国城市人口结构体系中各种不同规模城市的比重发生变化,其中特大城市和小城市的比重下降。另外,通过比较东、中、西部地区的城市人口结构发现,西部地区的城市人口结构不合理,大城市的比重过少。     

城市人口和计划生育工作新机制研究

多年来,我国人口和计划生育工作的重点、难点一直在农村。而城市人口和计划生育工作一直走在全国前列,不仅有效控制了人口过快增长,为全国人口控制目标的实现作出了积极贡献,而且创造了许多好经验,对农村起到很好的示范、带头和辐射作用,为统筹解决人口问题打下了良好的基础。但是随着外部环境和工作任务、要求的变化,随着社会主义市场经济体制的建立和城市经济、社会的迅速发展,城市化进程的大大加快,城市计划生育工作开始面临许多新情况、新问题,必须加快改革与创新的步伐。     

从“城乡二元结构”到“城市二元结构”及其影响

在我国工业化和城市化快速发展过程中,传统体制下形成的以户籍制度为核心的“城乡二元结构”不仅没有消除,反而逐步向城市蔓延,伴随着农村劳动力进城就业,在城市中形成了规模庞大的农民工阶层,他们与城市居民共同构成了“城市二元结构”。“城市二元结构”的日益强化,将导致严重的城市贫困问题,加大城市管理的难度,并造成城市化进程的不稳定。为此,应从城市和农村两个维度加以考虑,积极推动土地制度改革,加强城乡统一社会保障体系建设,加强农村基础教育和职业培训,建立以社会保障制度为核心的征地补偿机制,逐步消除“城市二元结构”。     

Study on Asia's growing cities: Republic of Korea

Focus in this discussion of migration and urbanization in Korea is on the following: historical perspective, implications of urban growth, urbanization trends and population distribution, patterns of migration, socioeconomic differences, and population redistribution policies. Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in Asia. Attempts to deal successfully with this phenomenon have met with varying degrees of success. Population concentration in the capital region continues to be a problem and has resulted in acute housing shortages, rapidly rising land prices, and on encroachment of urban land use into prime agricultural land surrounding the Seoul metropolitan region. Between 1955-1975 the population of Seoul increased from 1.6 million to 6.9 million for the capital city proper and to 9.4 million for its metropolitan region, including 5 satellite cities. This fringe spillover began in the late 1960s. The metropolitan area, comprising 4 cities around the fast growing city of Busan in the south, was formed in the mid-1970s with 3.2 million people. At this time major policy concerns center on the demographic phenomenon of continued concentrations in the Seoul and Busan regions. Problem issues which persist include nonfarm polarization, regional imbalance, diverging intra-sectoral incomes, and the aging rural labor force. Despite its nearness to the demilitarized zone, Seoul was and continues to be the focal point of economic and educational opportunity. The early 1960s brought little variation in migration and urbanization trends. In 1961 family planning and planned economic development were initiated but their impact came several years later. The overall urban growth rate dropped from 5.4 to 4.6% in the 1960-1966 period, and Seoul's pace of expansion slowed down to an annual average of 6.5%. Yet, the capital continued its urbanizing dominance. By 1975 Korea had 3 cities with a population of over 3 million: Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. In 1975 48.4% of the country's population of 34.7 million lived in the 35 cities designated as urban. Migrants comprised 21.5% of the 1970 national population, and the shift was rural-urban for almost 3/4 of them. Korea's industrial takeoff during the mid-1960s had 2 noteworthy effects: rising urban wages doubled rural income levels in real terms by 1970; and the exodus from the countryside was so intense that the rural population shrank between 1965-1970, for the 1st time since the Korean War. A successful family planning program had helped to lower the annual population growth rate to 1.9% by the late 1970s, but heavy out-migration from rural areas was the major factor.     

城市外来务工人员的工作和居住环境及其健康效应——以深圳为例

20世纪80年代以来,我国快速的人口流动与事实城市化对城市环境与人口健康提出了严峻的挑战。本研究通过在深圳市开展的调查,分析了城市外来务工人员的工作、生活环境特征与身心健康状况,初步检验了环境因素对外来务工人员身心健康的净效应。研究发现,相对于其他社会经济因素而言,居住环境和工作环境对外来务工人员的健康具有更为突出的影响。改善外来务工人员的工作和居住环境、倡导良好的保健行为和生活习惯,对于改善其健康状况具有重要意义。     

未来全国和不同区域人口城镇化水平预测

城镇化将是我国未来几十年社会经济发展的动力之一。从人口学的角度讲,在加速城镇化过程中,人口三大因素,即出生、死亡、迁移的变化中,人口城乡迁移将是核心问题。本文在城镇化发展的中方案假设下,利用ⅡASA的模型对全国和地区未来30年人口城镇化水平进行预测。结果显示了全国和不同区域的城镇化长期趋势;揭示了城乡间的迁移和农村居民身份的改变,是城镇地区人口高速增长的重要因素。伴随城镇化的加速,农村地区人口老龄化速度快于城市。     

流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位:三群体研究

关于流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位问题,过去已有大量文献,但研究重点是农民工。这里把外来市民纳入观察视野,利用2008年"迁移和流动劳动力与中国大城市发展"调查数据,分析工资收入和社会保险参与的影响因素。主要研究发现:在工资收入上,不同户籍身份劳动者之间没有净差异;在养老保险和工伤保险参与上,本市居民、外来市民和农民工参与的可能性依次递减。这意味着,工资收入已经基本上由劳动力市场决定,而社会保险参与依然与户籍身份有关。不过,这种关联方式已经从过去的城乡户籍身份歧视转向本地/非本地权益差异。     

人口流动对农村人口老龄化的影响研究——基于“五普”和“六普”数据分析

我国农村人口老龄化程度和提高的速度全面超越了城市,这与当前的人口城市化进程密切相关。人口流动的年龄选择性,使得农村流出人口平均年龄和老年人口比例都远低于农村人口整体水平。流动人口内部在不断地"更新",年轻的流动人口不断替代年老的流动人口,从而保持较年轻的年龄结构,这种人口流动的年龄选择性加速了农村人口老龄化。通过人口老龄化模型的进一步分析发现,在2000～2010年间,农村人口自然老化速度基本保持稳定。而随着农村流动人口的增加,其对农村人口老龄化速度的影响从2000～2005年间的0.031岁/年增加到2006～2010年间的0.07岁/年;农村流出人口对农村人口平均年龄增加的贡献也从8.04%上升到16.91%,人口流动已成为农村人口老龄化的重要推动力。从人口流动的角度,需要关注农村留守老人的照料问题,进一步完善农村社会保障体系以及解决如何让流动人口在城市沉淀下来等问题。     

中国老年人口迁移的选择性

本文利用2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据,描述老年人口跨地市级迁移的结构特征。研究发现,我国老年人口依旧把经济发达地带、大城市作为主要迁入地,与青壮年人口迁移方向产生同构。城乡老年迁移人口在迁移动机上存在很大的差别,城市户籍老年迁移人口受家庭因素驱动更大,农村户籍老年人的迁移原因更多元。从对迁入地的影响来看,国内老年迁移人口的迁入地过于集中,将对迁入地的社会医疗服务设施等构成巨大的压力。