Perspectives on determinants of social welfare: introduction

In this commentary we discuss and elaborate on a number of topics that have been raised in the articles in this issue. The first topic treated is causality. All scientists are aware of the difficulties of making causal inferences in non‐experimental settings, and in many cases arguments are forwarded that support the causal interpretation of the reported relationships. Questions of bi‐directional causality, nonlinear relationships and the importance of omitted variables are discussed, as is the supporting evidence that in some cases comes from experimental studies. The second topic is the level of analysis employed in the empirical analyses and the difficulty of interpreting findings at a different level of aggregation than the level applied in these analyses. In this context, the importance of applying a person‐orientation is pointed out to ensure that the findings are interpretable at the level of the single individual. Even in individual‐level analyses, this can be problematic if one relies on group statistics produced within a variable‐oriented framework. The third topic concerns how to handle interactions and nonlinear relationships. The fourth topic concerns the importance of improving measurements so that a good correspondence is achieved between them and the theoretical conceptualisations. The fifth and last topic is concerned with the argument that different ways of investigating the generalisability of the results to different populations should be tried.     

Causality in Contemporary American Sociology: An Empirical Assessment and Critique

Using a unique data set of causal usage drawn from research articles published between 2006–2008 in the American Journal of Sociology and American Sociological Review, this article offers an empirical assessment of causality in American sociology. Testing various aspects of what we consider the conventional wisdom on causality in the discipline, we find that (1) “variablistic” or “covering law” models are not the dominant way of making causal claims, (2) research methods affect but do not determine causal usage, and (3) the use of explicit causal language and the concept of “mechanisms” to make causal claims is limited. Instead, we find that metaphors and metaphoric reasoning are fundamental for causal claims‐making in the discipline. On this basis, we define three dominant causal types used in sociology today, which we label the Probabilistic, Initiating and Conditioning types. We theorize this outcome as demonstrating the primary role that cognitive models play in providing inference‐rich metaphors that allow sociologists to map causal relationships on to empirical processes.     

Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt during the period 1960–2001 within a trivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework (investment being the additional variable). We employ four different measures of financial development and apply Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error-correction (VEC) methodology. Our results strongly support the view that financial development and economic growth are mutually causal, that is, causality is bi-directional. Furthermore, we find that financial development causes economic growth through both increasing resources for investment and enhancing efficiency. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that the Egyptian government launched in 1991 and to improve the efficiency of the financial system to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long-term economic growth.     

Laziness or liberation? Labor market policies and workers' attitudes toward employment flexibility

This study examined the relationship between labor market policies and employees' willingness to make concessions in order to avoid unemployment. In contrast to previous work that analyzed the behavior of employers and the unemployed, we examined how labor market policies influence employees' flexibility. Multilevel modeling techniques were applied to a data set that was created by combining individual‐level data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) with country‐level information from the Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development. The main findings of our analyses were that dismissal protection and unemployment benefits do make a difference to employees' willingness to make concessions, and that the relationships between the willingness to make concessions and labor market policies are nonlinear. Substantively, these nonlinear relationships suggest that employees' willingness to be flexible is negatively associated with both “too much” and “too little” social protection.     

社会资本与地位获得——简单与复杂的因果机制和因果联结

传统观点强调所动员的社会资本独立于行动者个人资本带来地位回报的因果机制,是一种基于简单因果关系类型的理论建构。基于复杂因果关系视角,本文强调总体社会对社会位置的社会必要性效率约束,所动员的社会资本带来地位回报的过程,是以行动者自身人力资本为条件的复杂因果机制。观察社会资本与地位获得复杂因果关系的研究假设,应着重审视社会资本与人力资本复合结果与地位获得之间的正向关联性。
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Housing and the business cycle in South Africa

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period.     

图形的逻辑力量：因果图的概念及其应用

本文旨在系统性地引介因果图方法,一种社会科学领域新近发展起来的探究因果推断的非参数估计工具。首先对因果图的基本概念和构型进行介绍,讨论变量之间不同“通路”对应的开启和阻断规则及因果推断中的三种偏差来源,即混淆偏差、过度控制偏差、内生性选择偏差。在此基础上,本文将因果图框架与现有定量社会科学研究中基于回归模型的因果推断方法思路进行融合,结合实际案例使用因果图阐释包括遗漏变量、样本选择、自选择及联立性在内的四种内生性问题,并对多元回归与匹配、代理变量、实验、工具变量、面板模型等因果推断方法的运行机制进行了图形化。最后,本文使用因果图厘清一些关于因果推断的不准确理解。     

Moving towards hybridity in causal explanation: The example of citizen participation

The puzzle of causal explanation is a core issue for social science. Searches for causal patterns can be overly mechanistic, seen for example in the desire for the magic bullet in policy, or the lionising of the celebrity policy interventions of the moment. Emphasis in policy interventions on transferable practice is often dismissed as naive for failing to recognise the importance of context, contingency, and complexity. However, a focus on highly context‐specific narratives, drawn from single cases, can be equally problematic and exacerbate rather than help the problem of reification of knowledge. This paper makes a reflective theoretical contribution to the debate on the need to tackle the dilemma of contingency versus certainty in causal explanation in the social sciences. It attempts to address this issue through the lens of a specific concrete puzzle of explanation; that of citizen participation in policy. Citizen participation is a salient policy topic, which demands a thorough understanding of causation. Using extended empirical examples of citizen participation in policy serves to highlight the intractability of different traditions of causal explanation and grounds the need for greater compatibility in approaches. The paper then offers two propositions centring on the notions of transdisciplinarity and hybridity in research practices and methodologies. It concludes with a discussion of more and less desirable forms of hybridity.     

Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship

The validity of “augmented” Wagner’s Law is evaluated using a sample of twelve OECD countries over the period of 1995–2015. The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is utilized to detect the direction of causality between government spending and GDP, focusing on cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and structural breaks. The results show a causal relationship in favor of Wagner’s Law in seven countries, thus GDP is long-run forcing to government expenditures and that the causality runs from the former to the latter variable. The policy implication of the findings is that the upholding of Wagner’s Law in the presence of aging population growth and increasing demand for welfare services may force policy makers to raise taxes or it leads to excessive borrowing which might affect sustainability of public finances.     

Renewable energy,CO2 emissions and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?

Renewable energy appears to be the most optimal alternative to fossil fuel and the widely accepted pathway towards the mitigation of climate change. However, the costs of adopting renewable energy are high, and it appears the wealth of nations, the stages of economic development and growth and institutional willingness and quality are important in winning this global challenge. However, there is limited information on the interplay of all the factors that are perceived as critical in moving the world towards the use of renewable energy sources to meet most of the domestic and industrial energy needs. This study investigates the inter-temporal causal relationship between institutions, renewable energy, carbon emissions and economic growth for 45 sub-Saharan Africa countries using annual data for the period 1960–2017. We used the generalised method of moment panel vector autoregression (GMM-PVAR) technique to explore the linkages. From a general perspective, the results reveal that no causal relationship exists between institutions and economic growth, but a bidirectional causality exists between economic growth and renewable energy. Our results indicate that economic growth causes carbon emissions, and institutions are more likely to respond to carbon emissions and renewable energy but prompts no causality exists between carbon emissions and renewable energy. Interestingly, these results differ between countries with different institutional origin. The policy implications are discussed.     

Does social capital determine health? Empirical evidence from MENA countries

Using data from the World Value Survey (2010–2012) for 18 MENA countries, this paper investigates the causal relationship between social capital and health by applying simultaneous-equations based on structural modeling and IVs regression. Our main findings corroborate the hypothesis of reverse causality between social capital and health i.e. bidirectional causality running from social capital to health and from health to social capital is identified. Furthermore, our empirical findings show that individual-level social capital appears more salient in determining health, while community-level social capital seems less relevant in explaining health differences between individuals. Overall, the present study makes evident that high levels of social capital (i.e. high levels of social participation and high levels of trust) and high individual-level socioeconomic factors (i.e. high levels of income and high levels of education) may generate better health outcomes that policymakers must take into account to improve individual and community health.     

The Fallacy of Misplaced Intentionality in Social Representation Research

This paper argues that social representations cannot be used as independent variables in causal explanations of social behaviour. It is shown that the structure of investigations often follows a causally explanatory design despite explicit statements to the contrary by the researchers. This fact is analyzed with three investigations. It is argued that verbal data used to assess the contents of a representation as independent variable are logically equivalent to data obtained from the "dependent" overt behaviour. Therefore these two kinds of data must be seen as two illustrations of the same representational contents. The researchers'preference for using verbal data to assess the independent variable and the tendency to introduce a causal relationship between representation and behaviour is shown to result from misplacing folk-beliefs. Folk-beliefs about intentional causality, it is shown, pertain to the same level as other beliefs about the world on the part of the subjects. Hence they are part of the folk-representation itself and must be treated as such; their use in scientific accounts of the belief-action relationship is not implied by data on rational belief systems. It is suggested to conceptualize social representations as integral units of beliefs and action which may be used to explain causally subsequent contingent social events. The function of folk-beliefs in intentional causality for the self-concept of rational people and for social accountability is discussed.     

‘If kids don't feel safe they don't do anything’: young people's views on seeking and receiving help from Children's Social Care Services in England

This paper presents findings from qualitative interviews with 24 young people (11–17 years) who have been referred to Children's Social Care Services in England. The paper explores young people's experiences of help seeking and their experiences of receiving help for maltreatment through statutory agencies. A central finding is the importance of relationships for young people when seeking and receiving help. It is through trusting relationships with professionals that young people are most likely to disclose maltreatment and/or engage with services. The paper concludes that young people's expectations and needs are not always met by the current safeguarding system and that the system needs to become more child‐centred if it is to address the concerns maltreated young people have consistently voiced through research.     

Does Radical Partisan Politics Affect National Income Distributions? Congressional Polarization and Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–2008*

Recent research indicates that political polarization in Congress and income inequality share a closely linked positive association. But virtually no studies examine the direction of influence between these variables as it is assumed that income inequality causes political polarization. The major purpose of this investigation is to examine the temporal causal ordering of these variables. Methods. This study constructs a time series national‐level data set with information for the years 1913 to 2008. Vector autoregression and granger causality tests are utilized to explore the temporal causal ordering of congressional polarization and the income share of the top 0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0 percent of earners in the United States. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity regressions are also employed to assess the strength of the association between congressional polarization and top incomes net of relevant control variables. Results. The findings indicate that the past values of congressional polarization are better predictors of top income shares than vice versa. The results also demonstrate that polarization in the House of Representatives produces a more consistent and robust connection with top incomes than polarization in the Senate. Lastly, congressional polarization only produces robust associations with the income share of the top 0.1 and 1.0 percent of earners but not for the top 5.0 and 10.0 percent. Conclusion. While the Senate possesses more powerful negative agenda control procedures to stifle the legislative processes vis‐à‐vis the House, it is polarization in the latter that returns the more robust associations with income inequality.     

Social workers' views on community involvement in child protection work in Italy

Involvement of the community is a topic that is gaining increasing importance in the debate on child protection social work. However, the empirical findings that help to understand the factors which enable social workers to involve community actors successfully are still scarce. The article presents the results of an empirical pilot study carried out on a sample of 24 child protection social workers employed in four public agencies in Italy. The results of the research highlight the complexity of the factors that influence the ability of social workers to involve the community in schemes involving children and their families and the importance of constructing a community‐based approach that directly involves local‐level institutions and policy programmes.     

Critical Realism and Causality: Tracing the Aristotelian Legacy

Rom Harré's generative account of causality has been drawn on heavily by advocates of critical realism. Yet Harré argues that critical realists often exaggerate the extent to which powerful causal explanations of social phenomena can be developed. Certain proponents of critical realism have responded to Harré's criticisms by suggesting that it is useful to consider the relevant issues in relation to the familiar Aristotelian classification of four causes. In this paper I contribute to this debate and pursue a similar strategy. The paper adds to existing contributions in two ways. Firstly, I outline how Harré sees his generative account of causality as linking up with Aristotelian themes. It emerges that Harré at times conceives of his generative theory as part of an alternative to the Aristotelian system while at other times he draws connections between it and a reformulated account of formal causality. Secondly, I argue that when we consider the positions of Harré and proponents of critical realism on the scope of causal explanation in the social realm in relation to the interpretation of final causes offered by another philosopher profoundly influenced by the Aristotelian tradition, namely Charles Peirce, we can see both as limited in certain respects.     

The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. In this paper, we re-examine the causal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth by conducting the panel Granger causality test recently developed by (Hurlin, 2004) and (Hurlin, 2005) and by utilizing a richer panel data set which includes 182 countries that cover the period from 1950 to 2004. Our empirical results strongly support both Wagner's law and the hypothesis that government spending is helpful to economic growth regardless of how we measure the government size and economic growth. When the countries are disaggregated by income levels and the degree of corruption, our results also confirm the bi-directional causality between government activities and economic growth for the different subsamples of countries, with the exception of the low-income countries. It is suggested that the distinct feature of the low-income countries is likely owing to their inefficient governments and inferior institutions.     

Narrative skills predict peer adjustment across elementary school years

The importance of peer adjustment in middle childhood coincides with developing social cognitive and discursive skills that include the ability to make personal narrative accounts. Authoring personal stories promotes attention to the sequence of events, the causal connections between events, the moral significance of what has happened, and the motives that drive human action: these skills may be critical for the establishment and maintenance of satisfying peer relationships during elementary school. This study extended previous research by considering whether narrative skills in written stories about peer interactions predicted peer adjustment. As part of an ongoing longitudinal study, 92 children wrote narratives about peer experiences and completed surveys on measures of peer adjustment for two school years. Cross‐lagged panel models indicated that chronological and thematic coherence and reports of moral concerns in narratives in the first year of the study contributed to lower peer disliking in the subsequent academic year. Reports of motives in Year 1 narratives contributed to lower levels of loneliness and peer victimization in Year 2. Writing personal narratives that are coherent and attentive to moral concerns and motives may be especially beneficial for children who have difficulty connecting with peers. We discuss implications for classroom practices.     

Longitudinal causal relationship between depression and self-esteem in Korean older adults

This study aimed to examine the longitudinal causal relationship between depression and self-esteem (SE) in older Koreans and analyze gender differences in this correlation. Participants were 4742 older adults aged ≥65 years in baseline 2018 from the Korea Welfare Panel Study. Depression and SE were measured every year from 2018 to 2021. This study estimated causal relationships using the autoregressive cross-lagged model and analyzed gender differences using a multigroup approach. The findings indicate that depression and SE in older adults support the reciprocal causal model, but there are no gender differences. The study recommends that both depression and SE should be considered in the design of social work intervention programs for older adults but can disregard gender differences.     

社会网络对生活满意度的影响研究——基于京、沪、粤三地的分析

本研究以2008年和2009年在北京市、上海市和广东省进行的“中国家庭追踪调查”的数据为基础，运用多层线性模型和协方差模型探讨了社会网络对生活满意度的影响程度。研究表明，拜年网中朋友的比例、邻里互动频率和非正式社会参与都对生活满意度有积极影响，生活满意度与拜年网规模之间则呈现出“∩”型的相关关系。协方差分析结果表明，社会网络规模的扩大、朋友比例的上升和非正式社会参与频率的增加都有助于提高个人的生活满意度，但邻里互动频率的变化对个人生活满意度的提升作用还有待进一步的研究。