A survey of population in the ESCAP region

In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.     

On "being a prostitute"

The book "On Being a Prostitute" (Perkins & Bennett, 1985) is a valuable contribution to the sociology of deviance and sexual ideologies. However, comprehensive as it is, the book presents certain omissions and flaws, with implications for both is empirical data and theoretical underpinnings. In focusing on male (homoerotic) prostitution, and drawing upon Bennett's (1983) "Twenty-Ten" survey (which forms the main empirical base of that aspect of the book), I argue that certain categories of male prostitutes have been excluded. These omissions, I suggest, were necessary to allow Bennett's hypothesis that most male prostitution derives from economic necessity--a recurrent economic determinism reminiscent of Havelock Ellis (1906/1936), and somewhat contrary to a broader structural approach (see Mathews, 1983).     

20世纪50-60年代中国人口统计数据考略

论文指出,关于1959-1961年人口死亡规模的争议,源于国家统计局1983年公布的历史人口数据的缺陷。论文验证了国家统计局关于数据来源于公安部门的说明,指出1983年公布的数据就是当年的统计数。论文利用公安系统1957年的大规模分年龄人口和分年龄死亡人口的统计,建构了分年龄人口在1953-1964年间的生存率。根据1953年人口普查分年龄人口与生存率,计算了1964年的预期人口,比较了其与1964年人口普查时实际的分年龄人口,证实了当年确实有大量的人口损失存在。     

Can the birth quantity be known one year earlier?]

In order to carry out the population control policy, efforts are needed to control pregancies and births. Studies show that 3 types of people may deliver babies next year: 1) those who are married at the end of the current year but have not become pregnant, 2) those who have 1 child at the present time and plan to have an additional child for special reasons, and 3) those who may get married during the 1st season of the coming year. Persons from the 1st 2 categories are easy to calculate or estimate. Persons from the 3rd category represent the core in predicting the birthrate for the coming year. Marriage ages and the distribution of dates for marriage are the 2 major sources of information for estimating the total number of persons who belong to the 3rd category. In the 1st step, we need to figure the ratio between the number of marriages in the 1st season and the total marriages for the whole year. Based upon available data for the past 3 years, a formula can be used to calculate this ratio. The marriage numbers for the 1st season of 1982 multiplied by the above percentage will be the possible number of marriages for 1982. Then, the possible number of births can be calculated by taking the birth ratio multiplied by possible marriages for 1982. Using the same method, the possible birth numbers for 1983 can be calculated. The above information shows that the total predicted births for 1983 includes 3 elements: 1) the number of those who aare married but not pregant and plan to give birth in 1983, 2) the number of those who received special permission to have a 2nd child in 1983, and 3) the number of those who may get married in 1982 and 1983 and who may give birth in 1983.     

A preliminary analysis of negative population growth in Taicang County]

This report attempts to analyze the negative population growth and its significance in Tai-Cang County, China. Based on population data provided by local Tai-Cang authorities, family planning effectively lowered the birth rate from 11.9% between 1960-1969 to 3.0% between 1979-1983. The rate of single-child families grew enormously while the number of 2-child families reached a record low. Families with more than 2 children virtually vanished by 1983. Moreover, while a younger marriage age in 1981 and 1982 contributed to a slight increase in the birth rate, new marriage laws in 1983 caused an older marriage age and acted to lower the birth rate due to the fact that mothers were bearing children at an older age. A change in population components also influenced this low birth rate: the county population below the age of 14 is 21.2% compared with 33.6% nationally; however, the percentage of the population in this county over the age of 65 is 8.5% while the national figure is 4.9%. Finally, the marriagable population of females (i.e., 23 years old) was slightly lower between 1982-1984 due to the low birth rate seen from 1959-1961. The findings indicate that family planning is effective in lowering birth rates along with late marriages and older childbearing ages. The negative population growth in Tai-Cang County, however, is a temporary phenomenon. The indications are that the problems and shortcomings of family planning must be overcome, regional population planning must be improved, and the study of eugenics and optimum population reinforced. The report also notes that the population trend is toward aging.     

Group-based differences in intra-generational earnings mobility in Israel

High earnings inequality, by itself, is less of a problem if a society is characterized by high earnings mobility rates. Using the matched 1983–1995 census file created by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, which includes data for individuals who were included in both the 1983 and 1995 demographic samples of the census, this study focuses on the differential mobility rates of the various gender–ethnic groups in the Israeli labor market, as well as on the determinants of upward earnings mobility. The findings indicate that rising inequality between the dominant and subordinate groups slows down the impact of high rates of earnings mobility in Israel. Specifically, native-born Ashkenazi men (the most advantaged group) have a firm hold on the high earnings positions. Furthermore, the data show that the earnings gap between Ashkenazi men and most other groups has increased over time. Although the other groups, particularly women, also experienced some upward mobility, this mobility took place across the lower quintiles, where earnings are low.     

人口年龄结构转变对我国综合要素生产率的影响——基于人力资本的视角

通过人口普查资料重新构建了年龄别人力资本存量。利用28个省份1983—2007年间的面板数据分析了年龄别人力资本对综合要素生产率的影响。发现人力资本对综合要素生产率的贡献存在着阈值效应．只有高存量的年龄别人力资本才会有促进作用。     

A survey of work done by the China family planning association

The China Family Planning Association was set up in May 1980 as a nongovernmental organization under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Funds come from the government, international organizations, and individual or community donations. 13 branches have been established so far. The Association has contributed to publicity, education, and research: members have given lectures on family planning, genetics, and population theory, and have helped develop contraceptives. The lectures on population problems have been published. In addition, the Association's periodical "Ren Sheng" is published bimonthly, and has a circulation of 125,000. Meeting have been convened for the exchange of information and experience among family planning workers. The Association organized tripartite seminars with IPPF and JOICFP in June and October, 1983. Under the auspices of the Association, 8 trainees have been sent to the David Owen Center in the United Kingdom for a Year's study, and 1 trainee was sent to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The Association was accepted as a full member of the IPPF at the conference held in Nairobi, Kenya, in November, 1983.     

The "new gay" lesbians

The three-stage progression toward homosexual identity that Minton and McDonald (1983/1984) delineate in Bisexual and Homosexual Identities (De Cecco & Shively, eds., 1983/1984) is generally not applicable to women who have come to lesbianism through the radical feminist movement of the past 15 years. Their progression toward a lesbian identity was in an order roughly the reverse of what Minton and McDonald describe: Through the movement they came to understand that society's norms can be critically evaluated and that heterosexuality was detrimental to women's freedom, often before they had homosexual genital experience. The "egocentric" stage for these women may have been no different from that of heterosexuals. They may have escaped the guilt and isolation associated with the "sociocentric" stage because they first viewed themselves as lesbian in the context of a supportive social group. There is also some evidence to suggest that many premovement lesbians made their decision to identify as homosexual on the basis of their political views about heterosexuality. Thus, they too may not have experienced Minton and McDonald's three-stage progression toward identity.     

Weighing the shift from sexual identity to sexual relationships

The shift in inquiry from sexual identity to a conceptualization of sexual relationship, as proposed by De Cecco and Shively (1983/1984), has advantages for research on sexuality, but psychological and political disadvantages for homosexuals, which are briefly summarized in this analysis.     

Sterilization and IUD target achieved

Voluntary acceptance of permanent contraceptive methods showed an upward trend in Bangladesh over the past 5 months. 62,399 sterilizations were performed in October, 1983, a 98% realization of the monthly target. 70,618 sterilizations were performed in November, 1983, a 111% achievement. IUD acceptors in October totaled 22,004, a 142% achievement, and the figure was 24,324 in November, a 157% achievement of the monthly target. In October 1982 the total number of sterilization acceptors was 54,705; the figure was 9802 for IUD acceptors. In November 35,485 persons accepted sterilization and 9682 accepted IUDs.     

Indigenous fertility in Australia: updating Alan Gray

Journal of Population Research - Although he was not the first scholar to investigate it, there is little question that the Ph.D. research of Alan Gray, completed in 1983, represented a landmark in...     

To grasp the family planning program early, carefully and surely according to the law of reproduction]

China's February 1982 Directive on Improving Family Planning Work stipulated that family planning should be incorporated into national economic and social planning by understanding it early, carefully, and surely according to the law of reproduction. Understanding family planning early means to implement the policy of birth control as a primary goal, to plan early for births, and to carry out birth control measures, i.e., formulating a plan is the basis of understanding early. For example, the following must be considered when mapping out a plan for 1983: the number of fertile women who wanted children but who remained childless for 3 years of marriage; those who conceived late in 1982 and will deliver in 1983; the number of newlyweds over 23 years of age who have not planned a pregnancy; those with 1 child over 4 years who due to unusual circumstances will have a 2nd child; the number of people planning marriages before March 1983. The next step is to make arrangements, which include submitting individual requests, getting permission from communes and approval from the general public, and delivering contraceptives to the homes of newlyweds and mothers. 9 months after arrangements are completed, adjustments must be made, e.g., those who were unsuccessful in their plan to conceive this year will try the next year. To understand carefully is to understand the concept, circumstances, and data of family planning and thus be able to administer it scientifically. This means primarily controlling fertile women who are newlyweds, mothers of 1 child, and mothers of multiple children. To understand surely is to conform to the organization, concept, policy, planning, and measures of family planning. This means training basic level birth control cadres in population theory and methods of family planning. In addition, it means persuading the masses to be enthusiastic, diligent, fearless, understanding, and to show initiative toward family planning.     

Frank wallace notestein (1902-1983)

Abstract Frank W. Notestein, one of the architects of modern demography, died on 18 February 1983, after a long struggle with emphysema. President Emeritus of the Population Council, and former Professor of Demography at Princeton University, he had been living in retirement in Newtown, Pennsylvania, with his wife of fifty-six years, née Daphne Limbach.     

Divorce in the family life cycle

"We present the results of [a] study conducted in the years 1986-1988 in three big cities in Poland.... The sample population consisted of persons who divorced in the years 1983-1984....[The focus is on] a detailed evaluation of the sources of divorce and a discussion of the determinants, in relation to the family life cycle. The paper constitutes an attempt at an interdisciplinary approach to the phenomenon of divorce; the approach combines demographic and sociological perspectives."     

Gay SM in pornography and reality

A picture of SM interactions as depicted by pornographical issues of SM between 1974 and 1983 is presented by means of a correlational study of pornography. Actual SM scenarios are then compared with the depiction in magazines. The changes that have occurred over more than a decade reflected changes in the nature of violence and sexuality.     

Ethnic and Birth Weight Differences in Cause-Specific Infant Mortality

This article examines ethnic differences in cause-specific infant mortality, using linked birth and infant death records from a cohort of New Mexican singleton infants, 1980-1983. The research, which applies log-linear analysis, focuses on the combined influences of ethnicity, birth weight, maternal age, and plurality on birth outcomes--that is, on infant survival and deaths due to perinatal, congenital, and respiratory diseases and to sudden infant death syndrome. The results confirm the pronounced impact of birth weight on infant mortality and identify similarities and differences among Anglo, Hispanic, and American Indian babies with respect to cause-specific infant mortality.     

Estimates of long-term immigration to the United States: Moving US statistics toward United Nations concepts

US immigration data are revised to reflect the UN demographic concept of long-term immigration. Long-term immigration is measured by the number of new immigrants (permanent resident aliens) arriving in the year, temporary migrant arrivals (nonimmigrants) who subsequently adjust to permanent resident status, arrivals of asylees and refugees, and nonimmigrants who arrive during the year and stay for more than twelve months before departing. The estimates of long-term immigration for 1983 are compared to official INS statistics on alien immigration. Significant differences emerge according to country of origin, age, and state of intended residence. A method of producing current estimates of long-term immigration is illustrated.     

A primary research on the population influence on ecological environment in the mountain area of the South An Hui Province]

The 16 counties in the mountain region of South Anhui Province have a land mass of 29,176 sq. km and a 1983 population of 491,720,000, a majority of whom are farmers. Forests, tea and grains are the villages' major sources of income. 80% of the area is hilly; the climate is temperate and rainfall is adequate. In recent years, a rapid population increase and inattention to proper use of natural resources have eroded the environment. Since 1949 the population of this area increased 70%, putting tremendous pressure on the land and fuel. The demand for housing, factories, transportation and communication to accomodate the population increase constantly decreases the availability of farmland. Arable land decreased by about 3,000,000 sq. acres between 1949 and 1983. Because the average individual acreage is small, production is low, leading to frequent grain shortages. Forests are then destroyed to make farmland, but in the process, the flora and fauna are disturbed while production remains low and uneven. In addition, firewood, the main source of fuel, will not be replenished rapidly enough to meet the needs of the growing population. The quality of this mountain population also influences ecology. Almost 80% of the people are semi-literate, traditional in their attitudes and customs, and unreceptive to new ideas. Family planning has not been successful here, nor is there a deep understanding of the consequences of deforestation. It is necessary, then, to control this area's population growth, improve the population's quality, raise its environmental consciousness, and utilize its resources effectively.     

The Valuation of Non-Monetary Consumption in Household Surveys

Many social indicators are based on household consumption information. The valuation of non-monetary operations is crucial for the analysis of consumption surveys in developing countries because of the importance of own-consumption and transfers in kind. What are the price statistics used in the valuation of consumption indicators? How is the available price information exploited to produce consumption indicators? How can the different steps of the valuation process be analysed? We explore these questions by presenting the valuation method for the consumption used in rural Rwanda for the 1983 consumption survey, and by proposing a general model of valuation algorithm. This is useful not only for improving such algorithms, but also for assessing the impact of the valuation process on economic analyses.