中国的家庭结构转变--来自居住方式与人口因素的作用

基于历次人口普查数据,利用SOCSIM微观模拟方法将家庭转变的关键影响因素分解为人口因素和居住方式因素两个方面,并进一步将人口因素分解为人口惯性、生育率、死亡率和结婚率四个层面进行计量分析.结果发现,当前人口变动相对稳定,较小的波动使其在家庭转变中的贡献率相对较小,而居住方式的影响相对较大;对人口因素的进一步分解还发现,人口惯性及生育率水平的作用相对更大,生育率水平、结婚率水平带来的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是一致的,均提高了一人户、一代户、二代户的人口比重,降低了三代及以上户的人口比重.与之相反,死亡率的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是相反的.     

控制人口的关键是普及义务教育

影响人口生育率的因素是多方面、错综复杂的。一个地区的经济发展水平、城市化水平、医疗卫生状况、人们受文化教育的程度、人口政策等经济与非经济因素,对生育率的变化,都有直接或间接的影响。目前,人口学界越来越关注提高人口文化素质对降低生育率的作用。但是,在影响生育率的诸因素中,文化因素的作用与地位到底怎样,人们并不是很明确的。例如“浙江生育率变动的分析”(见《人口与发展》,中国人民大学人口理论研究所编)一文指出:文化教育是影响生育率的重要因素、经济是影响生育率的决定性因素、人口政策是影响生育率的关键因素。然而,各个因素对降低我国当前生育水平的净作用大小如何、文化因素在所有影响生育率变动的因素中又占据怎样的地位,该文的分析是不清楚的,缺乏进一步深入的定量分析。本文利用我国第三次、第四次人口普查、1987年1％人口抽样调查资料和历年统计年鉴资料对文化因素与生育率的关系进行定量研究。     

社会经济发展的生育率效应研究

本文运用相关、回归和路径分析方法，从时序与截面数据相结合的角度，对中国社会经济发展的生育率效应作了系统实证分析。研究指出经济发展水平是决定生育率水平的终极性因素，但其直接影响力较小，更多地是通过中介变量间接影响生育率的变动。经济发展是中国生育率下降的基础和实现人口控制的长期条件，文化水平在生育率转变中起特殊重要的作用。作者还分析了造成生育率时序、地区和城乡差异的原因及进一步降低生育率水平的对策建议。     

关于当前生育影响因素的思考

根据我国生育水平来分析影响当前我国生育的因素,并结合社会经济发展,进一步探讨生育影响因素的未来变动与趋势。影响生育的经济因素、社会因素、自然因素以及资源分配或社会平等的政治因素与人们的生育意愿变化等都有抑制生育率提高的作用。生育政策变动、社会保障、人口健康和安全有促进生育率变化的趋向。     

中国人口生育率的下降与人口老龄化

本文提出中国人口老龄化本身并不一定就是问题，伴随着生育率和死亡率的下降而出现的人口老龄化在初期是有利于社会经济发展的；在１９５０～１９９０年的人口年龄构成变动中，生育率下降对人口老龄化的影响远远大于死亡率下降的影响；生育率的下降是中国这一时期人口老龄化的主要影响因素，在低生育率条件下，由于不同队列人口规模的差异和人口惯性的存在，仍然会使中国人口向老龄化发展。     

我国农村经济状况对生育态势的影响

一、一般原理 1.经济发展状况与人口变动存在着密切的相关关系,两者中,经济发展是决定性因素。具体而言,生产力的性质和发展水平决定了人口变动的方向和基本趋势。 2.在死亡率基本稳定的情况下,经济发展主要对生育行为发生影响作用。一般来说,经济发展水平较低时,生育率水平较高;经济发展水平较高,生育率水平则较低。经济发展与生育率呈现负相关,这是人口发展过程的一般规律。     

东北地区长期低生育水平形成原因探析

20世纪70年代中期以来,东北地区人口生育率不断下降。目前东北地区的总和生育率基本与上海、北京持平,成为全国范围内人口生育率最低的地区。以往人们主要从思想观念方面解释东北地区超低人口生育率的形成原因。本文主要从城镇化对人口生育率的一般影响与特殊影响、农村落实计划生育政策的实效、低人口生育率的跨期影响和人口结构变化、受教育程度与人口生育率的关系等方面分析东北地区超低人口生育率的形成原因,结论认为尽管不能完全否定生育观、生育意愿对实际人口生育率的影响,但经济社会发展状况和计划生育政策的落实情况是影响生育水平的最主要因素,生育观和生育意愿在很大程度上是经济社会发展的反映,并随着经济社会的发展而变化。     

中国人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响研究

本文利用相关年份的《中国统计年鉴》和人口普查数据,根据粗出生率与总和生育率的关系与特征,构建了人口年龄结构系数及其对粗出生率变动影响的贡献率指标,分析了建国以来人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响。研究发现：1949—1979年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响很小;1980—1993年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响迅速上升,年龄结构的贡献率增大;1994—2008年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响趋于下降,人口惯性势能在减弱;2009—2011年,受80—90年代出生高峰的影响,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响再次凸显,年龄结构的贡献率迅速增大。从年龄别生育率逐年下降的特点,也可以证明近年推动我国人口增长的力量主要是由于年龄结构带来的惯性增长。     

新人口态势与旧传统观念:在诱发性人口转变中的中国家庭(下)

从人口展望看家庭结构 象生命事件一样,结婚和婚后居住地点的决定,任何时候都在连续地发生着。从社会方面看,它们的数量反映了未来不同时点上达到结婚年龄的人数可能达到的程度。而这部份人可能达到的数量,受生育率水平摆动的影响很大。当生育率上下波动幅度很快、很大时,在新婚人群中的不同类型住户的分布所受到的影响就更明显。     

江苏太仓市低人口生育率原因剖析

江苏太仓持续降低的人口生育率引起人口学界越来越多学者的关注。该地区低人口生育率并不是人口生育过程中的波动造成的,而是呈现出比较稳定的逐年下降的趋势。本文通过历史数据剖析了该地区低人口生育率的成因,并依据在该市的实地调研数据,剖析太仓市妇女二胎生育意愿,预测未来太仓未来人口生育率的变动。     

快速人口转变后的中国长期经济增长—从预期寿命、人力资本投资角度考察

在过去三十年里,中国历经了发达国家要用一百多年才能完成的人口转变过程。生育率、死亡率快速下降,接踵而至的是日益严重的少子、老龄化过程。基于以上背景,本文扩展了Diamond（1965）的基本叠代模型,以不确定性寿命为切入点,在个人的微观行为基础上,致力于分析以下问题：中国是否需要调整当前的计划生育政策;随着人口红利的逐渐消失,中国长期的经济增长如何持续。本文的分析结果显示,预期寿命与生育率、人力资本投资、储蓄率以及经济增长的关系是非单调性的。     

Policy options when population growth slows: The case of Thailand

Thailand reached replacement-level fertility almost a decade ago, although there has been a lag in measuring and recognising the implications of this benchmark event. Fertility could well sink still lower. The momentum of population growth will ensure substantial further increase before the population levels off, but this is not true in all regions. For example, earlier and faster fertility decline in the North, and net outmigration, have led to a situation where some geographical and age segments of the North's population are decreasing. Population policy in Thailand since 1970 has had two major planks: to reduce fertility through an active family planning program, and to distribute population away from the large primate city of Bangkok. The paper discusses whether these policies may need to be modified as a result of the major demographic and socio economic changes that have been taking place. It also discusses the limits to population policy in terms of the likely efficacy of various measures that could be adopted, based on both an assessment of the Thailand situation and the experience of other low-fertility countries.     

Post-disaster fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the changing racial composition of New Orleans

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences—beyond migration-driven population change—generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster’s wake.     

Social and economic factors affecting China fertility transition]

China's fertility rate, affected by various economic, cultural and social factors, is in a state of flux. In analyzing the major factors affecting the change, and in determining a fixed ratio for the degree of effectiveness of each factor, it is possible to improve birth policy in terms of predicting trends in fertility changes. Based on data gathered in 1981, the following observations were made: 1) A look at gross output value for industry and agriculture by geography shows that the more economically developed an area is, the lower is the fertility rate, and that the less economically developed an area is, the higher is the fertility rate. For example, Yunnan, with an average gross output value per person of 406.5 yuan, has a total fertility rate of 3.814, whereas Shanghai's average gross output value per person is 5566.4 yuan, and its total fertility rate is 1.316. 2) Figures comparing educational levels with total fertility rates show that cities with a greater number of women with a middle school education tend to have a lower fertility rate than cities with fewer such women. For example, Beijing's 516,000 middle school educated women have a total fertility rate of 1.589, compared to Anhui's 186,000 middle school educated women who have a total fertility rate of 2.799. Also, among college educated women, the fertility rate is 41.5/1000, the 1 child rate is 88.6%, and the multiple child rate is 1.2%, whereas those women with a primary school education have a fertility rate of 86.4/1000, a 1 child rate of 44.3%, and a multiple child rate of 26.7%. 3) As towns become urbanized, the fertility rate of those towns tend to decline. For example, Sichuan, with an Urbanization Index of 14.3 has total fertility rate of 2.650; Tianjin's Urbanization Index is 68.7, and its total fertility rate is 1.645. 4) A comparison of women engaged in physical labor to those in non-physical jobs shows that the former tend to have a higher fertility rate: women working at physical labor have a fertility rate of 86.7/1000, compared to a fertility rate of 65/1000 for those in non-physical jobs. 5) China's family planning programs advocating late marriage, late births and 1 child per couple in itself does not influence fertility rates, but taken with economic factors, it will have far reaching consequences. For example, cities with high gross output value tend to have a higher rate of 1 child per couple. 6) As the average age at marriage for women rose from 18 years in 1949 to 23 years in 1981, the rate of women having multiple children has declined in all age groups since 1964.     

Institutionalized motivation for fertility limitation in China

Abstract After initial misgivings based on orthodox Marxist ideology regarding population control, the People's Republic of China officially came out in favour of population limitation. The government denies the dire Malthusian prophecy that population will outstrip China's supply of food and natural resources. Instead it supports population limitation to ease the costs of economic growth, which under Chinese conditions requires a strong labour force and a concentration of capital in productive enterprises rather than a high rate of consumption. By applying the experience of the developed nations, China has reduced pre-industrial levels of mortality and morbidity. This has decreased the expense to society of a non-productive populace which dies before it repays the costs of its upbringing and training. As a result, China undoubtedly has a high rate of population growth. Lower fertility will lessen the proportion of children to adult workers and will release females for employment; for these reasons the government advocates fertility control. Observers lack data from the two national censuses (1953-54 and 1964) and registration system to assess China's success in fertility reduction. Instead the patterns of social mobility and social control which shape reproductive motivation must be evaluated. In so doing I address myself to one main question: how has China's approach to economic development in the past five years affected the motivation of her youth to reduce fertility?     

Characteristics of fertility transition in China]

Since 1949 and in particular the 1970s, China's fertility rate has undergone rapid and continuous change. This is a direct reflection of China's success in population control. The decline in China's fertility rate regulated the speed of population growth, altered the population structure, and brought population development to be in line with economic development. Data used in this article are from the National 1/1000 Random Sample of Fertility (1982), the 10% Sample of the 1982 Population Census, 1981, 1983 and 1984 statistical yearbooks, and other data from the Statistics Bureau. China's fertility rate dropped an annual average of 2.5/1000 from 1950-81. However, this time, the fertility rate fluctuated, depending on political, social and economic factors. As the nation prospered, the fertility rate remained stable and high; as China suffered severe economic losses, the fertility rate dropped. A steady decline was evident beginning in 1970 as the government began to propagandize the merits of smaller families. Between 1971-83 the average yearly rate of growth was 1.6%. The number of years a woman was fertile was similar for both urban and rural women in 1964 and 1981; moreover, in 1981 both groups showed a sharp drop in fertility between the ages of 27-35. The 1 child rate for urban women rose from 21.9% in 1964 to 86.6% in 1981. Urban women tend to be more receptive to late marriage, late births, and fewer children. This change in the 1 child rate contributed to the drop in the birth rate of 31.1/1000 in 1964 to 20.9/1000 in 1981.     

Adult Mortality Five Years after a Natural Disaster

Exposure to extreme events has been hypothesized to affect subsequent mortality because of mortality selection and scarring effects of the event itself. We examine survival at and in the five years after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for a population‐representative sample of residents of Aceh, Indonesia who were differentially exposed to the disaster. For this population, the dynamics of selection and scarring are a complex function of the degree of tsunami impact in the community, the nature of individual exposures, age at exposure, and gender. Among individuals from tsunami‐affected communities we find evidence for positive mortality selection among older individuals, with stronger effects for males than for females, and that this selection dominates any scarring impact of stressful exposures that elevate mortality. Among individuals from other communities, where mortality selection does not play a role, there is evidence of scarring with property loss associated with elevated mortality risks in the five years after the disaster among adults age 50 or older at the time of the disaster.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.     

World fertility and the women's situation]

In 1981, total number of childbearing women in the world reached 9.8 hundred million. Their socioeconomic status and fertility level are very important data for the study of women's liberation and population control. Facing limited natural resources and a constant growing demand, many nations are studying how to control the population growth and achieve a "zero population growth." In nations with a high GNP, such as Switzerland, West Germany, and France, fertility is low. On the contrary, countries in central and south Asia and most parts of Africa are the poorest economically, and their fertility rate has remained very high. Another factor which is related to the fertility level is the degree of women's participation in the labor market. In Europe and North America, the percentage of women's participation in economic activities is high, and fertility is low. In Latin America and Africa, fertility is high, and the percentage of women's participation in economic labor is low. From the above, we may conclude that promotion of women's participation in the labor market and better employment conditions will reduce fertility. Another 2 factors related to fertility are marriage age and birth control rate. Late marriage and the extensive use of birth control measures are effective methods for reducing fertility. All the above mentioned factors are closely related to the woman's educational background. If women receive a better education and find better employment opportunities, delay their marriage age, and take birth control measures, fertility will be reduced and the population growth will be under control.