中国人口普查死亡数据质量评估及2010-2020年死亡模式转变分析北大核心

人口的预期寿命和年龄死亡模式是评估人口健康水平、掌握人口发展规律的重要指标。人口普查为掌握年龄死亡模式的变动特点和人口预期寿命水平提供了基础数据,然而根据以往研究文献和对2020年人口普查数据的分析,人口普查所获得的死亡数据存在一定程度的漏报,需要对这一数据质量进行评估和修正。为此,本文根据不同年龄段的死亡特点对布拉斯-罗吉特模型进行适应性调整,使其符合观察年份的死亡模式,获得模型参数,进而实现对2010-2020年死亡数据的校正评估。结果显示2020年人口普查获得的死亡数据中低龄组男性漏报率高于女性,0-9岁男性平均漏报率为75.33%,女性为57.69%,男婴死亡漏报率为85.08%,女婴死亡漏报率为77.80%;70-90岁高龄组死亡漏报率男性平均为22.55%,女性为20.75%,90岁及以上的死亡漏报比较低;老年阶段男性漏报率普遍高于女性。2010年婴儿死亡概率为21.15‰,2020年为8.80‰;2010年出生预期寿命为74.82岁,2020年为78.21岁,10年间预期寿命增长了3.39岁。通过比较分析发现21世纪以来我国人口年龄死亡模式呈现“低龄降低,中龄平稳,中高龄先缓升后陡升,高龄略有回降”的变动态势。这表明进入老龄前期人口死亡概率降低带来一个虚弱累积的过程,达到一定年龄(70-80岁)后,老化速度就会加快虚弱累积的效应,带来更高年龄组失能或死亡概率的加速增长。     

2010年人口普查数据质量评估以及对以往人口变动分析校正

文章采用年龄移算方法进行队列对比对2010年的分性别分年龄人口的漏报或者重报进行了评估,发现:在0～9岁人口按1990年普查漏报率为底线的情况下第六次全国人口普查的年龄人口漏报率为0.75%,重报率为0.55%,合计误差率为1.30%。采用布拉斯逻辑特生命表系统对低龄人口和老年人口的死亡漏报做出测度,2010年低龄人口的死亡漏报非常严重,漏报率超过60%,男性婴幼儿漏报更为严重;老年人口的死亡漏报也平均在5%以上,不分年龄达到20%。出生漏报和育龄妇女重报带来生育水平的失真,经过漏报回填,2010年生育水平应该在1.52以上。由此显示,在运用2010年普查数据时需要进行质量评估。     

六普死亡登记误差及其调整探索

目的:利用六普人口资料,分析各地死亡人口年龄综合指标,探索我国31个省区出生时预期寿命及经济人口社会变量,与2010年人口死亡率的关系.方法:使用描述性统计分析技术和相关回归分析拟合技术.结果:我国普查调查人口死亡率低于当年登记的人口死亡率,各地区人口死亡率全面低于全国人口死亡率;死亡人口登记误差主要发生在我国农村,及西南和部分西北地区.结论:2010年我国人口普查中,死亡人口、死亡率漏报率为18%左右,死亡人口漏报数量可能与外出人口数量,农村基层管理等有关.而出生时预期寿命,65岁以上老人比例等指标对于该地区人口粗死亡率有着较大的影响.     

20世纪90年代中国人口死亡水平

在人口普查中,人口死亡容易发生漏报。文章分析了中国人口死亡漏报的社会原因,利用两次普查的人口数据证明了人口死亡漏报确实存在。为了估计出实际的人口死亡水平,对两次普查的人口数据质量进行了推敲,根据登记的人口和死亡率数据的不同情况,提出了相应的修正方法。研究结果表明,20世纪90年代男性的预期寿命为67.97岁,女性的预期寿命为71.34岁,均比人口普查登记资料算出的结果小1.5岁左右。     

2000年中国第五次人口普查漏报评估及年中人口估计

20 0 0年第五次全国人口普查公报称普查漏报率为 1 81 % ,据此推算漏报人口 2 2 91万人 ,然而 ,这些人口的性别、年龄等人口特征不祥 ,这给人们研究社会经济发展中的实际问题带来非常大的不便。本研究就是在准确估计 1 990～ 2 0 0 0年分性别、年龄死亡概率的情况下 ,利用年龄移算方法对 1 990年和 2 0 0 0年两次人口普查的漏报率给予评估 ,并对漏报人口进行年龄、性别拆分 ,从而较为准确地估计得到 2 0 0 0年年中年龄性别人口 ,以为科研或了解我国人口发展状况之用     

婴儿死亡漏报对平均预期寿命的影响及区域差异

婴儿死亡漏报是影响婴儿死亡率准确性及平均预期寿命可信度的重要因素。文章基于2010年中国人口普查数据,从理论和实证两个方面分析了婴儿死亡漏报对平均预期寿命的影响,并利用聚类分析和空间自相关分析探究了婴儿死亡漏报率的可能水平及其对平均预期寿命影响的地区差异。研究发现死亡水平越低,婴儿死亡率变动所引起的平均预期寿命的变动就越大;婴儿死亡漏报率越高,婴儿死亡漏报率的变动所引起的平均预期寿命的变动就越大;婴儿死亡漏报率变动对于平均预期寿命的影响存在显著的区域差异,西部和西南地区平均预期寿命变动对婴儿死亡漏报率更敏感;死亡水平及婴儿死亡漏报可能性指数的分布全局上不存在显著的双变量自相关,但局部显示一定的空间聚集且分性别的空间模式具有相似性。     

中国人口的死亡水平及预期寿命评估——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

本文基于2010年人口普查数据,以1981年的中国人口生命表为模型生命表对2010年的人口按龄死亡模式进行修正,测算2010年的中国人口预期寿命,对20世纪80年代以来人口死亡率的变化趋势以及性别模式进行分析。研究结果发现,2010年中国人口的死亡率下降至5.58‰;人口预期寿命达到75岁,其中男性的预期寿命超过73岁,女性预期寿命为78岁;近10年间中国人口预期寿命的增幅超过4岁,高于20世纪80年代以来的任何时期。然而,2010年的人口普查数据中婴幼儿和老年人口存在严重的死亡漏报,现有的经济利益和社会制度因素的制约对人口普查数据质量的提高提出了巨大挑战。偏高的女婴死亡率虽然较2000年有所改善,但依旧存在,对女性的社会歧视仍在威胁中国的人口安全。     

中国80年代死亡水平研究

本文较为详细地讨论了由１９８２年人口普查和１９９０年人口普查资料确定的死亡水平，指出：确定８０年代中国实际的死亡水平，在注意婴儿死亡率的同时，还应注意到老年人口的死亡漏报，并依据两次普查的年龄别人口数，计算出人口的平均寿命，对用普查的死亡资料计算的年龄别死亡率的误差，做出重新估量。     

对2010年人口普查数据准确性的估计

文章根据2010年第六次全国人口普查汇总资料,利用人口分析技术和与历史数据、行政记录资料比较等方法,从人口的年龄、性别、生育、死亡、总规模、教育以及长表的代表性等多方面对六普的主要数据结果进行深入地分析,对普查数据的准确性进行客观地评估。结果表明,2010年普查登记的分年龄数据准确性差异较大,0～9岁低年龄人口存在漏报,20～45岁人口有重有漏,其余年龄组完整性较高;分性别数据与历史数据的一致性较好;妇女生育水平明显偏低;死亡人口数据漏报较为严重;分教育数据与教育部门的行政记录吻合度较高;长表的主要数据结构代表性较好。与2000年人口普查相比,2010年人口普查总人口的漏登率大幅降低,普查的总体质量明显提高。     

中国第五次人口普查全国人口死亡水平间接估计

本文运用几种常见的死亡水平间接估计方法 ,以中国第五次人口普查原始数据为基础 ,估测了五普人口粗死亡率、死亡漏报水平和人口平均预期寿命。     

African-american mortality at older ages: Results of a matching study

In this paper we investigate the quality of age reporting on death certificates of elderly African-Americans. We link a sample of death certificates of persons age 65+ in 1985 to records for the same individuals in U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920 and to records of the Social Security Administration. The ages at death reported on death certificates are too young on average. Errors are greater for women than for men. Despite systematic underreporting of age at death, too many deaths are registered at ages 95+. This excess reflects an age distribution of deaths that declines steeply with age, so that the base for upward transfers into an age category is much larger than the base for transfers downward and out. When corrected ages at death are used to estimate age-specific death rates, African-American mortality rates increase substantially above age 85 and the racial “crossover” in mortality disappears. Uncertainty about white rates at ages 95+, however, prevents a decisive racial comparison at the very oldest ages.     

China's missing children: the 2000 census underreporting surprise

We compare the age and sex structure of China's 2000 population census to an estimate of that structure derived from a projection from the 1990 census. Based on China's own official estimates of demographic change, our intercensal analysis indicates a shortfall in enumeration of more than a quarter of all children under age 5 and an eighth of those between 5 and 9, a total of nearly 37 million children missing in the 2000 census. We show that the shortfall is primarily due to underreporting of children in the census. Sex differences in child underreporting were fairly minor. Child underreporting in China is not unprecedented, but child underreporting rates in 2000 were about triple those of previous censuses. We attribute the increase primarily to policy changes beginning in the early 1990s that held officials at all jurisdictional levels personally responsible for enforcing birth quotas.     

“五普”人口总量和结构的分析与调整

以人口普查资料为基础,运用人口存活分析方法和数值拟合思想,并辅之以其他统计数据和对比分析方法,分析五普数据中的重报和漏报,对普查人口总量和结构进行调整。研究发现,“五普”0-9岁人口存在漏报,漏报人口为3 743万;而10-60岁人口存在重报,重报人口为1 134万人;最终调整五普人口总数为127 120万,普查人口漏报率为2.05%。     

Mortality in China 1964-2000

This paper uses data from censuses and surveys to re-estimate mortality levels and trends in China from the 1960s to 2000. We use the General Growth Balance method to evaluate the completeness of death reporting above the youngest ages in three censuses of the People's Republic of China from 1982 to 2000, concluding that reporting quality is quite high, and revisit the completeness of death recording in the 1973-75 Cancer Epidemiology Survey. Estimates of child mortality from a variety of direct and indirect sources are reviewed, and best estimates arrived at. Our estimates show a spectacular improvement in life expectancy in China: from about 60 years in the period 1964-82 to nearly 70 years in the period 1990-2000, with a further improvement to over 71 years by 2000. We discuss why survival rates continue improving in China despite reduced government involvement in and increasing privatization of health services, with little insurance coverage.     

General growth balance method: A reformulation for populations open to migration

This paper proposes a reformulation of the general growth balance method for estimating census and registration completeness so as to make it applicable even to populations that are affected by migration. It also discusses a new procedure of line fitting that could be useful in countries where the input data are severely affected by age misreporting. The method is applicable to countries where data on age distribution of the population are available for two points in time from either censuses or surveys. Following closely the original proposal of Brass, it involves adjusting the 'partial' birth rates for age-specific disturbances from growth and migration rates. Beyond correcting the death rates, the method is useful in inferring the relative completeness of the censuses, and in deriving a robust estimate of birth rate under certain conditions. The application of the method is illustrated using the example of the male population of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh for the period 1981 to 1991.     

General growth balance method: A reformulation for populations open to migration

This paper proposes a reformulation of the general growth balance method for estimating census and registration completeness so as to make it applicable even to populations that are affected by migration. It also discusses a new procedure of line fitting that could be useful in countries where the input data are severely affected by age misreporting. The method is applicable to countries where data on age distribution of the population are available for two points in time from either censuses or surveys. Following closely the original proposal of Brass, it involves adjusting the ‘partial’ birth rates for age-specific disturbances from growth and migration rates. Beyond correcting the death rates, the method is useful in inferring the relative completeness of the censuses, and in deriving a robust estimate of birth rate under certain conditions. The application of the method is illustrated using the example of the male population of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh for the period 1981 to 1991.     

The Effect of Age Misreporting in China on the Calculation of Mortality Rates at Very High Ages

When mortality rates by age are calculated from recorded deaths and enumerated populations, rates at higher ages are typically in error because of misstated ages. Mortality rates for China in 1981 have been calculated from the number of deaths in 1981 in each household recorded in the 1982 census, and from the census population back-projected one year. Because age was determined from date of birth, and because persons of the Chinese culture have very precise knowledge of date of birth, the mortality rates even at high ages should be unusually accurate. This expectation is fulfilled for most of China, but severe misreporting of age is found in a province that contains a large minority of a non-Han nationality, which lacks precise knowledge of date of birth. Although the province contains only 1.3% of China's population, male death rates above age 90 for all of China are distorted seriously by the erroneous data from this location.     

基于五普数据对四普数据质量的估计

本文在考虑了第四次人口普查和第五次人口普查的调查时点差异后,采用列克西斯图图示法,运用人口逆存活分析技术并结合对比分析方法,对第四次人口普查数据质量进行了重新评估。研究发现,“四普”0—9岁人口存在严重漏报,男女两性合计漏报人口1269万;10-18岁人口不仅存在漏报,也存在重报;男女分性别漏报人口之间也存在较大差异。     

Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study

This study investigates age reporting on the death certificates of older white Americans. We link a sample of death certificates for native-born whites aged 85+ in 1985 to Social Security Administration records and to records of the U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920. When ages in these sources are compared, inconsistencies are found to be minimal, even beyond age 95. Results show little distortion and no systematic biases in the reported age distribution of deaths. To explore the effect of age misreporting on old-age mortality, we estimate "corrected" age-specific death rates by the extinct-generation method for the U.S. white cohort born in 1885. With few exceptions, corrected and uncorrected rates in single years differ by less than 3% and are not systematically biased. When we compare corrected rates with those for the same birth cohort in France, Japan, and Sweden, we find that white American mortality at older ages is exceptionally low.     

Validity of centenarian data in the 1960 Census

This paper examines the question of how many genuine centenarians there actually are in the United States as compared with those reported in the census. It is concluded that the numbers of centenarians shown in various United States censuses are definite overstatements of the number of true centenarians. It seems likely that instead of the 10,326 centenarians reported in the 1960 census there were at most only about 3,700. Overstatement of ages seems to be particularly the case among those who claim to be aged 110 or over, and it is believed that there probably are no persons who are actually this old.The analysis has been made by projecting, through the me of population life table survival factors, the populations reported cit carious advanced age groups in one census to the next census and then comparing the results with the corresponding number reported in the latter census for the same age cohort. In general, the enumerated populations at ages below 95 are reasonably close to the projected populations, especially for white persons. On the other hand, at ages 95 and over-especially for centenarians-the enumerated populations significantly exceed the projected ones.As a subsidiary part of the analysis, the paper points out the significant differences at the older ages between the "full count" age distribution in the 1960 census and the corresponding "inflated 25 per cent sample" one. This is a subject that bears further investigation and explanation.The paper also discusses centenarians on the social security benefit rolls and concludes that the present data cannot be considered of substantial accuracy with regard to genuine centenarians, particularly the oldest ones. In a number of years, however, this program will provide excellent data, became the individuals involved will have been on the benefit rolls for many years and will have had their ages proved with reasonable accuracy.