Foreclosures and crime: A city-level analysis in Southern California of a dynamic process

Although a growing body of research has examined and found a positive relationship between neighborhood crime and home foreclosures, some research suggests this relationship may not hold in all cities. This study uses city-level data to assess the relationship between foreclosures and crime by estimating longitudinal models with lags for monthly foreclosure and crime data in 128 cities from 1996 to 2011 in Southern California. We test whether these effects are stronger in cities with a combination of high economic inequality and high economic segregation; and whether they are stronger in cities with high racial/ethnic heterogeneity and high racial segregation. One month, and cumulative three month, six month, and 12-month lags of foreclosures are found to increase city level crime for all crimes except motor vehicle theft. The effect of foreclosures on these crime types is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of inequality but low levels of economic segregation. The effect of foreclosures on aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and low levels of racial segregation. On the other hand, foreclosures had a stronger effect on larceny and motor vehicle theft when they occurred in a city with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and high levels of racial segregation. There is evidence that the foreclosure crisis had large scale impacts on cities, leading to higher crime rates in cities hit harder by foreclosures. Nonetheless, the economic and racial characteristics of the city altered this effect.     

The immigration–crime relationship: Evidence across US metropolitan areas

Despite popular commentary claiming a link between immigration and crime, empirical research exploring this relationship is sparse. Especially missing from the literature on immigration and crime is a consideration of how immigration affects rates of crime at the macro-level. Although individual-level studies of immigrant criminality and victimization tend to demonstrate that immigrants typically engage in less crime than their native-born counterparts, the effect of immigration on aggregate criminal offending is less clear. In this research, we attempt to address this weakness in the literature by examining the effects of aspects of immigration on crime rates in metropolitan areas. We combine 2000 US Census data and 2000 Uniform Crime Report data to explore how the foreign-born population influences criminal offending across a sample of metropolitan areas. After controlling for a host of demographic and economic characteristics, we find that immigration does not increase crime rates, and some aspects of immigration lessen crime in metropolitan areas.     

Disentangling the reciprocal relationship between change in crime and racial/ethnic change

Prior research has found that racial/ethnic change and residential instability are positively related to neighborhood crime. However, the process of racial/ethnic change differentially influences crime above and beyond residential instability. While both processes affect crime through the disruption of existing social ties, racial/ethnic change has additional consequences for crime by heightening racial/ethnic tensions and undercutting cross-group interactions. This means racial/ethnic change is a different process than residential instability, and suggests that neighborhoods experiencing high rates of instability and high rates of racial/ethnic change may be particularly susceptible to crime. Therefore, we examine the influence of racial/ethnic compositional change on change in crime across different levels of residential instability. Further, we argue that demographic change and crime may be influencing each other simultaneously: increases in the crime rate and racial/ethnic compositional change impact each other at the same time. To capture this process, we employ a structural equation model (SEM) that accounts for the reciprocal and simultaneous relationship between racial/ethnic change and violent and property crime rates in Los Angeles, California between 1990 and 2000. We also account for the influence of change in spatially proximate communities. Results show robust evidence that increases in racial/ethnic change contributes to greater violent and property crime rates, but the reciprocal influence of crime on racial/ethnic change is contingent upon the degree to which a neighborhood is experiencing residential instability and crime type.     

The link between unemployment and crime rate fluctuations: An analysis at the county, state, and national levels

Cantor and Land (1985) developed a theoretical model that proposed two pathways through which economic activity - as indexed by the aggregate unemployment rate - could affect the rate of criminal activity. The first is by increasing levels of criminal motivation within the population as deteriorating economic conditions affect social strain and social control; the second is by influencing the availability and vulnerability of criminal targets and thus the number of criminal opportunities. Although much empirical research has applied this theoretical model, few analyses have done so at disaggregated units of analysis. We present the most comprehensive analysis to date by empirically evaluating this model with data on 400 of the largest US counties - and examine the effects of aggregation on results as these county data are combined to the state and national levels - for the years 1978-2005. For seven Index crimes at each of the three levels of analysis, and with or without controls for structural covariates at each level, the directional effects hypothesized by Cantor and Land are found for 78 out of 84 estimated relationships. Even after taking into account the lack of statistical independence of these estimates by drawing on recently developed statistical theory, this is a very unlikely outcome. In accordance with expectations based on theory and prior research, (a) some of these relationships are weak and not statistically significant, and (b) the strongest and most consistent patterns of relationships for both the crime opportunity and crime motivation effects are found for three property crimes: burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Suggestions for further research on this topic are given.     

Patterns of local segregation: Do they matter for neighborhood crime?

In this paper, we extend recent research on the spatial measurement of segregation and the spatial dynamics of urban crime by conceptualizing, measuring, and describing local segregation by race–ethnicity and economic status, and examining the linkages of these conditions with levels of neighborhood violent and property crime. The analyses are based on all 8895 census tracts within a sample of 86 large U.S. cities. We fit multilevel models of crime that incorporate measures of local segregation. The results reveal that, net of city-level and neighborhood characteristics, White–Black local segregation is associated with lower violent and property crime. In contrast, local segregation of low income from high income households is connected with higher crime, particularly neighborhood violence.     

Time dynamics of elder victimization: Evidence from the NCVS, 1992 to 2005

Persons who are relatively younger have a comparably higher incidence of crime victimization than those who are older. Comparative studies of crime rates among those 65 and older with those for younger persons across time are virtually nonexistent. This study provides these analyses. Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey are used to study the relative victimization rate among US elders. Macroeconomic indicators and environmental interventions were included to examine whether structural forces influence elder crime victimization rates. Such influences are fractionally cointegrated with the long-term elder property and personal crime rates, with each having a distinct data-generating process. The results of these analyses suggest that personal, but not property, crime rates have declined since the passage of the Crime Bill of 1994. As well, the summer months are associated with elevated rates of property crime committed against elders but not personal crime.     

Growing pains or appreciable gains? Latent classes of neighborhood change,and consequences for crime in Southern California neighborhoods

This study explored the dynamic nature of neighborhoods using a relatively novel approach and data source. By using a nonparametric holistic approach of neighborhood change based on latent class analysis (LCA), we have explored how changes in the socio-demographic characteristics of residents, as well as home improvement and refinance activity by residents, are related to changes in neighborhood crime over a decade. Utilizing annual home mortgage loan data in the city of Los Angeles from the years 2000–2010, we 1) conducted principle components factor analyses using measures of residential in-migration and home investment activities; 2) estimated LCA models to identify classes of neighborhoods that shared common patterns of change over the decade; 3) described these 11 classes; 4) estimated change-score regression models to assess the relationship of these classes with changing crime rates. The analyses detected six broad types of neighborhood change: 1) stability; 2) urban investors; 3) higher-income home buyers; 4) in-mover oscillating; 5) oscillating refinance; 6) mixed-trait. The study describes the characteristics of each of these classes, and how they are related to changes in crime rates over the decade.     

Disparate vantage points: Race,gender, county context,and attitudes about harsh punishments in the US

In this paper, I use data from the General Social Survey, FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics, and other sources to consider differences in attitudes about punishment among four groups—Black men, Black women, White men, and White women—as well as how these differences vary according to county crime rates. Centering my expectations about group-specific attitudes within conflict theory and prior empirical findings, I am guided by the presumption that race and gender are cultural categories that shape attitudes about punishment by influencing our interactions with the criminal justice system, and that the meaning of these cultural categories varies by context. Analyses provide some evidence that race, gender, and context interact to shape attitudes about punishment. Overall, this research improves our understanding of group differences in punitive attitudes and of the cultural context in which the US system of incarceration operates.     

Perceptions as the crucial link? The mediating role of neighborhood perceptions in the relationship between the neighborhood context and neighborhood cohesion

This study examines the effects of neighborhood racial in-group size, economic deprivation and the prevalence of crime on neighborhood cohesion among U.S. whites. We explore to what extent residents' perceptions of their neighborhood mediate these macro-micro relationships. We use a recent individual-level data set, the American Social Fabric Study (2012/2013), enriched with contextual-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau (2010) and employ multi-level structural equation models. We show that the racial in-group size is positively related to neighborhood cohesion and that neighborhood cohesion is lower in communities with a high crime rate. Individuals' perceptions of the racial in-group size partly mediate the relationship between the objective racial in-group size and neighborhood cohesion. Residents’ perceptions of unsafety from crime also appear to be a mediating factor, not only for the objective crime rate but also for the objective racial in-group size. This is in line with our idea that racial stereotypes link racial minorities to crime whereby neighborhoods with a large non-white population are perceived to be more unsafe. Residents of the same neighborhood differ in how they perceive the degree of economic decay of the neighborhood and this causes them to evaluate neighborhood cohesion differently, however perceptions of neighborhood economic decay do not explain the link between the objective neighborhood context and neighborhood cohesion.     

Understanding the resilience of mail-back survey methods: An analysis of 20 years of change in response rates to national park surveys

Coverage and response rate challenges facing telephone and internet surveys have encouraged scientists to reconsider mail data collection methods. Although response rates to telephone surveys have declined sharply in the last 20 years, it is unclear how response rates to mail have fared during this time. This study analyzes 179 mail-back surveys of visitors to US National Parks from 1988 to 2007, which used virtually the same administration procedures throughout the period. Results show that response rates, based on only those who initially agreed to return a questionnaire, have remained at a high level with a 76% average while the number of questions and pages steadily increased. Despite this rise in response burden, rates have declined only moderately from about 80% in the late 1980s to about 70% more recently. The roles of additional contacts and survey salience in maintaining high response rates are examined. Results suggest that mail-back surveys for obtaining information from quasi-general public populations remain an effective data collection procedure.     

Forced to move: Patterns and predictors of residential displacement during an era of housing insecurity

Recent work on residential displacement—being forced out of one’s home—hints that its nature and prevalence have changed during the early twenty-first century. We evaluate this supposition against the backdrop of past displacement research. Reason-for-move data from seven waves of the American Housing Survey (2001-2013) are used to construct displacement measures that range from narrow (limited to forced moves prompted by government or private action or disaster loss) to broad (also including eviction and foreclosure). Our analysis shows that, regardless of measure, no consistent upward trend over time is apparent in the small percentage of mobile households experiencing displacement, although as many as 3.6 million individuals may be affected biennially. We also find that longstanding socioeconomic, racial, and other disparities in displacement persist but tend to be of modest magnitude. Such patterns could contribute to a perception of displacement as socially unpredictable, further heightening public concern about the issue.     

Race, crime, and Republican strength: Minority politics in the post-civil rights era

This investigation assesses the relationships between racial threat and partisan dominance in state legislatures with tests of interactive hypotheses. The findings show that historically contingent expectations derived from racial threat theory, Republican law and order campaign appeals, and fundamentalist strength account for Republican strength in the legislatures. Two-way fixed-effects estimates based on pooled time-series analyses of 799 state-years in the post-civil rights era show that the percentage of Republicans in the state legislatures grew after increases in African American presence and the violent crime rates. The combined effects of a growth in African American and fundamentalist populations also account for increased Republican seats in these bodies. Statements by Republican campaign officials on how they deliberately used mass resentments against minorities to gain votes provide evidence about the intervening links between minority threat, the menace posed by high violent crime rates, and increased Republican strength in the state legislatures.     

Do theories of crime or violence explain race differences in delinquency?

We examine race differences in delinquency using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We use a new method that permits an examination of offense specialization. We argue that an examination of offense patterns provides an opportunity for testing theoretical explanations of race effects. If race differences in violent crime reflect race differences in serious crime, then theories of crime can explain race effects. Otherwise, theories of violence are needed to explain the phenomenon. Our results suggest that black adolescents have higher rates of violence, particularly armed violence, but they do not have higher rates of serious (or minor) property or drug crime. Race differences in violence are generally stronger for adolescents who would otherwise be at lower risk: girls and adolescents from educated and intact families. Puerto Rican adolescents also have higher rates of violence than Anglos, but other Hispanic groups do not. We conclude with a discussion of the implication of the empirical literature (including our results) for various theoretical explanations of race differences in violence.     

Studying neighborhood crime across different macro spatial scales: The case of robbery in 4 cities

Whereas there is a burgeoning literature focusing on the spatial distribution of crime events across neighborhoods or micro-geographic units in a specific city, the present study expands this line of research by selecting four cities that vary across two macro-spatial dimensions: population in the micro-environment, and population in the broader macro-environment. We assess the relationship between measures constructed at different spatial scales and robbery rates in blocks in four cities: 1) San Francisco (high in micro- and macro-environment population); 2) Honolulu (high in micro- but low in macro-environment population); 3) Los Angeles (low in micro- but high in macro-environment population); 4) Sacramento (low in micro- and macro-environment population). Whereas the socio-demographic characteristics of residents further than ½ mile away do not impact robbery rates, the number of people up to 2.5 miles away are related to robbery rates, especially in the two cities with smaller micro-environment population, implying a larger spatial scale than is often considered. The results show that coefficient estimates differ somewhat more between cities differing in micro-environment population compared to those differing based on macro-environment population. It is therefore necessary to consider the broader macro-environment even when focusing on the level of crime across neighborhoods or micro-geographic units within an area.     

American crime drops: Investigating the breaks,dips and drops in temporal homicide

ObjectivesWhile a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.     

中国储蓄率高增长的理性分析

近年来,我国居民储蓄存款规模不断扩大,居民储蓄率保持高位运行.高储蓄率为银行提供了充裕的信贷资金,为国民经济发展做出了巨大的贡献.然而,不断攀升的存款余额也折射出我国经济和社会发展中的一些现实问题.因此,对形成储蓄率持续稳定增长的因素及其产生的影响进行理性分析,具有重要的现实指导意义.     

Who gets evicted? Assessing individual,neighborhood, and network factors

The prevalence and consequences of eviction have transformed the lived experience of urban poverty in America, yet little is known about why some families avoid eviction while others do not. Applying discrete hazard models to a unique dataset of renters, this study empirically evaluates individual, neighborhood, and social network characteristics that explain disparities in displacement from housing. Family size, job loss, neighborhood crime and eviction rates, and network disadvantage are identified as significant and robust predictors of eviction, net of missed rental payments and other relevant factors. This study advances urban sociology and inequality research and informs policy interventions designed to prevent eviction and stem its consequences.     

From ‘What the F#@% is a Facebook?’ to ‘Who Doesn’t Use Facebook?’: The role of criminal lifestyles in the adoption and use of the Internet

Concerns about a digital divide persist and recent calls have been made for understanding how lifestyles influence Internet adoption and use. Online criminal behaviors have drawn attention from law enforcement, but diffusion of innovation theory suggests higher propensities for crime, particularly street crime, reduces the likelihood of Internet use. Drawing from this theory and research on the role of street criminal lifestyles on technology adoption, this study examined patterns of Internet use among a sample of 585 individuals at-risk for and involved in street crime. Results from our logistic and negative binomial regression analyses lead to two general conclusions: (1) compared to research on the general population, similar predictors and lower rates of Internet participation and usage are observed, and (2) mixed evidence suggests participation in criminal lifestyles contributes to digital inequality. The results support a theory of technological diffusion to marginalized populations. We conclude by discussing the expansion of technology, digital inequality, and crime.     

论行政执法中的“诱惑取证”

随着经济、社会的不断发展与进步,犯罪的方式和种类日益增多,犯罪技巧及犯罪嫌疑人规避法律的能力也日益增强。行政执法中的“诱惑取证”作为一种特殊执法手段便应运而生,且具有其存在的必要性及合理性。但由于诱惑性执法手段的滥用或禾适当使用,易导致本无违法意图或倾向的公民犯法。因此,对于“诱惑取证”应从程序上进行严格控制,对其适用主体、适用范围等都作出严格的限制。“诱惑取证”一旦被滥用,即构成“钓鱼执法”,此即严重侵犯了公民的合法权益。     

Are Hispanics the new ‘Threat’? Minority group threat and fear of crime in Miami-Dade County

Research examining the determinants of fear of crime has arguably raised more questions than it has answered. This exploratory study addresses one of the compelling questions that remains unanswered: what is the role of ethnicity, both at the community and individual levels, in understanding variation in fear of crime? Guided by racial or minority group threat theory, we examine the relative sizes of both the Black and Latino populations as indicators of minority group threat to determine their role in understanding individual fear of crime in a city where Latinos represent a much larger proportion of the population than Blacks (Miami-Dade County, Florida). Furthermore, the race and ethnic backgrounds of the respondents are also considered to evaluate their role in understanding variation in the fear of crime. Using both Census tract-level data and data collected from a NIDA sponsored grant that was part of a larger study about physically disabled residents, our findings reveal that in Miami-Dade County where Blacks are highly segregated from whites, the relative size of the Latino population is a predictor of fear of crime among white residents. Implications of this finding are considered, including a call for more nuanced research focusing on the predictors of fear of crime within multiethnic communities.