The link between unemployment and crime rate fluctuations: An analysis at the county, state, and national levels

Cantor and Land (1985) developed a theoretical model that proposed two pathways through which economic activity - as indexed by the aggregate unemployment rate - could affect the rate of criminal activity. The first is by increasing levels of criminal motivation within the population as deteriorating economic conditions affect social strain and social control; the second is by influencing the availability and vulnerability of criminal targets and thus the number of criminal opportunities. Although much empirical research has applied this theoretical model, few analyses have done so at disaggregated units of analysis. We present the most comprehensive analysis to date by empirically evaluating this model with data on 400 of the largest US counties - and examine the effects of aggregation on results as these county data are combined to the state and national levels - for the years 1978-2005. For seven Index crimes at each of the three levels of analysis, and with or without controls for structural covariates at each level, the directional effects hypothesized by Cantor and Land are found for 78 out of 84 estimated relationships. Even after taking into account the lack of statistical independence of these estimates by drawing on recently developed statistical theory, this is a very unlikely outcome. In accordance with expectations based on theory and prior research, (a) some of these relationships are weak and not statistically significant, and (b) the strongest and most consistent patterns of relationships for both the crime opportunity and crime motivation effects are found for three property crimes: burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Suggestions for further research on this topic are given.     

A non-stationary panel data investigation of the unemployment–crime relationship

Many empirical studies of the economics of crime focus solely on the determinants thereof, and do not consider the dynamic and cross-sectional properties of their data. As a response to this, the current paper offers an in-depth analysis of this issue using data covering 21 Swedish counties from 1975 to 2010. The results suggest that the crimes considered are non-stationary, and that this cannot be attributed to county-specific disparities alone, but that there are also a small number of common stochastic trends to which groups of counties tend to revert. In an attempt to explain these common stochastic trends, we look for a long-run cointegrated relationship between unemployment and crime. Overall, the results do not support cointegration, and suggest that previous findings of a significant unemployment–crime relationship might be spurious.     

网络直播聚合犯罪的罪因、特征与治理措施

网络直播聚合犯罪愈演愈烈,主要集中于知识产权犯罪和色情犯罪领域,国内目前对该类犯罪的研究较少。网络直播聚合犯罪与社会结构方面的紧张、个人违法性意识方面的紧张存在关系,前者主要体现为：商品拜物教影响下的部分民众设定目标时日益以物质获得为参考系;阶层固化使得处于部分底层民众无法通过制度性手段实现目标。后者主要体现为网络直播聚合犯罪者实施犯罪,与其权衡犯罪成本与获利数额、心存侥幸有关。在对案例进行实证分析的前提下,归纳概括出此类犯罪的三个主要特征：犯罪主体呈现出低龄化、学历较低、无业状态较多的特点;分工的复杂性、网络的匿名性使得犯罪的隐蔽性较强;黑灰产业链业已形成并成熟。对此类犯罪的治理,应当坚持惩防并举,在惩罚方面应当注意网络直播聚合共同犯罪认定规则的变通适用,以及网络直播聚合犯罪立法扩张、司法限缩与严格执法之间的关系;在预防方面应当构建国家、社会两位一体的预防模式。     

Disentangling the reciprocal relationship between change in crime and racial/ethnic change

Prior research has found that racial/ethnic change and residential instability are positively related to neighborhood crime. However, the process of racial/ethnic change differentially influences crime above and beyond residential instability. While both processes affect crime through the disruption of existing social ties, racial/ethnic change has additional consequences for crime by heightening racial/ethnic tensions and undercutting cross-group interactions. This means racial/ethnic change is a different process than residential instability, and suggests that neighborhoods experiencing high rates of instability and high rates of racial/ethnic change may be particularly susceptible to crime. Therefore, we examine the influence of racial/ethnic compositional change on change in crime across different levels of residential instability. Further, we argue that demographic change and crime may be influencing each other simultaneously: increases in the crime rate and racial/ethnic compositional change impact each other at the same time. To capture this process, we employ a structural equation model (SEM) that accounts for the reciprocal and simultaneous relationship between racial/ethnic change and violent and property crime rates in Los Angeles, California between 1990 and 2000. We also account for the influence of change in spatially proximate communities. Results show robust evidence that increases in racial/ethnic change contributes to greater violent and property crime rates, but the reciprocal influence of crime on racial/ethnic change is contingent upon the degree to which a neighborhood is experiencing residential instability and crime type.     

论我国对未成年人的监护监督制度

我国目前的监护制度存在着监督不力的问题。监护很大程度上仰仗于监护人尤其是法定监护人的自觉,这显然不利于未成年人权益的保护。监督的缺位一方面是立法体例使然,另一方面也与现代观念上的“监护人的监护行为须受外部机关乃至公权力的干预与监督”的监护意识还没有被广泛认可有关,另外对亲权制度的误解也有一定的原因。因此,应设立公权监护制度,如设置监护法官、设置监护监督人、在民间逐渐培训基层的青少年保护机构等非政府组织以防止未成年人的法定监护人损害未成年人的利益。     

Foreclosures and crime: A city-level analysis in Southern California of a dynamic process

Although a growing body of research has examined and found a positive relationship between neighborhood crime and home foreclosures, some research suggests this relationship may not hold in all cities. This study uses city-level data to assess the relationship between foreclosures and crime by estimating longitudinal models with lags for monthly foreclosure and crime data in 128 cities from 1996 to 2011 in Southern California. We test whether these effects are stronger in cities with a combination of high economic inequality and high economic segregation; and whether they are stronger in cities with high racial/ethnic heterogeneity and high racial segregation. One month, and cumulative three month, six month, and 12-month lags of foreclosures are found to increase city level crime for all crimes except motor vehicle theft. The effect of foreclosures on these crime types is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of inequality but low levels of economic segregation. The effect of foreclosures on aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and low levels of racial segregation. On the other hand, foreclosures had a stronger effect on larceny and motor vehicle theft when they occurred in a city with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and high levels of racial segregation. There is evidence that the foreclosure crisis had large scale impacts on cities, leading to higher crime rates in cities hit harder by foreclosures. Nonetheless, the economic and racial characteristics of the city altered this effect.     

The immigration–crime relationship: Evidence across US metropolitan areas

Despite popular commentary claiming a link between immigration and crime, empirical research exploring this relationship is sparse. Especially missing from the literature on immigration and crime is a consideration of how immigration affects rates of crime at the macro-level. Although individual-level studies of immigrant criminality and victimization tend to demonstrate that immigrants typically engage in less crime than their native-born counterparts, the effect of immigration on aggregate criminal offending is less clear. In this research, we attempt to address this weakness in the literature by examining the effects of aspects of immigration on crime rates in metropolitan areas. We combine 2000 US Census data and 2000 Uniform Crime Report data to explore how the foreign-born population influences criminal offending across a sample of metropolitan areas. After controlling for a host of demographic and economic characteristics, we find that immigration does not increase crime rates, and some aspects of immigration lessen crime in metropolitan areas.     

土地财政、晋升激励与房价棘轮效应的实证分析

土地财政和晋升激励是激发地方政府推动房价上涨的两大动力.文章通过使用中国省际面板数据,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,就土地财政和晋升激励对房价的影响效果进行了实证分析,发现:(1)土地财政没有推高房价,反而对房价上涨产生抑制作用;(2)地方政府官员基于晋升需要,产生对GDP的追求,对房价的影响相时更加显著;(3)总的看,地方政府对房价的影响作用有限,我国房价走势主要由居民收入、货币供应和房价自身等经济因数所决定.     

从刑事诉讼目的角度看警检关系

西方各国刑事诉讼中的警检关系本质上是一种相互配合与协作的关系,以控制犯罪为直接目的。我国刑事诉讼中的警检关系既是一种互相配合的关系,又是一种监督关系,以实现控制犯罪和保障人权的双重目的。然而,从警检关系的实际运作来看,无论公安机关和检察机关互相配合,还是检察监督均未能达到理想效果,由此导致控制犯罪和保障人权的目的均未能充分实现。在笔者看来,警检关系难以实现控制犯罪和保障人权的双重目的,我国应以提高对犯罪的有效追诉为目标重构我国刑事诉讼中的警检关系。     

The increasing unemployment gap between the low and high educated in West Germany. Structural or cyclical crowding-out?

This paper addresses trends in education-specific unemployment risks at labor market entry in West Germany from the mid-1970s to the present. In line with previous research it shows that vocationally qualified school-leavers have relatively lower unemployment risks than school-leavers with general education. Over time, the gap in unemployment risks between the low-educated and medium- and highly educated labor market entrants substantially widened for both sexes. The literature identifies two different mechanisms for this trend: structural or cyclical crowding out. While in the former scenario low-educated become increasingly unemployed due to an oversupply of tertiary graduates and displacement from above, in the latter their relative unemployment risk varies with the business cycle. The results provide evidence for cyclical rather than structural crowding-out in West Germany. Since macroeconomic conditions became generally worse over time, this strongly explains the widening unemployment gap between the low-educated and all other education groups.     

劳动力市场状况与犯罪:理论、仿真与浙江经验

劳动力市场状况与犯罪的关系是犯罪经济学最核心的研究主题之一.基于浙江28个县1980年到1989年的面板数据,本文对劳动力市场状况影响犯罪供给的机理和效应展开了详细的定性定量分析.双侧固定效应模型的估计结果显示:(1)工资差距每上升一个百分点,一般刑事犯罪率将平均上升0.15％;(2)相比侵财犯罪,暴力犯罪对工资收入差距扩大的弹性更大;(3)刑罚威慑弱化和快速的城市化是20世纪80年代后期浙江犯罪率显著攀升的重要原因.以上估计结果对犯罪供给方程估计中存在的不可观测的异质性、遗漏变量及样本选择等典型的内生性问题保持稳健,因而,为国内外犯罪经济学的实证研究提供了新证据,对我国转型期犯罪治理公共政策制定存在相应的参考价值.     

美国欠缺行为能力成年人之监护人培训制度考察及对我国的启示

监护人培训制度是通过法律规定赋予特定民事主体一项权利,随着科学技术的突飞猛进,其在成年监护制度中的作用越来越突出.美国监护人培训制度经过多年的发展与完善,已形成一整套相当具体、完备的规则,作为美国成年监护制度中的一个亮点,其也是许多国家效仿的范本.在现代成年监护制度中,监护人培训制度的重要性越来越明显,其在改革中的发展趋势,可以为我国亟待完善的成年监护制度提供一些有价值的借鉴作用.     

“因而”“从而”的词汇化

现代汉语中的因果连词“因而”“从而”产生于先秦,不过那时的“因”“从”是动词,“因而”“从而”是跨层非短语结构。随着语言的发展,“因而”“从而”逐渐凝固成词。这一过程包括两方面:“因”“从”的虚化和“因而”“从而”内部结构追渐紧密。“因而”从而“词汇化的主要诱因是语境,时间、事理上的先后蕴涵着因果关系。     

论学校事故中的学校与学生关系

学校事故中学校与学生的关系是规范学校事故民事责任的法理基础。学校与学生的关系既不是一种监护关系,也不是一种准行政关系,更不是一种可以大而化之的合同关系,而是一种教育、管理、保护关系。这种关系不应因学校性质的不同而区别对待,且不排除学校和学生或其监护人的合法约定。     

论职务犯罪心理的生成机制

职务犯罪心理的生成机制可分为内化机制、外化机制和内外化机制。每个机制的过程、方式和原理各不相同。在内化机制中,行为人的世界观起了决定作用;在外化机制中,职务犯罪动机和犯罪人格是职务犯罪心理的实质内容;在内外化机制中,职务犯罪心理主要呈现两种发展趋势。     

论《罗马规约》规定的危害人类罪的前提要件

“广泛或有系统地对平民人口实施攻击”是危害人类罪成立的前提要件。所谓“广泛”,应从攻击行为的规模和受害人的数量两个方面来界定;所谓“有系统”,只要揭示出其“组织性”的特征即可,不能包含“政策”的要素;界定“对平民人口的攻击”时,应注意攻击与政策的关联性和攻击的持续性。在确定受害者是否为平民时,必须考虑犯罪实行时该人所处的特定境遇,而不仅仅是其身份。《罗马规约》删去了危害人类罪定义中的“武装冲突”要件,这实际上是降低了归属于国际刑事法院管辖的核心犯罪的入罪门槛,显然违背了国际刑事法院成立的宗旨,进而为粗暴地干涉一国主权留下隐患。     

The typification of Hispanics as criminals and support for punitive crime control policies

The Hispanic population is now the largest and fastest growing minority in the United States, so it is not surprising that ethnic threat linked to Hispanics has been associated with harsher crime control. While minority threat research has found that individuals who associate blacks with crime are more likely to support harsh criminal policies, the possibility that this relationship exists for those who typify Hispanics as criminal has yet to be examined. Using a national random sample, this study is the first to use HLM to find that perceptions of Hispanics as criminals do increase support for punitive crime control measures, controlling for various individual and state influences. Moderated and contextual analyses indicate this relationship is most applicable for individuals who are less apt to typify criminals as black, less prejudiced, less fearful of victimization, politically liberal or moderate, not parents, and living in states with relatively fewer Latin American immigrants.     

Does the unemployment rate affect the divorce rate? An analysis of state data 1960-2005

We analyzed data from 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1960 to 2005 to study how the unemployment rate and the divorce rate are related. Unemployment is positively related to divorce in a bivariate analysis, but the association is not significant when state and year fixed effects are included in the statistical model. When the sample is divided into time periods, unemployment is negatively and significantly associated with divorce after 1980. These findings provide the strongest support for a “cost of divorce” perspective and suggest that a high rate of unemployment decreases the rate of divorce, net of unobserved time-invariant state characteristics and period (year) trends.     

全面理解运动和矛盾的关系

运动和矛盾的关系问题,是辩证法中的根本问题,应当从运动的源泉、本质和表现形式三个方面来考察。矛盾是事物运动变化发展的内容、源泉、动力、原因,而运动则是矛盾的表现、存在形式及实现。运动的本质是时间和空间的直接统一,是时间空间的非间断性和间断性的统一。无论是同一种运动形式,还是不同运动形式,运动的表现形式都离不开矛盾、充满着矛盾。     

严格责任抑或过错责任的追问--以奸淫幼女的司法解释为视角

按照我国传统的刑法理论,奸淫幼女是故意犯罪,必须以明知幼女的年龄不满14周岁为条件,在归责原则上适用过错责任,这在理论和逻辑上是没有问题的。但是,对奸淫幼女行为适用严格责任也并无不妥,这除了因为严格责任更有利于刑法保护幼女的公共政策目标的实现以外,还因为严格责任并非我们通常理解的无过错责任,不构成对过错责任原则的悖反,而且,最高人民法院的司法解释实质上并没有从根本上排斥严格责任。