Human capital,technological progress and the demographic transition*

We emphasize the importance to consider components of population growth — fertility and mortality ‐ separately, when modeling the mutual interaction between population and economic growth. Our model implies that two countries with the same population growth will not converge towards the same level of per capita income. The country with the lower level of birth and death rates will be better off in the long run. Introducing a spill over effect of average human capital on total productivity our model implies multiple equilibria as illustrated in Becker el al. (1990) and Strulik (1999). Besides the existence of a low and high level equilibrium ‐ as characterized by low and high levels of per capita output respectively ‐ we show the existence of multiple low level (Malthusian) equilibria. Initial conditions and parameters of technological progress and human capital investment determine whether an economy is capable to escape the low level equilibrium trap and to enjoy sustained economic growth.     

Mathematical investigations of the escape from the Malthusian trap

We present a simulation model that synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the way population growth and economic development were intertwined. The non‐linear stochastic model consists of a system of equations whose dynamics culminate in an industrial revolution after hundreds of iterations. The Industrial Revolution can thus be conceptualized as a permanent “escape”; from the Malthusian trap that occurs once the economy is capable of permanently sustaining an ever growing population. We investigate the conditions for such an escape and their sensitivity to the parameters of the model. This is done in an attempt to understand why some economies might have had difficulties escaping from the Malthusian trap (in contrast to the European experience in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries). Our results show that the likelihood of an escape is sensitive to the savings rate and to the output elasticities of the two sectors of the economy. When not in a subsistence crisis, the chances that an escape will occur increase for larger values of the ratio of the savings rate to the growth rate of the population. The chances of an escape also increase substantially for larger values of the output elasticities of labor.     

Mathematical investigations of the escape from the Malthusian trap

"We present a simulation model that synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the way population growth and economic development were intertwined. The non-linear stochastic model consists of a system of equations whose dynamics culminate in an industrial revolution after hundreds of iterations. The Industrial Revolution [in Europe] can thus be conceptualized as a permanent 'escape' from the Malthusian trap that occurs once the economy is capable of permanently sustaining an ever growing population. We investigate the conditions for such an escape and their sensitivity to the parameters of the model....Our results show that the likelihood of an escape is sensitive to the savings rate and to the output elasticities of the two sectors of the economy. When not in a subsistence crisis, the chances that an escape will occur increase for larger values of the ratio of the savings rate to the growth rate of the population. The chances of an escape also increase substantially for larger values of the output elasticities of labor." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Child mortality and fertility: public vs private education

How does the effect of child mortality reductions on fertility and education vary across educational systems? To answer this question, we develop an overlapping-generations model where altruistic parents care about both the number and human capital of their surviving children. We find that, under a private education system, if income is low initially, the economy converges to a Malthusian stagnation steady state. For a high level of initial income, the economy reaches a growth path in which children’s education rises and fertility decreases with income. In the growth regime under private education, exogenous shocks that lower child mortality are detrimental for growth: fertility increases and education declines. In contrast, under a public education system, the stagnation steady state does not exist, and health improvement shocks are no longer detrimental for growth. We therefore offer a new rationale for the introduction of public education.     

西部地区人力资本年龄结构变动对经济追赶的影响

通过构建年龄别人力资本存量,利用Spiege模型分析了西部地区年龄别人力资本对经济追赶和技术吸纳的影响．发现15—24,54—64岁组剐的人力资本对技术吸纳的作用为负,说明人力资本对技术进步作用阀门效应的存在。因此,加大对西部地区的教育投入,加强企业在职培训,通过提高人力资本的层次才是西部地区实现追赶战略的有效路径。     

Fertility and the economy

I relate the demand for children to parental incomes and the cost of rearing children — especially to the value of the time spent on child care and to public policies that change the cost of children. This paper also links the demand for children to investments in their human capital and other dimensions of the so-called quality of children. Fertility is shown to depend too on child and adult mortality, uncertainty about the sex of children — if there is a preference for boys, girls, or for variety — uncertainty about how long it takes to produce a conception, and other variables.Since biological necessity dictates that succeeding generations overlap, it is not surprising that fertility in one generation influences the fertility of succeeding generations. The overlapping generations approach provides a useful framework for relating fertility choices to population growth and macroeconomic changes.The modern approach to fertility leads to very different interactions between population growth and economic growth than is implied either by Malthusian or the usual neo-classical growth models. In particular, it provides a framework for analyzing how societies escape a Malthusian-like stagnating equilibrium and embark on the journey toward becoming modern economies, where per capita incomes, human capital, and physical capital all continue to grow, fertility declines to rather low levels, and married women participate extensively in the labor force.This essay was prepared for the Nobel Jubilee Symposium, Lund, Sweden, December 5–7, 1991. I have had valuable comments from James Heckman, Robert Willis and my discussants at the symposium: Allesandro Cigno and Richard Easterlin, and useful assistance from Becky Kilburn. I am indebted to the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development award R37-HD22054 and National Science Foundation award SES-90-10748.     

Population, population density and technological change

In a model on population and endogenous technological change, Kremer (1993) combines a short-run Malthusian scenario where income determines the population that can be sustained, with the Boserupian insight that greater population spurs technological change and can therefore lift a country out of its Malthusian trap. We show that a more realistic version of the model, which combines population and population density, allows deeper insights into these processes. The incorporation of population density also allows a superior interpretation of the empirical regularities between the level of population, population density, population growth, and economic development at aggregated and disaggregated levels.

国外最低工资人力资本形成效应研究述评

最低工资法的实施和最低工资水平的提高对社会经济产生的影响日益受到关注,最低工资对人力资本形成的影响成为国外学者的重点研究对象。文章梳理了国外关于最低工资如何影响人力资本形成的主要成果,从最低工资的在职培训效应和教育效应两个方面系统阐述了最低工资人力资本形成作用的最新研究进展。     

台湾经济增长中人力资本作用的实证研究

在现代经济中,人力资本已成为经济增长的内生要素和重要源泉。本文以人力资本相关理论为基础,通过合理地选取和度量有关变量数据,构建台湾人力资本外部性增长模型,并对模型进行计量检验和要素分析,从而揭示台湾人力资本投资与经济增长的关系,以及人力资本要素在经济增长中的作用。     

人力资本结构对西北地区经济增长的影响——基于西北五省面板数据

针对西北地区人力资本研究过程中仅由受教育程度度量人力资本带来的问题,引入企业家人力资本,构建人力资本结构模型,并将其代入到人力资本外部性模型中,同时选取以往研究的人力资本外部性模型,对两个模型进行实证分析。在引入人力资本结构模型后,西北地区人力资本对经济增长的影响变小,在人力资本结构内部,技能型人力资本对人力资本总量的影响远大于企业家人力资本的影响,企业家人力资本抑制了技能型人力资本对经济增长的影响。     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

用科学发展观看待甘肃省的经济增长

本文借鉴丹尼森因素分析法对索洛余值进行分解,从中分离出人力资本积累、资源配置结构、规模经济效益和狭义的技术进步对经济增长的影响,在此基础上构建了经济增长模型,测算了1978-2005年甘肃省各因素对经济增长的贡献率。结果表明:甘肃省的经济增长主要表现为粗放的外延型增长,而且要素投入增加与经济增长之间还没有形成良性互动关系,1978-2005年,经济增长主要依靠投入(52.04%),其中,资本投入对经济增长的贡献率为37.70%,劳动力投入的贡献率为14.34%。虽然广义的技术进步贡献率达到47.96%,但狭义的技术进步的贡献率仅为15.65%,资源配置结构的调整及人力资本水平的不断提高对经济增长产生了明显的正效应。因此,加快经济增长方式转变,确实落实科学发展观,使经济增长真正依靠技术进步和人力资本的积累,仍然是我们面临的最迫切的任务。     

Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881

Recent empirical research questions the validity of using Malthusian theory in preindustrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650–1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different region: Northern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages, and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a Malthusian economy wherein population growth decreased living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. However, these results also demonstrate how the system is best characterized as one of weak homeostasis. Furthermore, there is no evidence of Boserupian effects given that increases in population failed to spur any sustained technological progress.     

人力资本投资与我国农村经济发展问题的探讨

人力资本投资对于我国农村经济发展具有十分重要的意义。然而,我国目前农村劳动者整体素质不高,农村人力资本的结构层次不明显,劳动力使用方向趋同。这种状况阻碍了我国农村经济的进一步发展。因此,要在思想上提高加快对农村人力资本投资重要性的认识。通过多渠道筹资增加对教育的投入,并要大力发展职业教育和技术教育,从而推动我国农村经济的发展。     

不同类型人力资本对经济增长的影响分析

人力资本包括量与质两方面 ,后者即凝聚在劳动者身上的知识、技能及其所表现出来的能力。本文从人力资本“质”的角度出发 ,将人力资本分为一般型、技能型、创新型三种人力资本类型。实证分析表明 ,一般型、技能型人力资本对经济增长的贡献有减弱的趋势 ,而创新型人力资本的贡献不断增大。据此 ,我们认为 ,政府在财政紧约束条件下应坚持人力资本投资市场化与公共教育投资重点化的政策取向     

Measuring Human,Physical and Structural Capital Efficiency Performance of Insurance Companies

Based on the strategy perspective of intellectual capital, this paper proposes an integrated framework that is practical to estimate the human, physical, and structural capitals (intellectual capital) efficiency performance, at firm level. This paper uses a dynamic network data envelopment analysis model to estimate the intellectual capital efficiency at three levels in the insurance industry over the period of 2005–2012. Within the insurance industry, deficiencies occurred in the human and structural capital stages as opposed to the physical capital stage. A further investigation indicates that total investment is the major concern for the deficiencies. Moreover, the cluster analysis highlights the strengths and weaknesses of the insurers based on their inherently similar efficiencies. Malaysian insurance industry need to translate and promote the existing knowledge-based economy agenda lauded by the government to improve the intellectual capital efficiency, particularly at the human capital level.     

The effect of emigration on human capital formation

This paper focuses on a possible effect of emigration on human capital formation. Emigration to a higher returns to skill country provides an incentive to invest in human capital. The level of human capital formation in the source country can therefore be positively correlated with the probability of emigration. Incidentally a surge in emigration can lead the source country out of an under-development trap. The implications of the model for the convergence controversy are also discussed. Received: 16 July 1997/Accepted: 28 July 1998     

西北地区人力资本在经济增长中作用的实证分析

本文利用总量生产函数模型,采用因素分解法分析了1990-2000年间西北五省区人力资本投入在经济增长中的贡献度,同时分析了物资资本、劳动力投入及技术进步因素的贡献作用。分析结果表明,物质资本是主要的经济增长贡献因素,人力资本和技术进步也在起到越来越大的作用。     

西北地区经济可持续发展的人力资本战略

劳动力大量过剩和人力资本短缺之间的矛盾在西北地区呈升级态势,人力资本配置的刚性状态和非最优化,人力资本流失严重是西北地区经济可持续发展面临的主要人力资本问题。针对这些问题,文中围绕人力资本本身从加大人力资本投资,改善人才现状,实现人力资本的分配到位,实现人力资本配置的市场化,增进人力资本的高科技含量,区域层次性可持续发展,可持续的区域教育价值观,区域人才政策,区域人口文化形象等方面构想人力资本战略的框架。     

制约西部经济增长的人力资本“瓶颈”及对策

国民收入的某些重要增长是由于增加了教育投资这种人力资本而造成的,经济增长主要来源于人力资本储量的增长。在阐述了人力资本投资与经济增长的关系后,以数据分析了西部资本结构与人力资本问题,最后给出了加速西部人力资本积累,促进西部经济增长的对策。