Social components of metropolitan population densities

The decline of population density from the center of metropolitan areas can be expressed mathematically as: d _r = d _o e ^gr where d _r is the population density of a subarea at distance r from the center, d _o is the hypothetical density at the center, and g is the population-density gradient, empirically always negative. Expanding this exponential model permits examining systematically the relationship between distance from center and various components of population density—housing-unit density, vacant units, household size, and group-quarters population-and the change over time in these components. For the metropolitan areas of Columbus, Dayton, Hartford, Miami, and Syracuse in 1950 and 1960, housing-unit density decreased from the center more sharply than population density. Vacancies, which increased slightly at the center, were proportionately low in the stable middle zones but somewhat higher in the rapidly growing outer zones. While household size decreased around the center between 1950 and 1960, on the periphery it remained constant or increased slightly because of increased family size. During the same decade, the group-quarters population, relative to total population, shifted outward from the center to the periphery to a small extent.     

Study on Asia's growing cities: Republic of Korea

Focus in this discussion of migration and urbanization in Korea is on the following: historical perspective, implications of urban growth, urbanization trends and population distribution, patterns of migration, socioeconomic differences, and population redistribution policies. Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in Asia. Attempts to deal successfully with this phenomenon have met with varying degrees of success. Population concentration in the capital region continues to be a problem and has resulted in acute housing shortages, rapidly rising land prices, and on encroachment of urban land use into prime agricultural land surrounding the Seoul metropolitan region. Between 1955-1975 the population of Seoul increased from 1.6 million to 6.9 million for the capital city proper and to 9.4 million for its metropolitan region, including 5 satellite cities. This fringe spillover began in the late 1960s. The metropolitan area, comprising 4 cities around the fast growing city of Busan in the south, was formed in the mid-1970s with 3.2 million people. At this time major policy concerns center on the demographic phenomenon of continued concentrations in the Seoul and Busan regions. Problem issues which persist include nonfarm polarization, regional imbalance, diverging intra-sectoral incomes, and the aging rural labor force. Despite its nearness to the demilitarized zone, Seoul was and continues to be the focal point of economic and educational opportunity. The early 1960s brought little variation in migration and urbanization trends. In 1961 family planning and planned economic development were initiated but their impact came several years later. The overall urban growth rate dropped from 5.4 to 4.6% in the 1960-1966 period, and Seoul's pace of expansion slowed down to an annual average of 6.5%. Yet, the capital continued its urbanizing dominance. By 1975 Korea had 3 cities with a population of over 3 million: Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. In 1975 48.4% of the country's population of 34.7 million lived in the 35 cities designated as urban. Migrants comprised 21.5% of the 1970 national population, and the shift was rural-urban for almost 3/4 of them. Korea's industrial takeoff during the mid-1960s had 2 noteworthy effects: rising urban wages doubled rural income levels in real terms by 1970; and the exodus from the countryside was so intense that the rural population shrank between 1965-1970, for the 1st time since the Korean War. A successful family planning program had helped to lower the annual population growth rate to 1.9% by the late 1970s, but heavy out-migration from rural areas was the major factor.     

Is Nonmetropolitan America being repopulated? The evidence from Pennsylvania’s minor civil divisions

We analyze population change and net migration, by age and sex, from 1940 to 1970, for 1,834 Nonmetropolitan Pennsylvania Minor Civil Divisions (MCD's) classified by residence, population potential, socioeconomic status, and distance from metropolitan centers. Our analysis indicates, as expected, reconcentration of residents from both urban and remoter nonmetropolitan localities into exurban peripheries 25 to 35 miles for metropolitan centers. Since 1960, however, a "turnaround" appears in many truly rural tracts, which have been experiencing an influx or retention of persons 35 years of age and older. Statistical explanations are strongest for males in poor, isolated places, weakest for more accessible, socioeconomically advanced places and their female inhabitants. Throughout the study period and area, nonurban MCD's register more positively than the rural.     

The urban distribution of headquarters and branch plants in manufacturing: Mechanisms of metropolitan dominance

The proposition that ties between home offices and branch plants constitute a form of metropolitan dominance is evaluated by examining the dependence of these two forms of manufacturing organization on selected characteristics of the 110 largest SMSAs. The predictor variables in the analysis are measures of industry composition, population size, and regional location, factors which past research has shown to be indicators of rank in an urban hierarchy of dominance. The data generally support the hypothesis in revealing that headquarters locate in large, diversified urban areas, whereas branch plant employment is highest in small, economically specialized places. Both headquarters and branch plant activity proved to be associated with the percent of the SMSA labor force employed in manufacturing, however. The suggestion drawn from earlier studies, that specialization in metropolitan financial-commercial functions should be related to the headquarters' presence, receives only mixed and ambiguous support in this investigation.     

Changing patterns of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States: Recent evidence

Data from the 1975 Current Population Survey confirm that, during 1970–1975, there was a reversal of the traditional net migration stream between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. During this period, there was net in-migration of 1,600,000 persons to nonmetropolitan areas, in contrast to net out-migration of 350,000 persons from these areas in 1965–1970. Reversal was caused by a 12 percent decrease in the number of nonmetropolitan out-migrants and a 23 percent increase in the number of SMSA residents moving to nonmetropolitan territory over 1965–1970 levels. While some changes in the size of migration streams were due to changes in age structures and population bases in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, they were caused primarily by real shifts in outmigration propensities at practically all ages in both areas.     

Patterns of suburban population growth, 1970–75

Population redistribution within U.S. suburban rings between 1970 and 1975 was characterized by frequent population declines for individual suburbs. On the whole, recent spatial patterns of suburban population decline are similar in nature, if not overall levels, to those found in the 1950s and 1960s. Population decline is greatest in the inner suburbs, and is also evident, to some extent, in the most peripheral suburbs. Patterns for all metropolitan areas mask clear variation among metropolitan areas. This variation is related to metropolitan age or historical period of development.     

Residential redistribution of socioeconomic strata in metropolitan areas

This paper is a preliminary report on an ecological analysis of recent changes in the spatial distribution of socioeconomic strata within 363 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (or substituted units) in the United States. The central hypothesis guiding the study is that certain population subgroups in and around the larger urban areas are shifting their residential locations in predictable directions. Changes in the distribution of educational classes between the central city (or cities) and their surrounding rings from 1950 to 1960 are traced by using census data. A special feature of the analysis is the inclusion of 163 "lquasi-metropolitan areas" centered on cities that had 25,000-50,000 inhabitants in 1960.The initial results indicate that residential redistribution according to "social class" is occurring in all these metropolitan areas and that the pattern of change varies systematically. Regional differences are pronounced, and, as prior research has suggested, age of the city and population size appear to be important factors. The percent of adults in the high school and college categories in the rings of older and larger metropolitan areas generally increased disproportionately compared to the central cities. A variety of patterns of change, however, occurred among the younger and smaller metropolitan areas.Subsequent analyses will include (a) alternative methods of controlling color and regional location, (b) other measures of the independent and dependent variables used here, and (c) a multivariate approach to the problem of identifying and assessing the explanatory power of additional independent variables (including population growth, the over-all rate of decentralization, annexation history, economic base, and the character of the ring). The extent as well as the direction of change will also be investigated. Finally, the feasibility of quantifying an "evolutionary sequence" in the distribution of social classes will also receive attention.     

Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition

Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940-60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.     

Residential Segregation in the Mid-Sixties

Special censuses conducted by the Bureau of the Census at the request and expense of local governments provide current statistics for many large cities which are compared with corresponding data from the1960 Census. An analysis was made of the changes in the racial composition of the cities, and of the areas within the cities (defined by census tracts) which had a high concentration of Negro population in 1960 for ten cities of 100,000 or more population at mid-decade.As in the 1950-60 period, Negroes continue to move into the central cities of metropolitan areas while white persons continue to move out to the suburbs at a faster rate, and this results in net declines in the populations of the cities. The proportion of nonwhite persons living in areas of high Negro concentration has remained about the same or increased slightly in a majority of the cities, while in a few (such as Cleveland, Rochester, and Raleigh) this proportion has declined; that is, relatively more Negroes in these cities now live outside the ghetto neighborhoods. When the racial composition of the ghettos is examined, however, a higher proportion of the residents are now Negro when compared to 1960 in each of the ten cities.Thus, the concentration of Negroes in ghetto areas has shown little change, but the trend of white persons moving away from the Negro neighborhoods, either to other parts of the cities or to the suburbs, has increased sharply, and this has tended to polarize the Negro and white populations within large cities.     

Long-term multivariate prediction of migration patterns

In- and out-migration rates of 56 Israeli cities with a population of over 5000 were predicted for a five-year period (1977–1981), on the basis of four 1976 social indicators: crime rate, percent unemployment, population size and distance from a major metropolitan center. Rather than employ independent correlation coefficients, the four indicators were entered as predictors into regression equations with in- and out-migration rates serving as the dependent variable. The analytic methods are compared and the clear advantages of the regression method emerge. None of the indicators reliably predicted in-migration. Crime consistently predicted out-migration. Distance and unemployment each entered into three of the prediction models.     

Estimates of coverage of the population by sex,race, and age in the 1970 census

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a”preferred” set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on”Medicare” enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked increases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry.     

Urban segregation in Sweden housing policy,housing markets,and the spacial distribution of households in metropolitan areas

The postwar Swedish housing standard has been raised considerably. But there were also unforeseen and undesired side effects in the form of increasing segregation. Between 1965–1975 a great number of rental apartments were built in the periphery of the metropolitan areas. They originally received an overrepresentation of the poor, immigrants, social welfare recipients, and members of the working class. Today these areas face long distances, increasing deterioration and the lower socioeconomic level of their population is accentuated. The following wave of rebuilding in the central metropolitan areas also reinforced residential segregation. As the dwellings became larger and totally modern, the rents rose. Ownership forms often changed to tenant-owned dwellings which drove up the prices of tenant-owned dwellings. The older working-class population was replaced by wealthy families with middle-class backgrounds. The rebuilding in the city centers has in all likelihood been the motor in the overall relocations and migrations of the metropolitan populations during the 1980s. The movement of the middle-class towards the centers corresponds to an increased concentration of workers and various resource-weak groups on the peripheries. This analysis uses a new large micro data base integrating Swedish census and level-of-living survey data on individuals, households and neighbourhoods.Housing segregation has not been seen as a very serious problem in Sweden. Attention has primarily been aimed at providing spatial and modern dwellings for everyone. The construction of housing was explosive through the middle of the 1970s, and it has been supported by substantial general subsidies. Today, Sweden, together with Norway, has Europe's highest and most evenly distributed housing standard. Overcrowding and unmodern housing have for all practical purposes been abolished.     

Growth of small and intermediate cities in Korea, 1975-1980

"This paper examines the urban growth of 33 small and intermediate Korean cities during 1975-1980 from the ecological perspective. Using the multiple regression analysis, population growth of a city is measured by variables such as industrial structure, distance from a metropolitan city, and educational level of residents in a corresponding city. At the present development stage in Korea, those cities whose industrial structure is more specialized in the transformative sector rather than other sectors have grown more rapidly. The closeness to a metropolitan city and the educational level of residents for each city strongly influence urban growth of small cities."     

中国人口压力的定量研究

在对人口压力进行界定、对传统评价人口压力的指标体系进行评述的基础上,把人口与无形资源的状况纳入评价人口压力的指标体系,用人口自然增长率、人口密度、成人识字率、高等教育人口比重及城乡居民的人均消费支出等项指标,构建了衡量人口压力的指标体系,探讨了定量研究人口压力的方法、步骤,并根据2000年人口普查资料,对我国各地区的人口压力进行了赋值与量化。     

Distinguishing the geographic levels and social dimensions of U.S. metropolitan segregation, 1960–2000

In this article, we assess trends in residential segregation in the United States from 1960 to 2000 along several dimensions of race and ethnicity, class, and life cycle and present a method for attributing segregation to nested geographic levels. We measured segregation for metropolitan America using the Theil index, which is additively decomposed into contributions of regional, metropolitan, center city-suburban, place, and tract segregation. This procedure distinguishes whether groups live apart because members cluster in different neighborhoods, communities, metropolitan areas, or regions. Substantively, we found that the segregation of blacks decreased considerably after 1960 largely because neighborhoods became more integrated, but the foreign born became more segregated largely because they concentrated in particular metropolitan areas. Class segregation increased between 1970 and 1990 mainly because the affluent increasingly clustered in specific metropolitan areas and in specific municipalities within metropolitan areas. The unmarried increasingly congregated in center cities. The main purpose of this article is to describe and illustrate this multilevel approach to studying segregation.     

Urban dominance,ecology and community well-being in a Philippine region

There is a strong difference of opinion concerning whether the effects of urban centers are generally beneficial or deleterious to outlying communities. Based on a sample of seventy-three barrios in Cavite Province, this paper examines several basic features of community organization to determine what effects Manila's dominance exerts. The Manila-Cavite metropolitan region is further complicated by a pronounced highland—lowland division. Land tenure, occupational structure, political activity, indebtedness, and measures of community well-being give evidence of both positive and negative effects. However, Manila's dominance does not correspond to uniform gradient patterns. Due to sharp ecological differences, the impact of the city varies between highland and lowland barrios. The fairest conclusion able to be drawn from the evidence is that contact with the city is indispensible and in many ways beneficial, but these benefits are often counterbalanced by economic and social costs for certain communities.     

Age distribution and the stable equivalent

Some populations, like that of the United States in the 1950's, have a smaller proportion of women of reproductive age than they would ultimately attain with continuance of their age-specific birth and deaths rates, a continuance which produces the condition known in demography as stability. Others, like that of the United States in the 1930's, have relatively more women of reproductive age than they would ultimately attain with stability. A way of studying ages is to calculate how many women of stable age distribution would be equivalent from the viewpoint of reproduction to the women observed. This stable equivalent was 69,535,000 or 16 percent below the observed United States female population in 1955, and 12 percent above the observed in 1935. The stable equivalent is a measure of fertility potential, closely related to R. A. Fisher's reproductive value. Calculations for four countries illustrate how a fall of the birth rate, for example in demographic transition, occasions an age distribution in which the stable equivalent is greater than the observed number of women. The notion of stable equivalent is useful for comparison because changes in it are nearly invariant with respect to the age-pattern of fertility used. The statement that the United States stable equivalent increased by 11 percent between 1960 and 1965 holds irrespective of whether the 1960 or the 1965 age-specific fertility and mortality rates are used as standard.     

Migration in the Southeast

Between 1940 and 1960 the Southeast experienced both economic and demographic revolutions. They were interrelated in many ways. Agriculture was mechanized and reorganized making millions of farmers and farm laborers surplus. The natural assets of the region were developed and industry grew more rapidly than in other regions. There were marked changes in the labor force, a rapid increase in the proportion of women employed and a decrease in the proportion of Negroes. The level of family income rose faster than in other regions.Five and three quarter million persons were transferred from the farm population. A net of 2.7 million left the region and 3 million were absorbed in nonfarm areas within the region. In 1960 52 percent of the population was in cities. Increase was especially fast in metropolitan urban areas, mostly in suburbs. There were also substantial increases in the rural nonfarm areas. Small cities as a group showed no net in-migration. Among the net migrants out of the region the ratio was 4 colored to1 white.The age and sex distribution was warped, especially below age 30, slowing down the early marriage rate and the crude birth rate.The projection of the trend which was being followed in the early 1960s indicates that the regional rate of increase may overtake that of the rest of the country, being particularly rapid in the young adult and adolescent ages.For the purposes of this study the Southeast includes: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. These were originally the heaviest cotton producing states and the heart of the sharecropping area where the reorganization of the economy was particularly disruptive.     

Recent nonmetropolitan population change in fifty-year perspective

Post-1970 nonmetropolitan population shifts are examined by dividing nonmetropolitan counties into ten cohorts based on the duration and direction of consistent population change since 1920. Analysis indicates that the post-1970 gains reported by Beale are pervasive in nonmetropolitan America, occurring even in a majority of the counties that lost population consistently from 1920 to 1970.Growth was greatest in counties adjacent to metropolitan areas but was more than urban spillover effect. In a clear break with traditional patterns, net inmigration contributed significantly to overall population gain and was particularly strong among counties without an urban center. The rate of natural increase continued to slow in the post-1970 period, with natural decrease becoming common among counties with protracted histories of population decline.