An objective Bayesian estimation in a two-period crossover design

Two-period crossover design is one of the commonly used designs in clinical trials. But, the estimation of treatment effect is complicated by the possible presence of carryover effect. It is known that ignoring the carryover effect when it exists can lead to poor estimates of the treatment effect. The classical approach by Grizzle (1965 Grizzle, J.E. (1965). The two-period change-over design and its use in clinical trials. Biometrics 21:467–480. See Grizzle (1974) for corrections.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) consists of two stages. First, a preliminary test is conducted on carryover effect. If the carryover effect is significant, analysis is based only on data from period one; otherwise, analysis is based on data from both periods. A Bayesian approach with improper priors was proposed by Grieve (1985 Grieve, A.P. (1985). A Bayesian analysis of the two-period crossover design for clinical trials. Biometrics 41:979–990.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) which uses a mixture of two models: a model with carryover effect and another without. The indeterminacy of the Bayes factor due to the arbitrary constant in the improper prior was addressed by assigning a minimally discriminatory value to the constant. In this article, we present an objective Bayesian estimation approach to the two-period crossover design which is also based on a mixture model, but using the commonly recommended Zellner–Siow g-prior. We provide simulation studies and a real data example and compare the numerical results with Grizzle (1965 Grizzle, J.E. (1965). The two-period change-over design and its use in clinical trials. Biometrics 21:467–480. See Grizzle (1974) for corrections.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])’s and Grieve (1985 Grieve, A.P. (1985). A Bayesian analysis of the two-period crossover design for clinical trials. Biometrics 41:979–990.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])’s approaches.     

An efficient use of moment's ratios of scrambling variables in a randomized response technique

This paper aimed at providing an efficient new unbiased estimator for estimating the proportion of a potentially sensitive attribute in survey sampling. The suggested randomization device makes use of the means, variances of scrambling variables, and the two scalars lie between “zero” and “one.” Thus, the same amount of information has been used at the estimation stage. The variance formula of the suggested estimator has been obtained. We have compared the proposed unbiased estimator with that of Kuk (1990 Kuk, A.Y.C. (1990). Asking sensitive questions inderectely. Biometrika 77:436–438.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Franklin (1989 Franklin, L.A. (1989). A comparision of estimators for randomized response sampling with continuous distribution s from a dichotomous population. Commun. Stat. Theor. Methods 18:489–505.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimators. Relevant conditions are obtained in which the proposed estimator is more efficient than Kuk (1990 Kuk, A.Y.C. (1990). Asking sensitive questions inderectely. Biometrika 77:436–438.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Franklin (1989 Franklin, L.A. (1989). A comparision of estimators for randomized response sampling with continuous distribution s from a dichotomous population. Commun. Stat. Theor. Methods 18:489–505.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimators. The optimum estimator (OE) in the proposed class of estimators has been identified which finally depends on moments ratios of the scrambling variables. The variance of the optimum estimator has been obtained and compared with that of the Kuk (1990 Kuk, A.Y.C. (1990). Asking sensitive questions inderectely. Biometrika 77:436–438.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Franklin (1989 Franklin, L.A. (1989). A comparision of estimators for randomized response sampling with continuous distribution s from a dichotomous population. Commun. Stat. Theor. Methods 18:489–505.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator and Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator. It is interesting to mention that the “optimum estimator” of the class of estimators due to Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) depends on the parameter π under investigation which limits the use of Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) OE in practice while the proposed OE in this paper is free from such a constraint. The proposed OE depends only on the moments ratios of scrambling variables. This is an advantage over the Singh and Chen (2009 Singh, S., Chen, C.C. (2009). Utilization of higher order moments of scrambling variables in randomized response sampling. J. Stat. Plann. Inference. 139:3377–3380.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator. Numerical illustrations are given in the support of the present study when the scrambling variables follow normal distribution. Theoretical and empirical results are very sound and quite illuminating in the favor of the present study.     

Test of Independence for Baker’s Bivariate Distributions

Baker (2008 Baker, R. (2008). An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99: 2312–2327.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduced a new method for constructing multivariate distributions with given marginals based on order statistics. In this paper, we provide a test of independence for a pair of absolutely continuous random variables (X, Y) jointly distributed according to Baker’s bivariate distributions. Our purpose is to test the hypothesis that X and Y are independent versus the alternative that X and Y are positively (negatively) quadrant dependent. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is investigated. Also, the powers of the proposed test and the class of distribution-free tests proposed by Kochar and Gupta (1987 Kochar, S. G., Gupta, R. P. (1987). Competitors of Kendall-tau test for testing independence against positive quadrant dependence. Biometrika 74(3): 664–666.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) are compared empirically via a simulation study.     

On the optimal allocation of active redundancies in series system

This paper studies the allocations of two non identical active redundancies in series systems in terms of the reversed hazard rate order and hazard rate order, which generalizes some results built in Valdés and Zequeira (2003 Valdés, J. E., and R. I. Zequeira 2003. On the optimal allocation of an active redundancy in a two-component series system. Stat. Probab. Lett. 63:325–32.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2006 Valdés, J. E., and R. I. Zequeira 2006. On the optimal allocation of two active redundancies in a two-component series system. Oper. Res. Lett. 34:49–52.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Bimodal symmetric-asymmetric power-normal families

This article proposes new symmetric and asymmetric distributions applying methods analogous as the ones in Kim (2005 Kim, H.J. (2005). On a class of two-piece skew-normal distributions. Statist.: J. Theoret. Appl. Statist. 39:537–553.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Arnold et al. (2009 Arnold, B.C., H.W. Gómez, and H.S. Salinas. (2009). On multiple constraint skewed models. Statist. J. Theoret. Appl. Statist. 43: 279–293.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the exponentiated normal distribution studied in Durrans (1992 Durrans, S.R. (1992). Distributions of fractional order statistics in hydrology. Water Resour. Res. 28:1649–1655.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), that we call the power-normal (PN) distribution. The proposed bimodal extension, the main focus of the paper, is called the bimodal power-normal model and is denoted by BPN(α) model, where α is the asymmetry parameter. The authors give some properties including moments and maximum likelihood estimation. Two important features of the model proposed is that its normalizing constant has closed and simple form and that the Fisher information matrix is nonsingular, guaranteeing large sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, simulation studies and real applications reveal that the proposed model can perform well in both situations.     

A bivariate generalized geometric distribution with applications

This paper proposes a bivariate version of the univariate discrete generalized geometric distribution considered by Gómez–Déniz (2010 Gómez–Déniz, E. (2010). Another generalization of the geometric distribution. Test 19:399–415.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The proposed bivariate distribution can have a positive or negative correlation coefficient which can be used for modeling bivariate-dependent count data. After discussing some of its properties, maximum likelihood estimation is discussed. Two illustrative examples are given for fitting and demonstrating the usefulness of the new bivariate distribution proposed here.     

Linear transformation models for survival analysis with tumor growth information in cancer screening study

The complication in analyzing tumor data is that the tumors detected in a screening program tend to be slowly progressive tumors, which is the so-called left-truncated sampling that is inherent in screening studies. Under the assumption that all subjects have the same tumor growth function, Ghosh (2008 Ghosh, D. (2008). Proportional hazards regression for cancer studies. Biometrics 64:141–148.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) developed estimation procedures for the Cox proportional hazards model. Shen (2011a Shen, P.-S. (2011a). Proportional hazards regression for cancer screening data. J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 18:367–377.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) demonstrated that Ghosh (2008 Ghosh, D. (2008). Proportional hazards regression for cancer studies. Biometrics 64:141–148.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])'s approach can be extended to the case when each subject has a specific growth function. In this article, under linear transformation model, we present a general framework to the analysis of data from cancer screening studies. We developed estimation procedures under linear transformation model, which includes Cox's model as a special case. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the proposed estimators.     

On fiducial generators

Fiducial inference has been gaining presence recently and it is the intention of the present article to look at the notion of fiducial generators; meaning procedures to simulate parameter values that in some sense correspond to simulations from some implicit fiducial distribution. It is well known that when the distribution has group structure, stemming from the natural pivotal associated, a fiducial may be obtained. It is in the non group distributions that there appears to be still room for finding a fiducial distribution. Recently some general procedures have been proposed for dealing with generalized fiducials, but these depend on certain choices for a structural equation or a fiducial equation, as in Hannig (2009 Hannig, J. (2009). On generalized fiducial inference. Stat. Sin. 19:491–544.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) or Taraldsen and Lindqvist (2013 Taraldsen, G., Lindqvist, B.H. (2013). Fiducial theory and optimal inference. Ann. Stat. 41(1):323–341.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), respectively. A brief presentation is made of an earlier approach to fiducial inference for multivariate parameters, as in Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):1349–1355.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), and the implied fiducial generator introduced in Engen and Lillegård (1997 Engen, S., Lillegård, M. (1997). Stochastic simulation conditioned on sufficient statistics. Biometrika 84(1):235–240.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), trying to connect them. Three interesting non group distributions are seen; two of them, the truncated exponential and the two-parameter gamma, already reported in literature. A third non group distribution is analyzed; the inverse Gaussian, connecting the fiducial that results following Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):1349–1355.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), with a result pertaining confidence limits for the shape parameter in Hsieh (1990 Hsieh, H.K. (1990). Inferences on the coefficient of variation of an inverse-Gaussian distribution. Commun. Stat. - Theory Methods 19(5):1589–1605.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In the three cases, comparisons are made with the Bayesian posteriors that have been known to be close numerically. Some discussion is made on the issue of singularities of the fiducial density and its connection with densities that do not integrate to unity. As to the case of discrete observables, some comments are made for the Bernoulli distribution, only.     

A Modification of a Percentile Estimation Procedure Based on Generalized Polya Urns

Adaptive designs find an important application in the estimation of unknown percentiles for an underlying dose-response curve. A nonparametric adaptive design was suggested by Mugno et al. (2004 Mugno, R.A., Zhus, W., Rosenberger, W.F. (2004). Adaptive urn designs for estimating several percentiles of a dose-response curve. Statist. Med. 23(13):2137–2150.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to simultaneously estimate multiple percentiles of an unknown dose-response curve via generalized Polya urns. In this article, we examine the properties of the design proposed by Mugno et al. (2004 Mugno, R.A., Zhus, W., Rosenberger, W.F. (2004). Adaptive urn designs for estimating several percentiles of a dose-response curve. Statist. Med. 23(13):2137–2150.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) when delays in observing responses are encountered. Using simulations, we evaluate a modification of the design under varying group sizes. Our results demonstrate unbiased estimation with minimal loss in efficiency when compared to the original compound urn design.     

Successive comparisons between ordered normal means using isotonic regression estimators

In this study we discuss multiple comparison procedures for checking differences among a sequence of normal means with ordered restriction. Lee and Spurrier (1995 Lee, R.E., Spurrier, J.D. (1995). Successive comparisons between ordered treatments. J. Stat. Plann. Inference 43:323–330.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a multiple comparison procedure which tests the difference between two adjacent means using the difference of sample means. In this study we propose a multiple comparison procedure modifying Lee and Spurrier's (1995 Lee, R.E., Spurrier, J.D. (1995). Successive comparisons between ordered treatments. J. Stat. Plann. Inference 43:323–330.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) procedure using isotonic regression estimators instead of sample means. We determine the critical value for pairwise comparisons for a specified significance level. Furthermore, we formulate the power of the test. Finally, we give some numerical examples regarding critical values and power of the test intended to compare our procedure with Lee and Spurrier's (1995 Lee, R.E., Spurrier, J.D. (1995). Successive comparisons between ordered treatments. J. Stat. Plann. Inference 43:323–330.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) procedure.     

Tuning Parameter Selection in Penalized Frailty Models

The penalized likelihood approach of Fan and Li (2001 Fan, J., Li, R. (2001). Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties. Journal of the American Association 96:1348–1360.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2002 Fan, J., Li, R. (2002). Variable selection for Cox’s proportional hazards model and frailty model. The Annals of Statistics 30:74–99.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) differs from the traditional variable selection procedures in that it deletes the non-significant variables by estimating their coefficients as zero. Nevertheless, the desirable performance of this shrinkage methodology relies heavily on an appropriate selection of the tuning parameter which is involved in the penalty functions. In this work, new estimates of the norm of the error are firstly proposed through the use of Kantorovich inequalities and, subsequently, applied to the frailty models framework. These estimates are used in order to derive a tuning parameter selection procedure for penalized frailty models and clustered data. In contrast with the standard methods, the proposed approach does not depend on resampling and therefore results in a considerable gain in computational time. Moreover, it produces improved results. Simulation studies are presented to support theoretical findings and two real medical data sets are analyzed.     

Frailty models power variance function with cure fraction and latent risk factors negative binomial

In this article, we propose a flexible cure rate model, which is an extension of Cancho et al. (2011 Cancho, V.G., Rodrigues, J., de Castro, M. (2011). A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: A Bayesian approach. J. Appl. Stat. 38:57–70.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model, by incorporating a power variance function (PVF) frailty term in latent risk. The model is more flexible in terms of dispersion and it also quantifies the unobservable heterogeneity. The parameter estimation is reached by maximum likelihood estimation procedure and Monte Carlo simulation studies are considered to evaluate the proposed model performance. The practical relevance of the model is illustrated in a real data set of preventing cancer recurrence.     

An extension of almost sure central limit theorem for the maximum of stationary Gaussian random fields

Let X₁, X₂, … be a sequence of stationary standardized Gaussian random fields. The almost sure limit theorem for the maxima of stationary Gaussian random fields is established. Our results extend and improve the results in Csáki and Gonchigdanzan (2002 Csáki, E., Gonchigdanzan, K. (2002). Almost sure limit theorems for the maximum of stationary Gaussian sequences. Stat. Probab. Lett. 58:195–203.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Choi (2010 Choi, H. (2010). Almost sure limit theorem for stationary Gaussian random fields. J. Korean Stat. Soc. 39:449–454.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Darling-Erdös-type test for change detection in parameters and variance for stationary VAR models

The aim of this article is the construction of the test statistic for the detection of changes in vector autoregressive (AR) models where both AR parameters and the variance matrix of the error term are the subjects of a change. The approximating distribution of the proposed statistic is the Gumbel distribution. The proof stands on the approximation of weakly dependent random vectors by independent ones and by application of Horváth’s extension of Darling-Erdös extremal result for random vectors, see Darling and Erdös (1956) Darling, D.A., Erdös, P. (1956). A limit theorem for the maximum of normalized sums of independent random variables. Duke Math. J. 23:143–155.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and Horváth (1993) Horváth, L. (1993). The maximum likelihood method for testing changes in the parameters of normal observations. Ann. Stat. 21(2):671–680.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. The test statistic is a modification of the likelihood ratio.     

Complete and complete moment convergence for i.i.d. random variables under exponential moment conditions

In this paper, we establish a complete convergence result and a complete moment convergence result for i.i.d. random variables under moment condition which is slightly weaker than the existence of the moment generating function. The main results extend and improve the related known results of Lanzinger (1998 Lanzinger, H. (1998). A Baum-Katz theorem for random variables under exponential moment conditions. Stat. Probab. Lett. 39(2):89–95.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Gut and Stadtmüller (2011 Gut, A., Stadtmüller, U. (2011). An intermediate Baum-Katz theorem. Stat. Probab. Lett. 81(10):1486–1492.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Universally optimal designs under interference models with and without block effects

The concept of neighbor designs was introduced and defined by Rees (1967 Rees, D.H. (1967). Some designs of use in serology. Biometrics 23:779–791.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) along with giving some methods of their construction. Henceforth, many methods of construction of neighbor designs as well as of their generalizations are available in the literature. However, there are only few results on their optimality. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to give an overview of study on this problem. Recent results on optimality of specified neighbor balanced designs under various interference models with block effects are presented and then these results are compared with respective models where block effects are not significant.     

Generalized linear regression models incorporating original outcome distributions

ABSTRACT

In this article, we propose an approach for incorporating continuous and discrete original outcome distributions into the usual exponential family regression models. The new approach is an extension of the works of Suissa (1991 Suissa, S. (1991). Binary methods for continuous outcomes: A parametric alternative. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 44:241–248.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Suissa and Blais (1995 Suissa, S., Blais, L. (1995). Binary regression with continuous outcomes. Stat. Med. 14:247–255.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which present methods to estimate the risk of an event defined in a sample subspace of an original continuous outcome variable. Simulation studies are presented in order to illustrate the performance of the developed methodology. Real data sets are analyzed by using the proposed models.     

Bayesian Estimation for Linear Functions of Poisson Rates

The probability matching prior for linear functions of Poisson parameters is derived. A comparison is made between the confidence intervals obtained by Stamey and Hamilton (2006 Stamey, J., Hamilton, C. (2006). A note on confidence intervals for a linear function of Poisson rates. Commun. Statist. Simul. &; Computat. 35(4):849–856.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and the intervals derived by us when using the Jeffreys’ and probability matching priors. The intervals obtained from the Jeffreys’ prior are in some cases fiducial intervals (Krishnamoorthy and Lee, 2010 Krishnamoorthy, K., Lee, M. (2010). Inference for functions of parameters in discrete distributions based on fiducial approach: Binomial and Poisson cases. J. Statist. Plann. Infere. 140(5):1182–1192.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A weighted Monte Carlo method is used for the probability matching prior. The power and size of the test, using Bayesian methods, is compared to tests used by Krishnamoorthy and Thomson (2004 Krishnamoorthy, K., Thomson, J. (2004). A more powerful test for comparing two Poisson means. J. Statist. Plann. Infere. 119(1):23–35.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The Jeffreys’, probability matching and two other priors are used.     

On dynamic weighted survival entropy of order α

Recently, Abbasnejad et al. (2010 Abbasnejad, M., Arghami, N.R., Morgenthaler, S., Mohtashami Borzadaran, G.R. (2010). On the dynamic survival entropy. Stat. Probab. Lett. 80:1962–1971.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a measure of uncertainty based on survival function, called the survival entropy of order α. A dynamic form of the survival entropy of order α is also proposed by them. In this paper, we derive the weighted form of these measures. The properties of the new measures are also discussed.     

Credibility premium for rate-making systems

Credibility formula has been developed in many fields of actuarial sciences. Based upon Payandeh (2010 Payandeh, A.T. (2010). A new approach to the credibility formula. Insur.: Math. Econ. 46(2):334–338.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), this article extends concept of credibility formula to relatively premium of a given rate-making system. More precisely, it calculates Payandeh’s (2010 Payandeh, A.T. (2010). A new approach to the credibility formula. Insur.: Math. Econ. 46(2):334–338.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) credibility factor for zero-inflated Poisson gamma distributions with respect to several loss functions. A comparison study has been given.