Estimators for the Drift of Subfractional Brownian Motion

In this paper, we consider, using technique based on Girsanov theorem, the problem of efficient estimation for the drift of subfractional Brownian motion S^H ? (S^H_t)_{t ∈ [0, T]}. We also construct a class of biased estimators of James-Stein type which dominate, under the usual quadratic risk, the natural maximum likelihood estimator.     

A lower bound for the transition density function of a stochastic differential equation

Let W_t be a one-dimensional Brownian motion on the probability space (Ω,F,P), and let dx_t = a(x_t)dt + b(x_t)dw_t, b²(x) > 0, be a one-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation. For a(x) = a₀ + a₁x + … + a_nxⁿ on a bounded interval we obtain a lower bound for p(t,x,y), the transition density function of the homogeneous Markov process x_t, depending directly on the coefficients a₀,a₁, …, a_n, and b(x).     

On drift parameter estimation in models with fractional Brownian motion

We consider a stochastic differential equation involving standard and fractional Brownian motion with unknown drift parameter to be estimated. We investigate the standard maximum likelihood estimate of the drift parameter, two non-standard estimates and three estimates for the sequential estimation. Model strong consistency and some other properties are proved. The linear model and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model are studied in detail. As an auxiliary result, an asymptotic behaviour of the fractional derivative of the fractional Brownian motion is established.     

On Estimation of Hurst Parameter Under Noisy Observations

It is widely accepted that some financial data exhibit long memory or long dependence, and that the observed data usually possess noise. In the continuous time situation, the factional Brownian motion B^H and its extension are an important class of models to characterize the long memory or short memory of data, and Hurst parameter H is an index to describe the degree of dependence. In this article, we estimate the Hurst parameter of a discretely sampled fractional integral process corrupted by noise. We use the preaverage method to diminish the impact of noise, employ the filter method to exclude the strong dependence, and obtain the smoothed data, and estimate the Hurst parameter by the smoothed data. The asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established. Simulations for evaluating the performance of the estimator are conducted. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

The Asymptotic Behavior of a Brownian Motion with a Drift from a Random Domain

Consider a Brownian motion with drift starting at an interior point of a random domain D in R ^d+1, d ≥ 1, let τ _D denote the first time the Brownian motion exits from D. Estimates with exact constants for the asymptotics of log P(τ _D  > T) are given for T → ∞, depending on the shape of the domain D and the order of the drift. The problem is motivated by the model in insurance and early works of Lifshits and Shi. The methods of proof are based on the calculus of variations and early works of Li, Lifshits and Shi in the drift free case.     

Models for residual time to AIDS

The distributions of the time from Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection to the onset of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and of the residual time to AIDS diagnosis are important for modeling the growth of the AIDS epidemic and for predicting onset of the disease in an individual. Markers such as CD4 counts carry valuable information about disease progression and therefore about the two survival distributions. Building on the framework set out by Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992), we study these two survival distributions based on stochastic models for the marker process (X(t)) and a marker-dependent hazard (h()). We examine various plausible CD4 marker processes and marker-dependent hazard functions for AIDS proposed in recent literature. For a random effects plus Brownian motion marker process X(t)=(a+bt+BM(t))⁴, where a has a normal distribution, b<0 is an unknown parameter and BM(t) is Brownian motion, and marker-dependent hazard h(X(t)), we prove that, given CD4 cell count X(t), the residual time to AIDS distribution does not depend on the time since infection t. Using simulation and numerical integration, we find the marginal incubation period distribution, the marginal hazard and the residual time distribution for several combinations of marker processes and marker-dependent hazards. An example using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study is given. A simple regression model relating the cube root of residual time to AIDS to CD4 count is suggested.     

Exact predictors for a generalized ar(1) process with an ar(1) parameter

The generalized AR(1) process y _t = a _t y _t-1+ v _t is considered, where the parameter a _t follows the AR(1) process a _t = Ga _t-1+ w _t.Assuming that V _t and w _t are Gaussian and independent, the first six exact predictors for future values of y _t are derived. These exact predictors are compared with Box-Jenkins -type approximations. MACSYMA, a computer algebra program, is utilized in the derivation of the predictors.     

A new robust Kalman filter for filtering the microstructure noise

We propose a robust Kalman filter (RKF) to estimate the true but hidden return when microstructure noise is present. Following Zhou's definition, we assume the observed return Y_t is the result of adding microstructure noise to the true but hidden return X_t. Microstructure noise is assumed to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.); it is also independent of X_t. When X_t is sampled from a geometric Brownian motion process to yield Y_t, the Kalman filter can produce optimal estimates of X_t from Y_t. However, the covariance matrix of microstructure noise and that of X_t must be known for this claim to hold. In practice, neither covariance matrix is known so they must be estimated. Our RKF, in contrast, does not need the covariance matrices as input. Simulation results show that the RKF gives essentially identical estimates to the Kalman filter, which has access to the covariance matrices. As applications, estimated X_t can be used to estimate the volatility of X_t.     

Variance Estimation for Fractional Brownian Motions with Fixed Hurst Parameters

Some real-world phenomena in geo-science, micro-economy, and turbulence, to name a few, can be effectively modeled by a fractional Brownian motion indexed by a Hurst parameter, a regularity level, and a scaling parameter σ², an energy level. This article discusses estimation of a scaling parameter σ² when a Hurst parameter is known. To estimate σ², we propose three approaches based on maximum likelihood estimation, moment-matching, and concentration inequalities, respectively, and discuss the theoretical characteristics of the estimators and optimal-filtering guidelines. We also justify the improvement of the estimation of σ² when a Hurst parameter is known. Using the three approaches and a parametric bootstrap methodology in a simulation study, we compare the confidence intervals of σ² in terms of their lengths, coverage rates, and computational complexity and discuss empirical attributes of the tested approaches. We found that the approach based on maximum likelihood estimation was optimal in terms of efficiency and accuracy, but computationally expensive. The moment-matching approach was found to be not only comparably efficient and accurate but also computationally fast and robust to deviations from the fractional Brownian motion model.     

Accelerated Degradation Models for Failure Based on Geometric Brownian Motion and Gamma Processes

Based on a generalized cumulative damage approach with a stochastic process describing degradation, new accelerated life test models are presented in which both observed failures and degradation measures can be considered for parametric inference of system lifetime. Incorporating an accelerated test variable, we provide several new accelerated degradation models for failure based on the geometric Brownian motion or gamma process. It is shown that in most cases, our models for failure can be approximated closely by accelerated test versions of Birnbaum–Saunders and inverse Gaussian distributions. Estimation of model parameters and a model selection procedure are discussed, and two illustrative examples using real data for carbon-film resistors and fatigue crack size are presented.     

On Error Rates in Normal Approximations and Simulation Schemes for Lévy Processes

Let X=(X(t) : t≥0) be a Lévy process. In simulation, one often wants to know at what size it is possible to truncate the small jumps while retaining enough accuracy. A useful tool here is the Edgeworth expansion. We provide a third order expansion together with a uniform error bound, assuming third Lévy moment is 0. We next discuss approximating X in the finite variation case. Truncating the small jumps, we show that, adding their expected value, and further, including their variability by approximating by a Brownian motion, gives successively better results in general. Finally, some numerical illustrations involving a normal inverse Gaussian Lévy process are given.     

Heine process as a q-analog of the Poisson process—waiting and interarrival times

In this study, we introduce the Heine process, {X_q(t), t > 0}, 0 < q < 1, where the random variable X_q(t), for every t > 0, represents the number of events (occurrences or arrivals) during a time interval (0, t]. The Heine process is introduced as a q-analog of the basic Poisson process. Also, in this study, we prove that the distribution of the waiting time W_{ν, q}, ν ? 1, up to the νth arrival, is a q-Erlang distribution and the interarrival times T_{k, q} = W_{k, q} ? W_{k ? 1, q},?k = 1, 2, …, ν with W_{0, q} = 0 are independent and equidistributed with a q-Exponential distribution.     

Remarks on an integral functional driven by sub-fractional Brownian motion

This paper studies the functionals where is a one-dimension sub-fractional Brownian motion with index H∈(0,1). It shows that there exists a constant p_H∈(1,2) such that p-variation of the process (j=1,2) is equal to 0 if p>p_H, where ?_j, j=1,2, are the local time and weighted local time of S^H, respectively. This extends the classical results for Brownian motion.     

Strassen type limit points for moving averages of a wiener process

Let {W(s); 8 ≥ 0} be a standard Wiener process, and let β_N = (2a_N (log (N/a_N) + log log N)^-1/2, 0 < α_N ≤ N < ∞, where α_N↑ and α_N/N is a non-increasing function of N, and define γ_N(t) = β_N[W(n_N + ta_N) ? W(n_N)), 0 ≥ t ≥ 1, with n_N = N – a_N. Let K = {x ? C[0,1]: x is absolutely continuous, x(0) = 0 and }. We prove that, with probability one, the sequence of functions {γ_N(t), t ? [0,1]} is relatively compact in C[0,1] with respect to the sup norm ||·||, and its set of limit points is K. With a_N = N, our result reduces to Strassen's well-known theorem. Our method of proof follows Strassen's original, direct approach. The latter, however, contains an oversight which, in turn, renders his proof invalid. Strassen's theorem is true, of course, and his proof can also be rectified. We do this in a somewhat more general context than that of his original theorem. Applications to partial sums of independent identically distributed random variables are also considered.     

Some Asymptotic Formulas for a Brownian Motion With a Regular Variation From a Parabolic Domain

Consider a Brownian motion with a regular variation starting at an interior point of a domain D in R^{d + 1}, d ? 1 and let τ_D denote the first time the Brownian motion exits from D. Estimates with exact constants for the asymptotics of log?P(τ_D > T) are given for T → ∞, depending on the shape of the domain D and the order of the regular variation. Furthermore, the asymptotically equivalence are obtained. The problem is motivated by the early results of Lifshits and Shi, Li in the first exit time, and Karamata in the regular variation. The methods of proof are based on their results and the calculus of variations.     

Conditional moving linear regression: Modeling the recruitment process for ALLHAT

Effective recruitment is a prerequisite for successful execution of a clinical trial. ALLHAT, a large hypertension treatment trial (N = 42,418), provided an opportunity to evaluate adaptive modeling of recruitment processes using conditional moving linear regression. Our statistical modeling of recruitment, comparing Brownian and fractional Brownian motion, indicates that fractional Brownian motion combined with moving linear regression is better than classic Brownian motion in terms of higher conditional probability of achieving a global recruitment goal in 4-week ahead projections. Further research is needed to evaluate how recruitment modeling can assist clinical trialists in planning and executing clinical trials.