Large and moderate deviations for the total population in the nearly unstable INAR(1) model

This paper considers the non negative integer-valued autoregressive process with order one (INAR(1)), where the autoregression parameter is close to unity. Using the methods introduced by Yu, Wang, and Chen (2016 Yu, S. H., D. H. Wang, and X. Chen. 2016. Large and moderate deviations for the total population arising from a sub-critical Galton-Watson process with immigration. Journal of Theoretical Probabiltiy, doi:10.1007/s10959-016-0706-4.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), the large and moderate deviations with explicit rate functions for the total population of this process can be obtained.     

The Beta Exponential-Geometric Distribution

A new four-parameter distribution with decreasing, increasing, and upside-down bathtub failure rate called the beta exponential-geometric distribution is proposed. The new distribution, generated from the logit of a beta random variable, extends the exponential-geometric distribution of Adamidis and Loukas (1998 Adamidis , K. , Loukas , S. ( 1998 ). A lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate . Statistics and Probability Letters 39 : 35 – 42 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and some other distributions. A comprehensive mathematical treatment of this distribution is provided. Some expressions for the moment generating function, moments, order statistics, and Rényi entropy of the new distribution are derived. Estimation of the stress-strength parameter is also obtained. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method and Fisher information matrix is discussed. Finally, an application to a real data set is illustrated.     

Measures of information for maximum ranked set sampling with unequal samples

Biradar and Santosha (2014 Biradar, B. S., and C. D. Santosha. 2014. Estimation of the mean of the exponential distribution using maximum ranked set sampling with unequal samples. Open Journal of Statistics 4:641–49.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) proposed maximum ranked set sampling procedure with unequal samples (MRSSU) to estimate the mean of the exponential distribution. In this paper, we consider information measures of MRSSU in terms of Shannon entropy, Rényi entropy and Kullback-Leibler (KL) information. We also compare the uncertainty and information content of MRSSU with simple random sampling and ranked set sampling data. Finally, we develop some characterization results in terms of cumulative entropy and failure entropy of MRSSU.     

On the optimal allocation of active redundancies in series system

This paper studies the allocations of two non identical active redundancies in series systems in terms of the reversed hazard rate order and hazard rate order, which generalizes some results built in Valdés and Zequeira (2003 Valdés, J. E., and R. I. Zequeira 2003. On the optimal allocation of an active redundancy in a two-component series system. Stat. Probab. Lett. 63:325–32.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2006 Valdés, J. E., and R. I. Zequeira 2006. On the optimal allocation of two active redundancies in a two-component series system. Oper. Res. Lett. 34:49–52.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

A New Generalized Exponential Geometric Distribution

In this article, another version of the generalized exponential geometric distribution different to that of Silva et al. (2010 Silva , R. B. , Barreto-Souza , W. , Cordeiro , G. M. ( 2010 ). A new distribution with decreasing, increasing and upside-down bathtub failure rate. Computat. Statist. Data Anal. 54: 935–944 . [Google Scholar]) is proposed. This new three-parameter lifetime distribution with decreasing, increasing, and bathtub failure rate function is created by compounding the generalized exponential distribution of Gupta and Kundu (1999 Gupta , R. D. , Kundu , D. ( 1999 ). Generalized exponential distributions . Austral. NZ J. Statist. 41 ( 2 ): 173 – 188 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with a geometric distribution. Some basic distributional properties, moment-generating function, rth moment, and Rényi entropy of the new distribution are studied. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method and the asymptotic distribution of estimators is discussed. Finally, an application of the new distribution is illustrated using the two real data sets.     

Barnard Convex Sets

In calculating significance levels for statistical non inferiority tests, the critical regions that satisfy the Barnard convexity condition have a central role. According to a theorem proved by Röhmel and Mansmann (1999 Röhmel , J. , Mansmann , U. ( 1999 ). Unconditional nonasymptotic one sided tests for independent binomial proportions when the interest lies in showing noninferiority and or superiority . Biometr. J. 2 : 149 – 170 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), when the critical regions satisfy this condition, the significance level for non inferiority tests can be calculated much more efficiently. In this study, the sets that fulfil the Barnard convexity condition are called Barnard convex sets, and because of their relevance, we studied their properties independently of the context from which the sets originated. Among several results, we found that Barnard convex sets are a convex geometry and that each Barnard convex set has a unique basis. Also, we provide an algorithm for calculating the Barnard convex hull of any set. Finally, we present some applications of the concept of the Barnard convex hull of a set for non inferiority tests.     

General mathematical properties,regression and applications of the log-gamma-generated family

The construction of some wider families of continuous distributions obtained recently has attracted applied statisticians due to the analytical facilities available for easy computation of special functions in programming software. We study some general mathematical properties of the log-gamma-generated (LGG) family defined by Amini, MirMostafaee, and Ahmadi (2014 Amini, M., S. M. T. K. MirMostafaee, and J. Ahmadi. 2014. Log-gamma-generated families of distributions. Statistics 48:913–32.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). It generalizes the gamma-generated class pioneered by Risti? and Balakrishnan (2012 Risti?, M. M., and N. Balakrishnan. 2012. The gamma exponentiated exponential distribution. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 82:1191–206.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We present some of its special models and derive explicit expressions for the ordinary and incomplete moments, generating and quantile functions, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, Shannon entropy, Rényi entropy, reliability, and order statistics. Models in this family are compared with nested and non nested models. Further, we propose and study a new LGG family regression model. We demonstrate that the new regression model can be applied to censored data since it represents a parametric family of models and therefore can be used more effectively in the analysis of survival data. We prove that the proposed models can provide consistently better fits in some applications to real data sets.     

Ridge estimator with correlated errors and two-stage ridge estimator under inequality restrictions

Liew (1976a Liew, C.K. (1976a). A two-stage least-squares estimation with inequality restrictions on parameters. Rev. Econ. Stat. LVIII(2):234–238.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduced generalized inequality constrained least squares (GICLS) estimator and inequality constrained two-stage and three-stage least squares estimators by reducing primal–dual relation to problem of Dantzig and Cottle (1967 Dantzig, G.B., Cottle, R.W. (1967). Positive (semi-) definite matrices and mathematical programming. In: Abadie, J., ed. Nonlinear Programming (pp. 55–73). Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Co. [Google Scholar]), Cottle and Dantzig (1974 Cottle, R.W., Dantzig, G.B. (1974). Complementary pivot of mathematical programming. In: Dantzig, G.B., Eaves, B.C., eds. Studies in OptimizationVol. 10. Washington: Mathematical Association of America. [Google Scholar]) and solving with Lemke (1962 Lemke, C.E. (1962). A method of solution for quadratic programs. Manage. Sci. 8(4):442–453.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) algorithm. The purpose of this article is to present inequality constrained ridge regression (ICRR) estimator with correlated errors and inequality constrained two-stage and three-stage ridge regression estimators in the presence of multicollinearity. Untruncated variance–covariance matrix and mean square error are derived for the ICRR estimator with correlated errors, and its superiority over the GICLS estimator is examined via Monte Carlo simulation.     

A modified confidence set for the structural break date in linear regression models

Elliott and Müller (EM) (2007 Elliott, G., Müller, U. K. (2007). Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions. Journal of Econometrics 141:1196–1218.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) provide a method for constructing a confidence set for the structural break date by inverting a variant of the locally best test statistic. Previous studies have shown that the EM method produces a set with an accurate coverage ratio even for a small break; however, the set is often overly lengthy. This study proposes a simple modification to rehabilitate their method through the long-run variance estimation. Following the literature, we provide an asymptotic justification for the improvement of the modified method over the original method under a nonlocal asymptotic framework. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that the modified method achieves a shorter confidence set than the EM method, especially when the break is large or the HAC correction is conducted. The modified method may exhibit minor errors in the coverage rate when the break is small; however, the coverage is more stable than alternative methods when the break is large. We apply our method to a level shift in post-1980s Japanese inflation data.     

IPPS Sampling Plans Excluding Adjacent Units

The concept of inclusion probability proportional to size sampling plans excluding adjacent units separated by at most a distance of m (≥ 1) units {IPPSEA plans} is introduced. IPPSEA plans ensure that the first-order inclusion probabilities of units are proportional to size measures of the units, while the second-order inclusion probabilities are zero for pairs of adjacent units separated by a distance of m units or less. IPPSEA plans have been obtained by making use of binary, proper, and unequireplicated block designs and linear programing approach. The performance of IPPSEA plans using Horvitz–Thompson estimator of population total has been compared with existing sampling plans such as simple random sampling without replacement (SRSWOR), balanced sampling plans excluding adjacent units {BSA (m) plans}, probability proportional to size with replacement, Hartley and Rao's plan (1962 Hartley , H. O. , Rao , J. N. K. ( 1962 ). Sampling with unequal probabilities and without replacement . Ann. Math. Statist. 33 : 350 – 374 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Rao et al.'s strategy (1962 Rao , J. N. K. , Hartley , H. O. , Cochran , W. G. ( 1962 ). On a simple procedure of unequal probability sampling without replacement . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 24 : 482 – 491 . [Google Scholar]), and Sampford's IPPS plan (1967 Sampford , M. R. ( 1967 ). On sampling without replacement with unequal probabilities of selection . Biometrika 54 ( 3 ): 499 – 513 .[Crossref], [PubMed] , [Google Scholar]) using a real life population. Unbiased estimation of Horvitz–Thompson estimator of population total is not possible in these types of plans because some of the second-order inclusion probabilities are zero. To resolve this problem, one approximate variance estimation technique has been suggested.     

A Nonparametric Test for Deviation from Randomness with Applications to Stock Market Index Data

The proposed test detects deviations from randomness, without a priori distributional assumption, when observations are not independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), which is suitable for our motivating stock market index data. Departures from i.i.d. are tested by subdividing data into subintervals and then using a conditional probability measure within intervals as a binomial test. This nonparametric test is designed to detect deviations of neighboring observations from randomness when the dataset consists of time series observations. Simulation results and a comparison with Lo and MacKinlay's (1988 Lo, A. W. and MacKinlay, A. C. 1988. Stock market prices do not follow random walks: Evidence from a simple specification test. The Review of Financial Studies, 1: 41–66. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) variance ratio test showed that our proposed test is a competitive alternative.     

On fiducial generators

Fiducial inference has been gaining presence recently and it is the intention of the present article to look at the notion of fiducial generators; meaning procedures to simulate parameter values that in some sense correspond to simulations from some implicit fiducial distribution. It is well known that when the distribution has group structure, stemming from the natural pivotal associated, a fiducial may be obtained. It is in the non group distributions that there appears to be still room for finding a fiducial distribution. Recently some general procedures have been proposed for dealing with generalized fiducials, but these depend on certain choices for a structural equation or a fiducial equation, as in Hannig (2009 Hannig, J. (2009). On generalized fiducial inference. Stat. Sin. 19:491–544.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) or Taraldsen and Lindqvist (2013 Taraldsen, G., Lindqvist, B.H. (2013). Fiducial theory and optimal inference. Ann. Stat. 41(1):323–341.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), respectively. A brief presentation is made of an earlier approach to fiducial inference for multivariate parameters, as in Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):1349–1355.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), and the implied fiducial generator introduced in Engen and Lillegård (1997 Engen, S., Lillegård, M. (1997). Stochastic simulation conditioned on sufficient statistics. Biometrika 84(1):235–240.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), trying to connect them. Three interesting non group distributions are seen; two of them, the truncated exponential and the two-parameter gamma, already reported in literature. A third non group distribution is analyzed; the inverse Gaussian, connecting the fiducial that results following Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):1349–1355.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), with a result pertaining confidence limits for the shape parameter in Hsieh (1990 Hsieh, H.K. (1990). Inferences on the coefficient of variation of an inverse-Gaussian distribution. Commun. Stat. - Theory Methods 19(5):1589–1605.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In the three cases, comparisons are made with the Bayesian posteriors that have been known to be close numerically. Some discussion is made on the issue of singularities of the fiducial density and its connection with densities that do not integrate to unity. As to the case of discrete observables, some comments are made for the Bernoulli distribution, only.     

Designs Robust against Violation of Normality Assumption in the Standard F-test

In this article, designs are found for which the F-test of analysis of variance is insensitive to violation of normality assumption. Atiqullah (1962 Atiquallah, M. (1962). The estimation of residual variance in quadratically balanced least-squares problems and the robustness of the F-test. Biometrika 49: 83–91.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proved that the F-test for treatments adjusting for blocks in the intra-block analysis of a balanced incomplete block design is robust against non-normality in the observations. Here an attempt has been made to identify other designs robust in this sense. In particular, it is observed that for testing relevant hypothesis, a partially balanced incomplete block design in block design setup, under certain conditions, is robust. Robustness of a balanced treatment incomplete block design and a partially balanced treatment incomplete block design (Biswas, 2012 Biswas, A. (2012). Block designs robust against the presence of an aberration in a treatment-control setup. Commun Statist.Theor Methods 41: 920–933.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), in treatment-control design setup, is also studied. Moreover, a new measure of robustness is introduced for further study. The performance of the F-test in presence of non-normality in the observations for a quadratically balanced design is also examined.     

Multilevel Augmented Pairs Second-Order Response Surface Designs and Their Robustness to Missing Data

Missing observations can occur even in a well-planned experiment. The effect of missing observations can be much more serious when the design is saturated or near saturated. The levels of factor settings that make a design more robust to missing observations are of great importance in the sense that the loss for missing observations becomes minimum. In this study, new augmented pairs minimax loss designs are constructed, which are more robust to one missing design point than the augmented pairs designs presented by Morris (2000 Morris , M. D. ( 2000 ). A class of three-level experimental designs for response surface modeling . Technometrics 42 : 111 – 121 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). New designs are compared with augmented pairs designs, central composite designs, and small composite designs under generalized scaled standard deviations. The model used is also studied for the regression coefficient estimates.     

The estimation for Lévy processes in high frequency data

In this article, a generalized Lévy model is proposed and its parameters are estimated in high-frequency data settings. An infinitesimal generator of Lévy processes is used to study the asymptotic properties of the drift and volatility estimators. They are consistent asymptotically and are independent of other parameters making them better than those in Chen et al. (2010 Chen, S. X., Delaigle, A., Hall, P. (2010). Nonparametric estimation for a class of Lévy processes. Journal of Econometrics 157:257–271.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The estimators proposed here also have fast convergence rates and are simple to implement.     

Large Deviations for Sums of Independent Non Identically Distributed Random Variables

This article considers large deviation results for sums of independent non identically distributed random variables, generalizing the result of Petrov (1968 Petrov , V. V. ( 1968 ). Asymptotic behavior of probabilities of large deviations . Theor. Probab. Appl. 13 : 408 – 420 . [Google Scholar]) by using a weaker and more natural condition on bounds of the cumulant generating functions of the sequence of random variables.     

Computation of Sharp Bounds on the Expected Value of a Supermodular Function of Risks with Given Marginals

We show that the rearrangement algorithm (RA) introduced in Puccetti and Rüschendorf (2012 Puccetti, G., Rüschendorf, L. (2012). Computation of sharp bounds on the distribution of a function of dependent risks. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 236(7):1833–1840.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to compute distributional bounds can be used also to compute sharp lower and upper bounds on the expected value of a supermodular function of d random variables having fixed marginal distributions. Compared to the analytical methods existing in the literature the algorithm is widely applicable, more easily obtained and gives insight into the dependence structures attaining the bounds.     

The modulus of continuity theorem for G-Brownian motion

In this paper, our aim is to obtain the modulus of continuity theorem for G-Brownian motion. It turns out that our theorem is a natural extension of the classical result obtained by Lévy (1937 Lévy, P. (1937). Théorie de laddition des variables aléatories indépendantes. Paris: Gauthier-Villars. [Google Scholar]).     

A Bottom-Up Dynamic Model of Portfolio Credit Risk with Stochastic Intensities and Random Recoveries

In Bielecki et al. (2014a Bielecki , T. R. , Cousin , A. , Crépey , S. , Herbertsson , A. ( 2014a ). Dynamic hedging of portfolio credit risk in a markov copula model . J. Optimiz. Theor. Applic . doi: DOI 10.1007/s10957-013-0318-4 (forthcoming) .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), the authors introduced a Markov copula model of portfolio credit risk where pricing and hedging can be done in a sound theoretical and practical way. Further theoretical backgrounds and practical details are developed in Bielecki et al. (2014b Bielecki , T. R. , Cousin , A. , Crépey , S. , Herbertsson , A. ( 2014b ). A bottom-up dynamic model of portfolio credit risk - Part I: Markov copula perspective . In: Recent Adv. Fin. Eng. 2012 , World Scientific (preprint version available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1844574) . [Google Scholar],c) where numerical illustrations assumed deterministic intensities and constant recoveries. In the present paper, we show how to incorporate stochastic default intensities and random recoveries in the bottom-up modeling framework of Bielecki et al. (2014a Bielecki , T. R. , Cousin , A. , Crépey , S. , Herbertsson , A. ( 2014a ). Dynamic hedging of portfolio credit risk in a markov copula model . J. Optimiz. Theor. Applic . doi: DOI 10.1007/s10957-013-0318-4 (forthcoming) .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) while preserving numerical tractability. These two features are of primary importance for applications like CVA computations on credit derivatives (Assefa et al., 2011 Assefa , S. , Bielecki , T. R. , Crépey , S. , Jeanblanc , M. ( 2011 ). CVA computation for counterparty risk assessment in credit portfolios . In: Bielecki , T.R. , Brigo , D. , Patras , F. , Eds., Credit Risk Frontiers . Hoboken : Wiley/Bloomberg-Press . [Google Scholar]; Bielecki et al., 2012 Bielecki , T. R. , Crépey , S. , Jeanblanc , M. , Zargari , B. ( 2012 ). Valuation and Hedging of CDS counterparty exposure in a markov copula model . Int. J. Theoret. Appl. Fin. 15 ( 1 ): 1250004 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), as CVA is sensitive to the stochastic nature of credit spreads and random recoveries allow to achieve satisfactory calibration even for “badly behaved” data sets. This article is thus a complement to Bielecki et al. (2014a Bielecki , T. R. , Cousin , A. , Crépey , S. , Herbertsson , A. ( 2014a ). Dynamic hedging of portfolio credit risk in a markov copula model . J. Optimiz. Theor. Applic . doi: DOI 10.1007/s10957-013-0318-4 (forthcoming) .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Bielecki et al. (2014b Bielecki , T. R. , Cousin , A. , Crépey , S. , Herbertsson , A. ( 2014b ). A bottom-up dynamic model of portfolio credit risk - Part I: Markov copula perspective . In: Recent Adv. Fin. Eng. 2012 , World Scientific (preprint version available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1844574) . [Google Scholar]) and Bielecki et al. (2014c Bielecki , T. R. , Cousin , A. , Crépey , S. , Herbertsson , A. ( 2014c ). A bottom-up dynamic model of portfolio credit risk - Part II: Common-shock interpretation, calibration and hedging issues . Recent Adv. Fin. Eng. 2012 , World Scientific (preprint version available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2245130) . [Google Scholar]).