首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 531 毫秒
1.
Sanaullah et al. (2014 Sanaullah, A., Ali, H.M., Noor ul Amin, M., Hanif, M. (2014). Generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling. Appl. Math. Comput. 226:541547.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) have suggested generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase sampling scheme for estimating the finite population mean. However, the bias and mean square error (MSE) expressions presented in that work need some corrections, and consequently the study based on efficiency comparison also requires corrections. In this article, we revisit Sanaullah et al. (2014 Sanaullah, A., Ali, H.M., Noor ul Amin, M., Hanif, M. (2014). Generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling. Appl. Math. Comput. 226:541547.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) estimator and provide the correct bias and MSE expressions of their estimator. We also propose an estimator which is more efficient than several competing estimators including the classes of estimators in Sanaullah et al. (2014 Sanaullah, A., Ali, H.M., Noor ul Amin, M., Hanif, M. (2014). Generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling. Appl. Math. Comput. 226:541547.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). Three real datasets are used for efficiency comparisons.  相似文献   

2.
The construction of some wider families of continuous distributions obtained recently has attracted applied statisticians due to the analytical facilities available for easy computation of special functions in programming software. We study some general mathematical properties of the log-gamma-generated (LGG) family defined by Amini, MirMostafaee, and Ahmadi (2014 Amini, M., S. M. T. K. MirMostafaee, and J. Ahmadi. 2014. Log-gamma-generated families of distributions. Statistics 48:91332.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). It generalizes the gamma-generated class pioneered by Risti? and Balakrishnan (2012 Risti?, M. M., and N. Balakrishnan. 2012. The gamma exponentiated exponential distribution. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 82:1191206.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). We present some of its special models and derive explicit expressions for the ordinary and incomplete moments, generating and quantile functions, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, Shannon entropy, Rényi entropy, reliability, and order statistics. Models in this family are compared with nested and non nested models. Further, we propose and study a new LGG family regression model. We demonstrate that the new regression model can be applied to censored data since it represents a parametric family of models and therefore can be used more effectively in the analysis of survival data. We prove that the proposed models can provide consistently better fits in some applications to real data sets.  相似文献   

3.
Techniques used in variability assessment are subsequently used to draw conclusions regarding the “spread”/uniformity of data curves. Due to the limitations of these techniques, they are not adequate for circumstances where data manifest with multiple peaks. Examples of these manifestations (in three-dimensional space) include under-foot pressure distributions recorded for different types of footwear (Becerro-de-Bengoa-Vallejo et al., 2014 Biau, D.J. (2011). In brief: Standard deviation and standard error. Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research 469(9):26612664.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; Cibulka et al., 1994 Cibulka, M.T., Sinacore, D.R., Mueller, M.J. (1994). Shin splints and forefoot contact running: A case report. Journal of Orthopaedic &; Sports Physical Therapy 20(2):98102.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; Davies et al., 2003 Davies, M.B., Betts, R.P., Scott, I.R. (2003). Optical plantar pressure analysis following internal fixation for displaced intra-articular os calcis fractures. Foot &; Ankle International 24(11):851856.[PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), surface textures and interfaces designed to impact friction, and and and molecular surface structures such as viral epitopes (Torras and Garcia-Valls, 2004 Torras, C., Garcia-Valls, R. (2004). Quantification of membrane morphology by interpretation of scanning electron microscopy images. Journal of Membrane Science 233(1–2):119127.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; Pacejka, 1997; Fustaffson, 1997). This article proposes a technique for generating a single variable – Λ that will quantify the uniformity of such surfaces. We define and validate this technique using several mathematical and graphical models.  相似文献   

4.
Two-period crossover design is one of the commonly used designs in clinical trials. But, the estimation of treatment effect is complicated by the possible presence of carryover effect. It is known that ignoring the carryover effect when it exists can lead to poor estimates of the treatment effect. The classical approach by Grizzle (1965 Grizzle, J.E. (1965). The two-period change-over design and its use in clinical trials. Biometrics 21:467480. See Grizzle (1974) for corrections.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) consists of two stages. First, a preliminary test is conducted on carryover effect. If the carryover effect is significant, analysis is based only on data from period one; otherwise, analysis is based on data from both periods. A Bayesian approach with improper priors was proposed by Grieve (1985 Grieve, A.P. (1985). A Bayesian analysis of the two-period crossover design for clinical trials. Biometrics 41:979990.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) which uses a mixture of two models: a model with carryover effect and another without. The indeterminacy of the Bayes factor due to the arbitrary constant in the improper prior was addressed by assigning a minimally discriminatory value to the constant. In this article, we present an objective Bayesian estimation approach to the two-period crossover design which is also based on a mixture model, but using the commonly recommended Zellner–Siow g-prior. We provide simulation studies and a real data example and compare the numerical results with Grizzle (1965 Grizzle, J.E. (1965). The two-period change-over design and its use in clinical trials. Biometrics 21:467480. See Grizzle (1974) for corrections.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar])’s and Grieve (1985 Grieve, A.P. (1985). A Bayesian analysis of the two-period crossover design for clinical trials. Biometrics 41:979990.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar])’s approaches.  相似文献   

5.
This paper treats the problem of stochastic comparisons for the extreme order statistics arising from heterogeneous beta distributions. Some sufficient conditions involved in majorization-type partial orders are provided for comparing the extreme order statistics in the sense of various magnitude orderings including the likelihood ratio order, the reversed hazard rate order, the usual stochastic order, and the usual multivariate stochastic order. The results established here strengthen and extend those including Kochar and Xu (2007 Kochar, S.C., Xu, M. (2007). Stochastic comparisons of parallel systems when components have proportional hazard rates. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 21:597609.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Mao and Hu (2010 Mao, T., Hu, T. (2010). Equivalent characterizations on orderings of order statistics and sample ranges. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 24:245262.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Balakrishnan et al. (2014 Balakrishnan, N., Barmalzan, G., Haidari, A. (2014). On usual multivariate stochastic ordering of order statistics from heterogeneous beta variables. J. Multivariate Anal. 127:147150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), and Torrado (2015 Torrado, N. (2015). On magnitude orderings between smallest order statistics from heterogeneous beta distributions. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 426:824838.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). A real application in system assembly and some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.  相似文献   

6.
The Hosmer–Lemeshow test is a widely used method for evaluating the goodness of fit of logistic regression models. But its power is much influenced by the sample size, like other chi-square tests. Paul, Pennell, and Lemeshow (2013 Paul, P., M. L. Pennell, and S. Lemeshow. 2013. Standardizing the power of the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test in large data sets. Statistics in Medicine 32:6780.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) considered using a large number of groups for large data sets to standardize the power. But simulations show that their method performs poorly for some models. In addition, it does not work when the sample size is larger than 25,000. In the present paper, we propose a modified Hosmer–Lemeshow test that is based on estimation and standardization of the distribution parameter of the Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic. We provide a mathematical derivation for obtaining the critical value and power of our test. Through simulations, we can see that our method satisfactorily standardizes the power of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. It is especially recommendable for enough large data sets, as the power is rather stable. A bank marketing data set is also analyzed for comparison with existing methods.  相似文献   

7.
The complication in analyzing tumor data is that the tumors detected in a screening program tend to be slowly progressive tumors, which is the so-called left-truncated sampling that is inherent in screening studies. Under the assumption that all subjects have the same tumor growth function, Ghosh (2008 Ghosh, D. (2008). Proportional hazards regression for cancer studies. Biometrics 64:141148.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) developed estimation procedures for the Cox proportional hazards model. Shen (2011a Shen, P.-S. (2011a). Proportional hazards regression for cancer screening data. J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 18:367377.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) demonstrated that Ghosh (2008 Ghosh, D. (2008). Proportional hazards regression for cancer studies. Biometrics 64:141148.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar])'s approach can be extended to the case when each subject has a specific growth function. In this article, under linear transformation model, we present a general framework to the analysis of data from cancer screening studies. We developed estimation procedures under linear transformation model, which includes Cox's model as a special case. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the proposed estimators.  相似文献   

8.
This article proposes new symmetric and asymmetric distributions applying methods analogous as the ones in Kim (2005 Kim, H.J. (2005). On a class of two-piece skew-normal distributions. Statist.: J. Theoret. Appl. Statist. 39:537553.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Arnold et al. (2009 Arnold, B.C., H.W. Gómez, and H.S. Salinas. (2009). On multiple constraint skewed models. Statist. J. Theoret. Appl. Statist. 43: 279293.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) to the exponentiated normal distribution studied in Durrans (1992 Durrans, S.R. (1992). Distributions of fractional order statistics in hydrology. Water Resour. Res. 28:16491655.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), that we call the power-normal (PN) distribution. The proposed bimodal extension, the main focus of the paper, is called the bimodal power-normal model and is denoted by BPN(α) model, where α is the asymmetry parameter. The authors give some properties including moments and maximum likelihood estimation. Two important features of the model proposed is that its normalizing constant has closed and simple form and that the Fisher information matrix is nonsingular, guaranteeing large sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, simulation studies and real applications reveal that the proposed model can perform well in both situations.  相似文献   

9.
Recently, conditional Renyi’s divergence of order α and Kerridge’s inaccuracy measures are studied by Navarro et al. (2014 Navarro, J., Sunoj, S.M., Linu, M.N. (2014). Characterizations of bivariate models using some dynamic conditional information divergence measures. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 43:19391948.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). In the present article, a generalized dynamic conditional Kerridge’s inaccuracy measure is introduced, which can be represented as the sum of conditional Renyi’s divergence and Renyi’s entropy. Some useful bounds are obtained using the concept of likelihood ratio order. The results are extended to weighted distributions. Sufficient conditions are obtained for the monotonicity of the proposed measure. Characterizations for bivariate exponential conditional distribution are presented based on the proposed measure.  相似文献   

10.
Recently, Koyuncu et al. (2013 Koyuncu, N., Gupta, S., Sousa, R. (2014). Exponential type estimators of the mean of a sensitive variable in the presence of non-sensitive auxiliary information. Communications in Statistics- Simulation and Computation[PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) proposed an exponential type estimator to improve the efficiency of mean estimator based on randomized response technique. In this article, we propose an improved exponential type estimator which is more efficient than the Koyuncu et al. (2013 Koyuncu, N., Gupta, S., Sousa, R. (2014). Exponential type estimators of the mean of a sensitive variable in the presence of non-sensitive auxiliary information. Communications in Statistics- Simulation and Computation[PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) estimator, which in turn was shown to be more efficient than the usual mean estimator, ratio estimator, regression estimator, and the Gupta et al. (2012 Gupta, S., Shabbir, J., Sousa, R., Corte-Real, P. (2012). Regression estimation of the mean of a sensitive variable in the presence of auxiliary information. Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods 41:23942404.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) estimator. Under simple random sampling without replacement (SRSWOR) scheme, bias and mean square error expressions for the proposed estimator are obtained up to first order of approximation and comparisons are made with the Koyuncu et al. (2013 Koyuncu, N., Gupta, S., Sousa, R. (2014). Exponential type estimators of the mean of a sensitive variable in the presence of non-sensitive auxiliary information. Communications in Statistics- Simulation and Computation[PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) estimator. A simulation study is used to observe the performances of these two estimators. Theoretical findings are also supported by a numerical example with real data. We also show how to, extend the proposed estimator to the case when more than one auxiliary variable is available.  相似文献   

11.
This article recasts the optimal allocations of coverage limits for two independent random losses. Under some regularity conditions on the two concerned probability density functions, we build the sufficient and necessary condition for the existence of the optimal allocation of coverage limits, and derive the optimal allocation whenever they do exist. The results supplement Lu and Meng (2011 Lu, Z.Y., Meng, L.L. (2011). Stochastic comparisons for allocations of upper limits and deductibles with applications. Insur.: Math. Econ. 48:338343.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], Proposition 5.2) and Hu and Wang (2014 Hu, S., Wang, R. (2014). Stochastic comparisons and optimal allocation for policy limits and deductibles. Commun. Stat. – Theory Methods 43:151164.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], Theorem 5.1).  相似文献   

12.
Repeated measurement designs are widely used in medicine, pharmacology, animal sciences, and psychology. In this paper the works of Iqbal and Tahir (2009 Iqbal, I., and M. H. Tahir. 2009. Circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 38:368696.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Iqbal, Tahir, and Ghazali (2010 Iqbal, I., M. H. Tahir, and S. S. A. Ghazali. 2010. Circular first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 39:22840.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) are generalized for the construction of circular-balanced and circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs through the method of cyclic shifts for three periods.  相似文献   

13.
The generalized inverse Weibull distribution is a newlife time probability distribution which can be used to model a variety of failure characteristics. It has several desirable properties and nice physical interpretations which enable them to be used frequently. In this article, we present a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test for an accelerated failure time (AFT) model with generalized inverse Weibull distribution (GIW) as the baseline distribution, in both of complete and censored data. This test is based on a modification of the NRR (Nikulin-Rao-Robson) statistic Y2, proposed by Bagdonavicius and Nikulin (2011 Bagdonavicius, V., Nikulin, M. (2011). Chi-squared tests for general composite hypotheses from censored samples. Comptes Rendus Mathematique, Ser. I, 349(3–4): 219223.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), for censored data. Two applications of real data are given to illustrate the potentiality of the proposed test.  相似文献   

14.
In this article, we establish the complete moment convergence of a moving-average process generated by a class of random variables satisfying the Rosenthal-type maximal inequality and the week mean dominating condition. On the one hand, we give the correct proof for the case p = 1 in Ko (2015 Ko, M.H. (2015). Complete moment convergence of moving average process generated by a class of random variables. J. Inequalities Appl. 2015(1):19. Article ID 225.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]); on the other hand, we also consider the case αp = 1 which was not considered in Ko (2015 Ko, M.H. (2015). Complete moment convergence of moving average process generated by a class of random variables. J. Inequalities Appl. 2015(1):19. Article ID 225.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). The results obtained in this article generalize some corresponding ones for some dependent sequences.  相似文献   

15.
In analogy with the weighted Shannon entropy proposed by Belis and Guiasu (1968 Belis, M., Guiasu, S. (1968). A quantitative-qualitative measure of information in cybernetic systems. IEEE Trans. Inf. Th. IT-4:593594.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Guiasu (1986 Guiasu, S. (1986). Grouping data by using the weighted entropy. J. Stat. Plann. Inference 15:6369.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), we introduce a new information measure called weighted cumulative residual entropy (WCRE). This is based on the cumulative residual entropy (CRE), which is introduced by Rao et al. (2004 Rao, M., Chen, Y., Vemuri, B.C., Wang, F. (2004). Cumulative residual entropy: a new measure of information. IEEE Trans. Info. Theory 50(6):12201228.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). This new information measure is “length-biased” shift dependent that assigns larger weights to larger values of random variable. The properties of WCRE and a formula relating WCRE and weighted Shannon entropy are given. Related studies of reliability theory is covered. Our results include inequalities and various bounds to the WCRE. Conditional WCRE and some of its properties are discussed. The empirical WCRE is proposed to estimate this new information measure. Finally, strong consistency and central limit theorem are provided.  相似文献   

16.
The probability matching prior for linear functions of Poisson parameters is derived. A comparison is made between the confidence intervals obtained by Stamey and Hamilton (2006 Stamey, J., Hamilton, C. (2006). A note on confidence intervals for a linear function of Poisson rates. Commun. Statist. Simul. &; Computat. 35(4):849856.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), and the intervals derived by us when using the Jeffreys’ and probability matching priors. The intervals obtained from the Jeffreys’ prior are in some cases fiducial intervals (Krishnamoorthy and Lee, 2010 Krishnamoorthy, K., Lee, M. (2010). Inference for functions of parameters in discrete distributions based on fiducial approach: Binomial and Poisson cases. J. Statist. Plann. Infere. 140(5):11821192.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). A weighted Monte Carlo method is used for the probability matching prior. The power and size of the test, using Bayesian methods, is compared to tests used by Krishnamoorthy and Thomson (2004 Krishnamoorthy, K., Thomson, J. (2004). A more powerful test for comparing two Poisson means. J. Statist. Plann. Infere. 119(1):2335.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). The Jeffreys’, probability matching and two other priors are used.  相似文献   

17.
In this article, assuming that the error terms follow a multivariate t distribution,we derive the exact formulae forthe moments of the heterogeneous preliminary test (HPT) estimator proposed by Xu (2012b Xu, H. (2012b). MSE performance and minimax regret significance points for a HPT estimator when each individual regression coefficient is estimated. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 42:21522164.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). We also execute the numerical evaluation to investigate the mean squared error (MSE) performance of the HPT estimator and compare it with those of the feasible ridge regression (FRR) estimator and the usual ordinary least squared (OLS) estimator. Further, we derive the optimal critical values of the preliminary F test for the HPT estimator, using the minimax regret function proposed by Sawa and Hiromatsu (1973 Sawa, T., Hiromatsu, T. (1973). Minimax regret significance points for a preliminary test in regression analysis. Econometrica 41:10931101.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). Our results show that (1) the optimal significance level (α*) increases as the degrees of freedom of multivariate t distribution (ν0) increases; (2) when ν0 ? 10, the value of α* is close to that in the normal error case.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper, the focus is on sequential analysis of multivariate financial time series with heavy tails. The mean vector and the covariance matrix of multivariate non linear models are simultaneously monitored by modifying conventional control charts to identify structural changes in the data. The considered target process is a constant conditional correlation model (cf. Bollerslev, 1990 Bollerslev, T. (1990). Modeling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: A multivariate generalized ARCH model. Rev. Econ. Stat. 72:498505.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), an extended constant conditional correlation model (cf. He and Teräsvirta, 2004 He, C., Teräsvirta, T. (2004). An extended constant conditional correlation GARCH model and its fourth-moment structure. Economet. Theory 20:904926.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), a dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Engle, 2002 Engle, R.F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate GARCH models. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 20(3):339350.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), or a generalized dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Capiello et al., 2006 Capiello, L., Engle, R., Sheppard, K. (2006). Asymmetric correlations in the dynamics of global equity and bond returns. J. Financial Economet. 4(4):537572.[Crossref] [Google Scholar]). For statistical surveillance we use control charts based on residuals. Further, the procedures are constructed for t-distribution. The detection speed of these charts is compared via Monte Carlo simulation. In the empirical study, the procedure with the best performance is applied to log-returns of the stock market indices FTSE and CAC.  相似文献   

19.
Since the seminal paper of Ghirardato (1997 Ghirardato, P. 1997. On the independence for non-additive measures, with a Fubini theorem. Journal of Economic Theory 73:26191.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), it is known that Fubini theorem for non additive measures can be available only for functions as “slice-comonotonic” in the framework of product algebra. Later, inspired by Ghirardato (1997 Ghirardato, P. 1997. On the independence for non-additive measures, with a Fubini theorem. Journal of Economic Theory 73:26191.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Chateauneuf and Lefort (2008 Chateauneuf, A., and J. P. Lefort. 2008. Some Fubini theorems on product σ-algebras for non-additive measures. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 48:68696.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) obtained some Fubini theorems for non additive measures in the framework of product σ-algebra. In this article, we study Fubini theorem for non additive measures in the framework of g-expectation. We give some different assumptions that provide Fubini theorem in the framework of g-expectation.  相似文献   

20.
This study considers efficient mixture designs for the approximation of the response surface of a quantile regression model, which is a second degree polynomial, by a first degree polynomial in the proportions of q components. Instead of least squares estimation in the traditional regression analysis, the objective function in quantile regression models is a weighted sum of absolute deviations and the least absolute deviations (LAD) estimation technique should be used (Bassett and Koenker, 1982 Bassett, G., Koenker, R. (1982). An empirical quantile function for linear models with i.i.d. errors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77:407415.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; Koenker and Bassett, 1978 Koenker, R., Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica 46(1):3350.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). Therefore, the standard optimal mixture designs like the D-optimal or A-optimal mixture designs for the least squared estimation are not appropriate. This study explores mixture designs that minimize the bias between the approximated 1st-degree polynomial and a 2nd-degree polynomial response surfaces by the LAD estimation. In contrast to the standard optimal mixture designs for the least squared estimation, the efficient designs might contain elementary centroid design points of degrees higher than two. An example of a portfolio with five assets is given to illustrate the proposed efficient mixture designs in determining the marginal contribution of risks by individual assets in the portfolio.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号