Analyzing multiple vector autoregressions through matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices

Abstract

This article proposes a new approach to analyze multiple vector autoregressive (VAR) models that render us a newly constructed matrix autoregressive (MtAR) model based on a matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices. The MtAR is a generalization of VAR models where the two covariance matrices allow the extension of MtAR to a structural MtAR analysis. The proposed MtAR can also incorporate different lag orders across VAR systems that provide more flexibility to the model. The estimation results from a simulation study and an empirical study on macroeconomic application show favorable performance of our proposed models and method.     

Identification of arma models with non-gaussian innovations

The problem of modelling time series driven by non-Gaussian innovation has been considered recently by Li and McLeod (1988). In this paper we have discussed the problem of identification of ARMA models with non-Gaussian innovations. Simulation experiments are used to study the applicability of theoretical results.     

Distributional properties of simpson's index of diversity

Closed expressions for the first four moments of Simpson's index of diversity are derived using techniaues suggested by Haldane (1937). As the samole size increases the behavior of the skewness and kurtosis is studied for several Dopulations with varying degrees of diversity, If the populationproportions decrease accordinq to a geometric progression, graphs of β₁and β₂ indicate that convergence to normality in general is more rapid for populations which are less diverse.     

Markov regime switching in mean and in fractional integration parameter

We propose a specific general Markov-regime switching estimation both in the long memory parameter d and the mean of a time series. We employ Viterbi algorithm that combines the Viterbi procedures in two state Markov-switching parameter estimation. It is well-known that existence of mean break and long memory in time series can be easily confused with each other in most cases. Thus, we aim at observing the deviation and interaction of mean and d estimates for different cases. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the finite sample performance of the proposed algorithm for a simple mixture model of Markov-switching mean and d changes with respect to the fractional integrating parameters and the mean values for the two regimes.     

Spectral analysis of Markov switching GARCH models with statistical inference

We derive matrix expressions in closed form for the autocovariance function and the spectral density of Markov switching GARCH models and their powers. For this, we apply the Riesz–Fischer theorem which defines the spectral representation as the Fourier transform of the autocovariance function. Under suitable assumptions, we prove that the sample estimator of the spectral density is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Further statistical implications in terms of order identification and parameter estimation are discussed. A simulation study confirms the validity of the asymptotic properties. These methods are also well suited for financial market applications, and in particular for the analysis of time series in the frequency domain, as shown in some proposed real-world examples.     

A transitional Markov switching autoregressive model

ABSTRACT

This paper is concerned with properties of a transitional Markov switching autoregressive (TMSAR) model, together with its maximum-likelihood estimation and inference. We extend existing MSAR models by allowing dependence of AR parameters on hidden states at time points prior to the current time t. A stationary solution is given and expressions for the theoretical autocovariance function are derived. Two time series are analyzed and the new model outperforms two existing MSAR models in terms of maximized log-likelihood, residual correlations, and one-step-ahead forecasting performance. The new model also gives more regime changes in agreement with real events.     

Markov switching model of nonlinear autoregressive with skew-symmetric innovations

We consider data generating structures which can be represented as a Markov switching of nonlinear autoregressive model with considering skew-symmetric innovations such that switching between the states is controlled by a hidden Markov chain. We propose semi-parametric estimators for the nonlinear functions of the proposed model based on a maximum likelihood (ML) approach and study sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity of the process. Also, an Expectation-Maximization type optimization for obtaining the ML estimators are presented. A simulation study and a real world application are also performed to illustrate and evaluate the proposed methodology.     

Applications of a new power normal family

The main purpose of this paper is to give an algorithm to attain joint normality of non-normal multivariate observations through a new power normal family introduced by the author (Isogai, 1999). The algorithm tries to transform each marginal variable simultaneously to joint normality, but due to a large number of parameters it repeats a maximization process with respect to the conditional normal density of one transformed variable given the other transformed variables. A non-normal data set is used to examine performance of the algorithm, and the degree of achievement of joint normality is evaluated by measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis. Besides the above topic, making use of properties of our power normal family, we discuss not only a normal approximation formula of non-central F distributions in the frame of regression analysis but also some decomposition formulas of a power parameter, which appear in a Wilson-Hilferty power transformation setting.     

Multistep ahead forecasting of vector time series

This article develops the theory of multistep ahead forecasting for vector time series that exhibit temporal nonstationarity and co-integration. We treat the case of a semi-infinite past by developing the forecast filters and the forecast error filters explicitly. We also provide formulas for forecasting from a finite data sample. This latter application can be accomplished by using large matrices, which remains practicable when the total sample size is moderate. Expressions for the mean square error of forecasts are also derived and can be implemented readily. The flexibility and generality of these formulas are illustrated by four diverse applications: forecasting euro area macroeconomic aggregates; backcasting fertility rates by racial category; forecasting long memory inflation data; and forecasting regional housing starts using a seasonally co-integrated model.     

Explicit formulas for the cumulants and the vector-valued odd moments of the multivariate linearly skewed elliptical distributions

In this letter explicit expressions are derived for the cumulants and the vector-valued odd moments of the multivariate linearly skewed elliptical family of distributions. The general calculations of such moments are described by multivariate integrals which complicate the calculations. We show how such multivariate computations can be projected into a univariate framework, which extremely simplifies the computations.     

Higher order moments of order statistics from the Lindley distribution and associated inference

ABSTRACT

The Lindley distribution is an important distribution for analysing the stress–strength reliability models and lifetime data. In many ways, the Lindley distribution is a better model than that based on the exponential distribution. Order statistics arise naturally in many of such applications. In this paper, we derive the exact explicit expressions for the single, double (product), triple and quadruple moments of order statistics from the Lindley distribution. Then, we use these moments to obtain the best linear unbiased estimates (BLUEs) of the location and scale parameters based on Type-II right-censored samples. Next, we use these results to determine the mean, variance, and coefficients of skewness and kurtosis of some certain linear functions of order statistics to develop Edgeworth approximate confidence intervals of the location and scale Lindley parameters. In addition, we carry out some numerical illustrations through Monte Carlo simulations to show the usefulness of the findings. Finally, we apply the findings of the paper to some real data set.     

Bayesian Analysis of the Censored Regression Model with an AEPD Error Term

We present the censored regression model with the error term following the asymmetric exponential power distribution. We propose three Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms: the first one uses the probability integral transformation; the second one uses a combination of the probability integral transformation and random walk draws; while the third one uses random walk draws. Using simulated data we compare the performance of the three MCMC algorithms. Then we compare the posterior means, or Bayes estimates, with maximum likelihood estimates. We estimate the stock option portion of executive compensation as an example of the empirical application.     

Optimal financing and dividend policy with Markovian switching regimes

This work investigates an optimal financing and dividend problem for an insurer whose surplus process is modulated by an observable continuous-time and finite-state Markov chain. We assume that the insurer should never go bankrupt by issuing new equity. The goal of the insurer is to maximize the expected present value of the dividends payout minus the discounted cost of equity issuance. We obtain the optimal policies and explicit expressions for the value functions when the risk reserve process is modeled by both upward jump model and its diffusion approximation. Numerical illustrations of the sensitivities of the model parameters are provided.     

Testing high-dimensional normality based on classical skewness and Kurtosis with a possible small sample size

Abstract

By using the idea of principal component analysis, we propose an approach to applying the classical skewness and kurtosis statistics for detecting univariate normality to testing high-dimensional normality. High-dimensional sample data are projected to the principal component directions on which the classical skewness and kurtosis statistics can be constructed. The theory of spherical distributions is employed to derive the null distributions of the combined statistics constructed from the principal component directions. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the statistics on controlling type I error rates and a simple power comparison with some existing statistics. The effectiveness of the proposed statistics is illustrated by two real-data examples.     

A new class of multivariate skew distributions with applications to bayesian regression models

Abstract: The authors develop a new class of distributions by introducing skewness in multivariate elliptically symmetric distributions. The class, which is obtained by using transformation and conditioning, contains many standard families including the multivariate skew‐normal and t distributions. The authors obtain analytical forms of the densities and study distributional properties. They give practical applications in Bayesian regression models and results on the existence of the posterior distributions and moments under improper priors for the regression coefficients. They illustrate their methods using practical examples.     

On the distribution of rin samples from the mixtures of bivariate normal populations

The distributions of some transformations of the sample correlation coefficient r are studied here, when the parent population is a mixture of two standard bivariate normals. The behavior of these transformations is assessed through the first four standard moments. It is shown that there is a close relationship between the behavior of the transformed variables and the lack of normality as evinced by the 'kurtosis' defined in the bivariate population     

Comparisons of the percentage points of distributions with the same first four moments,chosen from eight different systems of frequency curves

Probability integrals and percentage points of univariate distributions from up to eight different families, having common first four moments are compared. Among interesting observations is the remarkable consistency in the standardized upper and lower 5% points over considerable regions of the √β₁, β₂ plane; also the closeness of agreement between the log-normal and non-central t distributions and the Pearson Type VI and Type IV curves respectively.     

Temporal disaggregation and restricted forecasting of multiple population time series

This article presents some applications of time-series procedures to solve two typical problems that arise when analyzing demographic information in developing countries: (1) unavailability of annual time series of population growth rates (PGRs) and their corresponding population time series and (2) inappropriately defined population growth goals in official population programs. These problems are considered as situations that require combining information of population time series. Firstly, we suggest the use of temporal disaggregation techniques to combine census data with vital statistics information in order to estimate annual PGRs. Secondly, we apply multiple restricted forecasting to combine the official targets on future PGRs with the disaggregated series. Then, we propose a mechanism to evaluate the compatibility of the demographic goals with the annual data. We apply the aforementioned procedures to data of the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone divided by concentric rings and conclude that the targets established in the official program are not feasible. Hence, we derive future PGRs that are both in line with the official targets and with the historical demographic behavior. We conclude that growth population programs should be based on this kind of analysis to be supported empirically. So, through specialized multivariate time-series techniques, we propose to obtain first an optimal estimate of a disaggregate vector of population time series and then, produce restricted forecasts in agreement with some data-based population policies here derived.     

Spectral representation and autocovariance structure of Markov switching DSGE models

Abstract

We investigate the L²-structure of Markov switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (MS DSGE) models and derive conditions for strict and second-order stationarity. Then we determine the autocovariance function of the process driven by a stationary MS DSGE model and give a stable VARMA representation of it. It turns out that the autocovariance structure of the process coincides with that of a standard VARMA. Finally, we propose a method to derive the spectral density in a matrix closed-form of MS DSGE models. Our results relate with the works of Francq and Zakoian, Krolzig, Zhang and Stine. Numerical and empirical illustrations complete the article.