Modified branching process for the reliability analysis of complex systems: Multiple-robot systems

Current design practice is usually to produce a safety system which meets a target level of performance that is deemed acceptable by the regulators. Safety systems are designed to prevent or alleviate the consequences of potentially hazardous events. In many modern industries the failure of such systems can lead to whole system breakdown. In reliability analysis of complex systems involving multiple components, it is assumed that the components have different failure rates with certain probabilities. This leads into extensive computational efforts involved in using the commonly employed generating function (GF) and the recursive algorithm to obtain reliability of systems consisting of a large number of components. Moreover, when the system failure results in fatalities it is desirable for the system to achieve an optimal rather than adequate level of performance given the limitations placed on available resources. This paper concerns with developing a modified branching process joint with generating function to handle reliability evaluation of a multi-robot complex system. The availability of the system is modeled to compute the failure probability of the whole system as a performance measure. The results help decision-makers in maintenance departments to analyze critical components of the system in different time periods to prevent system breakdowns.     

Non parametric hazard estimation with dependent censoring using penalized likelihood and an assumed copula

This article introduces a novel non parametric penalized likelihood hazard estimation when the censoring time is dependent on the failure time for each subject under observation. More specifically, we model this dependence using a copula, and the method of maximum penalized likelihood (MPL) is adopted to estimate the hazard function. We do not consider covariates in this article. The non negatively constrained MPL hazard estimation is obtained using a multiplicative iterative algorithm. The consistency results and the asymptotic properties of the proposed hazard estimator are derived. The simulation studies show that our MPL estimator under dependent censoring with an assumed copula model provides a better accuracy than the MPL estimator under independent censoring if the sign of dependence is correctly specified in the copula function. The proposed method is applied to a real dataset, with a sensitivity analysis performed over various values of correlation between failure and censoring times.     

Profust reliability of linear and circular type F and G systems having two failure criteria under Markov dependency

In this study, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k): F(G) and < n, f, k > : F(G) systems for Markov dependent components are investigated. Having two failure criteria are the common features of these four systems. The usage of both fuzzy approach and two failure criteria in the same system provides us more realistic approach to evaluate the reliability of more complex systems. The component configurations are examined for both linear and circular sequences and the working principle of systems are studied for both F and G systems. Under all these assumptions, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k): F(G) and < n, f, k > : F(G) systems are obtained using the distribution of run statistics. Also a new membership function different from the linear membership function which is generally used in the literature is proposed. Some numerical results which allow the comparison of the systems from various perspectives and various figures for both linear and circular type systems are presented. Some special cases (between Markov – iid assumption, conventional – profust reliability) are also considered.     

Estimation of system reliability

In this paper, we estimate the reliability of a system with k components. The system functions when at least s (1≤s≤k) components survive a common random stress. We assume that the strengths of these k components are subjected to a common stress which is independent of the strengths of these k components. If (X ₁,X ₂,…,X _k ) are strengths of k components subjected to a common stress (Y), then the reliability of the system or system reliability is given byR=P[Y<X _(k−s+1)] whereX _(k−s+1) is (k−s+1)-th order statistic of (X ₁,…,X _k ). We estimate R when (X ₁,…,X _k ) follow an absolutely continuous multivariate exponential (ACMVE) distribution of Hanagal (1993) which is the submodel of Block (1975) and Y follows an independent exponential distribution. We also obtain the asymptotic normal (AN) distribution of the proposed estimator.     

The strong consistency of M-estimates in linear models with extended negatively dependent errors

In this paper, we first establish the strong convergence for weighted sums of extended negatively dependent (END) random variables. Based on the strong convergence and Bernstein inequality, we obtain the strong consistency of M-estimates of the regression parameters in a linear model for END random errors under some mild moment conditions. The results generalize and improve the ones obtained in the literature to the case of END random errors.     

Complete convergence and complete moment convergence for arrays of rowwise negatively superadditive dependent random variables

In this paper, some complete convergence and complete moment convergence results for arrays of rowwise negatively superadditive dependent (NSD, in short) random variables are studied. The obtained theorems not only extend the result of Gan and Chen (2007 Gan, S. X., and P. Y. Chen. 2007. On the limiting behavior of the maximum partial sums for arrays of rowwise NA random variables. Acta Mathematica Scientia. Series B 27 (2):283–90.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the case of NSD random variables, but also improve them.     

Complete moment convergence of weighted sums for arrays of negatively dependent random variables and its applications

For testing goodness-of-fit in a k cell multinomial distribution having very small frequencies, the usual chi-square approximation to the upper tail of the likelihood ratio statistic, G² is not satisfactory. A new adjustment to G² is determined on the basis of analytical investigation in terms of asymptotic bias and variance of the adjusted G² A Monte Carlo simulation is performed for several one-way tables to assess the adjustment of G² in order to obtain a closer approximation to the nomial level of significance.     

Approximate mean squared errors of estimations of reliability in the two-parameter exponential case

Combining the method used i n Chao (1981) and conditional procedure, we extend our previous results for one-parameter exponential to two-parameter case, i .e. we provide simple approximation formulas for the mean squared errors of the maximum likelihood and minimum variance unbiased estimators of reliability of general k-out-of-m systems when the component lifetimes are independent and follow a two-parameter exponential distribution.     

Stochastic comparisons of parallel and series systems of dependent components equipped with starting devices

This paper deals with series and parallel systems of dependent components equipped with starters. We study the hazard rate order, the dispersive order and the usual stochastic order of system lifetimes in the context of component lifetimes having proportional hazard rates. The main results either generalize or extend corresponding conclusions of Joo and Mi (2010) and Da, Ding, and Li (2010).     

The computation of standard normal distribution integral in any required precision based on reliability method

Based on reliability theory, the value of the standard normal distribution integral can be obtained by calculating the probability of the failure domain of the linear performance function. After the sample space is divided into some sub-sample spaces, a number of sub-failure domains are obtained. In the paper, the methods of computing the probabilities of sub-failure domains are discussed. All the formulae and the steps of computing the standard normal distribution integral which meet any required precision are given in the paper. Examples show that it is easy for the method to compute the standard normal distribution integral.     

Simulations on the Jelinski-Moranda model of software reliability; application of some parametric bootstrap methods

In software reliability theory many different models have been proposed and investigated. some of these models intuitively match reality better than others. The properties of certain statistical estimation procedures in connection with these models are also model-dependent. In this paper we investigate how well the maximum likelihood estimation procedure and the parametric bootstrap behave in the case of the very well-known software reliability model suggested by Jelinski and Moranda (1972). For this study we will make use of simulated data.     

Construction of disease risk scoring systems using logistic group lasso: application to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome survey data

We propose to utilize the group lasso algorithm for logistic regression to construct a risk scoring system for predicting disease in swine. This work is motivated by the need to develop a risk scoring system from survey data on risk factor for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), which is a major health, production and financial problem for swine producers in nearly every country. Group lasso provides an attractive solution to this research question because of its ability to achieve group variable selection and stabilize parameter estimates at the same time. We propose to choose the penalty parameter for group lasso through leave-one-out cross-validation, using the criterion of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Survey data for 896 swine breeding herd sites in the USA and Canada completed between March 2005 and March 2009 are used to construct the risk scoring system for predicting PRRS outbreaks in swine. We show that our scoring system for PRRS significantly improves the current scoring system that is based on an expert opinion. We also show that our proposed scoring system is superior in terms of area under the curve to that developed using multiple logistic regression model selected based on variable significance.