Beyond the dollar

The international reserve regime based mainly on the US dollar has served the world well for decades, but it faces an uncertain future as the economic hegemony of the United States is increasingly challenged by the emergence of new economic powers. The regime is flawed fundamentally, moreover, because additions to the supply of the main reserve asset require the United States to run balance-of-payments deficits, which tend to undermine confidence in the dollar. This paper proposes a transformation of the reserve regime that would cause Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) issued by the International Monetary Fund to become the main reserve asset. An orderly transition would be achieved by creating a Substitution Account into which official holders of dollars could deposit them in exchange for SDRs.     

Rule of law and balance of power sustain US dollar preeminence

In the last few decades, and especially since the financial crisis of 2007–2008, uncertainty about the future of the US dollar has been mounting. A broad-based theoretical debate on the decline of the dollar and its consequences has begun. There is a large body of studies that sees the origin of an international money as a market-led process. In this view, because the United States will very soon lose its economic pre-eminence the US dollar will consequently share its international role with other currencies or even be replaced by the renminbi. In this paper we contest this argument, focusing on the conditions that make a fiat money acceptable in international transactions. Trust in a type of money like this needs an institutional framework that guarantees the property rights of currency holders. This framework implies a high level of rule of law domestically and a high level of state capability in the international balance of power. Since at present no other currency fulfils these two requirements at the same time, the dominance of the US dollar as an international money is going to last.     

美欧债务危机应对策略的国际比较

美欧债务危机不断蔓延,其发展状况牵动着全球经济的神经。债务危机爆发后,美欧都采取了紧缩财政、增加市场流动性等措施。但因国情各异,二者在自救实力、政策配合等方面存在明显差异。在美欧债务危机给中国带来新的冲击的严峻局势下,中国应对美欧债务危机的诱发因素和应对策略进行反思,寻找出一条使中国经济稳健发展的道路。     

东北国有企业债务重组及财政政策研究

国有企业债务问题是国有企业改革的重大难题。解决东北国有企业债务问题,财政应采取相应政策:对资产的转移、出售给予相应税收优惠政策、强化公共财政职能,调整和改革现行的国有资产财政管理体制、开征消费增值税和社会保障税、加大对东北地区的财政转移支付力度。     

论国债规模的控制

在现代的经济运行过程当中,国债可不仅仅是弥补财政赤字的一个手段,而且也是政府调控宏观经济的一个重要工具.国债对国民经济产生影响主要是通过两种途径实现的:一是通过政府支出和税收的变化,引起社会商品和服务的供求关系发生变化,对整个经济体系产生作用,可称为财政效应;二是通过国债余额规模和结构变化,引起货币和其他资产供求关系变化,影响经济体系,可称为流动性效应.国债的发行数量会受到很多因素的制约,财政收入总额、财政支出总额、国债还本付息额和财政向银行的借款额等因素十分重要.解决我国国债规模的基本途径有加强对国债的使用监督;建立本息偿付机制;适度发行地方政府债券等,国债作为一种重要的财政政策工具,对加大财政投入,启动内需以拉动,促进经济得以快速发展和持续增长发挥了重大作用.     

Modeling Pension Reforms and Estimating Implicit Pension Debt

The article reviews the major structures of pension schemes, their classification, prerequisites, and the reasons for pension reforms. Special attention is given to implicit pension debt as a tool for estimating future government obligations. The main principles of implicit debt estimation and a short review of its implementation are discussed.     

Sustainability of fiscal deficits, monetary policy, and inflation stabilization: The case of Turkey

There is a widespread consensus among economists that the goal of monetary policy, above all else, should be price stability. This study, by analyzing the Turkish experience in the last 15 years, emphasizes the importance of coordination of fiscal and monetary policies in achieving this aim. It is shown that, despite the rapidly changing financial environment, there are stationary long-run money-income relationships. Moreover, the growth rates of various monetary aggregates have predictive power for future movements in the consumer price index. However, as the Turkish experience made clear, in an economy where there are persistent budget deficits, these properties are not sufficient to conduct a successful monetary policy. The sustainability of fiscal policy is analyzed and rejected. Next, in a medium-term perspective, the levels of sustainable budget deficits compatible with a declining inflation path are calculated by making use of a small macroeconometric model.     

日本公共年金隐性债务规模与解决方案

日本在改革其传统的公共年金制度过程中,面临着偿还巨额隐性债务的问题。从绝对规模来看,日本的隐性债务负担是发达国家中最为沉重的。为解决隐性债务,日本学界提出了渐进偿还和设计政策组合的两种解决方案。研究表明,两种方案可解决隐性债务,但会对不同世代产生不同的福利效果。     

Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy,Greece and Spain

This article attempts to re-evaluate the sustainability of the fiscal deficit as well as the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government spending and revenues for three South-European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Italy, Greece and Spain. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1970 to 2010 and employs various cointegration techniques to account for possible linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. The evidence for all three countries suggests that, allowing for structural break, (i) the fiscal deficits are weakly sustainable in the long-run, (ii) the spend-and-tax hypothesis is supported and (iii) the budgetary adjustment process is asymmetric in Italy and Spain.     

国债投资系统的动力学分析

我国政府采取以国债投资为主导的积极的财政政策,已经取得了明显的效果,但是随着国债投资额的增加,债务负担问题也暴露出来。本文通过对国债投资系统的动态分析,试图从国债投资与民间投资的关系、国债投资的方向及效率等方面阐述国债投资的可持续性问题。     

国债二级市场功能及发展策略研究

风险和成本最小化及宏观经济调控是国债管理的主要目标。文章论述了国债二级市场在现实国债管理目标中所起的作用,指出促进国债二级市场流动性是实现国债管理目标的关键。并且,文章分析了我国国债二级市场在流动性方面存在的问题,提出了以加强流动性管理为目标的促进我国国债二级市场发展的策略建议。     

Are government deficits the prime cause of inflation?

We argue in this article that if government bonds are counted as part of private wealth, government budget deficits are a major cause of inflation, and the method chosen to finance the deficits (e.g., borrowing or monetary expansion) is of secondary importance. To illustrate this point we use a simple portfolio model that is then incorporated into a model of the Australian economy. The full model is specified in continuous time, and it is estimated by the full information maximum likelihood method (FIML) it is then used to simulate a number of fiscal shocks.     

我国国债的挤出效应分析

财政以发行国债方式为扩大政府支出筹集资金,在我国现阶段产生的挤出效应是不明显的,其经济效应是在一定程度上有利于社会总需求的扩张和经济的增长.根据我国现阶段国债对非政府部门投资和消费的挤出效应的特点,笔者进一步分析了其对我国宏观经济调控政策的启示.     

中美债务关系的相互依赖及影响

中美债务关系是在目前美国主导的国际体系中,中美两国基于相互间巨大的经济失衡、贸易—金融循环而形成的规模空前的国家间借贷关系。其形成原因既有国际体系因素,也有中美两国各自国情、政策方面的因素。在债务关系的相互依赖中,由于两国在贸易依存度、贸易收益、对外投资收益、行动能力等方面存在差异,中国的敏感性和脆弱性相对较强。债务问题对中美传统安全关系、人民币汇率和美国贸易战略等领域具有间接影响。对中国而言,债务关系也具有一定的政治战略意义。     

Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies

This paper explores the debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment for 14 emerging economies during the period 1999–2016. The threshold point is identified as the level which, if exceeded, promptly raises sovereign risk to an unsustainable level. As such, we employ a panel threshold analysis to the determination of debt limit, which can serve as a distinctive feature from other studies on fiscal sustainability. Our results demonstrate that non-Latin American economies are considered to be sustainable in the short run, as their debts remain below the threshold bounds of 40–55% of GDP. However, the long-run sustainability risk may emerge from a continuous upward trend in debt paths, implying the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers. It is important to emphasize that fiscal sustainability is far more challenging for most Latin-American economies. This is indicated by their debt accumulation beyond the threshold level of roughly 35% of GDP which is relatively lower than that estimated for the other countries. Indeed, during times of high debt, emerging countries in Latin America also face higher default risk since their sovereign risk premium respond more strongly to debt rise. Their paths toward fiscal sustainability, hence, requires an immediate imposition of strict fiscal discipline to relieve the debt pressure.     

美欧债务危机应对路径的国际比较研究

美欧发达国家政府的债务危机问题已越来越严重,逐渐引起了包括发展中国家在内的世界各国的广泛关注。面对此次危机,美欧各国都相继采取了各种财政、货币政策措施加以应对,由于各国国情各异,采取的措施和取得的效果也不同。通过分析美欧国家债务危机产生的原因,列举美欧应对危机采取的措施,并对其进行分析比较,得出了主权债务危机给中国发展的几点启示。     

美、日地方政府债务管理及其对我国的启示

地方财政困难和债务危机是当前我国财政领域的一个突出问题,通过分析我国当前地方政府债务管理的现状,详细阐释美国和日本的地方政府债务管理特点和方式,认为我国应该从制度上建立健全完善的地方政府债务管理组织架构、债务预算管理模式和债务信息公开披露制度等。     

金融危机背景下武汉市上市民营企业债务风险分析

民营企业是国民经济发展的重要支柱,而上市民企是民营经济及上市企业群体的重要组成部分。通过对金融危机爆发以来武汉市上市民营企业债务风险变化情况的分析,发现民营企业债务风险在危机时期得到不同程度的显现,变动情况与宏观经济走势高度相关。进一步分析发现,民营企业的自身属性以及不完善的市场机制是债务风险形成的重要制度性因素,必须重点加以解决。