Offenders as victims of crime?: an investigation into the relationship between criminal behaviour and victimization

Summary.  We consider the association between victimization and offending behaviour by using data from the Youth Lifestyles Survey. We consider the effect of violent and non-violent offending on the probability of being a victim of violent and non-violent crime and find a positive association between these by using univariate probit estimates. However, taking into account the endog- enous nature of offending and victimization via a bivariate probit model, we find that univariate estimates understate the association. We suggest that policy recommendations should only be informed by the bivariate analysis of the association between offending and victimization.     

Analysing drug abuse with British Crime Survey data: modelling and questionnaire design issues

We use the British Crime Survey (BCS) to analyse the demand for illicit drugs and the implications of drug use for the probability of subsequent unemployment. We demonstrate that the BCS questionnaire has a serious design flaw for this purpose, and we propose some simple modifications. We also develop a modelling technique that is suitable for existing BCS data and apply it to the 1994 and 1996 samples. We find evidence that soft drug use is associated with a greatly increased probability of later hard drug use and that past drug use is associated with increased probabilities of unemployment.     

光绪末年司法统计中的女性犯罪

清朝末年,女性犯罪统计受到了一定的重视,展现了这一时期女性法律地位的变化及社会变迁带给女性的影响。法部第二次统计中,女性犯罪的人数、类别均具有了一定的规模。刑罚以笞杖为主,多数刑罚可以收赎,特别是通过秋朝审等形式,女性犯罪可以得到相应的援免,真正入监的女犯并不多。     

城市化与犯罪率非线性动态关系实证研究

城市化进程改变了中国的社会、经济结构,对犯罪的影响也在发生变化,因此城市化与犯罪率之间存在线性关系的原假设也需要进行调整。利用MSVAR模型方法,对1978—2011年中国犯罪率与城市化率之间的非线性关系进行研究。研究结果表明:1978—2011年中国犯罪率与城市化率之间的非线性关系存在显著的2区制特征,在区制2(城市化快速发展),城市化进程显著地推动了犯罪率的增长;在区制1(城市化适速发展),二者不存在显著的影响关系。     

Local influence in binary regression models,and its correspondence with global influence

We develop local influence diagnostics for a general binary regression model,and apply these methods to case-weight perturbations in four examples. In addition, we illustrate the correspondence between case-deletion diagnostics and local case-weight perturbation slopes and curvatures. We demonstrate that local influence diagnostics can provide a more computationally efficient means for obtaining analogous information to that yielded by case-deletion diagnostics, which can be thought of as global influence perturbations. We also assess the global consistency of patterns of local influence using these data examples.     

Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach

An extended version of the mixed-proportional-hazards model is used to study the determinants of the conditional probability of reemployment of long-term unemployed young persons sampled in the first stage of the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The survey data facilitate an econometric comparison between the effect of different factors on the conditional reemployment probability of those in their first unemployment spell with those who have experienced multiple spells. The article uses Cox's partial-likelihood approach. The empirical results support the hypothesis of lagged-duration dependence in that the length of previous job experience or the duration of previous unemployment is found to be an important determinant of reemployment probability. The results strongly suggest that fitting a common duration model to data from different spells involves a major misspecification.     

Violent crime and incentives in the long-run: evidence from England and Wales

This study uses recent advances in time-series econometrics to investigate the non-stationarity and co-integration properties of violent crime series in England and Wales. In particular, we estimate the long-run impact of economic conditions, beer consumption and various deterrents on different categories of recorded violent crime. The results suggest that a long-run causal model exists for only minor crimes of violence, with beer consumption being a predominant factor.     

The three-parameter two-piece normal family of distributions and its fitting

This note introduces a family of skew and symmetric distributions containing the normal family and indexed by three parameters with clear meanings. Another respect in which this family compares favourably with families like the Pearson family, the Bessel-Gram-Charlier family and the Johnson family is ease of maximum likelihood fitting. Fitting by the method of moments is also considered. Asymptotic distributions of maximum likelihood and moment estimators are worked out. A test of symmetry and normality is suggested.     

Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference,development and communication: some comments

We extend the average derivatives estimator to the case of functionally dependent regressors. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and has a limiting normal distribution. A consistent covariance matrix estimator for the proposed estimator is provided.     

A pivot function and its limiting distribution: applications in goodness of fit and testing hypothesis

ABSTRACT

In this paper, a pivot function which is in terms of the sample and the underlying population distribution is introduced. It is assumed that the population distribution is continuous and strictly increasing on its support. Then, the martingale central limit theorem is applied to prove that limiting distribution of the pivot function is the standard normal. Interestingly, this result provides a unified procedure that can be applied for the goodness of fit, and for the purpose of parametric and nonparametric inferences, for the populations having distribution functions that are continuous and strictly increasing on their supports. The method is fairly simple and can be easily applied.     

现代服务业集聚竞争力评价模型及其应用

在现代服务业集聚竞争力界定的基础上,借助结构方程模型,建立宏观层次的现代服务业集聚竞争力评价模型,以中国2002—2007年28个省域作为研究样本评价中国各区域现代服务业集聚竞争力,清晰认识不同区域现代服务业集聚发展的优势、劣势和差距,找出培育和提升本区域现代服务业竞争力优势最为关键和重要的集聚竞争力要素;并从宏观视角构建现代服务业集聚竞争力统计模型,科学评价中国现代服务业集聚竞争力及其区域差异,从而有针对性地为现代服务业集聚发展的措施提供科学依据。     

资金流量表模型体系的建立与应用

本文在资金流量核算表的基础上,依据“固定产品收入结构假定”、“固定产品支出结构假定”、“固定部门收入结构假定”、“固定部门支出结构假定”四种假定,给出了编制资金流量部门表和资金流量产品表的计算公式,建立了包含4个机构部门模型、2个金融产品模型、4个部门与产品交叉模型的资金流量表乘数模型体系。用中国2011年资金流量表数据进行了实际验证。利用这些模型可以进行部门间、产品间、部门与产品相互之间的资金流量关系分析,可以为制定政策、追踪各种资金关联效应提供方法论的支持。     

The truncated generalized poisson distribution and its estimation

A discrete probability model always gets truncated during the sampling process and the point of truncation depends upon the sample size. Also, the generalized Poisson distribution cannot be used with full justification when the second parameter is negative. To avoid these problems a truncated generalized Poisson distribution is defined and studied. Estimation of its parameters by moments method, maximum likelihood method and a mixed method are considered. Some examples are given to illustrate the effect on the parameters’ estimates when a non-truncated GPD is used instead of a truncated GPD.     

相关系数统计量的功能及其应用探讨——以SPSS为分析工具

相关系数分为简单相关系数、复相关系数和偏相关系数,他们的含义、功能、应用和计算机的实现操作各不相同。尽管相关系数统计量的计算可由多种软件完成,但从操作的简单性、结果的解释性方面看,SPSS、马克威等傻瓜软件应作为首选。选择因变量的影响因素时,我们主张使用偏相关系数,反对使用简单相关系数。     

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u‐shape very similar, but not equal, to a β‐distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new estimator of entropy and its application in testing normality

In this paper, we introduce a new estimator of entropy of a continuous random variable. We compare the proposed estimator with the existing estimators, namely, Vasicek [A test for normality based on sample entropy, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 38 (1976), pp. 54–59], van Es [Estimating functionals related to a density by class of statistics based on spacings, Scand. J. Statist. 19 (1992), pp. 61–72], Correa [A new estimator of entropy, Commun. Statist. Theory and Methods 24 (1995), pp. 2439–2449] and Wieczorkowski-Grzegorewski [Entropy estimators improvements and comparisons, Commun. Statist. Simulation and Computation 28 (1999), pp. 541–567]. We next introduce a new test for normality. By simulation, the powers of the proposed test under various alternatives are compared with normality tests proposed by Vasicek (1976) and Esteban et al. [Monte Carlo comparison of four normality tests using different entropy estimates, Commun. Statist.–Simulation and Computation 30(4) (2001), pp. 761–785].     

A characterization of the dilation order and its applications

LetX andY be two random variables with finite expectationsE X andE Y, respectively. ThenX is said to be smaller thanY in the dilation order ifE[ϕ(X-E X)]≤E[ϕ(Y-E Y)] for any convex functionϕ for which the expectations exist. In this paper we obtain a new characterization of the dilation order. This characterization enables us to give new interpretations to the dilation order, and using them we identify conditions which imply the dilation order. A sample of applications of the new characterization is given. Partially supported by MURST 40% Program on Non-Linear Systems and Applications. Partially supported by “Gruppo Nazionale per l'Analisi Funzionale e sue Applicazioni”—CNR.     

行政机关公务员薪酬公平及其影响因素研究

我国行政机关公务员的薪酬公平问题引发的社会争议较大。本文基于中部三个省份行政机关公务员的一线薪酬调查数据,对我国行政机关公务员薪酬公平及其影响因素进行了实证研究。模型结果显示,职务级别、机构类别与机构级别因素主导了公务员薪酬的内部不公平,企业中“相当人员”的界定标准影响了公务员薪酬外部公平的实现程度,当地人均财政收入与公务员收入的负相关关系则影响了公务员绩效薪酬公平的实现程度。     

基尼加权回归分析：概念、方法及应用

普通最小二乘法是进行回归分析最常用的基本方法,但该方法要求满足若干经典假设,对于小样本或在与收入相关回归分析的参数估计中易受奇异值、高收入群体的影响。本文试图利用基尼加权回归弥补以上不足。基尼加权回归可分为参数方法与非参数方法两类,参数方法基于样本残差的基尼平均差最小原则对参数进行估计;非参数方法则是直接由两点间的斜率加权得到。基尼加权回归分析可以进行参数假设检验并定义拟合优度,其中的假设检验在实际应用中采用Jackknife重抽样方法估计方差。文中提出的样本拓展基尼平均差算法,弥补了现有算法对样本数据只能提供近似计算的不足,极大简化相应的计算公式。利用我国2015年省域截面数据、1994至2015年总量时间序列数据分别讨论入境旅游收入对收入基尼系数的影响,发现使用基尼加权回归的结果不仅符合理论预期,而且可以通过不平等厌恶参数的变化反映入境旅游收入对不同群体收入公平性的影响。