A SILVER LINING? THE CONNECTION BETWEEN GASOLINE PRICES AND OBESITY

I find evidence of a negative association between gasoline prices and body weight using a fixed effects model with several robustness checks. I also show that increases in gas prices are associated with additional walking and a reduction in the frequency with which people eat at restaurants, explaining their effect on weight. My estimates imply that 8% of the rise in obesity between 1979 and 2004 can be attributed to the concurrent drop in real gas prices, and that a permanent $1 increase in gasoline prices would reduce overweight and obesity in the United States by 7% and 10%.     

AFDC AND WORK: MAGNETS OR ANCHORS FOR THE POOR?

Literature analyzing the linkage between welfare and interstate migration is divided. Lack of consistent findings partially depends on sample used and time period when studies are done. Choice of analytical modeling technique has also led to divergent findings. This paper addresses these issues by comparing the effects of welfare and work on poor/nonpoor migration patterns using contemporary structural and household data. Findings offer no support for the welfare magnet hypothesis. Effects of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) differ by poverty status at the place of destination for 1985 and 1990. Householders are migrating to states with lower AFDC benefits. Effects of work also differ by poverty status. For 1985, householders are moving to states with lower unemployment rates. For 1990, householders are moving to states with lower wages. In general, householders remain in states with lower AFDC benefits giving more credence to an anchor effect of higher welfare benefits.     

ARE GOALS AND TOPICS INFLUENCED BY GENDER AND MODALITY IN THE INITIAL MARRIAGE AND FAMILY THERAPY SESSION?

Establishment of a goal is crucial to therapy, but identification of therapeutic goals may be difficult in conjoint therapy because each participant may identify a different problem. We examined the influence of gender on ability to successfully introduce therapeutic topics in marital and family therapy by conducting two studies. The first study evaluates the ability of therapists to identify therapeutic goals that matched goals prioritized by both women and men clients on pretherapy questionnaires. The second study examines the process of initial therapy sessions to see whether gender influences a client's ability to introduce a therapeutic topic. Results suggest that therapeutic topic is influenced by the interaction of gender and treatment modality. Specifically, therapists were better able to match women's pretherapy stated goals in marital therapy than family therapy, men were more successful at introducing topics in family therapy, and women were more successful at introducing topics in marital therapy.     

PEER EFFECTS IN HIGHER EDUCATION: DOES THE FIELD OF STUDY MATTER?

Does the peer effect vary with the field of study? Using data from a middle‐sized public university located in southern Italy and exploiting the random assignment of first‐year students to college accommodation, we find that roommate peer effects for freshmen enrolled in the hard sciences are positive and significantly larger than for freshmen enrolled in the humanities and social sciences. We present a simple theoretical model which suggests that the uncovered differences between fields in the size of the peer effect could plausibly be generated by between‐field variation in labor market returns, which affect optimal student effort. (JEL I21, Z13, J24)     

ARE PROMISES MEANINGLESS IN AN UNCERTAIN CROWDFUNDING ENVIRONMENT?

We use a prominent crowdfunding organization, Kickstarter, to analyze the factors that determine timeliness of delivery of rewards to financial backers. We seek to determine the extent to which promised rewards are delivered on time and to characterize projects that have stronger likelihood of timely delivery of rewards. We find that lateness commonly occurs, yet cannot be explained universally with any given set of project characteristics, implying that the uncertainty of rewards involved with crowdfunding entities is difficult to overcome. (JEL D71, D83, L82)     

WHOSE PREFERENCES ARE REVEALED IN HOURS OF WORK?

It has become orthodox in economics research to interpret the association between hourly earnings and working hours as the expression of the preferences of workers. This convention originated in H. Gregg Lewis' explanation for the decline in hours of work since the nineteenth century. His explanation rested on an explicit resolution of the identification problem inherent in any quantity (hours)–price (wage) relation. For over 40 years, researchers have neglected this identification problem with the result that the findings in the purported “labor supply” literature are of questionable value. (JEL J22, J23, C13)     

DYSPHORIA AND MARITAL DISCORD: ARE DYSPHORIC INDIVIDUALS AT RISK FOR MARITAL MALADJUSTMENT?

The effect of dysphoria on husbands' and wives' later marital adjustment was examined in a sample of 264 white couples about to marry who responded to advertisements. Relationship satisfaction and level of dysphoria were assessed in both spouses prior to marriage, 6 months after marriage, and 18 months after marriage. Premarital dysphoria was associated with later marital dissatisfaction. Husbands' premarital dysphoria, regardless of chronicity, was associated with greater deterioration in both their own and their partners' marital satisfaction. Wives' premarital dysphoria was associated with greater deterioration in marital satisfaction only if it was chronic. Results suggest that premarital dysphoria is associated with subsequent deterioration of marital relationships.     

ANTITRUST ECONOMICS AND CONSUMER PROTECTION ECONOMICS IN POLICY AND LITIGATION: WHY THE DISPARITY?

The lag in the use of microeconomics in consumer protection policy and litigation—as compared with the use of microeconomics in antitrust/competition policy and litigation—has at least three causes: a considerably shorter period of intellectual development; the specific historical origins and culture of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), where this disparity is especially noticeable; and the splintering of consumer protection responsibilities across a very large number of federal and state agencies. This paper will expand on these themes and discuss their implications—including the opportunities for expanded research in the area of consumer protection economics. (JEL B12, B13, B21, D18, L41)     

ARE SUNK COSTS IRRELEVANT? EVIDENCE FROM PLAYING TIME IN THE NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION

We use playing time in the National Basketball Association to investigate whether sunk costs affect decision making. Behavioral economics implies that teams favor players chosen in the lottery and first round of the draft because of the greater financial and psychic commitment to them. Neoclassical economics implies that only current performance matters. We build on previous work in two ways. First, we better capture potential playing time by accounting for time lost to injuries or suspension. Second, we use regression discontinuity to capture changes when a player's draft position crosses thresholds. We find that teams allocate no more time to highly drafted players. (JEL L83, J23, D03)     

WHO (ELSE) BENEFITS FROM ELECTRICITY DEREGULATION? COAL PRICES,NATURAL GAS,AND PRICE DISCRIMINATION

Deregulation of major industries over the past 40 years has produced large efficiency gains. However, distributional effects have been more difficult to assess. In the electricity sector, deregulation has vastly increased information available to market participants through the formation of wholesale markets. We test whether upstream suppliers, specifically railroads that transport coal from mines to power plants, use this information to capture economic rents that would otherwise accrue to electricity generators. We find railroads charge higher markups when rents are larger. This effect is larger for deregulated plants, highlighting an important distributional impact of deregulation. (JEL L11, L51, Q48)     

WHY CANNOT POOR COUNTRIES UTILIZE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE? EXPANSION OF FIRMS AND HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION BY TRAINING

Current growth literature does not explain the inability of poor countries to utilize existing knowledge. This study presents a stylized development model based on firms' expansion through on‐the‐job training. Since trained workers can supervise and train more workers, a development process in which output and productivity increase up to a full utilization of existing technology is generated. Unlike schooling‐based models, which require an assumption regarding a smaller local stock of knowledge, this study relies on the size of the industrial sector and the limited supply of training opportunities, therefore highlights barriers to development, even when technology and capital are available. (JEL O1, O4, J2)     

CAN SCHOOL SPORTS REDUCE RACIAL GAPS IN TRUANCY AND ACHIEVEMENT?

While existing research supports that participation in high‐school athletics is associated with better education and labor‐market outcomes, the mechanisms through which these benefits accrue are not well established. Using individual microdata collected daily, and team‐specific schedules, we retrieve estimates of the causal effect of high‐school athletic participation on absenteeism, suggesting that participation decreases absences, driven primarily by reductions in unexcused absences in boys. There are also strong game‐day effects in truancy, in both boys and girls, with truancy declines on game days more than offset by subsequent absenteeism. Important heterogeneity by race, gender, and family structure may serve to substantially reduce racial gaps in truancy and achievement. (JEL I21, L83)     

THE MAN IN THE TEFLON SUIT?: THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONNECTION, POLITICAL DRAMA, AND POPULAR SUPPORT IN THE REAGAN PRESIDENCY

An examination of public support during the presidency of RonaldReagan reveals a unique pattern. The major features includetwo instances of rapidly declining support followed by historicallyunprecedented and sustained recoveries. The recovery of supportis particularly surprising given that the literature of theearly 1980s emphasizes the irrecoverable erosion of public supportand a resulting "no win" presidency. In this sense, the patternof public support from 1981 to 1987 raises a significant questionabout the "no win" presidency. Does the Reagan case contradictrecent assertions about the inability of modern presidents tomaintain public support or is Reagan an exception that "provesthe rule"? To answer this question, the analysis is divided into five parts.The first examines the literature and shows that there is astriking uniformity in contemporary accounts of Reagan's publicsupport. These explanations discount the importance of conditionsin the environment and emphasize that Reagan's public supportis based upon a mixture of luck, personality, and politicaldrama. Part two defines political drama and examines its usefrom 1981 to 1987. In part three, we develop a methodology forincorporating political drama into a general model of publicsupport for Reagan. Part four estimates the model and uses theresults to assess the relative impact of the economy and politicaldrama on public support for Reagan. These results are used inthe final section to evaluate the specific explanations of Reagan'spublic support and to reflect upon the competing general explanationsfound in the literature.     

MARCH MADNESS? UNDERREACTION TO HOT AND COLD HANDS IN NCAA BASKETBALL

The hot hand bias is the widely documented bias toward overestimation of positive serial correlation in sequential events. We test for the hot hand bias in a novel real‐world context, the seeding of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball tournament teams. That is, we examine whether teams that perform relatively well heading into “March Madness” are seeded too high, and/or teams with poor recent performance are seeded too low. The seeds are determined by a 10‐member committee that only has implicit incentives, but these incentives are still substantial as the committee's decisions are highly scrutinized by the media, fans, and other stakeholders. We find that, contra the hot hand bias, the committee underreacts to signals of momentum heading into the NCAA tournament. Various results indicate this behavior can be attributed to both: (1) inattention to relatively detailed information indicating momentum; and (2) under‐appreciation of the predictive value of this information. Betting markets incorporate this information efficiently, but neglect some additional information that is predictive of winning NCAA tournament games but not of beating the spread. We note that the NCAA tournament has been highly popular and lucrative partly due to the “madness” (high frequency of wins by lower‐seeded teams), which the bias we document contributes to, making the persistence of bias less surprising. (JEL D83, L83)     

TOO MANY MEN? SEX RATIOS AND WOMEN'S PARTNERING BEHAVIOR IN CHINA

The relative numbers of women and men are changing dramatically in China, but the consequences of these imbalanced sex ratios have received little attention. We merge data from the Chinese Health and Family Life Survey with community-level data from Chinese censuses to examine the relationship between cohort- and community-specific sex ratios and women's partnering behavior. Consistent with demographic-opportunity theory and sociocultural theory, we find that high sex ratios (indicating more men relative to women) are associated with an increased likelihood that women marry before age 25. However, high sex ratios are also associated with an increased likelihood that women engage in premarital and extramarital sexual relationships and have had more than one sexual partner, findings consistent with demographic-opportunity theory but inconsistent with sociocultural theory.     

WEAPONS AT SCHOOL: ARE THE PREDICTORS GENERALIZABLE ACROSS CONTEXT?

This study addresses the reasons for school-based weapon carrying across three diverse county-level contexts. Weapon carrying among students at school has been, until very recently, neglected in research. Further, much of the information that is available is non-comparative. Hence, whether the etiology of in-school weapon carrying is generalizable across diverse settings remains largely an unanswered question. The present study moves toward a test of generalizability by comparing student weapon possession and its antecedents in three geographically, economically, and culturally distinct communities in Kentucky. Findings suggest that few differences exist across context regarding the etiology of school-based weapon carrying. Regardless of community context, peer weapon carrying as well as criminal lifestyle are important predictors of adolescents carrying weapons to school.     

ONE UNDER GOD? RELIGIOUS ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND PIONEER LATINO IMMIGRANTS IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

Studies of immigrants and religion tend to focus on established communities, organized as de facto congregations. In the early days of the development of an ethnic community, however, the provision of religious needs is more likely to come from existing local congregations. Using the model of religious economies, I analyze the case of a Baptist mission ministering to Latino immigrants in a rural southern Louisiana town. The pioneer immigrants constitute a change in religious demand, an area not considered by the economic model. They constitute a market niche for local religious entrepreneurs. Given the characteristics of this new community, however, a modified version of the de facto congregation will emerge, where professional clergy is not involved. Relying on participant observation and interviews with the parties involved, I describe the challenges that pioneer immigrant present for a religious entrepreneur.     

RATIONAL HEURISTICS? EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIORS IN EVOLVING ECONOMIES WITH HETEROGENEOUS INTERACTING AGENTS

We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information, coordination hurdles, and structural breaks. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second-best option but rather “rational” responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments. (JEL C63, D8, E32, E6, O4)     

GRIND OR GAMBLE? AN EXPERIMENT ON EFFORT AND SPREAD SEEKING IN CONTESTS

We conduct a contest experiment to study if spread seeking and effort can be managed when participants can invest in increasing both the mean and the spread of an uncertain performance variable. Subjects are treated with different prize schemes and in accordance with theory, we observe higher investments in spread for the winner-take-all scheme. Both types of investments can be controlled with a three-level prize scheme. However, the control management is imperfect and behavior is characterized by inertia. We also explore the correlation between effort and spread across subjects and find that is robustly positive.