Crowding Out or Welfare Promotion? How Foreign Aid Affects Social Expenditures in Latin American Welfare Systems

Foreign assistance constitutes a significant share of government revenue in many low‐ and middle‐income economies and is targeted at poverty reduction and the promotion of social and economic well‐being. This study therefore examines fiscal responses by Latin American welfare states to the inflow of such aid. As a form of external non‐tax revenue, aid can function as a substitution for public welfare expenditure, with a crowding out effect being the likely outcome. This article investigates whether overall aid and aid that is particularly targeted at the social sector substitutes public welfare provision and, if so, whether it also substitutes its function. A time‐series cross‐section analysis of 19 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2008 provides limited support for the assumption that foreign aid payments influence the welfare budget. It is only the health care sector in middle‐income countries which experiences a small decrease in expenditures. Social security and education expenditures are not affected.     

‘A Common Sense of the Times’? Neo‐liberalism and Changing Public Opinion in New Zealand and the UK

Neo‐liberalism represents a significant and enduring shift in the politics shaping social policy. Although frequently ascribed a hegemonic, all‐powerful status that focuses our attention on the coherence found in neo‐liberal policies, this article builds on scholarly work highlighting variegation in the neo‐liberal project across different policy areas, national settings and time periods. Specifically, it employs Peck's and Tickell's (2002) view that neo‐liberalism has gone through multiple phases in response to both external and internal crises as an entry point for studying neo‐liberalism's impact on public support for the welfare state. Drawing upon New Zealand and British attitudinal data, the article argues that public reactions to an early period of retrenchment (‘roll‐back’ neo‐liberalism) differ from those reported in the ‘roll‐out’ or embedding phase of neo‐liberalism implemented by Third Way Labour Governments in both countries. Indeed, continuing public support in many policy areas arguably contributed to the internal crisis that provoked an adaptation to the neo‐liberal project. The article further explores public support for the welfare state following the external crisis provoked by the financial meltdown of 2008–09 asking whether New Zealand and British attitudes showed signs of resisting austerity measures or whether they, instead, indicated a third, ‘roll‐over’ period of neo‐liberalism where the public accepted not only a neo‐liberal economic agenda but also the need for further retrenchment of the welfare state. Conclusions about the politics of social policy at the level of public opinion offer both good and bad news for welfare state advocates.     

The retrenchment of public pension provision in the liberal world of welfare during the age of austerity—and its unexpected reversal, 1980–2017

Pension system adaption during the “age of austerity” since 1980 is expected to vary between industrialized countries broadly in line with their membership of conservative, liberal, or social democratic worlds of welfare. Empirical testing on the liberal world focuses on the later period and differs in its conclusions. This paper is based on a systematic study of the scale, nature, and trajectory of change in six liberal pension systems between 1980 and 2017 using expenditure, economic, demographic, and social rights data. These data are analysed using a framework developed through critical engagement with Pierson's three welfare state change criteria and the welfare state “dependent variable problem.” The paper finds a significant retrenchment of public pension provision in most liberal welfare states after 1980 but largely during the first half of the period. This has been partly reversed in most countries since the mid‐1990s, though the scale of this reversal varies between countries. The recent rise of the state in liberal systems has been noted by some commentators, but to be properly understood, the paper argues, it must be considered in the context of the significant retrenchment, which preceded it. There is a scope especially for research on the broader social context of recent reforms, particularly how middle‐income groups were affected by retrenchment and how recent reforms have mitigated this.     

The Choice Revolution: Privatization of Swedish Welfare Services in the 1990s

During the 1990s, the Swedish welfare state was declared by some to be in a “crisis”, due to both financial strain and loss of political support. Others have argued that the spending cuts and reforms undertaken during this period did slow down the previous increase in social spending, but left the system basically intact. The main argument put forward in this article is that the Swedish welfare state has been and is still undergoing a transforming process whereby it risks losing one of its main characteristics, namely the belief in and institutional support for social egalitarianism. During the 1990s, the public welfare service sector opened up to competing private actors. As a result, the share of private provision grew, both within the health‐care and primary education systems as well as within social service provision. This resulted in a socially segregating dynamic, prompted by the introduction of “consumer choice”. As will be shown in the article, the gradual privatization and market‐orientation of the welfare services undermine previous Swedish notions of a “people's home”, where uniform, high‐quality services are provided by the state to all citizens, regardless of income, social background or cultural orientation.     

Australia's retirement income revolution: a Finnish system "down-under"

Most advanced industrial societies are confronting serious economic recession, and governments are seeking ways to stimulate economic growth and reduce government expenditure. For many countries these problems are compounded by aging populations and demographic changes. There are fewer people in the workforce, and more people in older age groups live longer and have increased expectations for retirement lifestyles. The result has been that many governments are radically transforming their systems of retirement income provision, often causing political, economic and social upheaval and widespread public anxiety. Australia is one country in which there have been huge changes in the retirement income system in the past 5 years. The system has been substantially privatized, and future retirement income will come from statutorily enforced earnings-related individual savings accumulated in decentralized private funds. Australia's new retirement income regime bears extraordinary similarities to the Finnish system of employment-related pensions, yet there was no reference to the Finnish system in the evolution of the new Australian system. There are lessons for Australia and for other countries in the long and successful operation of the Finnish pension system. This article first examines Australia's retirement income system, recent government policy changes and likely implications of these retirement policy changes for the future of Australia's traditional welfare state. Cross-national comparisons of the retirement income regimes in Finland and Australia, identifying international best practice in each country, comprise the second half of the article. Such comparisons will be of interest to policy-makers seeking new policy directions.     

The Politics of Welfare State Retrenchment: A Literature Review

Welfare state retrenchment is widely seen as a highly unpopular endeavour and, therefore, as politically difficult to pursue. This assumption has underpinned most of the political science research on this issue, notably Paul Pierson's seminal contributions about the ‘new politics of the welfare state’. Yet, the question remains why and under what circumstances cutbacks take place in highly developed welfare states despite these formidable political obstacles. This article reviews the literature on the politics of retrenchment, namely on the impact of socio‐economic problem pressure, political parties, political institutions, welfare state structures and ideas. Most authors agree that socio‐economic problems – particularly domestic problems – contribute to an atmosphere of ‘permanent austerity’ which inspires cutbacks. Moreover, according to most scholars, the extent of retrenchment possible depends on the specific institutional configuration of a political system and the path dependence of existing welfare state structures. The debate on the relevance of political parties and ideas, by contrast, is still far from settled. Further unresolved issues include the nature of the dependent variable in retrenchment studies. Also, the exact motives for cutbacks are theoretically still little understood, as are the political mechanisms through which they are realized. I argue that, because of the nature of these persisting issues, the pluralistic dialogue between different methods and approaches – as well as their combination – remains the most promising way forward in the study of welfare state politics.     

Partisan Effects on Welfare State Retrenchment: Empirical Evidence from a Measurement of Government Intentions

The effect of partisanship is disputed in the literature on welfare state retrenchment. The ‘new politics’ school argues that partisan conflicts are irrelevant to the understanding of retrenchment, but the second generation of retrenchment research concludes that such conflicts are still important. We engage in this debate by introducing a new empirical approach. Our method provides a necessary but currently missing link in the second generation of retrenchment studies which theorize on the input side of welfare state reform but conduct empirical studies on the output side. Our empirical approach entails a new type of data, compiled on the basis of content analysis of adopted laws, and we analyze the intentions pursued by incumbent governments in social policy‐making. Based on an empirical study, we find partisan effects in programmes protecting against social risks that are disproportionally distributed among social strata.     

Nationalist Reframing of the Finnish and Swedish Welfare States – The Nexus of Nationalism and Social Policy in Far‐right Populist Parties

The rise of right‐wing populist parties in the Nordic countries is slowly redefining the Nordic social democratic discourse of the universal and egalitarian welfare state. The nexus of nationalism and social policy has been explored in regions and countries such as Quebec, Scotland, Belgium and the UK, but the change of discourse in the Nordic countries has received less attention. Taking the case of Sweden and Finland, this article argues that Nordic populism does not question the redistributive welfare state per se as many other European neo‐liberal far‐right parties have done. Instead, it reframes the welfare state as being linked to a sovereign and exclusive Swedish and Finnish political community with distinct national boundaries. Although Sweden and Finland largely share a common welfare nation state discourse, the article also points to important differences in the way this discourse is able to frame the welfare nation state where access to, and the design of, social services are no longer universal and egalitarian but based around ethnicity. The article aims to demonstrate this through an analysis of the welfare discourses of two populist parties: Sweden Democrats and True Finns.     

The Political Economy of Social Insurance: Towards a Fiscal‐Centred Framework

This article draws attention to social insurance (SI) as a revenue raising institution, and explores the potential merits of drawing on new fiscal sociology for studying the development of SI systems. This is done by revisiting previous research conducted in Germany, the USA, Finland and Israel and by offering a new reading of their findings. The reviewed cases support two interlocking claims drawn from new fiscal sociology to the study of SI. The first is that state actors may perceive SI as an extraction instrument and employ it to advance fiscal and/or economic interests other than covering the costs of SI schemes. The second is that the design and management of contribution policies for such purposes may have substantial ramifications for the development of SI schemes. In addition, while current understandings tend to associate fiscal concerns with welfare state retrenchment, this article shows that they can also play a major role in driving welfare state expansion.     

Financial crisis and the developmental states: A case study of Hong Kong

Studies taking a mediation perspective have highlighted how the actual impact of economic globalisation is mediated by institutions that include welfare regimes. Some have examined how the welfare systems of East Asian developmental states have changed and adapted since the Asian financial crisis of 1997/1998. Using Hong Kong as a case study, this article examines how the developmental state of Hong Kong mediated the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008, particularly on disadvantaged groups. Hong Kong's welfare regime has provided insufficient support to ‘non‐productive’ groups despite incidents of social crisis. The government's welfare responses have been characterised by long‐term strategies to improve the competitiveness of the economy, and short‐term measures to boost the spending power of the general public. Measures targeted at disadvantaged groups have been piecemeal and minimal. The government's approach towards crisis management after 2008 has been similar to that taken after the 1997/1998 financial crisis.     

Partisanship,continuity, and change: Politics in Finnish unemployment benefit reforms 1985–2016

The apparent decline of partisan effects on social policies since the 1980s has encouraged the development of theories that challenge the traditional partisan politics theory. Although the new politics approach pointed to institutional path-dependence and to the unpopularity of radical retrenchment, recent research has highlighted shifts in electoral landscapes, differences in party systems and institutional contexts, and changing party-voter linkages. This in-depth case study contributes to debates on partisan effects by focusing on Finland, whose dualistic unemployment benefit system and institutional and political conditions provide an interesting case to analyse changing partisan effects. The aim is to explain, through qualitative policy analysis, why government partisanship has not had a significant effect on unemployment benefit levels since 1985. The explanations are different for earnings-related and flat-rate benefits. For the former, retrenchment efforts have seen a distinct partisan divide, but trade unions have thwarted most cutbacks; thus, although partisanship has not mattered much for policy outcomes, power resources have remained important as inhibitor of cuts. For the latter, parties that in the late 1980s still had differing priorities have since converged on policies emphasizing activation and work incentives. Universal flat-rate benefits have lacked political support and have been left to stagnate. The study suggests that one single theory is not sufficient to explain developments even in one single welfare policy—there are too many aspects to cover—not to speak of the entire welfare state consisting of an array of different schemes.     

The Retrenchment of the Welfare State in Latin America: The Case of Argentina

According to the conventional approving account of the transformations which have been taking place in public policy and in markets in Latin America, Argentina constitutes one of the most successful examples of wide-ranging and rapid change. Certainly the experience of Argentina offers an excellent case-study of what in the literature is termed " the retrenchment of the welfare states"; that is those institutional transformations associated with the "neoconservative revolutions" of recent years. In this paper I analyse the characteristics of Argentinian welfare state retrenchment, distinguishing between two fields of analysis: (1) "systemic retrenchment" which is linked to changes in the "referential environment" of social policy institutions, especially changes in the economic, fiscal, labour market and politico-institutional contexts: (2) "programmatic retrenchment" which refers to changes in the institutional ordering of specific social policies. Finally I draw conclusions in respect of the strategies adopted for the retrenchment of the welfare state in Argentina and discuss probable prospects for the future.     

Transferring from the poor to the rich: Examining regressive redistribution in Chinese social insurance programmes

Social insurance promotes progressive redistribution through risk pooling and cross‐subsidy. However, in China, risks and protection are mismatched, with benefits and protection accruing to the privileged while high‐risk groups are inadequately protected. This article reports on a study of the sources of regressive redistribution in Chinese pension, health and unemployment insurance programmes, and discusses the possible cause of this redistribution paradox. It argues that the government has adopted different strategies for welfare reform towards different socioeconomic groups. For the core groups, such as public employees, reform has been characterised by replacing old programmes with new (i.e., a replacement strategy). For marginal groups, the government has handed off its responsibilities to individuals and the market (a retrenchment strategy). This political pecking order of welfare reform is the cause of distorted distributional outcomes. As social policy programmes continue to spread in developing countries, China's case illustrates that they may reinforce existing disparities rather than realise progressive redistribution, risk management and social inclusion.     

The Great Recession and Welfare State Reform: Is Retrenchment Really the Only Game Left in Town?

By 2010, when the Greek sovereign debt crisis changed into an existential crisis of the euro, all developed democracies entered a phase in which they had to consolidate their budgets, typically implying a politics of austerity. The scholarly literature, as well as the popular press, suggests that – consequently – welfare retrenchment and cost containment became the only games left in town. In this article, we study the welfare state reform measures taken between 2010 and 2012 in four countries characteristic of mature welfare state regimes (liberal, UK; conservative, Germany; social democratic, Denmark; and hybrid, the Netherlands) to examine empirically whether austerity has indeed become the only item left on the policy menu. Our analysis reveals that retrenchment features prominently on the agenda everywhere, but nowhere by itself. While compensation for income loss is rare since 2010, this still happens. More unexpectedly, reforms in line with a social investment agenda (like expansion of child care or active labour market policies) are still being pursued in all our four cases.     

Foundations of the Workfare State – Reflections on the Political Transformation of the Welfare State in Britain

The British ‘welfare state’ has been transformed. ‘Welfare’ has been replaced by a new ‘workfare’ regime (the ‘Work Programme’) defined by tougher state regulatory practices for those receiving out‐of‐work benefits. US‐style mandatory community work programmes are being revived and expanded. This article, therefore, considers shifting public attitudes to work and welfare in Britain and changing attitudes to working‐age welfare and out‐of‐work benefits in particular. It also considers the extent to which recent transformations of the state may be explained by declines in traditional labourist politics and class‐based solidarity. Thus, we attempt to develop a richer understanding of changing public attitudes towards welfare and the punitive regulatory ‘workfare’ practices engaged by the modern state in the liberal market economy; reflecting on the nature of the relations between ideology, party policies, popular attitudes and their political impact.     

Welfare and the unemployment crisis: Sweden in the 1990s

In the 1990s Sweden went through a deep economic recession accompanied by a massive increase in unemployment and a rapidly growing budget deficit. The crisis had large repercussions for the welfare of many citizens and it generated cutbacks in virtually all social policy programmes. This halted a welfare-state expansion that had been going on for decades. It also caused great concern about the state of welfare of the nation. In 1999 the Swedish Government appointed a 'Welfare Commission', a team of academic researchers who were assigned the task of drawing up a balance sheet for the development of welfare in the 1990s. The Commission delivered its final report in October 2001. This article is a condensed account of one of the more central issues for the Commission; namely, how the unemployment crisis affected already socially and economically vulnerable groups. Looking at the development over the entire decade, three groups stand out as particularly disadvantaged in terms of individual welfare resources: young adults, immigrants and single mothers. The downturn for these groups was especially accentuated in terms of employment and income. Young people and immigrants trying to get into the labour market during the crisis years faced the problems of newcomers to the systems of social protection. The poor economic development for single mothers could essentially be attributed to the shortage of work in general and of full-time work in particular that followed from the unemployment crisis. As a consequence, the importance of selective benefits increased and the relative size of all public transfers – despite rationing measures – stayed fairly unchanged. The results highlight the great influence of macroeconomic conditions and policy making for the welfare of vulnerable groups in society.     

The redistributive effect of public and private social programmes: A cross‐country empirical analysis

A function of many national social protection systems is to substantially redistribute income. However, the size and nature of social protection programmes are changing. In a number of countries there has been a shift from public towards private social protection arrangements, with the latter substituting for, or complementing, public programmes. Developing earlier work, this present article analyses the redistributive impact on income of public versus private social protection programmes. Using recent data from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, we find a strong positive relationship between public social expenditures and income redistribution across countries. For private social expenditures, we find a weak, but statistically significant, negative relationship with the level of redistribution. In countries where a larger share of total social expenditure is accorded to private arrangements there is less income redistribution. We conclude that the choice between the relative weight of public and private provision of social protection affects the redistributive impact of the welfare state.     

Civil criticism and the welfare state

This article is a report on a Finnish survey on criticism of the welfare state. The research questions are: 1) How commonly do people see the negative sides of the welfare state? 2) What background variables correlate with critical attitudes? Data for the study were gathered in a representative Finnish mail survey (N=2, 949). The main results show that criticism against the welfare state is rather widespread in Finland. The most critical people are those who support the Rightist parties. However, different socio-economic groups express diverging forms of criticism. People with a lower position in stratification hierarchies are critical of the alleged bureaucracy of the welfare state. The middle classes are more critical about the redistributive effects of the welfare state. However, the widespread criticism cannot be interpreted as a sign of a legitimation crisis. People both support and criticize the welfare state at the same time.     

The evolution of the Georgian social protection system since independence: An unclear future despite recent expansion

In the first decade of transition, the Georgian social protection system experienced a major retrenchment as the government struggled to finance welfare provision in the face of massive economic contraction and the near collapse of public institutions. Since 2004, this trend has been reversed, with the economy returning to a fast growth path and public administration improving considerably. Recent reforms, including the notable introduction of universal public health insurance, are welcome steps towards building a modern welfare state. Major challenges still remain, however, especially in relation to the system's limited effect on widespread poverty. Decelerating growth, the lack of strong pro‐welfare actors, and the absence of positive external pull factors may stall or prevent future growth, but the changing nature of the social contract between the people and government, as well as Georgian politicians' growing recognition of the importance of the welfare system for inclusive growth, leaves ample space for optimism.     

When Is a Change Big Enough to Be a System Shift? Small System‐shifting Changes in German and Finnish Pension Policies

In the wake of Esping‐Andersen's and Pierson's landmark publications, comparative welfare state research has revolved around the retrenchment of social policy and the transformation of welfare state regimes. One of the chief problems of these studies is the treatment of time. Very often, changes are incremental and their real impacts are not immediately visible but take years or even decades before the consequences fully materialize. The purpose of this paper is to discuss those incremental processes—that consist of series of smaller “not‐system‐shifting changes”—which may gradually change central features of a welfare state. Pension programmes, spanning long time periods, provide a good example. Only in some rare cases were pension schemes reformed in one step and in such a way that one can definitely ascertain a system shift. Most changes, however, are gradual, and recurrently enacted minor adjustments seem to leave the basic principles of the scheme intact. In this paper pension reform policies in Germany and Finland will be used to answer the question of when a change is big enough to be labelled as a system shift. It is argued that small “not‐system‐shifting” changes of the last two decades will eventually alter the basic characteristics of old‐age security in both countries.