Weather,nutrition, and the economy: Short-run fluctuations in births,deaths, and marriages,France 1740–1909

This paper analyzes short-run fluctuations in national time series of vital events for France in the period 1740 to 1909. Fertility, mortality, and nuptiality form a simultaneous system which interacts with economic and meteorological conditions. In the short run, the demographic variables are endogenous. Economic and meteorological conditions are exogenous. Our indicator of economic conditions is the price of wheat, the principal food crop. Biometric models of fertility and empirical research on the biologically-based interrelations of fertility and mortality provide insight into the expected timing of events. We combine these results with empirical research on the effects of nutrition on fertility and mortality, research in medical biometeorology, and French historical demographic and economic research to formulate our model. The resultant distributed lag system is estimated. We find that the economic/nutritional effects are more likely to be statistically significant in predicting the time path of vital events than are the demographic variables or the effects of meteorological conditions.     

Mortality estimation from registered deaths in less developed countries

Age-specific population growth rates were introduced to demographic analysis in earlier work by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and Coale (1982). In this paper, we derive a method which uses these growth rates to transform what may be a set of incompletely recorded deaths by age into a life table that accurately reflects the true mortality experience of the population under study. The method does not rely on the assumption of stability and, for example, in contrast to intercensal cohort survival techniques, is simple to implement when presented with nontraditional intercensal interval lengths. Thus we can obtain mortality estimates for less developed countries with defective data, despite departures from stability. Further, we assess the sensitivity of the method to violations in various assumptions underlying the procedure: error in estimated growth rates, existence of non-zero net intercensal migration, age dependence in the completeness of death registration, and misreporting of age at death and age in the population. We demonstrate the use of the method in an application to data referring to Argentine females during the period 1960 to 1970.     

Annual mortality rates and excess deaths of children under five in Iraq, 1991-98

Data from two parallel household surveys conducted in Iraq by UNICEF in 1999 show that under-5 mortality declined steadily from 1974 to 1990, reaching about 63 per 1,000 live births in the period 1986-90. It then rose dramatically to 118 per 1,000 in 1991, the year of the Gulf War. The number of 'excess' under-5 deaths (i.e., the number in excess of the number predicted from past trends) in Iraq between 1991 and 1998 was calculated assuming that, instead of the rates measured by the 1999 survey for this period, either (a) average mortality rates for the period 1986-90 had been maintained, or (b) mortality had continued to decline at the rate observed between 1974 and 1990. According to these calculations, the estimated number of excess deaths resulting from the Gulf War and its aftermath up to 1998 was between 400,000 (assumption a) and 500,000 (assumption b).     

Excess deaths and Hurricane María

Population and Environment - We clarify the distinction between direct and indirect effects of disasters such as Hurricane María and use data from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics System to...     

Change point detection for COVID-19 excess deaths in Belgium

Journal of Population Research - Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from deaths with a positive COVID-19 test, many others have died...     

Matching experimentation in a dual record system for births and deaths in Morocco

Summary In an effort to improve the quality and completeness of birth and death reporting in Morocco, a sample of 84,000 persons was established, for whom birth and death data were collected by two methods. Each household was contacted once a month by interviewers in a registration method; independently, each household was interviewed once every six months by a survey team. Interviewing continued from April 1972 to July 1973. Results of these two methods were then compared through matching the vital events recorded by the two sources. First a 'true match status' was established by teams of 'experts', supplemented by field verification of uncertain cases. Of the 15 variables on the vital event reporting forms, eight were studied to establish the optimal tolerance limits for deciding whether any two completed recording forms (one from each method) were recording a single birth (or death) or two different ones. Next, those characteristics were selected which introduced the fewest matching errors; for births, this was the dwelling unit number, the name of the mother, and the name of the baby; for deaths, the dwelling unit number, the name of the person, and the name of the head of household. Aside from its manifest function, the matching operation also improved the fieldwork and helped to clean the data.     

Maternal mortality in South Africa: lessons from a case study in the use of deaths reported by households in censuses and surveys

South Africa is unique in being a developing country which has asked questions on pregnancy-related deaths in both its 2001 census and 2007 household survey, and monitors maternal and pregnancy-related mortality through vital registration and a confidential enquiry into maternal deaths. These sources of data provide a wide range of estimates of maternal mortality for the country. This paper examines these estimates to assess to what extent the differences between them are due to data deficiencies, methodological deficiencies or definitional differences. The results show that since maternal deaths are relatively rare it is fairly difficult to establish the maternal mortality rate with a great degree of accuracy in a setting where data are less than perfect. They also show that to some extent the differences are due to differences and errors in processing of data but that pregnancy-related mortality should not be treated as synonymous with maternal mortality. However, after adjustment, pregnancy-related mortality from vital registration was comparable with the level that may be expected using several alternative approaches, while the rate reported by households in census and surveys was about double that from vital registration. Nonetheless, all the data indicate an upward trend in maternal mortality that is in keeping with the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, which is likely to have contributed to the discrepancies.     

Beliefs and practices resulting in female deaths and fewer females than males in India

A preference for sons and the low status of females are implicated in the preponderance of males over females as reported in each census of India from the first one taken in the 19th century. A number of cultural practices, some of which are quite ancient, are involved in this sexual imbalance, namely, maternal mortality due to unhygienic lying-in and postpartum conditions and practices, female infanticide, female feticide, Sati, murder, dowry murder, and suicide. This discussion is based both on 19th and 20th century sources and on fieldwork conducted in the North Indian village of Shanti Nagar in 1958–59 and 1977–78. These practices are most prominent in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and the Union Territory of Delhi. Initially the British tended to overlook some of them, but in the early 19th century and thereafter the British Raj passed laws to curb, especially, female infanticide and Sati. The modern Government of India has also sought to abolish dowry which would, presumably, put an end to dowry murder. Moreover, the Government has issued three circulars directing that action be taken under the penal code against anyone using a prenatal sex-determination test with the object of abortion—a directive aimed at stopping female feticide. Again with the intent of curbing female feticide, a bill providing for punishment and heavy fines for doctors violating the ban on sex-determination tests has recently been introduced in the state legislature of Maharashtra. Despite these efforts, most of the beliefs and practices here described have proved to be tenacious.     

Estimating the completeness of reporting of adult deaths in populations that are approximately stable

An elaboration of Preston's (Preston and Hill, 1980) procedure for determining the completeness with which deaths are recorded in approximately stable populations is presented. Both the procedures of Preston and that of Brass are conventionally limited to mortality beyond early childhood, to mortality above age 5 or age 10. The method considered here is based on characteristics of stable populations, i.e., populations that have been subject for a long time to little variation in age-specific mortality schedules or in overall levels of fertility. The essential features of a stable population are maintained even if fertility has changed. This is the case as long as no strong trend in fertility existed more than 15 or 20 years before the date at which the population is observed. Recent changes in fertility may affect the structure of the population at adult ages, but the effect on estimates of completeness of death records can generally be kept within tolerably narrow limits. Prior to showing how explicit estimates of the relative completeness of recording of numbers of deaths and persons can be derived from counts of deaths and persons by age, it is noted that a life table for a stable population can be constructed directly from the recorded distribution of deaths by age, or from the recorded distribution of persons. The procedures described are applied to several different populations in order to illustrate the computational steps necessary to estimate the completeness of death records at ages above childhood in populations that are approximately stable.     

Measures and effectiveness in controlling omission of reports on infant deaths in Shanghai metropolitan areas]

The infant mortality rate is a sensitive indicator of a country's or area's economic, cultural, and health care conditions, and in particular, it reflects the quality of health care for women and young children. Since liberation, great progress has been achieved in Shanghai's health and medical care in general as well as in health care for women and young children, and the infant mortality rate has dropped notably. However, the omission of reports on infant deaths is still a very serious problem. In order to control such omissions in reporting, the Shanghai municipal government and Department for Public Health have improved the methods of reporting deaths. Health care units are required to fill out a report on births and deaths, and census registers in the city government are responsible for registering all new births and deaths and preparing complete statistics on new births and deaths. At the end of each year, special investigators are sent to various hospitals to check on omissions of reports on infant deaths and they also help households to report infant deaths to census registers. The new measures have proved to be very effective. According to a new report released in 1980, the omission of reports on infant deaths has been reduced by 94.01% as compared with the 1972 statistics.     

Annual Variations in Deaths by Age,Deaths by Cause,Prices, and Weather in London 1670 to 1830

The impact of annual variations in prices, temperature, and rainfall on annual fluctuations in age-specific and disease-specific mortality is examined for London from 1670 to 1830. The analysis reveals that deaths in London in the middle and older age groups tended to increase when grain prices were high. Increases in deaths among the elderly are associated with unusually cold winters and unusually warm summers. High grain prices tend to increase the incidence of epidemic diseases, while endemic diseases appear to increase with colder winters and warmer summers. The role of migration is discussed in the light of the results and the implications for long-term mortality decline are considered.     

Demographic crisis: The impact of the Bangladesh civil war (1971) on births and deaths in a rural area of Bangladesh

Summary In Matlab Bazaar Thana the Cholera Research Laboratory has registered the births, deaths and migrations in a population of approximately 125,000 since 1966. Although this rural area was not the scene of any significant armed encounters, striking changes in birth and death rates were registered during and after the conflict. Birth rates did not change during the relatively brief period of the civil war, but a small decline was registered for one year after the war. Fertility rates which had been declining slightly and irregularly in the pre-war baseline period may have increased slightly during the war and fell substantially in all age groups in the year following the war. The crude death rate, which rose by 37 per cent during the war, was a very sensitive reflection of the administrative and economic problems. Overall infant mortality rose by only 15 per cent over pre-war levels because all of the increase was observed in the post-neo-natal component, which traditionally accounts for less than one-third of the total infant mortality in Bangladesh. Children and older adults accounted for the majority of excess deaths which were largely attributed to acute diarrhoeas and other gastro-intestinal causes. The death rate at ages 1-4 rose by 43 per cent and at ages 5-9 soared to 208 per cent above pre-war baseline rates. All increases in age-specific mortality rates fell to baseline levels during the year following the war, except the 5-9-year age group, in which rates continued to be high largely because of deaths due to dysentery.