The Post-demographic Transition in East and South East Asia: Similarities and Contrasts with Europe

During the past 15 years spectacular changes in demographic behaviour have occurred in parts of east and south-east Asia. In this paper these changes are examined and contrasted with those that have taken place in parts of Europe at the corresponding period. Although it was to be expected that the Asian transitions would have been much shorter than in Europe, it is surprising that the transition in Asian countries has in many respects caught up with and even overtaken that in the European countries where it occurred much earlier.     

Social Health Indicators and Economic Growth: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific,Middle East and North Africa,South Asia,and Sub-Saharan Africa

The objective of this study is to empirically investigate a two-way statistical relationship between the social health indicators and economic growth in the context of four major regions of the world i.e., East Asia and Pacific, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. To recognize the relationship between the two variables, a time series, co-integration and Granger causality tests have been employed. Aggregate secondary data pertaining to these four regions from 1975 to 2011 on economic growth and social health indicators i.e., infant mortality, child abuse, child poverty, unemployment, weekly wages, health insurance coverage, teenage suicide, teenage drug abuse, high school dropouts, poverty, out-of-pocket health costs, homicides, alcohol related traffic fatalities, food insecurity, income inequality, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, basic health units and rural health centers has been used for analysis. This study evaluates four alternative but equally plausible hypotheses, each with different policy implications. These are: (1) social health indicators Granger cause economic growth, (2) economic growth Granger cause social health indicators (the conventional view), (3) There is a bi-directional causality between the two variables and (4) Both variables are causality independent (although highly correlated). The empirical results only moderately support the conventional view that economic growth has significant long run casual effect on social health indicators in East Asia and Pacific, MENA, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The present study find evident of unidirectional causality running towards economic growth to social health indicators, although, there are some bidirectional causality also exists between the variables. The percentage of unidirectional causality between economic growth and social health indicators is larger than bidirectional or neutrality hypothesis.     

Expansion of Secondary AND Tertiary Education in South East Asia: Some Implications for Australia

The number of secondary and tertiary graduates in South East Asia is growing very rapidly. Many interrelated issues arise. One is the need to improve equity of access to these levels of education. Another is the need to broaden the employment base for the better-educated beyond the professional and clerical jobs (largely in the public service) which have hitherto been available to most secondary and tertiary graduates. Yet another relates to the appropriate content of education at these levels, the appropriate rate of expansion and the ultimate target for the proportion of young people receiving tertiary education. There are many parallel issues for Australia, particularly as Australian educational policy, increasingly favouring the supply of places in Australian educational institutions on a full-fee basis, requires a greater “meshing” of educational systems with those in the region. Australia should also be aware that rapidly rising numbers of educated youth in an uncertain job market could lead to increased political instability in some South East Asian countries and an increase in applications for migration to Australia. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Australian Population Association Conference, Brisbane, 31 August-2 September 1988. The author would like to thank participants in that Conference, as well as Anthony Reid and Jamie Mackie, for valuable comments, though they are in no way responsible for remaining shortcomings in the paper.     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

东亚地区人口老龄化特征分析

东亚地区是目前倍受国际关注的经济高速发展的地区 ,但其人口也迅速老龄化。本文比较了东亚地区各国 ,尤其是两个东亚大国———中国和日本的人口老龄化的特点 ,进而总结了东亚地区人口老龄化的特点。     

Neo-natal mortality in South Asia: The special role of tetanus

First-year mortality in rural Uttar Pradesh is characterized by a predominance (60 per cent) of deaths during the first month of life, of which 66 per cent are reported to be due to tetanus. This pattern is not typical of the historical experience of many developed countries and the current experience of some less developed countries where post-neo-natal mortality predominates. To examine this phenomenon, two causal models of neo-natal mortality (one for tetanus and one for all other diseases) are developed and tested using retrospective survey data from 2000 couples living in rural Uttar Pradesh.

Neo-natal tetanus mortality is found to be primarily a function of opportunities for exposure to the disease (e.g. lack of antiseptic birth practices, ownership of large animals) rather than of socio-economic status or demographic variables. The importance of examining neo-natal mortality by cause, and the shortcomings inherent in making inferences from the historical experiences of Western nations are emphasized.     

Neo-natal mortality in South Asia: The special role of tetanus

Summary First-year mortality in rural Uttar Pradesh is characterized by a predominance (60 per cent) of deaths during the first month of life, of which 66 per cent are reported to be due to tetanus. This pattern is not typical of the historical experience of many developed countries and the current experience of some less developed countries where post-neo-natal mortality predominates. To examine this phenomenon, two causal models of neo-natal mortality (one for tetanus and one for all other diseases) are developed and tested using retrospective survey data from 2000 couples living in rural Uttar Pradesh. Neo-natal tetanus mortality is found to be primarily a function of opportunities for exposure to the disease (e.g. lack of antiseptic birth practices, ownership of large animals) rather than of socio-economic status or demographic variables. The importance of examining neo-natal mortality by cause, and the shortcomings inherent in making inferences from the historical experiences of Western nations are emphasized.     

Below-replacement fertility: Determinants and prospects in South Asia

Although 10 countries and two of China’s special administrative areas, totalling 1,528 million people or 44 per cent of Asia’s total population, are now characterized by fertility rates below long-term replacement levels, no such countries are yet found in South Asia. This paper first examines the characteristics of 12 Asian administrations with very low fertility at various stages of their fertility declines and then compares the findings with the present situation in three South Asian countries, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. This allows a prediction of when the South Asian countries will reach replacement fertility in accord with the trends in two key criteria, the percentage of girls in secondary school and the infant mortality rate. These conclusions are then buttressed for each country by the findings of anthropological demographic research programs in which the authors were involved. The predictions are that all three countries will attain a total fertility rate of 2.1 within the next 30 years and that the UN2000 Revision of the medium population projection is plausible in that regard. However, the authors part company with the UN projection in their assessment that the nature of these societies means that they will all subsequently fall to still lower fertility levels.     

International dependence and urbanization in East Asia: Implications for planning

In recent years the political economy of the world-system approach to macrostructural change has asserted itself as a dominant paradigm in the sociology of development. Increasingly, comparative urban researchers have pointed to the linkages between the growth of Third World cities and the role these places play in the changing international system. This article begins by summarizing the major elements of this perspective on “dependent urbanization.” Then the urban experiences of the less-developed nations of East Asia are interpreted using this approach. This analysis leads into a discussion that centers on the main objective of the article, which is to tie the dependency/world-system perspective to policy-making and planning. How can this research contribute to debates about practical problems and suggest realistic, implementable solutions? The article concludes with some general comments about the relationship between theoretical analysis, planning, and action directed at bringing about social change.     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.     

Fertility and Financial Development in South Asia

The paper empirically examines old-age security hypothesis to explain fertility rates in South Asia. Panel data is used for the period 1972–2013 for seven South Asian countries which include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The estimated results reveal that in South Asia fertility rate decreases with the increase in financial development. Thus, the findings support old-age security hypothesis that parents use children as financial instruments to secure their old age. This paper validates the theory that the availability of alternative financial tools reduces the incentives of households to have large offspring. Infant mortality is also shown an important factor for high fertility rate in South Asia. This implies that households cover their risk from losing children by producing more children. The results also reveal that fertility rate decreases with the increase in per capita income, which implies that households treat children as inferior good in this region. In other words, households prefer quality of children over quantity of children when their income level increases. The results have also shown that fertility decreases with the increase in education, urbanization, agriculture productivity and industrialization. The study has some important policy implications.     

Degrading Environment Threatens Health in East Asia

Pollution and environmental degradation increasingly threaten the health of East Asia and Pacific‘s rapidly urbanizing population, according to two new environment reports from the World Bank.     

Religion and Health in Early Childhood: Evidence from South Asia

This article studies early childhood health in India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, focusing on inequalities in anthropometric outcomes by religious adherence. India and Nepal have Hindu majorities, while Bangladesh is predominantly Muslim. The results suggest that Muslim infants have an advantage over Hindu infants in height‐for‐age in India (for boys and girls) and in Bangladesh (for boys). However, this advantage disappears beyond 12 months of age, at which point Hindu children in all three countries are found to have significantly better anthropometric outcomes than Muslim children. We report tests that rule out mortality selection and undertake falsification and robustness exercises that confirm these findings. Further results suggest that exposure to Ramadan fasting in utero may lead to positive selection of Muslim male infants, partially explaining the Muslim infant health advantage, but this does not fully explain the shift from Muslim advantage in infancy to Hindu advantage in childhood in all three countries.     

Tibetan Fertility Transitions in China and South Asia

The own‐children method, an indirect technique, is used to estimate fertility rates for two populations of Tibetans during the 1980s and 1990s: a sample of rural villages in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China and exiles living in India and Nepal. The analysis provides evidence that these two populations underwent remarkably similar fertility transitions in both timing and magnitude. In both cases total fertility rates declined from over six births per woman to below the level of replacement in a span of 15 years. The parallel nature of these fertility transitions is intriguing given that, although the populations share a common ethnic identity, they have lived under sharply differing political, economic, and social conditions since the 1960s.     

Quality of Life in Transition Countries: Central East Europe with Special Reference to Croatia

With the historical change of the socio-economic system in ex-communist European countries quality of life of the population changed dramaticaly, improving in some components and within certain social strata and deteriorationg in others. These changes are analysed within the framework of authentic development and quality of life components: economic, social, political, environmental, cultural and human. The major aspect of the changes is the enlargement of human choices in all of the components, and to different extents in different countries in transition. The future of the whole transition process lies in its sustainablity and ability to draw on its past experience as well as on the experience of the Western world.     

Youth Future Civic Participation in Europe: Differences Between the East and the Rest

European countries were economically and politically separated during the Cold War, but since its end processes of globalization and the formation of the European Union have contributed to blur the borders. Previous studies suggest that the social transformations have affected differently civic participation of youths, but shortage of more recent data has precluded researchers from examining the differences in a country-comparative fashion. Along these lines, this paper has two main objectives: to explore the differences in the levels of expected civic participation across Europe, and to evaluate the fit of a theoretical model of civic participation in regard to the different points in time their democracies were established. To achieve these goals, data from 22 European educational systems (9 post-communist and 13 established democracies) participating in the International Civic and Citizenship Study (2009) conducted by International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement is used. The results, in accordance with the literature, suggest differentiated patterns of future civic participation between the new and established democracies, but they are not that clear, suggesting that convergence between the two groups is ongoing. However, the tested empirical model of civic participation functions in a better way in the established than in the new democracies. In contrast with previous findings, differences in levels of expected civic participation seem to be related not only with the countries’ experience with democracy, but also with their cultural similarities and common history.     

Comparative study on population transition in Japan and in Europe]

Over 6,000,000 Japanese military personnel and their families returned to Japan after WWII. Within 5 years, Japan's population increased by 11,000,000. However, within 10 years of Japan's 1949 removal of restrictions on abortions and sterilization, her birth rate dropped by half. At the same time, her economy stabilized and prospered. Japan's population had made the transition from a traditional pattern of reproduction to a modern pattern. Demographers saw it as unique, calling it a "population revolution." In reality, however, Japan's "population revolution" was not unique; it belonged to the same category as Europe's population transition. The birth rate in both Europe and Japan 1st reached a peak in the 1920s before declining rapidly through the decades to the 1960s. Japan's mortality rate showed a steady decline from 1860-80, when it began a sharp decline to the 1960s. In Europe, the mortality rate remained relatively level from 1860-1900, when its rapid decline began. While Japan's population transition was very similar to Europe's, it took less time for Japan, in large part because the Japanese government played a dominant role in its nation's industrialization. Once Japan became an industrialized and capitalistic nation, birth rates began to decline. But other factors contributed to this phenomenon as well: high literacy, urbanization, modern life styles, widespread knowledge of birth control, a strong government population policy, and an attitude that fewer births was better.     

The economic commission for Asia and the Far East program to assist fertility control

Demography - In conclusion, the ECAFE program to assist fertility control is vigorous and expanding. For demographers, this program, and especially the meetings of the technical groups, should have...     

The demographic transition in the Korean peninsula, 1910-1990: South and North Korea compared

North and South Korea have both experienced demographic transition and fertility and mortality declines. The fertility declines came later in North Korea. In 1990, the population was 43.4 million in South Korea and 21.4 million in North Korea and the age and sex compositions were similar. This evolution of population structure occurred despite differences in political systems and fertility determinants. Differences were in the fertility rate and the rate of natural increase. The total fertility rate was 2.5 children in North Korea and 1.6 in South Korea. The rate of natural increase was 18.5 per 1000 in North Korea and 9.8 in South Korea. Until 1910, the Korean peninsula was in the traditional stage characterized by high fertility and mortality. The early transitional stage came during 1910-45 under the Japanese annexation. Health and medical facilities improved and the crude birth rate rose and then declined. With the exception of the war years, population expanded as a function of births, deaths, and international migration. Poor economic conditions in rural areas acted as a push factor for south-directed migration, migration to Japan, and urban migration. Next came the chaotic stage, during 1945-60. South Korean population expanded during this period of political unrest. Repatriation and refugee migration constituted a large proportion of the population increase. Although the war brought high mortality, new medicine and disease treatment reduced the mortality rate after the war. By 1955-60, the crude death rate was 16.1 per 1000 in South Korea. The crude birth rate remained high at 42 per 1000 between 1950-55. The postwar period was characterized by the baby boom and higher fertility than the pre-war period of 1925-45. Total fertility was 6.3 by 1955-60. The late transitional stage occurred during 1960-85 with reduced fertility and continued mortality decline. By 1980-85, total fertility was 2.3 in the closed population. The restabilization stage occurred during 1985-90, and fertility declined to 1.6. In North Korea, strong population control policies precipitated fertility decline. In South Korea, the determinants were contraception, rising marriage age, and increased use of abortion concomitant with improved socioeconomic conditions.     

Women are key players in the economies of East and Southeast Asia

In 1996, the East-West Center's Program on Population investigated the links between population change and economic growth in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia. This document discusses the findings pertaining to women's changing marriage and childbearing patterns, education attainment, and labor force participation as well as changes in family life. In eastern and southeastern Asia, women are delaying marriage and having fewer children as a result of their overwhelming acceptance of modern contraception. Concurrently, women's secondary school enrollment has increased dramatically since 1960, and women have accounted for steadily increasing proportions of total labor force growth. Economic development has led to fewer women employed in agriculture and more in clerical positions. Women continue to be marginalized in low-paying manufacturing jobs and to lose these jobs more frequently than do men. Women's labor force participation continues to be dependent upon their child care responsibilities, but women are beginning to combine both activities with the help of live-in grandparents. Women have made an important contribution to economic growth in Asia. Policies should address job discrimination against married women, wage discrimination, the problems faced by young women who leave home for employment in the manufacturing and service sectors, and the lack of child care facilities.