美国反垄断法的演变轨迹——政治博弈的视角

美国反垄断法的历史演变呈现出了典型的“钟摆式”运行轨迹,与其不断“经济学化”的主流解释存在抵牾。经济学理论、政党政治以及经济和战争危机等因素确实对美国反垄断法的演变有影响,但是这些解释都不尽周延。以生产者团体和消费者团体为代表的利益团体之间的“政治博弈”,是导致美国反垄断法钟摆式演变的根本原因。这种博弈塑造了美国的反垄断政策,并不断引导美国反垄断法的发展和演变。     

Korean and American Children's Concepts of Adult and Peer Authority

The primary purpose of this research was to examine Korean children's concepts of authority. Children's judgments about commands of persons with varying age, social position, and knowledge were assessed. 48 subjects from the first, third, and fifth grades were presented with portrayals of persons giving children commands regarding two types of events: fighting and a game rule dispute. Subjects evaluated the legitimacy of commands and chose between different persons giving opposing commands. With regard to a command to stop fighting, subjects accepted the legitimacy of adult and peer authorities, as well as an adult without a position of authority. Subjects rejected commands that failed to prevent harm even when given by an adult authority. With regard to a game rule dispute, subjects most heavily weighted knowledge in evaluating the authority commands. The findings show that Korean children do not have a unitary orientation to adult authority, and have implications for an understanding of individuals' conceptions in the context of a cultural ideology emphasizing reverence for authority. A second study, with a group of fifth graders from the United States, was conducted to determine how the game event task or cultural influences accounted for some differences between previous findings in the U.S. and the findings with the Korean children. The second study showed that whereas the U.S. children mainly respond in ways similar to the Korean children, the U.S. children gave more priority to pragmatic considerations; the Korean children gave more priority to the attribute of the authority's knowledge.     

Is Immigration Responsible for the Crime Drop? An Assessment of the Influence of Immigration on Changes in Violent Crime Between 1990 and 2000*

Objectives. The idea that immigration increases crime rates has historically occupied an important role in criminological theory and has been central to the public and political discourses and debates on immigration policy. In contrast to the common sentiment, some scholars have recently questioned whether the increase in immigration between 1990 and 2000 may have actually been responsible for part of the national decrease in crime during the 1990s. The current work evaluates the influence of immigration on crime in urban areas across the United States between 1990 and 2000. Methods. Drawing on U.S. Census and Uniform Crime Report data, I first use ordinary least squares regression models to assess the cross‐sectional relationship between immigration patterns and rates of homicide and robbery among U.S. cities with populations of at least 50,000. Second, I employ pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models to determine how changes in immigration influenced changes in homicide and robbery rates between 1990 and 2000. Results. In the ordinary least squares models, immigration is associated with higher levels of homicide and robbery. However, the pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models suggest that cities with the largest increases in immigration between 1990 and 2000 experienced the largest decreases in homicide and robbery during the same time period. Conclusion. The findings offer insights into the complex relationship between immigration and crime and suggest that growth in immigration may have been responsible for part of the precipitous crime drop of the 1990s.     

Long-Term Behavior in the Theory of Moves

This paper proposes a revised Theory of Moves (TOM) to analyze matrix games between two players when payoffs are given as ordinals. The games are analyzed when a given player i must make the first move, when there is a finite limit n on the total number of moves, and when the game starts at a given initial state S. Games end when either both players pass in succession or else a total of n moves have been made. Studies are made of the influence of i, n, and S on the outcomes. It is proved that these outcomes ultimately become periodic in n and therefore exhibit long-term predictable behavior. Efficient algorithms are given to calculate these ultimate outcomes by computer. Frequently the ultimate outcomes are independent of i, S, and n when n is sufficiently large; in this situation this common ultimate outcome is proved to be Pareto-optimal. The use of ultimate outcomes gives rise to a concept of stable points, which are analogous to Nash equilibria but consider long-term effects. If the initial state is a stable point, then no player has an incentive to move from that state, under the assumption that any initial move could be followed by a long series of moves and countermoves. The concept may be broadened to that of a stable set. It is proved that every game has a minimal stable set, and any two distinct minimal stable sets are disjoint. Comparisons are made with the results of standard TOM.     

美国“重返亚太”战略的发展及其影响

本文从美国重返亚太入手,分析近年美国对亚太政策的调整、变化及其根源,在此基础上探讨美国重返亚太政策对地缘政治的影响。在当前的国际形势下,美国重返亚太反映了美国重视与亚洲各国的合作,而不仅仅是在亚太搞对抗。当然,加强与亚洲各国,尤其是与中国的合作才最符合美国的国家利益。美国在重返亚太的过程中,受到经济实力因金融危机而削弱的影响,露骨地使用军事硬实力、挑唆亚洲一些国家对华敌视情绪,不利于亚洲各国的发展,也对美国当前的经济恢复没有好处。     

气候安全威胁美国的国计民生

本文通过在美国访问期间所作的《美国气候变化和国际安全的调查问卷》数据报告,进行系统的整理分析,来分析气候变化所带来的直接安全和间接安全问题。气候变化的影响远不限于它本身带来的生态威胁,由其所产生的国际冲突、资源争夺和国际干预也对美国外交提出了新的挑战。问卷结果显示,气候变化在中长期（至2025年前后）将会逐渐成为影响美国国家安全比较重要的因素,美国国内对于气候安全的共识将会逐渐加深。美国对气候安全政治化和国际化的重视程度日益深入,这会给未来美国参与全球气候谈判注入新的动力。世界各国应对美国的气候外交有所关切,并在合作中进行积极应对。     

Friends of the Circuits: Interest Group Influence on Decision Making in the U.S. Courts of Appeals*

Objective. Though there is an extensive literature focused on the participation and efficacy of interest group amici curiae in the U.S. Supreme Court, there is little rigorous analysis of amici curiae in the U.S. Courts of Appeals. Here, we systematically analyze the influence of amicus curiae briefs on U.S. Court of Appeals decision making to provide insights regarding both judicial decision making and the efficacy of interest groups. Methods. We use a probit model to capture influences on appellant success in the courts of appeals from 1997–2002. Results. We find that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellant enhance the likelihood of that litigant's probability of success, but that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellee have no effect on litigation outcomes. Conclusion. Amici can help level the playing field between appellants and appellees by serving to counter the propensity to affirm in the U.S. Courts of Appeals.     

Costs and distortion of U.S. regulation policy in intercoastal lumber shipping

This article quantitatively analyzes the various impacts of current U.S. coastal restrictions on the Northwest lumber industry. The history of U.S. maritime regulation is briefly reviewed and a simulation model is developed to measure its affect on lumber shipments and transport costs. The results of the model indicate that aggregate cost redutions obtained through deregulation are likely to be small. The pattern of intercoastal shipments could change a great deal, however, with U.S. producers picking up a large share of the Northeast market.     

Bilingual Education Programs: A Cross-National Perspective

We examine alternative forms of bilingual education that have significant implications for intergroup relationships and the reduction of prejudice in two different national settings: Canada and the United States. The Canadian programs are intended for English-speaking students from the culturally dominant group, whereas the U.S. programs we discuss are intended for language minority and language majority students. Both aim to promote proficiency in English and another language. These programs provide many of the conditions that are argued to be essential for the reduction of prejudice and discrimination. They also provide students with the communication skills and cultural awareness that facilitates intergroup contact. The history and current structure of these programs along with salient educational practices are reviewed, and research relevant to changes in intergroup behavior and attitudes is discussed.     

Pulpits Versus Ivory Towers: Socializing Agents and Evolution Attitudes*

Objective. Although debate concerning the theory of evolution is part of an ongoing U.S. dialogue over the proper role of religion in society, academics have provided little in the way of systematic understanding of public opinion on this issue. Important questions, such as the relative influence of socializing agents—religion and education—in shaping attitudes on evolution remain unanswered. Building on socialization and cognitive accessibility theories, we offer a framework for predicting public opinion on human origins and the teaching of evolution in public schools. Methods. We model attitudes on evolution and related policy through analysis of data from a 2005 national survey of U.S. adults. Results. Our analysis suggests that religion and education are key predictors of opinion, but that gender, partisanship, and ideology also play an important role. Conclusion. The socializing agent of religion outweighs the effect of education on attitudes related to evolution.     

Regional cultures and health outcomes: Implications for performance measurement,public health and policy

The U.S. Medicare program now ties payment to health care providers based on their patients’ outcomes. This change comes as compilations of data on geographic variations in health outcomes and quality of care indicate patterns that appear to be deeply ingrained. This study explores whether cultural characteristics correlate with health outcomes such that quality indicators may be measuring something other than quality of care, and whether regional subcultures have a significant impact on public health. It concludes that two cultural dimensions, social capital and traditional/rational-secularism, which explain a sufficient proportion of outcome variations to cast doubt as to whether outcome measures capture provider quality. Correlations are explored between American regional subcultures identified by Joel Lieske and the variation in health outcomes. In a multidimensional analysis of Lieske's typology, results indicate that certain U.S. subpopulations have cultural advantages or disadvantages relating to health.     

The international trade in automobiles: Explaining short-run changes in the import share of the United States market, 1979–1981

This paper examines the underlying causes for the rapid rise of the import share of the U.S. automobile market in the 1979 to 1981 time frame. Using data on the import share by state for the 1975–1979 period, a logit model is developed explaining movements in the import share. The principal purpose is to demonstrate that the rapid growth of the import share was due to a unique set of short-run factors such as constrained U.S. small car production capacity and exceptional consumer preference for fuel efficient automobiles. The sensitivity of the import share to changes in different factors is examined. The article concludes that U.S. policy makers concerned with the long-run viability of the U.S. automobile industry should discriminate between changes in import penetration caused by short-run factors and those caused by a secular deterioration of the U.S. comparative advantage in automobile production.     

美国霸权的历史成因及其现实问题

美国霸权的获得是一个历史演进过程,它既根源于美国超强的国家实力和持续的创新能力,也离不开在国际战略方面对世界霸权的追求和谋划,这其中包括对实力的崇尚、对世界大战的利用、倡导"国际规范"、保持对地缘政治的关注、掌控联盟体系及对潜在竞争者的遏制和打击等。当前,随着美国国内力量基础生变、国际战略调整失误和外部环境的演变,美国霸权正在步入结构性式微阶段,有可能成为影响世界和平与发展的一个风险因素,其何去何从引人关注。     

Prices,costs, and competition at the technology frontier: A model for semiconductor memories

Economic competition, both internationally and within national borders, is being profoundly affected by relative ability to participate in markets with short product cycles and significant learning periods. However, effective tools for examining policies in this context have yet to be developed. This paper attempts a first step by presenting an empirical model for the semiconductor memory industry. As an illustration, the model is used to analyze recent developments in the competition between U.S. and Japanese producers.     

Are there rewards for language skills? Evidence from the earnings of registered nurses

The existing empirical evidence on whether U.S. labor markets reward workers for second-language skills is meager and conflicting. Employing data from the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses in 2000 and 2004, this study reexamines the positive bilingual–earnings relationship found in the most current research on this topic. We test the relationship using alternative models that explain the wages earned by nurses. The advantage of this approach is that it permits an assessment of how sensitive the results are to changes in the variables used in the model. We find the evidence of a positive bilingual effect on earnings to be mixed. The relationship is sufficiently frail that statistically significant results eventually dissolve as more precise occupational characteristics are included in the wage equation. Moreover, using more current data, we find no evidence of a wage premium paid to nurses for second-language skills. We offer possible explanations for this lack of evidence within this specific occupation.     

Are Public Expenditures Associated with Better Child Outcomes in the U.S.? A Comparison across 50 States

Our article utilizes variation across the 50 U.S. states to examine the relationship between public expenditures on children and child outcomes. We find that public expenditures on children are related to better child outcomes across a wide range of indicators including measures of child mortality, elementary school test scores, and adolescent behavioral outcomes. States that spend more on children have better child outcomes even after taking into account a number of potential confounding influences. Our results are robust to numerous variations in model specifications and to the inclusion of proxies for unobserved characteristics of states. Our sensitivity analyses suggest that the results we present may be conservative, yet our findings reveal a strong relationship between state generosity toward children and children's well-being.     

地缘战略与大国关系:中日关系基本走势的再分析CSSCI

自新冠肺炎疫情发生以来,中日两国主要通过高层沟通、捐赠物资等手段来合作抗疫。“山川异域、风月同天”的话语给双边关系注入了温情。菅义伟上台后,中日两国关系发生逆转,现任岸田文雄首相更是提出了要把“对付中国”作为首要目标。2020年的“疫情外交”对改善和升温中日关系的短暂效应,已经清楚地说明了在美国实施对华战略竞争政策后,日本以制衡中国为国家安全利益定位的“国家利益论”和“国际贡献论”都变得越发清晰。日本已经成为在中美战略竞争中完全“选边美国”的少数亚太国家。自中日邦交正常化以来两国的睦邻友好关系正在被日本政界似乎铁了心的“制衡中国论”所取代。已经完全超出“周边事态”、一心想要助力美国对华战略遏制的日本,给中国周边外交增加了新的变数。     

新形势下日本强化经济安全保障及其影响

随着科技革命、产业革命蓬勃兴起,国际经济秩序面临深刻调整,地缘政治冲突加剧,中美博弈长期化。2020年新冠肺炎疫情的发生和蔓延,进一步推动了上述趋势。日益增强的不确定性和风险,成为制约各经济体持续稳定发展的潜在因素。在此形势下,主要国家和地区从安全保障的角度强化经济活动,在发展与安全之间寻求新的平衡。近几年,日本不断健全和完善经济安全政策法规,强化政府相关职能,努力提升在关键技术、供应链、战略资源等方面的自主性,同时与欧美等“志同道合国”加强合作,促进形成符合日本利益的国际规则和秩序,实现日本在国际社会“不可或缺”的存在及其国家战略。日本强化经济安全保障,会给自身、地区及世界带来一些影响。     

Lone Parents and Welfare‐to‐Work in England: A Spatial Analysis of Outcomes and Drivers

Mirroring changes across nations of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, recent UK governments have redrawn lone parents' entitlement to social assistance benefits ever tighter around participation in the labour market. A radical shift since 2008 has been the gradual transfer of most non‐employed lone parents into the ‘activating’ Jobseekers' Allowance (JSA) regime. The enhanced conditionality requirements of this JSA regime have been justified by both paternalistic and contractualist arguments but, however justified, are built on the premise that behavioural factors drive lone parent employment outcomes, a view made increasingly forcefully under the current Coalition government. This article uses up‐to‐date administrative data at local authority level across England to provide a geographical perspective into the sub‐national changes in lone parent employment outcomes since the transfer to JSA from 2008, as well as the relevant importance of the alternative structural and behavioural accounts to these outcomes. The findings suggest that the JSA transfer has increased lone parent employment, that structural rather than behavioural drivers are more relevant causal factors and that there is good reason to be concerned about the effect of the reforms on the well‐being of lone parents and their children.     

美欧债务危机应对路径的国际比较研究

美欧发达国家政府的债务危机问题已越来越严重,逐渐引起了包括发展中国家在内的世界各国的广泛关注。面对此次危机,美欧各国都相继采取了各种财政、货币政策措施加以应对,由于各国国情各异,采取的措施和取得的效果也不同。通过分析美欧国家债务危机产生的原因,列举美欧应对危机采取的措施,并对其进行分析比较,得出了主权债务危机给中国发展的几点启示。