Second‐order analysis of marked inhomogeneous spatiotemporal point processes: Applications to earthquake data

To analyze interactions in marked spatiotemporal point processes (MSTPPs), we introduce marked second‐order reduced moment measures and K‐functions for inhomogeneous second‐order intensity‐reweighted stationary MSTPPs. These summary statistics, which allow us to quantify dependence between different mark‐based classifications of points, depend on the specific mark space and mark reference measure chosen. Unbiased and consistent minus‐sampling estimators are derived for all statistics considered, and a test for random labeling is indicated. In addition, we treat Voronoi intensity estimators for MSTPPs. These new statistics are finally employed to analyze an Andaman Sea earthquake data set.     

Geometric Anisotropic Spatial Point Pattern Analysis and Cox Processes

We consider spatial point processes with a pair correlation function, which depends only on the lag vector between a pair of points. Our interest is in statistical models with a special kind of ‘structured’ anisotropy: the pair correlation function is geometric anisotropic if it is elliptical but not spherical. In particular, we study Cox process models with an elliptical pair correlation function, including shot noise Cox processes and log Gaussian Cox processes, and we develop estimation procedures using summary statistics and Bayesian methods. Our methodology is illustrated on real and synthetic datasets of spatial point patterns.     

A J‐function for Inhomogeneous Spatio‐temporal Point Processes

We propose a new summary statistic for inhomogeneous intensity‐reweighted moment stationarity spatio‐temporal point processes. The statistic is defined in terms of the n‐point correlation functions of the point process, and it generalizes the J‐function when stationarity is assumed. We show that our statistic can be represented in terms of the generating functional and that it is related to the spatio‐temporal K‐function. We further discuss its explicit form under some specific model assumptions and derive ratio‐unbiased estimators. We finally illustrate the use of our statistic in practice. © 2014 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics     

Consistent Smooth Bootstrap Kernel Intensity Estimation for Inhomogeneous Spatial Poisson Point Processes

Non‐parametric estimation and bootstrap techniques play an important role in many areas of Statistics. In the point process context, kernel intensity estimation has been limited to exploratory analysis because of its inconsistency, and some consistent alternatives have been proposed. Furthermore, most authors have considered kernel intensity estimators with scalar bandwidths, which can be very restrictive. This work focuses on a consistent kernel intensity estimator with unconstrained bandwidth matrix. We propose a smooth bootstrap for inhomogeneous spatial point processes. The consistency of the bootstrap mean integrated squared error (MISE) as an estimator of the MISE of the consistent kernel intensity estimator proves the validity of the resampling procedure. Finally, we propose a plug‐in bandwidth selection procedure based on the bootstrap MISE and compare its performance with several methods currently used through both as a simulation study and an application to the spatial pattern of wildfires registered in Galicia (Spain) during 2006.     

Parameter Estimation for Inhomogeneous Space‐Time Shot‐Noise Cox Point Processes

We consider the problem of parameter estimation for inhomogeneous space‐time shot‐noise Cox point processes. We explore the possibility of using a stepwise estimation method and dimensionality‐reducing techniques to estimate different parts of the model separately. We discuss the estimation method using projection processes and propose a refined method that avoids projection to the temporal domain. This remedies the main flaw of the method using projection processes – possible overlapping in the projection process of clusters, which are clearly separated in the original space‐time process. This issue is more prominent in the temporal projection process where the amount of information lost by projection is higher than in the spatial projection process. For the refined method, we derive consistency and asymptotic normality results under the increasing domain asymptotics and appropriate moment and mixing assumptions. We also present a simulation study that suggests that cluster overlapping is successfully overcome by the refined method.     

Non‐Parametric Change‐Point Tests for Long‐Range Dependent Data

Abstract. We propose a non‐parametric change‐point test for long‐range dependent data, which is based on the Wilcoxon two‐sample test. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis that no change occurred. In a simulation study, we compare the power of our test with the power of a test which is based on differences of means. The results of the simulation study show that in the case of Gaussian data, our test has only slightly smaller power minus.3pt than the ‘difference‐of‐means’ test. For heavy‐tailed data, our test outperforms the ‘difference‐of‐means’ test.     

Residual Analysis for Inhomogeneous Neyman–Scott Processes

Abstract. In this article, we introduce a residual analysis for inhomogeneous Neyman–Scott models based on Laplace functionals. Our simulation study shows that this residual analysis method has a good performance in assessing goodness‐of‐fit and revealing inadequacy of the fitted model. The method is employed in fitting a Thomas model to California redwood trees data and a Matérn model to the locations of hickory trees in Lansing woods, Michigan.     

Two‐Sample Test Against One‐Sided Alternatives

Abstract. This paper proposes, implements and investigates a new non‐parametric two‐sample test for detecting stochastic dominance. We pose the question of detecting the stochastic dominance in a non‐standard way. This is motivated by existing evidence showing that standard formulations and pertaining procedures may lead to serious errors in inference. The procedure that we introduce matches testing and model selection. More precisely, we reparametrize the testing problem in terms of Fourier coefficients of well‐known comparison densities. Next, the estimated Fourier coefficients are used to form a kind of signed smooth rank statistic. In such a setting, the number of Fourier coefficients incorporated into the statistic is a smoothing parameter. We determine this parameter via some flexible selection rule. We establish the asymptotic properties of the new test under null and alternative hypotheses. The finite sample performance of the new solution is demonstrated through Monte Carlo studies and an application to a set of survival times.     

On the Local Polynomial Estimators of the Counting Process Intensity Function and its Derivatives

Abstract. We consider the properties of the local polynomial estimators of a counting process intensity function and its derivatives. By expressing the local polynomial estimators in a kernel smoothing form via effective kernels, we show that the bias and variance of the estimators at boundary points are of the same magnitude as at interior points and therefore the local polynomial estimators in the context of intensity estimation also enjoy the automatic boundary correction property as they do in other contexts such as regression. The asymptotically optimal bandwidths and optimal kernel functions are obtained through the asymptotic expressions of the mean square error of the estimators. For practical purpose, we suggest an effective and easy‐to‐calculate data‐driven bandwidth selector. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the local polynomial estimators and the proposed bandwidth selector. The estimators and the bandwidth selector are applied to estimate the rate of aftershocks of the Sichuan earthquake and the rate of the Personal Emergency Link calls in Hong Kong.