Power Variations and Testing for Co‐Jumps: The Small Noise Approach

In this paper, we study the effects of noise on bipower variation, realized volatility (RV) and testing for co‐jumps in high‐frequency data under the small noise framework. We first establish asymptotic properties of bipower variation in this framework. In the presence of the small noise, RV is asymptotically biased, and the additional asymptotic conditional variance term appears in its limit distribution. We also propose consistent estimators for the asymptotic variances of RV. Second, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic proposed in (Ann. Stat. 37, 1792‐1838) under the presence of small noise for testing the presence of co‐jumps in a two‐dimensional Itô semimartingale. In contrast to the setting in (Ann. Stat. 37, 1792‐1838), we show that the additional asymptotic variance terms appear and propose consistent estimators for the asymptotic variances in order to make the test feasible. Simulation experiments show that our asymptotic results give reasonable approximations in the finite sample cases.     

An improved test of equality of mean directions for the Langevin‐von Mises‐Fisher distribution

A multi‐sample test for equality of mean directions is developed for populations having Langevin‐von Mises‐Fisher distributions with a common unknown concentration. The proposed test statistic is a monotone transformation of the likelihood ratio. The high‐concentration asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is derived. In contrast to previously suggested high‐concentration tests, the high‐concentration asymptotic approximation to the null distribution of the proposed test statistic is also valid for large sample sizes with any fixed nonzero concentration parameter. Simulations of size and power show that the proposed test outperforms competing tests. An example with three‐dimensional data from an anthropological study illustrates the practical application of the testing procedure.     

Efficient estimation in partially linear single‐index models for longitudinal data

In this paper, we consider the estimation of both the parameters and the nonparametric link function in partially linear single‐index models for longitudinal data that may be unbalanced. In particular, a new three‐stage approach is proposed to estimate the nonparametric link function using marginal kernel regression and the parametric components with generalized estimating equations. The resulting estimators properly account for the within‐subject correlation. We show that the parameter estimators are asymptotically semiparametrically efficient. We also show that the asymptotic variance of the link function estimator is minimized when the working error covariance matrices are correctly specified. The new estimators are more efficient than estimators in the existing literature. These asymptotic results are obtained without assuming normality. The finite‐sample performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulation studies. In addition, two real‐data examples are analyzed to illustrate the methodology.     

Kernel naive Bayes discrimination for high‐dimensional pattern recognition

Kernel discriminant analysis translates the original classification problem into feature space and solves the problem with dimension and sample size interchanged. In high‐dimension low sample size (HDLSS) settings, this reduces the ‘dimension’ to that of the sample size. For HDLSS two‐class problems we modify Mika's kernel Fisher discriminant function which – in general – remains ill‐posed even in a kernel setting; see Mika et al. (1999). We propose a kernel naive Bayes discriminant function and its smoothed version, using first‐ and second‐degree polynomial kernels. For fixed sample size and increasing dimension, we present asymptotic expressions for the kernel discriminant functions, discriminant directions and for the error probability of our kernel discriminant functions. The theoretical calculations are complemented by simulations which show the convergence of the estimators to the population quantities as the dimension grows. We illustrate the performance of the new discriminant rules, which are easy to implement, on real HDLSS data. For such data, our results clearly demonstrate the superior performance of the new discriminant rules, and especially their smoothed versions, over Mika's kernel Fisher version, and typically also over the commonly used naive Bayes discriminant rule.     

Non‐parametric Estimation of Extreme Risk Measures from Conditional Heavy‐tailed Distributions

In this paper, we introduce a new risk measure, the so‐called conditional tail moment. It is defined as the moment of order a ≥ 0 of the loss distribution above the upper α‐quantile where α ∈ (0,1). Estimating the conditional tail moment permits us to estimate all risk measures based on conditional moments such as conditional tail expectation, conditional value at risk or conditional tail variance. Here, we focus on the estimation of these risk measures in case of extreme losses (where α ↓0 is no longer fixed). It is moreover assumed that the loss distribution is heavy tailed and depends on a covariate. The estimation method thus combines non‐parametric kernel methods with extreme‐value statistics. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators is established, and their finite‐sample behaviour is illustrated both on simulated data and on a real data set of daily rainfalls.     

Shape Constrained Non‐parametric Estimators of the Baseline Distribution in Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Abstract. We investigate non‐parametric estimation of a monotone baseline hazard and a decreasing baseline density within the Cox model. Two estimators of a non‐decreasing baseline hazard function are proposed. We derive the non‐parametric maximum likelihood estimator and consider a Grenander type estimator, defined as the left‐hand slope of the greatest convex minorant of the Breslow estimator. We demonstrate that the two estimators are strongly consistent and asymptotically equivalent and derive their common limit distribution at a fixed point. Both estimators of a non‐increasing baseline hazard and their asymptotic properties are obtained in a similar manner. Furthermore, we introduce a Grenander type estimator for a non‐increasing baseline density, defined as the left‐hand slope of the least concave majorant of an estimator of the baseline cumulative distribution function, derived from the Breslow estimator. We show that this estimator is strongly consistent and derive its asymptotic distribution at a fixed point.     

Statistical Inference for High‐Dimensional Global Minimum Variance Portfolios

Many studies demonstrate that inference for the parameters arising in portfolio optimization often fails. The recent literature shows that this phenomenon is mainly due to a high‐dimensional asset universe. Typically, such a universe refers to the asymptotics that the sample size n + 1 and the sample dimension d both go to infinity while d ∕ n → c ∈ (0,1). In this paper, we analyze the estimators for the excess returns’ mean and variance, the weights and the Sharpe ratio of the global minimum variance portfolio under these asymptotics concerning consistency and asymptotic distribution. Problems for stating hypotheses in high dimension are also discussed. The applicability of the results is demonstrated by an empirical study. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CHANGE‐POINT DETECTION WITH RANK STATISTICS IN LONG‐MEMORY TIME‐SERIES MODELS

Wilcoxon‐type rank statistics are considered for testing a long‐memory time‐series model with a common distribution against the alternatives involving a change in the distribution at an unknown time point. The asymptotic properties of the test statistics and the change‐point estimators are studied. Finite‐sample behaviours are investigated in a small Monte Carlo simulation study. Data examples from hydrology and telecommunications illustrate the method.     

Uniform in bandwidth consistency for various kernel estimators involving functional data

The paper investigates various nonparametric models including regression, conditional distribution, conditional density and conditional hazard function, when the covariates are infinite dimensional. The main contribution is to prove uniform in bandwidth asymptotic results for kernel estimators of these functional operators. Then, the application issues, involving data-driven bandwidth selection, are discussed.     

Kernel‐based Generalized Cross‐validation in Non‐parametric Mixed‐effect Models

Abstract. Although generalized cross‐validation (GCV) has been frequently applied to select bandwidth when kernel methods are used to estimate non‐parametric mixed‐effect models in which non‐parametric mean functions are used to model covariate effects, and additive random effects are applied to account for overdispersion and correlation, the optimality of the GCV has not yet been explored. In this article, we construct a kernel estimator of the non‐parametric mean function. An equivalence between the kernel estimator and a weighted least square type estimator is provided, and the optimality of the GCV‐based bandwidth is investigated. The theoretical derivations also show that kernel‐based and spline‐based GCV give very similar asymptotic results. This provides us with a solid base to use kernel estimation for mixed‐effect models. Simulation studies are undertaken to investigate the empirical performance of the GCV. A real data example is analysed for illustration.     

Dependence Estimation for High‐frequency Sampled Multivariate CARMA Models

The paper considers high‐frequency sampled multivariate continuous‐time autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) models and derives the asymptotic behaviour of the sample autocovariance function to a normal random matrix. Moreover, we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the cross‐covariances between different components of the model. We will see that the limit distribution of the sample autocovariance function has a similar structure in the continuous‐time and in the discrete‐time model. As a special case, we consider a CARMA (one‐dimensional MCARMA) process. For a CARMA process, we prove Bartlett's formula for the sample autocorrelation function. Bartlett's formula has the same form in both models; only the sums in the discrete‐time model are exchanged by integrals in the continuous‐time model. Finally, we present limit results for multivariate MA processes as well, which are not known in this generality in the multivariate setting yet.     

Testing Monotonicity of Regression Functions – An Empirical Process Approach

We propose several new tests for monotonicity of regression functions based on different empirical processes of residuals and pseudo‐residuals. The residuals are obtained from an unconstrained kernel regression estimator whereas the pseudo‐residuals are obtained from an increasing regression estimator. Here, in particular, we consider a recently developed simple kernel‐based estimator for increasing regression functions based on increasing rearrangements of unconstrained non‐parametric estimators. The test statistics are estimated distance measures between the regression function and its increasing rearrangement. We discuss the asymptotic distributions, consistency and small sample performances of the tests.     

Estimation with right‐censored observations under a semi‐Markov model

The semi‐Markov process often provides a better framework than the classical Markov process for the analysis of events with multiple states. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we show that in the presence of right censoring, when the right end‐point of the support of the censoring time is strictly less than the right end‐point of the support of the semi‐Markov kernel, the transition probability of the semi‐Markov process is nonidentifiable, and the estimators proposed in the literature are inconsistent in general. We derive the set of all attainable values for the transition probability based on the censored data, and we propose a nonparametric inference procedure for the transition probability using this set. Second, the conventional approach to constructing confidence bands is not applicable for the semi‐Markov kernel and the sojourn time distribution. We propose new perturbation resampling methods to construct these confidence bands. Different weights and transformations are explored in the construction. We use simulation to examine our proposals and illustrate them with hospitalization data from a recent cancer survivor study. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 237–256; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Polynomial Histograms for Multivariate Density and Mode Estimation

Abstract. We consider the problem of efficiently estimating multivariate densities and their modes for moderate dimensions and an abundance of data. We propose polynomial histograms to solve this estimation problem. We present first‐ and second‐order polynomial histogram estimators for a general d‐dimensional setting. Our theoretical results include pointwise bias and variance of these estimators, their asymptotic mean integrated square error (AMISE), and optimal binwidth. The asymptotic performance of the first‐order estimator matches that of the kernel density estimator, while the second order has the faster rate of O(n^?6/(d+6)). For a bivariate normal setting, we present explicit expressions for the AMISE constants which show the much larger binwidths of the second order estimator and hence also more efficient computations of multivariate densities. We apply polynomial histogram estimators to real data from biotechnology and find the number and location of modes in such data.     

On the Local Polynomial Estimators of the Counting Process Intensity Function and its Derivatives

Abstract. We consider the properties of the local polynomial estimators of a counting process intensity function and its derivatives. By expressing the local polynomial estimators in a kernel smoothing form via effective kernels, we show that the bias and variance of the estimators at boundary points are of the same magnitude as at interior points and therefore the local polynomial estimators in the context of intensity estimation also enjoy the automatic boundary correction property as they do in other contexts such as regression. The asymptotically optimal bandwidths and optimal kernel functions are obtained through the asymptotic expressions of the mean square error of the estimators. For practical purpose, we suggest an effective and easy‐to‐calculate data‐driven bandwidth selector. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the local polynomial estimators and the proposed bandwidth selector. The estimators and the bandwidth selector are applied to estimate the rate of aftershocks of the Sichuan earthquake and the rate of the Personal Emergency Link calls in Hong Kong.     

HAZARD RATE ESTIMATION FOR CENSORED DATA BY WAVELET METHODS

ABSTRACT

We study the estimation of a hazard rate function based on censored data by non-linear wavelet method. We provide an asymptotic formula for the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of nonlinear wavelet-based hazard rate estimators under randomly censored data. We show this MISE formula, when the underlying hazard rate function and censoring distribution function are only piecewise smooth, has the same expansion as analogous kernel estimators, a feature not available for the kernel estimators. In addition, we establish an asymptotic normality of the nonlinear wavelet estimator.     

Relative risk regression for current status data in case‐cohort studies

We propose using the weighted likelihood method to fit a general relative risk regression model for the current status data with missing data as arise, for example, in case‐cohort studies. The missingness probability is either known or can be reasonably estimated. Asymptotic properties of the weighted likelihood estimators are established. For the case of using estimated weights, we construct a general theorem that guarantees the asymptotic normality of the M‐estimator of a finite dimensional parameter in a class of semiparametric models, where the infinite dimensional parameter is allowed to converge at a slower than parametric rate, and some other parameters in the objective function are estimated a priori. The weighted bootstrap method is employed to estimate the variances. Simulations show that the proposed method works well for finite sample sizes. A motivating example of the case‐cohort study from an HIV vaccine trial is used to demonstrate the proposed method. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 557–577; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

A Central Limit Theorem in Non‐parametric Regression with Truncated,Censored and Dependent Data

On the basis of the idea of the Nadaraya–Watson (NW) kernel smoother and the technique of the local linear (LL) smoother, we construct the NW and LL estimators of conditional mean functions and their derivatives for a left‐truncated and right‐censored model. The target function includes the regression function, the conditional moment and the conditional distribution function as special cases. It is assumed that the lifetime observations with covariates form a stationary α‐mixing sequence. Asymptotic normality of the estimators is established. Finite sample behaviour of the estimators is investigated via simulations. A real data illustration is included too.     

ERROR VARIANCE ESTIMATION FOR THE SINGLE‐INDEX MODEL

Single‐index models provide one way of reducing the dimension in regression analysis. The statistical literature has focused mainly on estimating the index coefficients, the mean function, and their asymptotic properties. For accurate statistical inference it is equally important to estimate the error variance of these models. We examine two estimators of the error variance in a single‐index model and compare them with a few competing estimators with respect to their corresponding asymptotic properties. Using a simulation study, we evaluate the finite‐sample performance of our estimators against their competitors.     

Improved log‐linear model estimators of abundance in capture‐recapture experiments

The authors review log‐linear models for estimating the size of a closed population and propose a new log‐linear estimator for experiments having between animal heterogeneity and a behavioral response. They give a general formula for evaluating the asymptotic biases of estimators of abundance derived from log‐linear models. They propose simple frequency modifications for reducing these asymptotic biases and investigate the modifications in a Monte Carlo experiment which reveals that they reduce both the bias and the mean squared error of abundance estimators.