Supporting individuals in group decision-making

Pooling of different resources is typical among the member countries of the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance participating in joint large-scale construction projects. The problem faced by the members of the Council is to decide, how much of various resources each country should contribute to a construction project. In this paper we present a general approach to supporting individuals involved in such negotiations. We formulate the problem as a multiple criteria/multiple decision-maker model and use our approach to finding a compromise solution for the resource pooling problem within the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance. The approach is implemented on a computer, tested and illustrated using a prototypical example.     

Super Majoritarianism and the Endowment Effect

The American and some other constitutions entrench property rights by requiring super majoritarian voting as a condition for amending or revoking their own provisions. Following Buchanan and Tullock [The Calculus of Consent, Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor), 1962], this paper analyzes individuals' interests behind a veil of ignorance, and shows that under some standard assumptions, a (simple) majoritarian rule should be adopted. This result changes if one assumes that preferences are consistent with the behavioral phenomenon known as the endowment effect. It then follows that (at least some) property rights are best defended by super majoritarian protection. The paper then shows that its theoretical results are consistent with a number of doctrines underlying American Constitutional Law.     

Reevaluating evidence on myopic loss aversion: aggregate patterns versus individual choices

Investors who are more willing to accept risks when evaluating their investments less frequently are said to exhibit myopic loss aversion (MLA). Several recent experimental studies found that, on average, subjects bet significantly higher amounts on a risky lottery when they observe only a cumulative outcome of several realizations of the lottery (long evaluation period). In this article, we reexamine these empirical findings by analyzing individual rather than aggregate choice patterns. The behavior of the majority of subjects is inconsistent with the hypothesis of MLA: they bet an intermediate fraction of their initial endowment and these bets, on average, are not significantly different across two treatments with short and long evaluation period. We discuss several alternative explanations of this finding, including the Fechner model of random errors and the financial asset pricing model.     

Research Review: Family group decision-making: a promising practice in need of more programme theory and research

The use of family group decision‐making (FGDM) in child protection is rapidly increasing throughout the world. This paper provides a brief overview of the research evidence from 1996 to 2005 and proposes future directions for both practice and research. The purpose of the review is to help move the discussion of FGDM from a promising practice to an evidence‐based practice. The research review considers what is known about the child welfare outcomes of FGDM. The paper then turns to research concerning which families are offered FGDM and which FGDM processes appear to be important. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for developing FGDM programmes that can improve child protection practice and then testing these specific programmes in rigorous trials.     

Individual vs. group decision-making: an experiment on dynamic choice under risk and ambiguity

This paper focuses on the comparison of individual and group decision-making, in a stochastic inter-temporal problem in two decision environments, namely risk and ambiguity. Using a consumption/saving laboratory experiment, we investigate behaviour in four treatments: (1) individual choice under risk; (2) group choice under risk; (3) individual choice under ambiguity and (4) group choice under ambiguity. Comparing decisions within and between decision environments, we find an anti-symmetric pattern. While individuals are choosing on average closer to the theoretical optimal predictions, compared to groups in the risk treatments, groups tend to deviate less under ambiguity. Within decision environments, individuals deviate more when they choose under ambiguity, while groups are better planners under ambiguity rather than under risk. Our results extend the often observed pattern of individuals (groups) behaving more optimally under risk (ambiguity), to its dynamic dimension.

     

Estimating individual and group preference functionals using experimental data

In this paper, the empirical performance of several preference functionals is assessed using individual and group experimental data. We investigate if there is a risky choice theory that fits group decisions better than alternative theories, and if there are significant differences between individual and group choices. Experimental findings reported in this paper provide answers to both of those questions showing that expected utility gains a “winning” position over higher-level functionals (we considered disappoint aversion and two variants of rank-dependent utility) when risky choices are undertaken by individuals as well as by small groups. However, in the group experiment, alternatives (and, most notably, disappoint aversion) improve their relative performance, a fact that hints at the existence of differences between individual and group choices. We interpreted this result as evidence that feelings-like disappointment aversion become stronger in group decision.     

The Endowment Effect on Academic Chores Trade-Off (ACTO)

The present study aimed to investigate three questions concerning Kahneman’s Endowment Effect. (a) Does the Endowment Effect apply to negotiations on intangible items such as intellectual resources and time invested in academic chores? (b) Does the sequence in which proposals are presented to the negotiators influence the Endowment Effect and, if so, how? (c) Does the Endowment Effect have the same impact in on-going negotiations as in one-shot negotiations? The investigation focused on the trade-off made by students between advanced courses and seminars, which we term as Academic Chores Trade-Off (ACTO). The results indicated the existence of the Endowment Effect in negotiations on the above intangible items (ACTO) but could also be partially interpreted as reflecting the negotiators attempts to improve their positions. The results also supported the existence of a Sequence Effect combined with an intensification of the Endowment Effect. The Endowment Effect in on-going negotiations was not found to be significantly different from that in the one-shot format.     

The Endowment Effect,Status Quo Bias and Loss Aversion: Rational Alternative Explanation

The endowment effect, status quo bias, and loss aversion are robust and well documented results from experimental psychology. They introduce a wedge between the prices at which one is willing to sell or buy a good. The objective of this paper is to address this wedge. We show that the presence of asymmetric information in a rational-agent framework can also account for the endowment effect, status quo bias and loss aversion without invoking psychology-based explanations proposed in the past.     

略论社会工作嵌入农村养老社会福利体系的意义效应

当代社会主体之间的行动强关联性致使行动意义效应日益＂凸显＂,社会工作嵌入农村养老社会福利体系本身就是一个多重意义赋予过程,本文从意义逻辑视角深刻剖析了这一过程中的三大行动图式：行动理念——情境迎合、行动对象——增权赋能、行动效果——秩序整合,旨在为建构农村养老社会工作服务体系进行意义铺陈和行动牵引。     

On the first-offer dilemma in bargaining and negotiations

Theory and Decision - In bargaining and negotiations, should one make the first offer or wait for the opponent to do so? Practitioners support the idea that moving first in bargaining is a mistake,...     

The use of analytical methods and tools in international negotiations: A practitioner's perspective

This paper presents a practitioner's perspective on the use of systematic analytical techniques to improve the practice of international negotiations, primarily in a multilateral context. A generic model of the negotiation process is presented and the utility of various analytical methodologies is evaluated against the component functions described by the model. Overall, analytical tools for negotiation support are viewed as most useful in the prenegotiation phase. Conclusions are based primarily on practical experience, not on theories of negotiation.     

Requests, refusals, and reasons in children's negotiations

Conflict situations were studied as indicators of children's socio-cognitive knowledge and the transmission of values in relation to negotiation. Concepts and paradigms from studies of requests were combined with those from studies of refusals. Puppets were used to create situations that varied (a) as to whether the child makes a request and encounters opposition (requests) or receives a request and offers opposition (refusals), (b) whether the adult offers or does not offer a reason. Children aged 3–5 years (Sample 1, N = 24; Sample 2, N = 24) were encouraged to make a series of attempts at resolving the conflict. Their responses were scored for the level of politeness or strategic skill shown. Request situations elicited higher levels of politeness and strategic skill than did refusal situations. In contrast to disputes in which the other party did not use reasons, the use of a reason by the other party elicited higher level strategies and, when the children were refusing, greater politeness. Some children were able to improve on their first attempt. The improvement was most marked when children were requesting and the adult gave a reason.     

Modelling curiosity in decision-making

This paper develops a model of choice with an agent that is capable of experiencing curiosity using Loewenstein’s (Psychol Bull 116(1):75–98, 1994) information gap interpretation of curiosity. We then proceed to determine the restrictions on choice behaviour implied by the model in two choice environments: no discovery—where the Decision-Maker does not have the opportunity to learn—and discovery—where she is afforded such an opportunity. These restrictions can be applied by an observer to determine if a Decision-Maker’s choices align with the model.     

日本养老保险制度变迁的经济福利效应分析

日本现行的养老保险制度已不适应宏观环境,特别是人口状况变化的要求,因此,日本面临着改革养老保险制度的难题。戴蒙德模型和6时期6世代交叠世代模型从理论上证明了现收现付制的缺陷以及由现收现付制转为基金制能够带来的福利的增加。从长期来看,在现行养老保险制度中减少现收现付部分的比例,提高具有积累部分的比重将是日本政府的必然选择。     

Social worker decision-making in court

The current study aimed to explore the factors that influence how social workers make decisions and develop their decision-making skills in care proceedings, and to identify effective support and intervention to develop social worker decision-making skills. The study employed a mixed thematic approach across two phases of study: an initial inductive thematic analysis of responses to an online qualitative questionnaire and then a mixed thematic analysis of follow-up focus groups and interviews with social workers working in various social work roles within England and Northern Ireland. The findings identified a number of themes that help to understand the decision-making skills of social workers; thorough assessment skills, relationship-based anti-oppressive practice, being mindful of the lived experience of the child and using critical reflection to make complex decisions. Wider structural factors that support or hinder decision-making, particularly in respect of organizational support and management supervision were also identified. Social workers can be supported to develop decision-making skills through additional training, reflective learning and management support to develop their practice wisdom within this field.     

My life in care: experiences of non-participation in decision-making processes

The extent to which young people are involved in legal decision‐making depends on assumptions and perceptions about their ability to participate in decision‐making in general. This paper draws on research with four young people, looking at their experiences of involvement in a variety of decision‐making processes whilst in the care of the local authority. Through narratives, games and other activities, the thoughts and emotions of the four young people are explored, identifying the development of feelings of helplessness, low self‐esteem and poor confidence that have followed the lack of opportunities made available to them to make decisions about their own lives. The efficacy and tension of corporate parenting is also explored with suggestions from the participants on how the care system could be constructed differently to facilitate their voice and that of much younger children than themselves. Thus, the debate becomes one of adult ability and preparedness to involve young people in decisions about their own lives, rather than whether they are able to participate effectively.     

Strategic ambiguity and decision-making: an experimental study

We conducted a set of experiments to compare the effect of ambiguity in single-person decisions and games. Our results suggest that ambiguity has a bigger impact in games than in ball and urn problems. We find that ambiguity has the opposite effect in games of strategic substitutes and complements. This confirms a theoretical prediction made by Eichberger and Kelsey (J Econ Theory 106:436–466, 2002). In addition, we note that subjects’ ambiguity attitudes appear to be context dependent: ambiguity loving in single-person decisions and ambiguity averse in games. This is consistent with the findings of Kelsey and le Roux (Theory Decis 79:667–688, 2015).     

Ultimatum decision-making: A test of reciprocal kindness

While fairness is often mentioned as a determinant of ultimatum bargaining behavior, few data sets are available that can test theories that incorporate fairness considerations. This paper tests the reciprocal kindness theory in Rabin (1993 Incorporating fairness into game theory and economics, The American Economic Review 83: 1281-1302) as an application to the one-period ultimatum bargaining game. We report on data from 100 ultimatum games that vary the financial stakes of the game from $1 to $15. Responder behavior is strongly in support of the kindness theory and proposer behavior weakly in support of it. Offer percentages and past offers influence behavior the most, whereas the size of the pie has a marginally significant effect on offer percentages. The data is more in support of reciprocal kindness than alternative theories of equal-split or learning behavior, although the data also weakly support a minimum percentage threshold hypothesis. As a whole, our results together with existing studies suggest that, for smaller stakes games, fairness considerations dominate monetary considerations. This has implications for more complicated naturally occurring bargaining environments in which the financial stakes can vary widely.     

我国养老服务事业发展评估研究

进入改革开放以来,我国政府相继出台了一系列养老服务政策,正在各个领域贯彻实施。但是,其推进的效果如何?本文就养老服务政策法规体系、养老服务机构体系、养老服务模式进行了评估。