Comparing more than one treatment to more than one control in incomplete blocks

The class of balanced treatment incomplete block designs is generalized to allow for comparison of v₁ test treatments and v₂ control treatments. The generalized class is equivalent to the class of balanced bipartite block designs considered by Jaggi, Gupta, and Parsad. Some results on design construction and A-optimality are given for small values of v₁ and v₂. Algorithms are developed for computing simultaneous confidence bounds for all test treatment versus control contrasts.     

Bayesian testing of an exponential point null hypothesis

The problem of testing a point null hypothesis involving an exponential mean is The problem of testing a point null hypothesis involving an exponential mean is usual interpretation of P-values as evidence against precise hypotheses is faulty. As in Berger and Delampady (1986) and Berger and Sellke (1987), lower bounds on Bayesian measures of evidence over wide classes of priors are found emphasizing the conflict between posterior probabilities and P-values. A hierarchical Bayes approach is also considered as an alternative to computing lower bounds and “automatic” Bayesian significance tests which further illustrates the point that P-values are highly misleading measures of evidence for tests of point null hypotheses.     

Probabilistic existence theorems in group testing

For a wide range of combinatorial group testing problems including additive, binary and multiaccess channel models, a probabilistic method is developed to derive upper bounds for the length of optimal nonsequential designs. A general result is proven allowing in many particular cases to compute the asymptotic bounds. The existence theorems are also derived for the situation when several errors in the test results can occur (searching with lies) and for the group testing problem in the binomial sample.     

Bayesian Causality

Abstract

Although no universally accepted definition of causality exists, in practice one is often faced with the question of statistically assessing causal relationships in different settings. We present a uniform general approach to causality problems derived from the axiomatic foundations of the Bayesian statistical framework. In this approach, causality statements are viewed as hypotheses, or models, about the world and the fundamental object to be computed is the posterior distribution of the causal hypotheses, given the data and the background knowledge. Computation of the posterior, illustrated here in simple examples, may involve complex probabilistic modeling but this is no different than in any other Bayesian modeling situation. The main advantage of the approach is its connection to the axiomatic foundations of the Bayesian framework, and the general uniformity with which it can be applied to a variety of causality settings, ranging from specific to general cases, or from causes of effects to effects of causes.     

On Bayesian estimators in multistage binomial designs

A new class of Bayesian estimators for a proportion in multistage binomial designs is considered. Priors belong to the beta-J distribution family, which is derived from the Fisher information associated with the design. The transposition of the beta parameters of the Haldane and the uniform priors in fixed binomial experiments into the beta-J distribution yields bias-corrected versions of these priors in multistage designs. We show that the estimator of the posterior mean based on the corrected Haldane prior and the estimator of the posterior mode based on the corrected uniform prior have good frequentist properties. An easy-to-use approximation of the estimator of the posterior mode is provided. The new Bayesian estimators are compared to Whitehead's and the uniformly minimum variance estimators through several multistage designs. Last, the bias of the estimator of the posterior mode is derived for a particular case.     

Inferences on the coefficient of variation of an inverse gaussian distribution

The likelihood ratio test for a characteristic parameter of the inverse Gaussian distribution is derived. The parameter of interest characterizes the coefficient of variation, the skewness and the kurtosis of the distribution. The distribution of the test statistic is presented in a simplified form. Useful quanfiles of the distribution are given. Methods for constructing confidence bounds for the parameter, including Bayes highest posterior density intervals, are considered.     

UPPER BOUNDS FOR EFFICIENCY FACTORS IN BLOCK DESIGNS

Upper bounds are derived for efficiency factors in block designs with particular types of variety or block concurrence matrices. These bounds compare favorably with existing upper bounds.     

Goodness-of-fit Tests Based on the Kernel Density Estimator

Abstract.  Given an i.i.d. sample drawn from a density f on the real line, the problem of testing whether f is in a given class of densities is considered. Testing procedures constructed on the basis of minimizing the L ₁-distance between a kernel density estimate and any density in the hypothesized class are investigated. General non-asymptotic bounds are derived for the power of the test. It is shown that the concentration of the data-dependent smoothing factor and the 'size' of the hypothesized class of densities play a key role in the performance of the test. Consistency and non-asymptotic performance bounds are established in several special cases, including testing simple hypotheses, translation/scale classes and symmetry. Simulations are also carried out to compare the behaviour of the method with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and an L ₂ density-based approach due to Fan [ Econ. Theory 10 (1994) 316].     

Testing equality of regression coefficients in heteroscedastic normal regression models

This article addresses the problem of testing whether the vectors of regression coefficients are equal for two independent normal regression models when the error variances are unknown. This problem poses severe difficulties both to the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference. In the former approach, normal hypothesis testing theory does not apply because of the unrelated variances. In the latter, the prior distributions typically used for the parameters are improper and hence the Bayes factor-based solution cannot be used.We propose a Bayesian solution to this problem in which no subjective input is considered. We first generate “objective” proper prior distributions (intrinsic priors) for which the Bayes factor and model posterior probabilities are well defined. The posterior probability of each model is used as a model selection tool. This consistent procedure of testing hypotheses is compared with some of the frequentist approximate tests proposed in the literature.     

Bayesian infermce about the reliability function foe the exponential distributions

The posterior distributions and the posterior bounds of the reliability functions have been derived for the one and twoparameter exponential distributions. Using Grubbs' (1971) data the posteriors are tabulated and plotted and their robustness studied     

Characterization of certain incomplete block designs

It is shown that certain inequalities known for partially balanced incomplete block (PBIB) designs remain valid for general incomplete block designs. Some conditions for attaining their bounds are also given. Furthermore, the various types of PBIB designs are characterized by relating blocks of designs with association schemes. The approach here is based on the spectral expansion of NN' for the incidence matrix N of an incomplete block design.     

Equivalence Tests Can Enhance Environmental Science and Management

Tests of point hypotheses are common in observational environmental studies, but there is concern about their appropriateness. Exhortations to restrict sample sizes on the basis of a power analysis for such tests may fail to satisfy the environmental professional, because sample sizes are not always easily controlled. Testing of interval hypotheses via equiva-lence test procedures offers a way of testing meaningful hypotheses and of giving effect to the precautionary principle. An example is given which concerns mining impacts on stream benthic invertebrate communities, and includes calculation of Bayesian posterior probabilities.     

Bayes A-optimal designs for comparing test treatments with a control

The problem of comparing v test treatments simultaneously with a control treatment when k, v ⩾ 3 is considered. Following the work of Majumdar (1992), we use exact design theory to derive Bayes A-optimal block designs and optimal Г-minimax designs for a more general prior assumption for the one-way elimination of heterogeneity model. Examples of robust optimal designs, highly efficient designs, and the comparisons of the approximate optimal designs that are derived by our methods and by some other existing rounding-off schemes when using Owen's procedure are also provided.     

On maximum likelihood estimation of the binomial parameter n

This paper gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a finite conditional maximum-likelihood estimate for the binomial parameter n. Upper bounds for the conditional and beta-binomial maximum-likelihood estimators are derived. An example is given to show that the conditional likelihood function and the beta-binomial likelihood function may not be unimodal.     

D-optimal block designs with at most six varieties

For given positive integers v, b, and k (all of them ≥2) a block design is a k × b array of the variety labels 1,…,v with blocks as columns. For the usual one-way heterogeneity model in standard form the problem is studied of finding a D-optimal block design for estimating the variety contrasts, when no balanced block design (BBD) exists. The paper presents solutions to this problem for v≤6. The results on D-optimality are derived from a graph-theoretic context. Block designs can be considered as multigraphs, and a block design is D-optimal iff its multigraph has greatest complexity (=number of spanning trees).     

On properties of efficiency-balanced designs

We consider a class of efficiency-balanced block designs which are design patterns for the analytical simplification of statistical analysis. This paper consists of eight sections which investigate various problems (such as, bounds on parameters, characterizations, existence and nonexistence, and dual designs) for efficiency-balanced block designs.     

On Stein's method, smoothing estimates in total variation distance and mixture distributions

In many settings it is useful to have bounds on the total variation distance between some random variable Z and its shifted version Z+1. For example, such quantities are often needed when applying Stein's method for probability approximation. This note considers one way in which such bounds can be derived, in cases where Z is either the equilibrium distribution of some birth-death process or the mixture of such a distribution. Applications of these bounds are given to translated Poisson and compound Poisson approximations for Poisson mixtures and the Pólya distribution.     

Optimal designs for covariates’ models

A linear model with one treatment at V levels and first order regression on K continuous covariates with values on a K-cube is considered. The D-criterion is used to judge the ‘goodness’ of any design for estimating the parameters of this model. Since this criterion is based on the determinant of the information matrix M(d) of a design d, upper bounds for |M(d)| yield lower bounds for the D-efficiency of any design d in estimating the vector of parameters in the model. We consider here only classes of designs d for which the number N of observations to be taken is a multiple of V, that is, there exists R≥2 such that N=V×R.Under these conditions, we determine the maximum of |M(d)|, and conditions under which the maximum is attained. These conditions include R being even, each treatment level being observed the same number of times, that is, R times, and N being a multiple of four. For the other cases of congruence of N (modulo 4) we further determine upper bounds on |M (d)| for equireplicated designs, i.e. for designs with equal number of observations per treatment level. These upper bounds are shown to depend also on the congruence of V (modulo 4). For some triples (N,V,K), the upper bounds determined are shown to be attained.Construction methods yielding families of designs which attain the upper bounds of |M(d)| are presented, for each of the sixteen cases of congruence of N and V.We also determine the upper bound for D-optimal designs for estimating only the treatment parameters, when first order regression on one continuous covariate is present.     

Detecting change in a hazard regression model with right-censoring

The hazard function plays an important role in survival analysis and reliability, since it quantifies the instantaneous failure rate of an individual at a given time point t, given that this individual has not failed before t. In some applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed, and it is of interest to detect the location of such a change. In this paper, we consider testing of existence of a change in the parameters of an exponential regression model, based on a sample of right-censored survival times and the corresponding covariates. Likelihood ratio type tests are proposed and non-asymptotic bounds for the type II error probability are obtained. When the tests lead to acceptance of a change, estimators for the location of the change are proposed. Non-asymptotic upper bounds of the underestimation and overestimation probabilities are obtained. A short simulation study illustrates these results.     

General upper bound for the number of blocks having a given number of treatments common with a given block

The purpose of this paper is systematically to derive the general upper bound for the number of blocks having a given number of treatments common with a given block of certain incomplete block designs. The approach adopted here is based on the spectral decomposition of N′N for the incidence matrix N of a design, where N' is the transpose of the matrix N. This approach will lead us to upper bounds for incomplete block designs, in particular for a large number of partially balanced incomplete block (PBIB) designs, which are not covered with the standard approach (Shah 1964, 1966), Kapadia (1966)) of using well known relations between blocks of the designs and their association schemes. Several results concerning block structure of block designs are also derived from the main theorem. Finally, further generalizations of the main theorem are discussed with some illustrations.