发展服务贸易的思考:问题及其路径选择

货物贸易与服务贸易一直存在着"长短腿"尴尬,如何抓住新一轮国际产业转移的战略机遇,促进服务贸易快速发展,实现货物贸易和服务贸易的协调发展,是我国参与国际分工、提高国际竞争力的重要举措。基于和谐视角,提出应从调整产业结构、政府政策扶持、加快服务贸易人才培养、拓展服务外包寻求服务贸易突破口、实施服务贸易品牌策略、完善政策法规等方面发展服务贸易的相关制度安排。     

论东北地区外贸发展方式创新

外贸发展方式创新,是我国"十二五"时期经济发展方式转变的重大而关键的任务。长期以来,东北地区外贸发展主要依据传统的比较优势理论,以出口数量扩张、劳动密集型产品出口和低价格战略形成竞争优势。目前,面临后金融危机影响,全球经济增长乏力、大宗商品价格高企、资源环境压力加大、出口难度增加,更显露出其粗放性和难以持续性。东北地区外贸发展亟待打破原有传统贸易理论束缚,创新外贸发展方式,即从扩大出口创汇转向提高经济效益上来,从粗放式增长转向集约式增长上来,从出口创汇型转向依靠国际化经营能力上来。要遵循国际贸易规则,创新对外贸易制度安排;发挥东北地区优势,开拓多元化国际市场;优化出口产品结构,积极引导产业升级;加强与周边国家和地区的合作,促进外贸经济协调发展;集合各方力量,积极应对贸易摩擦。     

WTO贸易政策对中国林产品贸易政策的影响

以世界贸易组织原则为核心的国际贸易政策越来越多地影响着各种贸易行为和贸易政策制定。林产品贸易是一个国家国际贸易总和的一部分 ,对许多发展中国家来说 ,林产品的进出口蕴藏着极有经济价值的潜能并将为其服务。为适应多边自由贸易体制 ,阐述了WTO贸易政策的一般规范与扩展 ,分析了其对中国林产品贸易政策的影响以及我国林产品贸易面对WTO的贸易政策所应采取的战略对策。     

Multilateralism under threat: Causes,impact, and the policy debate on government intervention in trade

Several forces fostered trade liberalization since the end of World War II. Production and trade interacted quite favorably during the period. In the past quarter century real income in the OECD economies grew at almost 4% yearly, while the volume of export increased by almost 7 percent. However, in the first half of the 1980s, the chemistry of the situation seems to have changed as protectionist tendencies developed almost everywhere in the world. The very same multilateral nature of the world trading system is under threat, as illiberal discriminatory practices are being implemented bilaterally and, even more often, unilaterally. What are the forces at play to increase the pressure towards government intervention in trade? The paper reviews (i) macroeconomic issues and policy situations, as well as (ii) structural issues concerning the working of the economic systems of industrial countries. The pressure for trade intervention in the U.S. is addressed separately with respect to Europe, given the structural and cyclical differences between the two economies The case of Japan is dealt with with reference to the alleged interrelation between Japan's international competitiveness and its macroeconomic policies. Matters of more direct concern to the LDCs are covered at the end of the paper, with emphasis placed on the restructuring process under way in response to, and as a consequence of, the external debt. The paper ends with a recommendation to all countries to make efforts to preserve and strengthen the multilateral and liberal foundations of the international trading system.     

国际贸易的文化解读

文化是国际贸易中的重要内生要素,把握国际贸易需要从文化视角进行解读。商品是价值、使用价值和文化价值的统一体,国际贸易实质上也是商品文化价值的交换过程;文化差异是国际贸易产生的重要根源和依据;文化比较优势是推动国际贸易的增长和发展的现实动力。这一研究为我国新时期国际贸易的发展提供了新的视角和新的启示。     

The Meaning of Globalization for Development Policy

The Secretary of State for International Development reviews the Government's development strategy. The core commitment is to help mobilize the international political will to meet the aims of the UN international poverty eradication strategy. This will require resource transfers in the form of aid as investment, if the poorest countries are to be enabled to develop more trade and become part of the global economy. Globalization increases wealth creation, yet there is a danger that some countries could become marginalized from the world economy. To avoid this, developing countries must become full participants on the global economic stage, shaping and influencing the global rules in line with their interests and needs. There are three key challenges at the top of the Government's agenda: (1) the mainstreaming of development issues in the formation of UK and EU policy, (2) encouragement and active support for the efforts of developing countries themselves to become active players on the world economic stage, (3) the building of partnerships to make this happen—with governments, with global economic institutions, with the business sector, with donors and with NGOs. Globalization is characterized by the pace of technological change, the emergence of a more sophisticated system of global economic rules—with the World Trade Organization now at centre stage alongside the IMF and the World Bank—and the increasingly important role of multinational companies. Responding to globalization is not an optional extra. The old models of development need to be rethought. The Department for International Development has a key role to play in this, by ensuring that policy-makers in the UK, within the EU and internationally take full account of development aspects from the outset.     

Empirical aspects of protectionism: LINK results

General aspects of protectionism as they are revealed or treated in the LINK system are discussed in this paper. Attention is focused on the macroeconomic aspects of protection, about which relatively little is known: most of the vast body of knowledge on this subject concerns the microeconomic aspects of protection. Some simulations of trade liberalization (opposite of protectionism) and of protection within the context of the LINK system are reported. A movement away from protection would benefit the present world economy but not by a large enough extent to deal effectively with pressing international economic problems; therefore, trade liberalization within the context of a larger program of coordination policy among major industrial countries is examined. Finally, the relationship between protectionism and inflation is explored.     

United States trade and possible restrictions in high-technology products

This paper assesses the changing U.S. competitive position in high-technology products, and examines reasons for changes. It then inquires into the potential value of restrictive trade policies for promoting the U.S. interest in this sector, including mutual restrictions between the U.S., the EC, and Japan. The paper shows that the U.S. market share in most high-technology products, while still high, is declining. While industrial policy in other countries may have been a facilitating factor in this adverse development, the main explanation appears to lie in changing factor endowments, particularly the marked increase in the human capital/labor endowment ratios of Japan and Germany relative to that of the United States. When considering all the criteria relevant to trade policy, the differences between the high-technology industries bring into question the validity of lumping them into one sector for the purpose of strategic trade policy. Each industry needs to be treated separately. Their main common characteristic is intensity in human capital input. When they are viewed as one sector, a move to redress the declining U.S. lead calls for a domestic rather than a trade policy: massive U.S. investment in human capital and in research and development of the post-sputnik variety.     

TBT的贸易效应及我国的应对措施

国际贸易中的技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)倾向越来越强,制约了我国利用国际市场的深度和广度,使我国贸易条件趋向恶化,贸易得益减少。应采取提高国民技术经济意识,完善与国际接轨的技术标准体系,强化技术创新体系,提升产业结构等一系列宏观、微观措施来促进我国外贸的健康发展。     

CAFTA框架下旅游产业对接对广西旅游业发展的研究

基于中国广西—东盟国际旅游服务贸易的现状,对CAFTA旅游产业对接的成因进行分析,基本结论是:中国广西—东盟旅游产业对接和旅游产业集聚所产生的外溢效应是CAFTA建设进程中的必然趋势,而产业对接所产生的规模经济效应将是促进中国广西—东盟国际旅游服务贸易合作的重要因素。     

Pension Reform and International Organizations: From Conflict to Convergence

Analysis of pension schemes and recommendations for their reform have been one of the main items on the agenda of international organizations in recent years. However, the ideas and recommendations of the various organizationsinvolved in pension policy sometimes vary considerably. This paper will explore and compare the ideas on pension policy held by the International Labour Office, the International Social Security Association, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Although, initially, the discussion of pension reform was characterized by fierce debate with a marked ideological bent, all the participants are now aiming at mutual understanding and, in particular, coordination and cooperation in member States and recipient countries. The previous, dogmatic approach has given way to a predominantly pragmatic position.     

An international trade model to capture linkages among supply-constrained economies

The development of a country's domestic and international markets depends on its own actions as much as on those of its trading partners. The study of market linkages is thus vital for policy making. Borrowing from the conceptual framework of Leontief's input-output analysis and from the national accounts equation, this paper presents a new model to calculate multilateral trade multipliers while minimizing data requirements. The novelty of the approach consists in the column-wise (supply-oriented) normalization of trade as opposed to the row-wise (demand-oriented) normalization that prevails in the literature. The explanatory power of the model has been successfully tested on data that refer to 1973–1974. Divergence from reality inevitably reflects the great fluidity that characterized trade during that period. Although most successful when applied to trade among supply-oriented economies (such as those of socialist or developing countries), at present empirical tests have been run only for a handful of OECD and OPEC countries.     

发挥边界经济地理正效应 拓展创新中越边境贸易

边界是主权国家领土分界线。国际贸易的边界效应有屏障和中介两个相反且可以相互转化的方面。边界对双方经济交往的促进作用称为正效应。自贸区建设的深入,中越两国经济的快速发展,以及特殊的边境人文、族缘等关系为中越边境充分发挥边界的正效应奠定了良好的基础。但是,目前中越边境贸易存在着规模小,缺乏相关产业链依托等问题。应通过推动口岸经济区,建设大口岸,加强边境政府及相关部门服务,建立中越边境省份省长会议机制等措施,拓展创新中越边境贸易。     

Trade and innovation policies: Coexistence and spillovers

The debate over trade’s role in growth and inequality in recent years seems to center on the question of whether the gains from trade are worth the disruption from necessary adjustments. In particular static gains from trade for advanced economies are generally estimated to be small, while empirical evidence around growing employment and inequality challenges suggest trade’s role may be larger than previously thought, though still only one of many contributing factors. The focus on static gains though likely understates substantially the dynamic gains, as trade’s role in spurring faster economic growth, in both developed and developing countries through competitive and innovative forces. The dynamic, competition and innovation angle suggests a need for industrial policies to be revisited and examine how spillovers play out in the global economy. At the same time significant technological disruption is occurring through digital technology, big data, and machine learning/AI techniques that often require advanced capabilities and have significant competition implications. In recent COVID-19 pandemic policy responses governments have dramatically increased spending and liquidity to support stressed firms and households and encouraged many countries to consider strategic efforts to build certain domestic capabilities with the aim of reducing dependence on trade for emergency related goods and services. This paper provides insights on the specific role of innovation policies, and they differ from and are similar to traditional industrial policies, and what that might mean for future trade rules.     

ANT理论视角下的绿色气候基金组建进程及其对中国的启示

行动者网络理论主要分析人类行动者与非人类行动者之间相互博弈而动态构建的异质网络过程。在绿色气候基金组建过程中,各方通过博弈,或用本国语言来表达别国利益,或成功转译别国利益,或本国利益被他国转译,体现了行动者网络中各行动者为达成整体目标利益而进行的复杂协调,从而维护整个联盟的凝聚力和向心力,这恰恰是转译模型所要解决的核心问题。以转译模型为基础,各方达成共识,完成利益转译,实现联盟内部行动者之间的协商与妥协,同时积极寻求客观公正且富有社会和政治激情的联盟代言人或代言团体,正是绿色气候基金各成员国亟待解决的问题。中国要在未来的国际气候谈判中占据优势地位,就必须技巧性地转译别国利益,尽可能多地吸纳同盟者,并设法成为全球气候变化的网络代言人。     

Prospects for trade in manufactured goods between industrial and developing countries, 1978–1990

This paper examines prospective changes in trade in manufactured goods between the industrial and the developing countries. Assuming the continuation of the policies followed by the industrial countries, it is projected that the manufactured imports of these countries from the developing countries would rise at an average annual rate of 12.5% between 1978 and 1980 while their manufactured exports would increase 9 7% a year. Nonetheless, the export surplus of the industrial countries in trade in manufactured goods would rise, contributing to the growth of industrial output. The expansion of their exports of manufactured goods would also contribute to economic growth in the developing countries, and both groups of countries would benefit from specialization according to comparative advantage.     

Game-modeling multilateral trade negotiations

Using actual trade and tariff data for the United States and the European Community, this paper demonstrates how a trade negotiation such as the Tokyo Round can be modeled as a game among countries attempting to minimize individual welfare loss functions. First, we construct welfare functions based on suggested trade negotiation goals. We compute both the noncooperative Nash-Cournot equilibrium tariffs and the cooperative Nash equilibrium implied by these welfare functions. Welfare outcomes under the computed equilibrium tariffs are then compared with those arising from the initial tariff structure, as well as the tariff structure actually determined by the negotiation. We find that, while the game model tracks closely the decisions of the negotiators in the Tokyo Round, later unilateral political decisions resulted in less optimal tariffs.     

Regulating product markets: a growing challenge for open economies – with special references to agro-food product markets

In the present phase of internationalisation, processes of social construction of product markets are under stress. On one hand, the internationalisation of production processes gives more room for manoeuvre to the producers. On the other hand, the development of scientific technologies, embedded with new risks and uncertainties, makes it difficult to control the quality of products and production processes. The drive for competitiveness in a world where only free trade arguments seem to be heard limits the willingness of individual countries to take action. International institutions have been unable to launch the international co-ordination that could have helped countries to get out of this deadlock, though they need to fight climate change and pollution as well as the pressing new environmental hazards, which are illustrated with the case of the agro-food product markets in Europe. They should foster international processes of social construction of product markets to learn how to strike a better balance between free trade and safe trade principles before it is too late.     

对农产品突破绿色壁垒的几点思考

我国农产品出口屡屡受阻 ,西方发达国家实施绿色壁垒是外因 ,我国农产品质量不达标是内因。绿色壁垒的实质是变相的贸易保护。突破绿色壁垒应采取的对策为 :积极研究和采用国际标准、国外先进标准 ,完善检测检验体系和认证体系并与国际接轨 ,推进农村合作经济组织的发展 ,加强技术开发与推广 ,提高政府谈判能力和各方联合抗辩能力。     

中国转型期边境对外贸易发展对策研究

边境对外贸易作为国际贸易的一种形式,既具有国际贸易中商品及服务的跨国互换性,又具备比国际贸易更为严格的地缘性。它是毗邻国家间特有的一种对外经济交往形式,对促进一国经济发展和国际间往来均具有十分重要的作用,且这种作用并未随着信息时代"地球村"的出现而减小。恰恰相反,边境对外贸易正在与新的区域间交往和合作方式结合在一起,发挥着更大的作用。在对中国边境对外贸易发展历程和现状进行归纳和剖析基础上,针对中国经济转型期要求和新的国际形势,提出相应的政策建议,对促进中国边境对外贸易更好更快发展具有重大的现实意义。