Regional differences in marital fertility in the Netherlands in the second half of the nineteenth century

Abstract In the Netherlands, as in other countries, substantial regional differences in the birth rate have always been the rule rather than the exception. Of course, differences in crude birth rates may be attributed to a number of possible reasons, not all of them of primary demographic interest. For instance, according to the census of 31st December 1899, the number of women per 1,000 men in the province of Drenthe was only 924; in the province of Zuidholland the corresponding number was 1,073. It is clear that, ceteris paribus, the crude birth rate in Zuidholland would be about 7% higher than in Drenthe at that time. In such a case, the difference could reflect differences in economic development or job opportunities, factors not devoid of demographic significance, but only indirectly so.     

Why the rise in adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic in the 1990s?

Despite concern over high pregnancy rates and levels of risk for sexually transmittedinfections, adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic have not changed substantially since the early 1980's, and actually increased during the early to mid 1990s. The present study was undertaken to assess the factors contributing to the recent rise in fertility among Dominican adolescents. The findings suggest that although contraceptive use among adolescents and young adults has increased, this has been more than offset by ominous trends on other determinants of fertility. Among these are declines in mean age at first sex and first marriage/union without a commensurate decline in mean age at first contraceptive use, and stubbornly high discontinuation rates for oral contraceptives andcondoms. There is also some evidence that rates of induced abortion among adolescents may have increased, without which adolescent fertility rates would have been even higher. Demand for children among Dominican adolescents remains strong, suggesting that efforts to reduce the current high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors need to influence social norms in order to be successful.     

乡-城转移人口的生育率水平问题

乡一城人口转移作为城市化过程,总体上有利于生育率下降或低生育水平的稳定。但是,由于乡一城转移人口的生育率水平具有既不同于城也有别于乡的差别特征,因此这种转移对城乡生育率的变化必然产生一定的差别效应。通常认为,乡一城转移人口的生育率水平介于城乡之间,即低于乡而高于城。但是,有关研究认为,我国乡一城迁移流动人口的生育率水平已经转变为低于城市。对此,很值得进一步深入探讨。本文首先分析我国城乡生育率的变化和区域差异,然后对乡一城转移人口的总和生育率进行尝试性的推算,最后聚焦讨论流动人口生育行为的流动性问题。     

经济较发达地区农村空巢老人的养老问题——以浙江农村为例

本文通过对现阶段浙江农村空巢家庭类型及成因的分析,比较了农村空巢家庭与传统同已婚子女一起生活老年人生活质量的差异,认为空巢老人家庭生活质量不仅低于农村人口的平均生活水平,也低于传统同子女一起生活的老人,并对如何解决农村养老问题提出了对策建议。     

Social Reporting in the 1970s and in the 1990s

In this paper I give an account of the major welfare conceptsand social reporting concepts of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Inconclusion I discuss possibilities and limits of social reporting today.Quality of life and qualitative growth were the welfare programs of the1970s. The next decade saw a trend to individualization, subjectivewell-being and plurality of life styles. In the last decade the qualityof society once more came into the forefront in concepts likesustainable development, human development and social capital. From thefar-reaching program of the social indicators movement socialreports are the most visible results in many countries whereas ambitiousplans like national goals accounting failed. In the 1980s we watched akind of dissolution by diffusion and in the 1990s a revival inseveral fields. Overall, the monitoring and enlightenment function stillis the most important contribution of social reporting but today on ahigher level of data, methods and international comparisons.     

Keeping the ball in the air: contact in long-distance friendships

As people continue to be more mobile, maintenance behaviors for long-distance friendships will continue to be a part of the relocation experience. In this qualitative study, 25 women age 45 and over, who had relocated a number of times, were asked to talk about how their friendships had transitioned to being long-distance relationships and what current maintenance behaviors entailed. Communication was a major theme involving electronic mail (e-mail), Christmas cards, telephone calls, and visits. Results from the current study suggest that maintaining the perception of the existence of a well-connected social support system could be accomplished with a single, annual contact. Further, the long-distance friendship biographies explored in this study provided characteristics of friendship maintenance behavior that could be grouped into three main categories forming a proposed typology of long-distance friendship maintenance.     

Keeping the Ball in the Air: Contact in Long-Distance Friendships

ABSTRACT

As people continue to be more mobile, maintenance behaviors for long-distance friendships will continue to be a part of the relocation experience. In this qualitative study, 25 women age 45 and over, who had relocated a number of times, were asked to talk about how their friendships had transitioned to being long-distance relationships and what current maintenance behaviors entailed. Communication was a major theme involving electronic mail (e-mail), Christmas cards, telephone calls, and visits. Results from the current study suggest that maintaining the perception of the existence of a well-connected social support system could be accomplished with a single, annual contact. Further, the long-distance friendship biographies explored in this study provided characteristics of friendship maintenance behavior that could be grouped into three main categories forming a proposed typology of long-distance friendship maintenance.     

关于京津沪超低生育率中外来人口分母效应的检验

本文质疑梁秋生论文中控制外来流入人口以后京津沪大城市总和生育率均高于 1 0的推算结果 ,并根据全国第五次人口普查 1‰抽样样本的京津沪育龄妇女案例进行了检验汇总。按两种不同口径的汇总结果都表明 ,京津沪户籍育龄妇女的总和生育率远远低于 1 0。     

The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States

The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.     

Changes in Cohabitation After the Birth of the First Child in Chile

In Chile, as in other Latin American countries, most children born outside of marriage are born to currently cohabiting couples. After having their first child, parents could marry, separate, or experience no change in union status. This paper explores changes in cohabitation that occur after the birth of the first child in Chile and analyzes how these changes might be associated with the birth of children and socioeconomic status. The data come from the New Chilean Family Survey, a small longitudinal survey administered to women after giving birth (n = 564). I use life tables and event history techniques to assess changes in respondent union status up to 4 years after the birth of the first child, and to study the transitions out of cohabitation. The results indicate that the unions in the sample are relatively stable, because less than 40 percent of cohabiters change status over the period of 4 years. However, marriage still appears to be a more stable type of union than cohabitation. Among cohabiters, there is evidence of a nonlinear relation between union stability and educational attainment, because the most stable unions are the unions of women with a high school diploma and not the unions of women who did not complete their secondary education. Having planned the first birth and the birth of an additional child seems to consolidate the cohabiting union, because these variables are not related to the entry into marriage, but they are related to lower risks of dissolution. These findings suggest that the Chilean case differs from the cases of Europe and the United States.     

Life and death in the sixteenth century in the City of York

Abstract Birth data obtained from the parish records of the City of York show a markedly bi-modal seasonal distribution in the sixteenth century. It appeared interesting to compare the expectation of life of individuals born during this period, during the two minimal and two maximal seasons, to determine if there was any adaptive significance in the annual variation of birth rate. No such effect could be established by this study. However, certain conclusions of considerable interest can be drawn. The survivorship functions for either sex, grouped by birth season or on the whole group, are of a rectilinear diagonal type more reminiscent of an avian population rather than man. However the York data were treated, no statistically significant difference appeared between the sexes when their expectation of life was compared, and the female death rate at all times until the end of life was somewhat higher than the male. It appeared that sixteenth-century York tended to care better for their sons than for their daughters, which also appears to be the case in some modern societies of low to moderate living standard.     

Household size and composition in the developing world in the 1990s

This study uses data from recent household surveys in 43 developing countries to describe the main dimensions of household size and composition in the developing world. Average household size varies only modestly among regions, ranging from 5.6 in the Near East/North Africa to 4.8 in Latin America. These averages are similar to levels observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Europe and North America. About four out of five members of the household are part of the nuclear family of the head of the household. Household size is found to be positively associated with the level of fertility and the mean age at marriage, and inversely associated with the level of marital disruption. An analysis of trends and differentials in household size suggests that convergence to smaller and predominantly nuclear households is proceeding slowly in contemporary developing countries.     

Queerest Little City in the World: Gay Reno in the Sixties

This article is a history of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) community in Reno, Nevada, during the 1960s. Despite prevalent beliefs that there was not a coherent LGBT community in Reno before Stonewall, my article shows the opposite. Linked by several LGBT-owned businesses and public places, Reno had a well-defined community that people knew about. The article also shows how Reno was looked at as a failing marginalized city throughout the 1960s and that this, in turn, allowed it to become a prime place for LGBT peoples to move and start gentrifying the area. The article also shows how the unusual nature of Nevada and its relation to vice during the middle decades made it fertile ground for businesses to spring up that catered to the LGBT community. Overall, the article shows a dense series of networks between LGBT Northern Nevada natives, tourists, and the spaces they inhabited during the 1960s.     

走进新世纪的中国农村养老

农村养老是中国21世纪战略难题。中国人口80%以上在农村,农村60岁以上人口已超1亿,人口老龄化来势迅速,在农村两代人分居现象严重,农民对人口老龄化认识和准备不足。所以,必须大力开展农村养老保障体系构建。     

Measuring Hope in the Philippines: Validating the Short Version of the Locus-of-Hope Scale in Filipino

A short version of the locus-of-hope Scale was developed and translated into the Filipino language for the purpose of assessing hope in Filipinos who have lower levels of education and who may not have adequate levels of proficiency in English. The 20-item scale had four locus-of-hope subscales (internal, external-family, external-peers, and external-spiritual) each with four items (another four were filler items); all items described thoughts associated with some capacity and strategy to attain important goals in life. A sample (N = 362) of adults from communities in Metro Manila were asked to answer the scale, as well as measures of optimism, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated an adequate fit between the hypothesized four-factor structure and the data, but the internal locus-of-hope scale was found to have low internal consistency. Regression analysis showed positive associations between the internal and external-family locus-of-hope subscales and the three measures of wellbeing. But external-peers locus-of-hope was negatively associated with optimism and self-esteem, and external-spiritual locus-of-hope was positively related with optimism.     

从意愿到事实:农民工养老保险参保意愿和行为差异的影响因素研究

农民工参加养老保险对于化解农民工老年生活风险具有重要作用,也是农民工融入城市的重要途径.研究认为,农民工养老保险参保意愿和参保行为之间存在差异,并利用二项logit回归模型,基于社会外部结构和个体自身结构的双重结构,考察促使参保意愿向参保事实转变的实现条件.研究发现,农民工能否实现从参保意愿到实际参保行为的跨越,一方面主要受缴费水平是否合理、用工环境是否完善、群内社会互动水平等外部条件制约,另一方面与性别、受教育程度、居留时间、收入水平等自身条件有关.这对于调整和完善农民工养老保险的政策制定具有启示意义.     

Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States

Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.     

论农民养老中的政府职能

在现行农民养老体系中,政府尽管做了大量工作,但总体支持力度不够,影响了农村老年保障制度的正常发展。政府应明确和确立其主体地位,充分发挥自身职能,以促进农民养老问题的解决和农村老年保障制度的健康发展。     

Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States

We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are "catching up" on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children.     

Migration in the Southeast

Between 1940 and 1960 the Southeast experienced both economic and demographic revolutions. They were interrelated in many ways. Agriculture was mechanized and reorganized making millions of farmers and farm laborers surplus. The natural assets of the region were developed and industry grew more rapidly than in other regions. There were marked changes in the labor force, a rapid increase in the proportion of women employed and a decrease in the proportion of Negroes. The level of family income rose faster than in other regions.Five and three quarter million persons were transferred from the farm population. A net of 2.7 million left the region and 3 million were absorbed in nonfarm areas within the region. In 1960 52 percent of the population was in cities. Increase was especially fast in metropolitan urban areas, mostly in suburbs. There were also substantial increases in the rural nonfarm areas. Small cities as a group showed no net in-migration. Among the net migrants out of the region the ratio was 4 colored to1 white.The age and sex distribution was warped, especially below age 30, slowing down the early marriage rate and the crude birth rate.The projection of the trend which was being followed in the early 1960s indicates that the regional rate of increase may overtake that of the rest of the country, being particularly rapid in the young adult and adolescent ages.For the purposes of this study the Southeast includes: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. These were originally the heaviest cotton producing states and the heart of the sharecropping area where the reorganization of the economy was particularly disruptive.