The Differential Earnings and Income Effects of Involuntary Job Loss on Workers with Disabilities — Evidence from Sweden

People with disabilities are consistently found to face considerable difficulties in the labour market. In this study we investigated whether their earnings and income trajectories are more adversely affected in case of involuntary job loss. Earnings of those with and without disabilities began to diverge already several years prior to job loss because of larger incidence of sickness. Following job loss much more job losers with disabilities became disability retirees resulting in a considerable and seemingly permanent earnings differential. However, larger uptake of public social insurances among job losers with disabilities resulted in a much smaller income differential.     

基于维持现状偏好理论的信息系统使用决策研究

近些年来,信息系统的用户行为研究得到学术界的关注和重视。文章从决策机制的角度分析了现有的关于信息系统持续使用的研究,将用户的信息系统使用决策行为划分为理性决策、情感决策和习惯决策三个阶段。理性决策强调用户持续使用某一信息系统是一种有意识的理性决策行为;情感决策强调用户在使用某一信息系统的过程中形成的情感、感觉和态度等心理感受会影响其持续使用该系统的意愿;习惯决策则意味着用户持续使用某一信息系统是一种无意识的重复行为。文章重点介绍了在信息系统使用中维持现状偏好理论的具体体现,及其对用户使用决策的影响,以期对后续研究提供有益借鉴。     

基于动态环境构型分析的企业雇佣策略研究

在整合已有研究的基础上,通过构型分析来研究不同性质的环境动态性及其对企业战略性雇佣策略的复合性影响,并构建出基于动态环境的企业雇佣策略选择机制以促进该领域研究的发展.研究认为,环境的动态性是多维的,其中的知识扩散速度会影响企业的知识管理范式和雇佣策略,而竞争环境的波动决定了企业需要具备的人力资源柔性的程度,但对雇佣策略的影响则不明确.研究结果表明,处于知识慢速扩散环境的企业适宜采取长期雇佣,竞争环境的波动程度则会影响企业管理知识员工的方式;当环境中知识快速扩散但竞争环境波动较低时,企业适宜采用短期雇佣;当知识扩散速度和竞争环境波动都较高时,企业适宜采取多元雇佣.     

员工代际差异对其工作场所乐趣与绩效关系的影响

以江苏280名企业员工为研究对象,采用单因素方差分析、多元线性回归分析等统计方法,分析了员工代际差异在工作场所乐趣与个体绩效(工作满意度、任务绩效、组织公民行为)关系中的调节效应。研究结果发现,江苏企业员工各代际(社会主义巩固建设一代、文革一代、改革开放一代)对工作场所乐趣所持的态度存在差异。相对于文革一代,改革开放一代在工作场所乐趣同员工工作满意度、任务绩效的关系上展示出更强的正向关联性,说明组织管理者为改革开放一代营造工作场所乐趣有利于其完成角色内行为。但在向社会主义巩固建设一代和文革一代传递工作场所乐趣时则需要考虑更多的因素。研究结果通过员工代际差异这个新视角,从理论上丰富了以往研究的相关结论。     

Longitudinal Analysis of Employment and Unemployment Based on Matched Rotation Samples

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to provide methodology to fit longitudinal data on employment and unemployment generated by the rotation sampling schemes of national labour force surveys. The proposed methodology, referred to as infinite-lag Markov models, is a generalisation of autoregressive Markov models developed for application in stochastic reservoir theory (Pegram 1980, Raftery 1985). Infinite-lag Markov chains have infinite memory and, therefore, can usefully serve to model labour supply behaviour taking into account, in principle, the complete past work experience of individuals, and not just the most recent past or the most recent spell. After a brief review of the rotation sampling schemes of 20 national labour force surveys, the different types of longitudinal sequences that can be obtained from the rotation schemes are examined. A review of various models proposed in the literature for analysing longitudinal data on employment and unemployment, expressed under simplified assumptions and in discrete forms, set the stage for the formulation of the proposed infinite-lag Markov model. The method is illustrated using matched longitudinal data derived from the US Current Population Survey.     

The Use of Individual and Societal Risk Criteria Within the Dutch Flood Safety Policy—Nationwide Estimates of Societal Risk and Policy Applications

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defenses in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost‐benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two risk metrics, individual and societal risk, to support decision making about new flood safety standards. These risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of risks to the public. Individual risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and societal risk metrics in flood risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of societal risk are presented. Societal risk levels appear relatively high in the southwestern part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. It was found that cumulation, the simultaneous flooding of multiple dike rings during a single flood event, has significant impact on the national level of societal risk. Options for the application of the individual and societal risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.     

Simultaneous Analysis of Individual and Aggregate Responses in Psychometric Data Using Multilevel Modeling

Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.     

贫困减少与经济增长和收入不平等的关系研究——基于时序数据

基于时间序列分析方法,以1981年～2004年贫困发生率、基尼系数和农村人均纯收入等相关指标,从时序雏度考察贫困人口的变动与经济增长和收入不平等的长期均衡关系和相互作用机制.Johansen协整检验结果表明,3个变量之间存在着一定的长期协整性:格兰杰因果检验发现,农村人均纯收入和基尼系数能够预测贫困发生率的变化,反之不能成立;误差修正模型显示,贫困发生率对农村人均纯收入的弹性系数为正,对基尼系数的弹性系数为负.且前者大于后者.由此认为,农村人均纯收入的提高是促进贫困减少的影响因素,收入不平等在一定程度上阻碍了贫困减少,经济增长对贫困减少的积极效应大于收入不平等对贫困减少的消极效应.因此,在目前中国经济增长时期,确保农民收入大幅度增加、努力缓解收入差距是贫困减少的有效途径.     

外国直接投资的就业效应实证分析--以广东省就业市场为例

本文选择全国利用外国直接投资最为活跃的广东省就业市场作为研究对象,通过建立相应的计量模型,着重研究外国直接投资对就业的影响.本文研究发现,外国直接投资对广东省的总就业确实存在显著性的影响,并且在此基础上探讨了这种显著性背后的原因.     

The Intra‐household Division of Labor: An Empirical Analysis of Spousal Influences on Individual Time Allocation

Using the German Time Use Surveys 1991/92 and 2001/02, this paper analyses the interactions between the time‐use decisions of partners within one household. Thereby, an interdependent model of the partners' times allocated to paid and unpaid work that allows for simultaneity and endogeneity of the time allocation decisions of the spouses is applied. When including both weekdays and weekend days in the analysis, a complementary relationship between the partner's time allocations is found. When restricting the analysis to weekdays, however, men's time dedicated to paid and unpaid work is unaffected by their wives' time‐use decisions.     

Individual Preferences and Job Characteristics: An Analysis of Cooperative Credit Banks

The aim of this paper is to analyse individual preferences in relation to different job characteristics. More specifically, this work focuses on the case of employees of cooperative credit banks (CCBs) in Campania and accounts for certain fundamental institutional features: CCBs are designed to pursue specific member interests rather than profit maximization, and most employees are both owners and consumers. The research is conducted by applying a conjoint analysis approach with stated preference data. Novel features of the analysis include the application of this approach to empirical research on worker incentives and the use of a mixed logit model.     

生态税与社会就业：“双重红利假说”的视角

基于生态税"双重红利"假说的综合性税制改革是90年代以来各国政府和学术界关注的热点之一.针对中国当前环境问题和就业问题这两个突出矛盾,本文基于"双重红利"假说的思想,提出了一个局部均衡模型,就生态税对两者的影响进行了探讨,分析了其解决中国现实问题的预期效果和限制因素.本文的研究表明,生态税能否达到双重红利的效果与多个因素有关,特别是与企业所处行业的污染治理成本紧密相关,并不能一概而论,在政府征税能力不强,企业逃税比较普遍的环境下,政府的直接补贴未必能实现补贴的初衷.建议在引入法律意义上的生态税税种之前,先在一些地区或行业进行试点,基于我国实际状况的财税改革措施可能会有更好的实际效果.     

A Novel Approach to Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment—Linking Data from Population‐Based Epidemiology and Experimental Animal Tests

Humans are continuously exposed to chemicals with suspected or proven endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Risk management of EDCs presents a major unmet challenge because the available data for adverse health effects are generated by examining one compound at a time, whereas real‐life exposures are to mixtures of chemicals. In this work, we integrate epidemiological and experimental evidence toward a whole mixture strategy for risk assessment. To illustrate, we conduct the following four steps in a case study: (1) identification of single EDCs (“bad actors”)—measured in prenatal blood/urine in the SELMA study—that are associated with a shorter anogenital distance (AGD) in baby boys; (2) definition and construction of a “typical” mixture consisting of the “bad actors” identified in Step 1; (3) experimentally testing this mixture in an in vivo animal model to estimate a dose–response relationship and determine a point of departure (i.e., reference dose [RfD]) associated with an adverse health outcome; and (4) use a statistical measure of “sufficient similarity” to compare the experimental RfD (from Step 3) to the exposure measured in the human population and generate a “similar mixture risk indicator” (SMRI). The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pregnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%).     

基于离散傅里叶变换的网络可靠性数据分析模型

基于离散傅里叶变换理论和通信网可靠性的特点,研究了通信网可靠性评价管理中通信网可靠性实时数据分析的问题.基于离散傅里叶变换理论和随机变量的数字特征-方差,提出了一个基于离散傅里叶变换的通信网可靠性实时数据分析模型与算法,通过应用实例说明该模型是有效的.     

个人账户与个人所得税激励联动对养老金替代率的影响

本文针对养老保险资金来源不足问题,提出了将一部分个人所得税转入到养老保险个人账户的思路,既弥补养老保险缴费不足,又可提高人们缴纳个人所得税积极性,且有助于机关事业单位养老保险改革试点方案的顺利实施。并在此思路上针对现行的企业养老保险计发办法上建立了精算模型,比较分析了个人所得税转入与不转入养老金个人账户情形下不同工资水平及其增长率、不同的基金累积利率、不同的退休年龄对个人账户养老保险水平的影响。     

基于XBRL的财务数据挖掘系统分析与设计

本文从数据挖掘系统原型架构出发,结合财务数据的特点分析、财务数据挖掘的一般过程和XBRL技术.设计出一种基于XBRL的财务数据挖掘系统模型,为进一步深入研究财务数据挖掘提供了一种较好的方法.     

An Empirical Investigation of Web Site Use Using a Commitment‐Based Model

Companies throughout industry are interested in retaining existing customers, because customers' continuous consumption of products and services is critical to the long‐term value propositions of most organizations. Thus, decision‐making strategies that promote continuous use and customer retention are of research interest, both theoretically and practically. In the present research, we investigate one important area of continuous usage, that of Web site use. In particular, we use several theories of commitment to understand how an individual's decision to continue to use a Web site is influenced by his or her commitment toward that Web site and the vendor that supports it. Results derived from data collected from 335 users of a variety of Web sites indicated that affective commitment, calculative commitment, quality of alternatives, and trust were significantly associated with an individual's behavioral intention to continue to use a Web site. Implications for customer retention and decision‐making strategies are discussed.     

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis: An Evaluation of Group versus Individual Performance

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most frequently used tools in process and product design: it is used in quality and reliability planning, and event and failure mode analysis. It has a long history of use and is a formally prescribed procedure by a number of prominent standards organizations. In addition, it's popular use has evolved as a less formal and widely interpreted tool in the area of Lean/Six Sigma (LSS) process improvement. This paper investigates one of the most important issues related to FMEA practice—the quality of individual vs. group performance in ranking failure modes. In particular, we compare FMEA rankings generated by: (i) individuals, (ii) group consensus, and (iii) non‐collaborative aggregation of group input (a synthesized group ranking). We find that groups outperform individuals and that synthetic groups perform as well as group consensus. We explain the implications of this result on the coordination of the design of products and processes amongst distributed organizations. The increasing distribution of product design efforts, both in terms of geography and different organizations, presents an opportunity to improve coordination using distributed synthetic group‐based FMEA.     

An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models

Many different techniques have been proposed for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on computer models for complex processes. The objective of the present study is to investigate the applicability of three widely used techniques to three computer models having large uncertainties and varying degrees of complexity in order to highlight some of the problem areas that must be addressed in actual applications. The following approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are considered: (1) response surface methodology based on input determined from a fractional factorial design; (2) Latin hypercube sampling with and without regression analysis; and (3) differential analysis. These techniques are investigated with respect to (1) ease of implementation, (2) flexibility, (3) estimation of the cumulative distribution function of the output, and (4) adaptability to different methods of sensitivity analysis. With respect to these criteria, the technique using Latin hypercube sampling and regression analysis had the best overall performance. The models used in the investigation are well documented, thus making it possible for researchers to make comparisons of other techniques with the results in this study.