Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics

This paper estimates a structural dynamic equilibrium model of the Brazilian labor market in order to study trade‐induced transitional dynamics. The model features a multi‐sector economy with overlapping generations, heterogeneous workers, endogenous accumulation of sector‐specific experience, and costly switching of sectors. The model's estimates yield median costs of mobility ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 times annual average wages, but a high dispersion of these costs across the population. In addition, sector‐specific experience is imperfectly transferable across sectors, leading to additional barriers to mobility. Using the estimated model for counterfactual trade liberalization experiments, the main findings are: (1) there is a large labor market response following trade liberalization but the transition may take several years; (2) potential aggregate welfare gains are significantly reduced due to the delayed adjustment; (3) trade‐induced welfare effects depend on initial sector of employment and on worker demographics such as age and education. The experiments also highlight the sensitivity of the transitional dynamics with respect to assumptions regarding the mobility of capital.     

Collective Wage Agreements and Firms’ Employment Policies

This paper provides evidence on the way collective wage agreements affect the adjustment of employment, working hours and other production factors when service‐sector firms are faced with demand shocks. The estimation results indicate that collective wage agreements significantly influence firms’ employment policies. It is shown that recruitment is a widespread instrument for service firms to cope with demand fluctuations which are negatively affected by collective wage agreements. The employment of freelance workers is also negatively affected by collective wage agreements, while their effect on using short‐term employment contracts as a reaction to demand shocks is positive.     

Efficiency Wage,Fixed Employment Costs,and Dual Labour Markets

The standard efficiency wage‐based explanation of labour market dualism hinges on the existence of differences in monitoring across sectors. The paper proposes fixed employment costs as an alternative source of wage differentials for homogeneous workers. It shows that firms with larger fixed costs pay higher wages in order to elicit more effort from their workers, and tend to have higher capital/labour ratio and labour productivity. The model generates both involuntary unemployment and involuntary confinement in the secondary sector: high effort–high wage jobs are preferred to low effort–low wage jobs and either are preferred to unemployment. The proposed framework can also account for the various types of treatment of marginal jobs in primary sector firms envisaged by Doeringer and Piore (Internal Labour Markets and Manpower Analysis, 1971). In particular, an increase in fixed costs beyond a certain level may induce primary sector firms to restructure, segment production, and enter the secondary sector, thus converting their jobs into secondary jobs. From a welfare point of view, we cannot state in general the desirability of subsidizing fixed employment costs; however, we show that an employment subsidy financed by a wage tax is able to increase employment with no loss in terms of production.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Public‐Sector Unions

Motivated by the highly unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public‐sector wage premia observed in Europe, this paper examines the importance of public‐sector unions for macroeconomic theory. The model generates cyclical behavior in hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with highly unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970–2007. The union model is an improvement over a model with exogenous public employment. In addition, endogenously determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary effect of contractionary tax reforms by generating greater tax rate changes, thus producing higher welfare losses.     

Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China

The benefits of the multi‐faceted liberalization of the Chinese economy can be seen in various indicators of economic development. The rate of growth of the economy, the flow of foreign investment in China, and rising quality of life are some of the indicators of gains from the liberalization process. Most of the research has focused on the role of trade reforms on the Chinese economy. There is, however, one unfinished agenda that has not been addressed adequately by policy makers as well as academia, i.e. labor‐sector reforms. In this paper, we analyze the effect of labor market liberalization in China using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Most CGE models on China using a neoclassical approach assume that there is a single wage rate for the economy. This is a simplifying assumption and has strong implications. Studies show that inter‐industry wage differentials persist even after accounting for obvious explanations such as differences in human capital or job hazard. Inter‐industry structural rigidities in developing countries lead to wage differentials. In China, labor mobility from the rural to the urban sector is restricted. Furthermore, China is on its way to joining the WTO agreement. As a signatory to the WTO agreement, China would be required to reform its trade sector by eliminating tariffs. In this paper, we explicitly model wage differentials in the case of the Chinese economy. Various counterfactual experiments have been conducted to introduce efficiency by the removal of factor market differentials in China in the presence and absence of tariff and non‐tariff barriers. Our results indicate that factor market reforms are essential to the realization of full gains from accession to the WTO agreement.     

Welfare Effects of Local versus Central Wage Bargaining

The paper analyses the welfare effects of union bargaining (de)centralization in a dual labour market with a unionized and a competitive sector. We show that social welfare depends on both the structure of the union's objective function and the elasticities of labour demand in both sectors. The welfare‐maximizing employment allocation can be obtained under a high degree of centralization if the union maximizes the total wage‐bill. Otherwise, if the union is rent maximizing, welfare is higher under local bargaining. However, in that case neither central nor local wage setting yields the social optimum.     

Modeling Earnings Dynamics

In this paper, we use indirect inference to estimate a joint model of earnings, employment, job changes, wage rates, and work hours over a career. We use the model to address a number of important questions in labor economics, including the source of the experience profile of wages, the response of job changes to outside wage offers, and the effects of seniority on job changes. We also study the dynamic response of wage rates, hours, and earnings to various shocks, and measure the relative contributions of the shocks to the variance of earnings in a given year and over a lifetime. We find that human capital accounts for most of the growth of earnings over a career, although job seniority and job mobility also play significant roles. Unemployment shocks have a large impact on earnings in the short run, as well as a substantial long‐term effect that operates through the wage rate. Shocks associated with job changes and unemployment make a large contribution to the variance of career earnings and operate mostly through the job‐specific error components of wages and hours.     

Knowledge Spillovers and Wage Inequality: An Empirical Analysis of Dutch Manufacturing

The introduction of new technologies and technical change is associated mainly with high‐skilled and high‐wage workers. In addition, many studies have found a positive correlation between the introduction of new technologies and technical change and skill upgrading. In these studies no attention has been paid to spillovers from one sector to the other. In this paper we not only use measures of technical change but also knowledge spillovers to explain wage inequality in Dutch manufacturing in the period 1986–95. Using this more elaborate measure of technical change, our findings are twofold. First, we confirm that workers employed in knowledge‐intensive manufacturing sectors receive a higher wage than workers in less knowledge‐intensive sectors. Secondly, the wages paid to high‐skilled workers relative to low‐skilled workers in knowledge‐intensive sectors are higher than those in less knowledge‐intensive sectors. However, the coefficients using the elaborate measure of technological advancement are much lower and sometimes even insignificant. This suggests a premium for high‐skilled labour in sectors both applying and developing technology. But the wage premium is highest in technology‐developing sectors, as suggested by the measures used in previous studies.     

Price Effects of the Minimum Wage: A Survey Data Analysis for the German Construction Sector

Utilizing the link between employment and price changes as a result of minimum wages, we use firm‐level data to evaluate the effect of minimum wage introduction in the German construction sector. In East Germany we find significant positive price effects that exclude the possibility of rising employment. Rather, the results indicate the existence of a competitive sector‐specific labour market, and thus declining employment. In contrast, we cannot find any significant price reaction for West Germany. This suggests that the implemented minimum wage in West Germany is too low in comparison to the predominantly paid wages and is hence not binding.     

The Future of Labour Relations in the Public Service

Abstract. During the last decade, labour relations in the public service have been subject to pressures for change, less direct, given their protected character, than in the private sector, but not less strong. The main factors of change are (only) in part common to those operating in private sector labour relations: economic constraints and budgetary restrictions, coupled with a general reaction toward the ‘public’ in general have put pressure on employment whose costs represent the major part of public expenditures; the need for greater productivity and efficiency has been increasing in order to reduce labour costs and (possibly) meet the growing demand for (social) services; technological innovations (office automation. computerization and the like) are spreading; the impact of the international competition has begun to be felt not only indirectly via constraints on the state budgets but directly in those sectors of public services which can be somehow ‘transportable’ across borders and hence exposed to foreign initiatives (public works, TLC, to some extent health services. All these factors are emphasized by the European unification process which has already introduced limits in the monetary and financial autonomy of the member states.     

Institutions and Service Employment: A Panel Study for OECD Countries

Abstract. We live in a service economy, but the extent of development of service employment differs across developed countries. This paper assesses the role of structural factors and institutions in explaining the common patterns and main differences in the recent expansion of service employment in OECD countries. It finds that GDP per capita, the size of the government sector and the extent of urbanization are positively associated with the service employment share. However, the evidence suggests that laws and institutions such as product market regulations, unions and more coordinated wage‐setting systems are hampering the expansion of service employment.     

Labour Costs and Employment in the Service Economy

Abstract. In this paper we analyse the direct relationship between the cost of labour and employment in diverse service industries. In contrast to most existing studies, we assume that the tertiary sector is highly differentiated h terms of reactions to both supply and demand factors. The study suggests that we must reasses the relevance of demand factors, but it also confirms that the real cost of labour is a crucial determinant of certain kinds of service employment. Country comparisons have made US sensitive to the fact that the relationship between employment and the cost of labour is far from being globally similar. Each country exhibits behaviour in line with the peculiarities of its labour market.     

CHANGES IN CHINA'S WAGE STRUCTURE

Using a national sample of Urban Household Surveys, we document several profound changes in China's wage structure during a period of rapid economic growth. Between 1992 and 2007, the average real wage increased by 202%, accompanied by a sharp rise in wage inequality. Decomposition analysis reveals 80% of this wage growth to be attributable to higher pay for basic labor, rising returns to human capital, and increases in the state‐sector wage premium. By employing an aggregate production function framework, we account for the sources of wage growth and wage inequality amid fast economic growth and transition. We find capital accumulation, skill‐biased technological change, and rural–urban migration to be the major forces behind the evolving wage structure in urban China.     

Labor Market Effects of Population Aging

Abstract. This paper analyses effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically‐determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes.     

Exploring Job Satisfaction in Private and Public Employment: Empirical Evidence from Greece

Abstract. This paper analyses subjective job satisfaction (JS) responses by employees in the public and private sectors of the Greek labour market. Panel data covering the period 1995–2001 and a random effects ordered probit model are used for estimation purposes. The results of the econometric estimation show that a substantial JS differential exists between the two sectors, in every JS domain and always in favour of public employment. A typical ordered decomposition analysis indicates that about one‐third of the difference in expected JS can be explained by differences in employee characteristics and two‐thirds by unobserved sector‐specific inbuilt features. The comparison of wage reductions, which a representative employee will be prepared to endure in order to avoid employment in the private sector, reveals that the regularity of working schedules is appreciated more than any other facet of JS. The obtained results enhance the existing apparatus for evaluating government policies in the labour market.     

Market Volatility and the Structure of US Earnings

This paper studies the relationship between volatility of industry‐specific shipments and real earnings. In an efficiency wage theoretical framework I show that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment depend on the value of the worker’s outside offer net of his/her mobility costs. Empirically it is shown that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment markedly vary in a cross section of workers. The main finding is that market volatility changes the return to skill such as labor market experience and education. Its impact markedly varies across occupation groups, with managers receiving returns to labour market experience that significantly increase with product market volatility.     

Why Do People from Southern Italy Seek Jobs in the Public Sector?

This paper analyses the choice open to a worker seeking a job in the public and private sectors of the labour market. The private sector is identified by a steeper wage profile and by lower job security than the public sector. The reservation wage for the two sectors is calculated in the first part of the paper. The results reveal that the reservation wage for the public sector is higher than that for the private sector. The effect of career prospects, job riskiness and labour demand on optimal time allocation between the search in the two sectors is then analysed. Finally, an empirical analysis is made in order to study Italian workers’ search strategies. It highlights relevant geographical differences which can be interpreted through the theoretical results obtained in the paper.     

The Motherhood Wage Penalty and Its Determinants: A Public–Private Comparison

We investigate whether public and private sector employees bear a different wage penalty for having children. According to our estimates, the total motherhood wage penalty is much larger in the private than in the public sector. Nevertheless, in both sectors, we find no unexplained penalty once we control for potential determinants of the family pay gap, namely, a reduced labour supply of mothers, child‐related career interruptions, less access to management positions, and adjustments in working conditions. Finally, only child‐related career interruptions play a different role in explaining the motherhood wage penalty in each sector.     

财政分权体制对劳动力转移影响的实证分析

基于政府支出内生经济增长理论,探讨地级市政府财政自主程度对于服务行业分行业劳动力流动的影响,将行业劳动力变更细分为跨地区和跨行业两类指标,结合2004年至2011年中国城市统计年鉴构建的面板数据,在区分面板数据类型基础上分别采用固定效应模型或随机效应模型研究财政分权体制下这两类指标的变化。研究结果表明,在控制一系列影响因素后,地方财权的扩张只对交通、仓储及邮电、房地产和租赁商务以及服务行业劳动力流入产生正向影响,而批发零售、住宿餐饮、金融和信息行业在地方财权扩张时就业空间受到一定的挤压,导致本地劳动力流出。在跨行业的劳动力流动问题中,受地方财权扩张正向影响的行业为房地产、金融和租赁商务,其他行业则会由于地方政府财税自主权的提升造成就业萎缩;此外,地方政府财权自主程度提升会加剧地区及行业间劳动力的流动。