企业竞争力的综合测度

企业竞争力是企业求得自身生存与发展、战胜竞争对手的优势和能力。企业竞争力包括企业产品竞争力、企业技术开发和创新竞争力、企业市场营销竞争力、企业制度创新竞争力、企业管理创新竞争力、企业文化竞争力等六个方面。我们采用AHP法(层次分析法)综合测度A、B、C三个企业的竞争力并排序。     

Nontraditional Approaches to Assessing Journal Importance: Case Study of Russian Journals on Earth Sciences

Abstract

Currently, a broad set of bibliometric indices for evaluation of journal quality, the level of its internationalization, and interactions between serials are available. However, some cases require one to obtain more precise methods to assess journals, e.g., when estimating new journals, selecting them into international citation databases, increasing their rank, broadening their readership, or optimizing editorial policy. To cope with new challenges, new approaches have been introduced including altmetrics and various analyses of editorial board composition and impact. Analyzing altmetrics and studying geographic diversity on editorial boards, comparing these data with that of journal authors, and evaluating research efficiency of editorial board members enables one to use new approaches to assess the rank of serials. This paper considers current research reports on altmetrics, geographic diversity, and publication activity of editorial board members of top journals on Earth Sciences published in the Russian Federation and recognized as international serials. It was found that such altmetrics as abstract views, full text views, and a number of viewed papers are now available as additional metrics to evaluate journal quality. Furthermore, provided that the data on altmetrics are complete, they can be considered as a specific predictor for future citations and other citation-based indices. Editorial board analyses demonstrate a correlation of bibliometric indices of editorial board members with that of a journal. As for geographic diversity, only half of the analyzed journals demonstrate a strong correlation between the number of foreign members on editorial boards and geographic representativeness of a journal, mainly due to the local nature of geosciences and trade secret mode in much of mining research. Generally, the obtained findings highlighted the efficiency of new approaches to evaluate journal quality both in the case of the absence of citation-based journal metrics and as an additional tool to traditional indices.     

Some aspects of modern population mathematics

The purpose of this paper is to survey a number of the technical tools and models that have found use in the study of human and other populations, and to indicate some problems of current interest. These tools and models are varied: integral equations, nonlinear oscillations, differential geometry, dynamical systems, nonlinear operations, bifurcation theory, semigroup theory, martingale theory, Markov processes, diffusion processes, branching processes, ergodic theory, prediction theory and state-space models. A fairly extensive bibliography is provided. Also an Appendix has been added describing the analysis of a classical entomological data set.     

利润最大化区位理论与广州高房价的根源

本文利用利润最大化区位理论,建立房价模型,实证研究广州房价持续上涨的根源。发现影响房价的主要因素是住房供给的短缺,次要原因是高成本以及严重的贫富分化。其体制根源在于自由竞争的地产需求市场与计划经济的地产供给市场之间的矛盾,政策根源在于政府变为“经济人”,一味经营城市,经济根源在于因竞争和权力垄断所导致的产业分化,社会根源在于广州市民不合理的住房消费习惯。因而,近期来讲,加大土地供给、改革土地出让方式、实行房地产累进累退税是抑制房价的关键,从长远来讲,要建立自由竞争的地产供给市场,变“经济人”政府为服务性政府,优化产业结构,取消“国字头”行业特权。     

政府统计生态环境建设的系统分析

为了提高统计数据质量, 除了统计系统内部的努力以外,提出了政府统计生态环境建设的新命题。从系统分析的角度,研究了政府统计生态环境的内涵和外延,并分析了政府统计的思想观念环境、体制制度环境、社会信用环境、法制环境、国际环境、社会舆论环境建设的基本问题。     

Maximizing proportions of correct classifications in binary logistic regression

In this paper, we give simple mathematical results that allow us to get all cut-off points that maximize the overall proportion of correct classifications in any binary classification method (and, in particular, in binary logistic regression). In addition, we give results that allow us to get all cut-off points that maximize a weighted combination of specificity and sensitivity. In addition, we discuss measures of association between predicted probabilities and observed responses, and, in particular, we discuss the calculation of the overall percentages of concordant, discordant, and tied pairs of input observations with different responses. We mention that the calculation of these quantities by SAS and Minitab is sometimes incorrect. The concepts and methods of the paper are illustrated by a hypothetical example of school retention data.     

Statistical inference for the quintile share ratio

In recent years, the Quintile Share Ratio (or QSR) has become a very popular measure of inequality. In 2001, the European Council decided that income inequality in European Union member states should be described using two indicators: the Gini Index and the QSR. The QSR is generally defined as the ratio of the total income earned by the richest 20% of the population relative to that earned by the poorest 20%. Thus, it can be expressed using quantile shares, where a quantile share is the share of total income earned by all of the units up to a given quantile. The aim of this paper is to propose an improved methodology for the estimation and variance estimation of the QSR in a complex sampling design framework. Because the QSR is a non-linear function of interest, the estimation of its sampling variance requires advanced methodology. Moreover, a non-trivial obstacle in the estimation of quantile shares in finite populations is the non-unique definition of a quantile. Thus, two different conceptions of the quantile share are presented in the paper, leading us to two different estimators of the QSR. Regarding variance estimation, [Osier, 2006] and [Osier, 2009] proposed a variance estimator based on linearization techniques. However, his method involves Gaussian kernel smoothing of cumulative distribution functions. Our approach, also based on linearization, shows that no smoothing is needed. The construction of confidence intervals is discussed and a proposition is made to account for the skewness of the sampling distribution of the QSR. Finally, simulation studies are run to assess the relevance of our theoretical results.     

模糊数据的回归模型结构分析

本文在给出对称三角模糊数样本基础上,提出模糊数据回归分析模型的一般结构。在使用线性规划LP方法进行模糊回归系数估计时,根据模糊集合的择近原则,给出了利用样本平均贴近度评价模型拟合效果的一个准则。通过实例计算,比较了模糊样本回归模型未知参数估计的FLP方法和FLS 方法。     

On the asymptotic distributions of mean,autocovariance, autocorrelation,crossgovariancb and impulse response estimators of a stationary multidimensional random field

Asymptotic properties of mean, autocovariance, autocorrelation, crosscovariance and impulse response estimators of a stationary M-dimensionai (M-D) random field are studied. It is shown that only unbiased-type estimators of autocovariances, autocorrelations, crosscovariances and impulse responses have the asymptotic distributions when M≧ 2. Moreover, the asymptotic distributions of mean, autocovariance, autocorrelation, crosscovariance and impulse response estimators are presented.     

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility: A Review

The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation, and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely, (i) asymmetric models, (ii) factor models, (iii) time-varying correlation models, and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, the Cholesky decomposition, and the Wishart autoregressive process. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods of diagnostic checking and model comparison are also reviewed.     

统计概念解析

本文从分析统计的本质属性出发,根据统计广泛性特点,归纳广义统计和狭义统计的概念,建立“统计概念总系”,力求能够包罗统计万象,体现统计全貌,使统计这一事物有一个总纲纪,为人们全面认识统计提供了一个新的视角。文中重点对政府统计纵向构成进行了分析和解读,解开人们在传统认识上的挽扣儿,这是正确理解政府统计构成的关键认识点,由此方能建立起统计概念体系。     

The occurrence of fingerprint characteristics as a two-dimensional poisson process

The individuality of n fingerprint is based on the configuration of occurences of the ten Galton characteristics ( ridge endings, forks, etc. ). A model ( Osterburg, Parthasarthy, Raghavan, Sclove, 1977 ) for the occurence of these characteristics, in terms of a grid of cells, is further developed. The occurence of the characteristics is modelled as a two-dimensional multivariate Poisson process. This approach allows one to treat multiple occurrences in a more satisfying way than in Osterburg, Parthasarathy, Raghavan and Sclove ( 1977 ) or Sclove ( 1978 )     

Realized Volatility and Long Memory: An Overview

The challenge of modeling, estimating, testing, and forecasting financial volatility is both intellectually worthwhile and also central to the successful analysis of financial returns and optimal investment strategies. In each of the three primary areas of volatility modeling, namely, conditional (or generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) volatility, stochastic volatility and realized volatility (RV), numerous univariate volatility models of individual financial assets and multivariate volatility models of portfolios of assets have been established. This special issue has eleven innovative articles, eight of which are focused directly on RV and three on long memory, while two are concerned with both RV and long memory.     

A comparison of recent nonparametric methods for testing effects in two-by-two factorial designs

The two-way two-levels crossed factorial design is a commonly used design by practitioners at the exploratory phase of industrial experiments. The F-test in the usual linear model for analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a key instrument to assess the impact of each factor and of their interactions on the response variable. However, if assumptions such as normal distribution and homoscedasticity of errors are violated, the conventional wisdom is to resort to nonparametric tests. Nonparametric methods, rank-based as well as permutation, have been a subject of recent investigations to make them effective in testing the hypotheses of interest and to improve their performance in small sample situations. In this study, we assess the performances of some nonparametric methods and, more importantly, we compare their powers. Specifically, we examine three permutation methods (Constrained Synchronized Permutations, Unconstrained Synchronized Permutations and Wald-Type Permutation Test), a rank-based method (Aligned Rank Transform) and a parametric method (ANOVA-Type Test). In the simulations, we generate datasets with different configurations of distribution of errors, variance, factor's effect and number of replicates. The objective is to elicit practical advice and guides to practitioners regarding the sensitivity of the tests in the various configurations, the conditions under which some tests cannot be used, the tradeoff between power and type I error, and the bias of the power on one main factor analysis due to the presence of effect of the other factor. A dataset from an industrial engineering experiment for thermoformed packaging production is used to illustrate the application of the various methods of analysis, taking into account the power of the test suggested by the objective of the experiment.     

On the importance of being smooth

This paper makes the proposition that the only statistical analyses to achieve widespread popular use in statistical practice are those whose formulations are based on very smooth mathematical functions. The argument is made on an empirical basis, through examples. Given the truth of the proposition, the question ‘why should it be so?’ is intriguing, and any discussion has to be speculative. To aid that discussion, the paper starts with a list of statistical desiderata, with the view of seeing what properties are provided by underlying smoothness. This provides some rationale for the proposition. After that, the examples are considered. Methods that are widely used are listed, along with other methods which, despite impressive properties and possible early promise, have languished in the arena of practical application. Whatever the underlying causes may be, the proposition carries a worthwhile message for the formulation of new statistical methods, and for the adaptation of some of the old ones.     

城市群经济网络与经济增长——基于大数据与网络分析方法的研究

借助大数据时代下获得的海量数据,本文分析了长三角城市群的经济网络特征,重点研究了城市群经济网络的增长效应。首先,构建了长三角城市群的人口流动网络、企业组织网络与电子商务网络,对其各自的网络结构特征进行了对比。其次,将网络分析方法与空间计量模型结合起来,使用扩展的J检验方法对不同网络结构下的模型设定方法进行了识别,考察了经济网络带来的溢出效应对于城市群经济增长的影响。分析结果显示,三种经济网络下长三角城市群均呈现出了“中心-外围”的网络结构,其中上海、杭州、苏州、南京及无锡位于城市群经济网络的核心圈层。对网络结构的模型识别结果显示,中心城市在长三角城市群经济网络的溢出效应中扮演着重要角色。具体而言,在人口流动网络下,资本、政府行为存在显著为负的网络溢出效应;在企业组织网络下,人口规模、对外开放呈现出显著为正的网络溢出效应;在电子商务网络下,政府行为存在显著为负的网络溢出效应,对外开放呈现出显著为正的网络溢出效应。     

Rethinking Periodical Indices to Expand Art Historical Research: A Case Study of Avalanche Magazine Index

Abstract

Avalanche Magazine, an artist magazine published in the 1970s, is a unique primary source document of the conceptual art scene. Replete with photographs, advertisements, artist interviews, and gossipy personal notices, it is a trove of insight into artistic practice in a highly experimental period. Nevertheless, it was never included in any visual art or humanities database index, leaving its content largely undiscoverable by traditional means. In an effort to remedy this situation, the authors built an open access website, Avalanche Magazine Index (http://avalancheindex.org), which indexes the entire contents of Avalanche. Like a traditional periodical index, Avalanche Magazine Index describes the content of the magazine rather than reproducing it in full text. However, unlike traditional indices, the website encompasses every component of the magazine—from interviews to advertisements—and attempts to identify each named artist, venue, exhibition, curator, and photographer. The exhaustive indexing works in concert with the relational database that underlies the site to reveal a network of relationships between and within the artistic communities of the era. This case study presents the rationale for indexing Avalanche Magazine, provides an overview of workflow, outlines the ways the project diverges from traditional indexes, reflects on the impact of open access on the project’s success, and proposes that the website is capable of generating new knowledge in and of itself.     

The largest SNR distribution

The probability distribution of the maximum of normalized SNRs (signal-to-noise ratios) is studied for wireless systems with multiple branches. Explicit expressions and bounds are derived for the cumulative distribution function, probability density function, hazard rate function, moment generating function, nth moment, variance, skewness, kurtosis, mean deviation, Shannon entropy, order statistics and the asymptotic distribution of the extreme order statistics. Estimation procedures are derived by the methods of moments and maximum likelihood. An application is illustrated with respect to performance assessment of wireless systems.