The power of the circular cone test: A noncentral chi-bar-squared distribution

Pincus (1975) derived the null distribution of the likelihood-ratio test statistic for testing that the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution is zero against the alternative that the mean vector lies in a circular cone. Under the null hypothesis, the likelihood-ratio test statistic has a chi-bar-squared distribution. We extend the results of Pincus by deriving the distribution of the likelihood-ratio test statistic under the alternative hypothesis. In a special case, the distribution is a “noncentral chi-bar-squared” distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first order-restricted testing problem for which the relationship between the null and alternative distributions of the test statistic is similar to the relationship in the linear-model setting. That is, the distribution of the likelihood-ratio test has a central form of a distribution under the null hypothesis and a noncentral form of the same distribution under the alternative.     

Empirical phi-divergence test statistics for testing simple and composite null hypotheses

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce first a new family of empirical test statistics for testing a simple null hypothesis when the vector of parameters of interest is defined through a specific set of unbiased estimating functions. This family of test statistics is based on a distance between two probability vectors, with the first probability vector obtained by maximizing the empirical likelihood (EL) on the vector of parameters, and the second vector defined from the fixed vector of parameters under the simple null hypothesis. The distance considered for this purpose is the phi-divergence measure. The asymptotic distribution is then derived for this family of test statistics. The proposed methodology is illustrated through the well-known data of Newcomb's measurements on the passage time for light. A simulation study is carried out to compare its performance with that of the EL ratio test when confidence intervals are constructed based on the respective statistics for small sample sizes. The results suggest that the ‘empirical modified likelihood ratio test statistic’ provides a competitive alternative to the EL ratio test statistic, and is also more robust than the EL ratio test statistic in the presence of contamination in the data. Finally, we propose empirical phi-divergence test statistics for testing a composite null hypothesis and present some asymptotic as well as simulation results for evaluating the performance of these test procedures.     

On the distribution of the likelihood ratio test of equality of normal populations

It has recently been shown by Perlman (1980) that when testing the equality of several normal distributions it is the likelihood ratio test which is unbiased rather than a test based on a modified statistic in common use. This paper gives expansions for the null distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic as well as for the nonnull distribution in a special case.     

Detection and estimation of structural change in heavy-tailed sequence

In this paper, bootstrap detection and ratio estimation are proposed to analysis mean change in heavy-tailed distribution. First, the test statistic is constructed into a ratio form on the CUSUM process. Then, the asymptotic distribution of test statistic is obtained and the consistency of the test is proved. To solve the problem that the null distribution of the test statistic contains unknown tail index, we present a bootstrap approximation method to determine the critical values of the null distribution. We also discuss how to estimate change point based on ratio method. The consistency and rate of convergence for the change-point estimator are established. Finally, the excellent performance of our method is demonstrated through simulations using artificial and real data sets. Especially the simulation results of bootstrap test are better than those of another existing method.     

Testing for a unit root in a stationary ESTAR process

This article develops a statistic for testing the null of a linear unit root process against the alternative of a stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive model. The asymptotic distribution of the test is shown to be nonstandard but nuisance parameter-free and hence critical values are obtained by simulations. Simulations show that the proposed statistic has considerable power under various data generating scenarios. Applications to real exchange rates also illustrate the ability of our test to reject null of unit root when some of the alternative tests do not.     

An analysis of pulsation periods of long period variable stars

Summary.  We report the results of a period change analysis of time series observations for 378 pulsating variable stars. The null hypothesis of no trend in expected periods is tested for each of the stars. The tests are non-parametric in that potential trends are estimated by local linear smoothers. Our testing methodology has some novel features. First, the null distribution of a test statistic is defined to be the distribution that results in repeated sampling from a population of stars. This distribution is estimated by means of a bootstrap algorithm that resamples from the collection of 378 stars. Bootstrapping in this way obviates the problem that the conditional sampling distribution of a statistic, given a particular star, may depend on unknown parameters of that star. Another novel feature of our test statistics is that one-sided cross-validation is used to choose the smoothing parameters of the local linear estimators on which they are based. It is shown that doing so results in tests that are tremendously more powerful than analogous tests that are based on the usual version of cross-validation. The positive false discovery rate method of Storey is used to account for the fact that we simultaneously test 378 hypotheses. We ultimately find that 56 of the 378 stars have changes in mean pulsation period that are significant when controlling the positive false discovery rate at the 5% level.     

Some non-parametric tests for duration dependence: an application to UK business cycle data

A distinction between Fisher's implied data-generating process for Monte Carlo cycles and the more general Markov process leads to non-parametric tests for duration dependence. Tests are based on the method of moments, Tauchen's generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure, and a statistic whose null distribution probability limit is zero. Using finite-sample critical values obtained by Monte Carlo methods, our test results are remarkably consistent. The null distribution of the GMM test statistic for samples of the size considered is distinctly non-normal, so that asymptotic critical values give erroneous results. The tests are applied to UK business cycle data for 1854-1992. There is evidence for duration dependence in expansions but not in contractions.     

An extension of Monte Carlo hypothesis tests

There are many hypothesis testing settings in which one can calculate a “reasonable” test statistic, but in which the null distribution of the statistic is unknown or completely intractable. Fortunately, in many such situations, it is possible to simulate values of the test statistic under the null hypothesis, in which case one can conduct a Monte Carlo test. A difficulty however arises in that Monte Carlo tests, as they are currently structured, are applicable only if ties cannot occur among the values of the test statistics. There is a frequently occurring scenario in which there are lots of ties, namely that in which the null distribution of the test statistic has a (single) point mass. It turns out that one can modify the current form of Monte Carlo tests so as to accommodate such settings. Developing this modification leads to an intriguing identity involving the binomial probability function and its derivatives. In this article, we will briefly explain the modified procedure, discuss simulation studies which demonstrate its efficacy, and provide a proof of the identity referred to above.     

A modified chi-square test of independence against a class of ordered alternatives in an r x c contingency table

A modified chi-square test statistic is constructed for testing the hypothesis of independence in a two-way contingency table against a class of ordered alternatives defined in terms of pooled cross-product ratios. The test procedure can also be used to test for positive quadrant dependence in a two-way contingency table. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is obtained. Some power comparisons with known test procedures are given. A numerical example is given to illustrate the use of this test.     

On similarity and independence properties of composite edf goodness-of-fit tests

Many test statistics for classical simple goodness-of-fit hypothesis testing problems are distancemeasures between the distribution function of the null hypothesis distributipn and the empirical distribution function sometimes called EDF tests. If a composite parametric null hypothesis is considered in place of the simple null hypothesis, then a test statistic can be obtained from each EDF test by replacing the known distribution function of the simple problem by the Rao-Blackwell estimating distribution function. In this note we use known results to show that these Rao-Blackwell-EDF test statistics have distributions that do not depend upon parameter values, and hence that these tests are independent of a complete sufficient statistic for the parameters.     

Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break

In this paper we propose residual-based tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break against the alternative of no cointegration. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test is proposed and its limiting distribution is obtained for the case in which the timing of a structural break is known. Then the test statistic is extended to deal with a structural break of unknown timing. The test statistic, a plug-in version of the test statistic for known timing, replaces the true break point by the estimated one. We show the limiting properties of the test statistic under the null as well as the alternative. Critical values are calculated for the tests by simulation methods. Finite-sample simulations show that the empirical size of the test is close to the nominal one unless the regression error is very persistent and that the test rejects the null when no cointegrating relationship with a structural break is present. We provide empirical examples based on the present-value model, the term structure model, and the money-output relationship model.     

Testing a linear relationship in varying coefficient spatial autoregressive models

In this article, we propose a test to check a linear relationship in varying coefficient spatial autoregressive models, in which a residual-based bootstrap procedure is suggested to approximate the null distribution of the resulting test statistic. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the test, including the validity of the bootstrap approximation to the null distribution of the test statistic and the power of the test. The simulation results demonstrate that the residual-based bootstrap procedure gives very accurate estimate of the null distribution of the test statistic and the test is of satisfactory power. Furthermore, a real example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed test.     

Gap-ratio goodness of fit tests for weibull or extreme value distribution assumptions with left or right censored data

With data collection in environmental science and bioassay, left censoring because of nondetects is a problem. Similarly in reliability and life data analysis right censoring frequently occurs. There is a need for goodness of fit tests that can adapt to left or right censored data and be used to check important distributional assumptions without becoming too difficult to regularly implement in practice. A new test statistic is derived from a plot of the standardized spacings between the order statistics versus their ranks. Any linear or curvilinear pattern is evidence against the null distribution. When testing the Weibull or extreme value null hypothesis this statistic has a null distribution that is approximately F for most combinations of sample size and censoring of practical interest. Our statistic is compared to the Mann-Scheuer-Fertig statistic which also uses the standardized spacings between the order statistics. The results of a simulation study show the two tests are competitive in terms of power. Although the Mann-Scheuer-Fertig statistic is somewhat easier to compute, our test enjoys advantages in the accuracy of the F approximation and the availability of a graphical diagnostic.     

Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break

In this paper we propose residual-based tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break against the alternative of no cointegration. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test is proposed and its limiting distribution is obtained for the case in which the timing of a structural break is known. Then the test statistic is extended to deal with a structural break of unknown timing. The test statistic, a plug-in version of the test statistic for known timing, replaces the true break point by the estimated one. We show the limiting properties of the test statistic under the null as well as the alternative. Critical values are calculated for the tests by simulation methods. Finite-sample simulations show that the empirical size of the test is close to the nominal one unless the regression error is very persistent and that the test rejects the null when no cointegrating relationship with a structural break is present. We provide empirical examples based on the present-value model, the term structure model, and the money-output relationship model.     

The Multi-Sample Block-Scalar Sphericity Test: Exact and Near-Exact Distributions for Its Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic

In this article the authors show how by adequately decomposing the null hypothesis of the multi-sample block-scalar sphericity test it is possible to obtain the likelihood ratio test statistic as well as a different look over its exact distribution. This enables the construction of well-performing near-exact approximations for the distribution of the test statistic, whose exact distribution is quite elaborate and non-manageable. The near-exact distributions obtained are manageable and perform much better than the available asymptotic distributions, even for small sample sizes, and they show a good asymptotic behavior for increasing sample sizes as well as for increasing number of variables and/or populations involved.     

OPTIMAL TESTS OF SIGNIFICANCE

To perform a test of significance of a null hypothesis, a test statistic is chosen which is expected to be small if the hypothesis is false. Then the significance level of the test for an observed sample is the probability that the test statistic, under the assumptions of the hypothesis, is as small, or smaller than, its observed value. A "good" test statistic is taken to be one which is stochastically small when the null hypothesis is false. Optimal test statistics are defined using this criterion and the relationship of these methods to the Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing is considered.     

Goodness-of-fit test for exponentiality based on spacings for general progressive Type-II censored data

There have been numerous tests proposed to determine whether or not the exponential model is suitable for a given data set. In this article, we propose a new test statistic based on spacings to test whether the general progressive Type-II censored samples are from exponential distribution. The null distribution of the test statistic is discussed and it could be approximated by the standard normal distribution. Meanwhile, we propose an approximate method for calculating the expectation and variance of samples under null hypothesis and corresponding power function is also given. Then, a simulation study is conducted. We calculate the approximation of the power based on normality and compare the results with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation under different alternatives with distinct types of hazard function. Results of simulation study disclose that the power properties of this statistic by using Monte Carlo simulation are better for the alternatives with monotone increasing hazard function, and otherwise, normal approximation simulation results are relatively better. Finally, two illustrative examples are presented.     

Order test for high-dimensional two-sample means

We propose a new method to test the order between two high-dimensional mean curves. The new statistic extends the approach of Follmann (1996) to high-dimensional data by adapting the strategy of Bai and Saranadasa (1996). The proposed procedure is an alternative to the non-negative basis matrix factorization (NBMF) based test of Lee et al. (2008) for the same hypothesis, but it is much easier to implement. We derive the asymptotic mean and variance of the proposed test statistic under the null hypothesis of equal mean curves. Based on theoretical results, we put forward a permutation procedure to approximate the null distribution of the new test statistic. We compare the power of the proposed test with that of the NBMF-based test via simulations. We illustrate the approach by an application to tidal volume traces.     

Empirical likelihood test for equality of two distributions using distance of characteristic functions

In this paper, we investigate the problem of testing for the equality of two distributions. We employ a two-sample Jackknife Empirical Likelihood (JEL) approach to construct a test statistic whose limiting distribution is Chi-square distribution with degree of freedom 1, no matter what the data dimension (fixed) is. A variety of synthetic data experiments demonstrate that our JEL test statistic performs very well, with a very neat asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis. Furthermore, we apply the test procedure to a real dataset to obtain competitive results.