美以武力解决伊核问题的合法性与可行性

发展核武器虽符合伊朗致力于成为地区大国的战略逻辑,但受到国际国内压力,伊朗未必能够突破红线,军事打击伊朗难以具备足够的合情理性和合法性。伊朗核设施具有数量多、防攻击能力强等特点,其核能力趋于成熟,其民族国家建构亦比较成功,无论是定点清除,还是全面战争,均难以达到彻底解决伊核问题的目标。军事打击还可能导致石油市场崩溃和全球经济危机,并将遭到中俄等国家的强烈反对,美以不得不有所顾忌。尽管战争的可能性始终不能排除,但遏制伊朗以及提供延伸威慑已逐渐成为美国对伊政策的重点,美伊关系有可能陷入长期低烈度但可控的冲突。     

The interactive effects of political skill and future time perspective on career and community networking behavior

Scholars have suggested that skill (Ferris et al., 2007) and motivation (Forret and Dougherty, 2001) need to be considered in predicting the direction and intensity of networking behaviors. Congruently, the present study argues that skill and motivation operate interactively and assesses the interactive impact of political skill (i.e., the ability to interact effectively with others) and future time perspective on differentially predicting community-based and career-based networking behavior. Results from a sample of managers from a national retail chain (n = 291) indicated that politically skilled individuals who possessed a deep future time perspective were more involved in career-related networking than politically skilled individuals who perceived a shallow future time perspective. Additionally, politically skilled respondents with shallow organizational time perspectives engaged in higher levels of community-based networking than did their counterparts with deeper organizational time perspectives. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of political skill, social networks, and socioemotional selectivity theory.     

Economic Influences on Presidential Popularity

Gallup data indicating presidential popularity from 1950 to1974 are analyzed in a distributed lag model which tests theimportance of key economic influences. Results indicate thatinflation and military expenditures are statistically significantand politically important influences on presidential popularity.The success of this model in revealing hitherto undetected economicinfluence calls into question the nonfindings of previous simplelinear analyses and suggests the need for more sophisticatedmodels which provide, through the use of time lags and cumulativeimpacts, a more complex pattern of economic influence on presidentialpopularity.     

Following the "Mail Hawks": Alternative Measures of Public Opinion on Vietnam in the Johnson White House

Scholars argue that public opinion grew in importance duringthe Vietnam conflict, yet most find President Johnson was notresponsive to public opinion during the War. We amplify thesetheories by demonstrating the practical value of public opinionmail sent to the White House on Vietnam, reshaping theoriesabout the constraining role of public opinion in foreign policy.We find that the White House mail, but not opinion polling,favoring escalation of the War had a significant and positiveimpact on President Johnson's policy rhetoric. From these andsimilar findings, we conclude that the Johnson Administrationfollowed core "hawkish" political allies (those individualsdesiring a rapid escalation and quick end to the war) ratherthan those approving of a withdrawal, suggesting mail-gaugedopinion from electoral partners (and core political allies morebroadly) has value in foreign policy making.     

Comparative Evaluation of the Local Police

Gallup data indicating presidential popularity from 1950 to1974 are analyzed in a distributed lag model which tests theimportance of key economic influences. Results indicate thatinflation and military expenditures are statistically significantand politically important influences on presidential popularity.The success of this model in revealing hitherto undetected economicinfluence calls into question the nonfindings of previous simplelinear analyses and suggests the need for more sophisticatedmodels which provide, through the use of time lags and cumulativeimpacts, a more complex pattern of economic influence on presidentialpopularity.     

The Events of 11 September 2001 and Beyond

After the terrible events of 11 September and the bombings of Afghanistan that followed, many around the world remarked on the distinct absence of women's and feminist voices in themass of military, policy, diplomatic, media and expert pronouncements about theimplicationsof 'the war on terrorism'declared by the USA and its allies. The editors decided to ask our associate editors and board members whether they would like to share their immediate reactions to events and we print below the comments received from around the world. They speak for themselves and demonstrate how many perspectives the current situation can be viewed. The remarks are not intended to be conclusive but we hope they contribute to addressing the absence/silencing of women's and feminist voices that have been characteristic of this time.     

Putting the Lasts First: The Case for Community-Focused and Peer-Managed NGO Accountability Mechanisms

The calls for NGO accountability have grown louder in recent years, some based on genuine concerns to help improve their performance and others on a desire to muffle their advocacy activities. Using a comprehensive analytical framework, this article finds that current accountability approaches prioritize accountability to boards and donors and give weak accountability to communities despite strong NGO rhetoric to the contrary. The article recommends the development of accountability mechanisms managed by NGO coordination bodies and focused primarily on accountability to communities to improve NGO performance and protect them from politically motivated attacks.     

Strategic interaction sequences: the institutionalization of participatory budgeting in New York City

ABSTRACT

An interactive approach to social movements highlights time dynamics in ways more correlational approaches do not, in that interaction and outcomes unfold in sequences as players react to one another. Some aspects of these engagements are shaped by institutional schedules, while others leave discretion to the players. Some institutional schedules, meanwhile, may be reshaped by strategic interactions. By examining the implicit trade-offs and explicit dilemmas that pervade strategic interaction, we see how some are tightly linked to time whereas others more closely reflect ongoing structural situations. Analyzing the case of participatory budgeting in New York City, we focus on two trade-offs, ‘being there’ and ‘powerful allies’, that appear when social movements attempt to institutionalize new policies and processes. These time-based strategic trade-offs complicate activists’ efforts to secure lasting gains.     

Social Studies Needs (New) White People: The Case for Including Allies in the Curriculum

In this conceptual article we consider the pedagogical possibilities and pitfalls of incorporating White ally figures in history and social studies curricula. Drawing on the burgeoning scholarship on race and the social studies and literature on alternative racial orientations, such as allies, antiracists, and abolitionists, we contend that educators can use White-ally pedagogy to offer White students, in particular, examples of an antiracist White racial identity. We close with guidelines to provide social studies educators and teacher educators with a starting point for effectively introducing White allies into the social studies.     

Youth,activism, and social movements

There has been considerable debate over the extent and role of young people's political participation. Whether considering popular hand‐wringing over concerns about declines in young people's institutional political participation or dismissals of young people's use of online activism, many frame youth engagement through a “youth deficit” model that assumes that adults need to politically socialize young people. However, others argue that young people are politically active and actively involved in their own political socialization, which is evident when examining youth participation in protest, participatory politics, and other forms of noninstitutionalized political participation. Moreover, social movement scholars have long documented the importance of youth to major social movements. In this article, we bring far flung literatures about youth activism together to review work on campus activism; young people's political socialization, their involvement in social movement organizations, their choice of tactics; and the context in which youth activism takes place. This context includes the growth of movement societies, the rise of fan activism, and pervasive Internet use. We argue that social movement scholars have already created important concepts (e.g., biographical availability) and questions (e.g., biographical consequences of activism) from studying young people and urge additional future research.     

美国应对中东剧变的“奥巴马主义”探析

美国应对中东剧变的政策措施彰显"奥巴马主义",即军事上谨慎用兵,避免直接地面占领或卷入一场针对伊斯兰国家的新战争,而是通过武装反对派推行"阿拉伯人打阿拉伯人",减少人道主义干预的成本;政治上运用所谓美国的"巧实力",让欧洲大国和阿拉伯盟友提出议程设置,充当"急先锋",美国在背后"掌舵",以最廉价的方式延续美国在中东的领导地位;外交上通过议题设置,让联合国人权委员会等国际组织和非政府组织服务于美国政府;经济上运用援助和制裁两手政策来实现政治目标;文化上利用媒体、非政府组织和网络,开展民间外交和网络外交。奥巴马政府试图综合运用军事、政治、外交、经济和文化手段,推动中东反美国家的政权更迭,维护亲美国家的政局稳定。研究表明,无论是主张依靠硬实力的"布什主义",还是主张依靠巧实力的"奥巴马主义",其在中东维持美国领导地位的战略目标,却是一致的。     

Greedy Media: Army Families,Embedded Reporting,and War in Iraq

Abstract

Embedded reporting in Operation Iraqi Freedom provided real-time coverage of soldiers in war that was viewed and read by publics around the globe. Most constituents, such as the military, media, and the larger U. S. public perceived this coverage as positive; however, live television coverage had an intense and uncalculated impact on some U.S. Army wives and others on a military post at the individual, community, and institutional levels. This study provides a qualitative perspective on U.S. Army wives (N = 23) and their children on a military post whose soldiers deployed in the earliest phase of the war in Iraq in 2003. Live coverage created three types of viewing for Army wives and their children—compulsive, controlled, and constrained—and hastened use of other types of communication media. Live coverage also contributed to the expansion of the traditional definition of the military family and extended the reach of the Family Readiness Groups and the role of the Rear Detachment Command. We argue for an extension of Mady Segal's “greedy institution” application to the military family to include the mass media—specifically live television coverage of war.     

Electoral democracy, revolutionary politics and political violence: the emergence of Fascism in Italy, 1920-21

This study examines the determination of the Italian Fascists' extra‐parliamentary, para‐military, violent strategy. What were the effects of the socialists' political strategy, relying on electoral democracy, on the creation and strategy of the Fascist Action Squads? A comparison among Italy's 69 provinces, based on quantitative and qualitative historical evidence reveals a distinct pattern in the Fascists' violence. They attacked mainly provinces where the Socialists enjoyed the greatest electoral support. This pattern was a product of two historical processes: (a) the threat of the Socialist party to the landlords' economic and political hegemony, and (b) the landlords' tradition of militant anti‐worker organization which culminated in their alliance with the Fascists. The Fascists' struggle for, and takeover of, political power was not an immanent historical necessity. It was first and foremost an anti‐socialist reaction. It was shaped both ‘from below’, by the political power and radicalism of the PSI and the para‐military capacity of the Fascist Squads; and ‘from above’, by the active support the Fascists received from the landlords and the state. Supported by organized landlords and blessed with the authorities' benevolence, the Squads were able to destroy – physically and politically – the legitimately constituted provincial governments of the Socialists. The alliance with the landlords determined the Squads' almost exclusive attacks on Socialist provincial strongholds that constituted the greatest threat to the landlords' interests, while provinces dominated by the ruling Liberal party were excluded from the Squads' path of ‘punitive expeditions’.     

The Social Lives of the Elite: Friendship and Power in Pakistan

The ways in which elite individuals perpetuate their power and privilege and so reinforce existing social inequalities within developing country contexts are analysed in this article. I argue that in highly politically and economically unstable environments, socialising between the uppermost bureaucratic, political, military and business elite serves to create intimacy and obligation between individuals who may be functionally useful to one another, and strengthens and reinforces elite privilege. In examining the motivations that drive the ways in which elites socialise, I contend that the blending of affective and instrumental relationships is reflective of the deep insecurity experienced by elites in contexts where they cannot expect their power and privilege to be upheld by the state.     

The Political Economy of FEMA Disaster Payments

We find that presidential and congressional influences affect the rate of disaster declaration and the allocation of FEMA disaster expenditures across states. States politically important to the president have a higher rate of disaster declaration by the president, and disaster expenditures are higher in states having congressional representation on FEMA oversight committees. Election year impacts are also found. Our models predict that nearly half of all disaster relief is motivated politically rather than by need. The findings reject a purely altruistic model of FEMA assistance and question the relative effectiveness of government versus private disaster relief.     

The Role of Practice in the Development of Military Masculinities

This article seeks to explore the extent to which the military rebuilds or reframes masculinities as a means of meeting the aims of the process of militarization. It focuses on the dimensions of military masculinities that can be distinguished as distinctive in practice. Drawing on Etienne Wenger's notion of communities of practice, this research asks how military men orient themselves in their social and material world, considering the role of practice in the development of military masculinities. A total of 71 semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 53 male and 18 female personnel of various ranks working in the Army, Navy and Royal Air Force. Six focus groups were also carried out (with a total of 10 male and six female participants). Thematic analyses of the narratives indicated that one outcome of militarization is the construction of military masculinities. The military reframes masculinities as a means of meeting the aims of the process of militarization. Dimensions of military masculinities can be distinguished as attributes and qualities and masculinities that are distinctive to the military are constructed through military practice. A strong sense of belonging to the military community of practice is fundamental to the development of military masculinities. In order to feel that one belongs, the recognition and acceptance of others is needed. Those who share the attributes and comply with the practices peculiar to the military achieve this recognition.     

THE EFFECTS OF JOB RELOCATION ON SPOUSAL CAREERS: EVIDENCE FROM MILITARY CHANGE OF STATION MOVES

We investigate the impact of military job relocation on spousal earnings and employment by creating a unique longitudinal database that tracks over 900,000 military spouses over the period 2001–2012, based on data from two administrative sources—military records on personnel and their dependents, and Social Security earnings records. This database allows us to estimate the effects of military change of station moves controlling for some key observable characteristics of the service‐member and household and controlling for individual spouse fixed effects. We find that military moves cause a substantial decline in spousal earnings in the year of the move, on the order of $2,100, or 14% of average spousal earnings. Moves also increase the likelihood that the spouse has no earnings for the year. We find larger earnings reductions for moves that cross state lines, and for older spouses, male spouses, and those with young children. The career costs persist over time and spouses continue to experience significantly lower earnings 2 years after the move. This persistence, combined with the typical military member experiencing a change of station move every 2 or 3 years, may substantially limit the ability of military spouses to accumulate human capital over time. (JEL H56, R23, J45, J16, J64)     

The re-accomplishment of place in twentieth century Vermont and New Hampshire: history repeats itself,until it doesn’t

Much recent literature plumbs the question of the origins and trajectories of “place,” or the cultural development of space-specific repertoires of action and meaning. This article examines divergence in two “places” that were once quite similar but are now quite far apart, culturally and politically speaking. Vermont, once considered the “most Republican” state in the United States, is now generally considered one of its most politically and culturally liberal. New Hampshire, by contrast, has remained politically and socially quite conservative. Contrasting legacies of tourist promotion, political mobilization, and public policy help explain the divergence between states. We hypothesize that emerging stereotypes about a “place” serve to draw sympathetic residents and visitors to that place, thus reinforcing the salience of those stereotypes and contributing to their reality over time. We term this latter process idio-cultural migration and argue its centrality to ongoing debates about the accomplishment of place. We also elaborate on several means by which such place “reputations” are created, transmitted, and maintained.     

Strategic Management and the Performance of Public Organizations: Testing Venerable Ideas against Recent Theories

Miles and Snow, among others, argue that strategy content isan important influence on organizational performance. Theirtypology, applied recently to public organizations in the UnitedKingdom, divides strategic actors into four general types: prospectors,defenders, analyzers, and reactors. This article begins by integratingwork on strategy content or strategic management into the O'Toole-Meierformal theory of public management. This study shows that strategycontent is a subset of generally accepted management functionsin public organizations. The article then proceeds to test thestrategic management concepts in a large, multiyear sample ofpublic organizations. The results show that strategy can beseparated out from other elements of management for a distinguishableassessment of its impact on organizational performance. Unlikethe predictions of Miles and Snow and the empirical findingsof Boyne and Walker, however, we find that the defender strategyis the most effective for the primary mission of the organizationand that the prospector and reactor strategies work best inregard to the goals of the more politically powerful elementsof the organization's environment.