Satisfaction and Tourism Expenditure Behaviour

In the literature, the quantification of the effect of satisfaction on tourists’ expenditure behaviour has not been extensively studied. This research aims to fill in this gap, providing additional information about this crucial relation by analysing it from a microdata perspective. In particular, the Fuzzy Double-Hurdle model, a new model which combines the well-known Double-Hurdle model and the fuzzy set theory, is suggested and presented, both technically and by means of a real case study. The proposed model gathers the advantages of the Double-Hurdle model and the fuzzy set theory together producing a suitable model for the analysis of censored observations in presence of imprecise data. Specifically, the Double-Hurdle model allows to efficiently estimate the average values of a non-negative, non-normally distributed variable characterised by high frequency of zero values, as tourists’ expenditure can be, considering the two-stages nature of the decision process. On the other end, the inclusion of the fuzzy set theory in the regression model allows to cope with the imprecision of both collected information (i.e. levels of satisfaction) and kind of measurement used (i.e. Liker-type scale). The results will help tourism managers to more accurately evaluate the efficacy of their policies and marketing strategies in enhancing tourists’ satisfaction and, consequently, in increasing the level of spending at the destination.

     

Random walk Green kernels in the neutral Moran model conditioned on survivors at a random time to origin

In the theory of finite discrete-time birth and death chains with absorbing endpoint boundaries, the evaluation of both additive and multiplicative path functionals is made possible by their Green and λ–potential kernels. These computations are addressed in the context of such Markov chains. The application to the neutral Moran model of population genetics yields first hitting and return times. A neutral Moran bridge model, forward and backward in time, for a given total number x of survivors of a single common ancestor at some random time T to the origin of times, yields the age of a mutant allele currently observed to have x copies of itself. This forward theory of age, made possible by Green kernels, is comparable to Watterson’s backward theory of age, which makes use of the reversibility of the Moran chain.     

水库移民与水电工程效益共享安置模式研究

水库移民一直是困扰着水利水电工程建设和发展的难题 ,本文首先分析了我国水库移民工作的现状和存在的问题 ,指出现有水库移民共享水电工程效益政策的局限性 ;从水库淹没区资源价值转移理论和一般系统论理论着手 ,深入分析水库移民共享水利水电工程效益 ,突破水库移民安置的传统做法 ,提出了水库移民与水利水电工程效益共享安置模式的运作方法 ,并应用广东省都坪水电站案例进行了实证分析     

Generationenabfolge – ein Faktor des Wandels in Modernisierungsprozessen. Shmuel N. Eisenstadts Beitrag zur Generationensoziologie

This paper will highlight to what extend Eisenstadt’s theory connects to the approach of historic generations. At first, his early comparative work “From Generation to Generation” is reconstructed. In this book, Eisenstadt presents a model of generations based on structural-functionalist assumptions; he conceptualizes the relation between generations and social change as a problem of system integration of specific age-groups on the one hand and the regulation of tensions between these groups on the other hand. Using the youth- and student movements as an example, this article shows how Eisenstadt’s interpretations change with the development of his theory. In the second part of this paper, it will be proposed how his approach can be developed further by interlocking his concept more closely with Mannheim’s theory of generations as well as other recent findings of socialization theory. It will furthermore be discussed, how his modernization theory has the potential to solve a theoretical problem inherent in Mannheim’s approach.     

The Biodemography of Variation in Human Frailty

A population is composed of individuals who are heterogeneous in their susceptibility to death and disease. This heterogeneity is reflected in the age-specific incidence or mortality (hazard) function. This variation has typically been hidden--that is, not measured directly--and has generally been modeled in a purely empirical statistical way, because there is no theory in demography for the distribution of frailty. A substantial fraction of variation in frailty, however, has an underlying genetic basis, for which there is a formal theory. This theory, based on evolutionary biology and on the nature of mendelian transmission, provides prior constraints on the distribution of variation in the population as well as providing methods for identifying genes involved in many important diseases. The accumulating effects of environmental exposures with age are another major component of variation in frailty. In some important instances, this variation and its effect on the age-specific hazard function can also be understood in terms of cause-specific biological processes. These biological considerations may enable demographers to model frailty, and thus mortality, in a better way.     

The nature of gender

I explain a biosocial model of women’s gendered behavior (behavior on which the sexes differ). This model integrates a macro sociological theory with a biological theory derived from primate behavior. The sociological model is designed to explain changes in the relationship between sex and behavior over time or between groups. The biological model is designed to explain individual within-sex variance and between-sex variance in gendered behavior in a cohort. Results from an original study are presented to demonstrate that within-sex variance in women’s gendered behavior is explained well by the primate model. I conclude that human nature is gendered. The implications of this conclusion are explored for demographic and other social science research.     

新型城镇化背景下基于包容性发展视域的农村社会管理创新全景模型的构建

本文以包容性发展理论为线索,深入剖析了包容性发展理论与农村社会管理间的内在逻辑性,从发展理论入手,探讨了包容性发展理论对农村社会管理创新的启示。作者将提出基于包容性视域下的农村社会管理创新模式的核心理念、行为主体的作用机制以及开展相关实践的保障性机制,并构建基于包容性视域的农村社会管理模式的全景模型。     

Verantwortliches Handeln als soziologischer Grundbegriff

As a critical modification of Parsons voluntaristic theory of action as well as of the theories of rational choice, this contribution suggests Max Weber’s concept of “responsibility” or “responsible action” as an enclosing model of action rationality, integrating both individual freedom of choice as well as over-individual categorical values. This systematical benefit of the concept of “responsibility” is especially due to the idea of a “value discussion”. This dialogical enlargement of rationality includes a modern theory of validity essentially needed to save the rationality of categorical values and to allow the equality of value-rational orientations next to questions of utility. This being said, responsibility can be presented as a basic concept of sociology, containing the key to an integrative social theory based on methodological individualism.     

A reformulation of the two-sex problem

The ability of classical stable population theory to determine the equilibrium growth rate and age structure of a population from its vital rates in a single period depends on assuming that the observed maternity rates are equilibrium rates. This paper resolves the two-sex problem by replacing the fixed, age-specific fertility schedule of classical stable population theory by two basic relationships: a “birth matrix” and a “mating rule.” Placing certain restrictions on the birth matrix and the mating rule (BMMR), I establish that under certain plausible conditions, the BMMR model solves the two-sex problem by allowing matings and births to adjust to changes in population structure. The BMMR model thus provides an equilibrating mechanism in place of a fixed maternity schedule of classical stable population theory.     

Physical Self-Efficacy and Depressive Symptomatology in Older Women: A Group Treatment Approach

This article presents an outline of a practice model geared toward alleviating depressive symptomatology in older women. Based in Bandura's (1977) self-efficacy theory, and on empirical data reported in this article, the focus of the practice model is on physical self-efficacy as a cognitive mediator of depressive symptoms in older women. Through the use of a group treatment approach, an attempt is made to raise levels of physical self-efficacy, and to determine the concomitant changes in depressive symptoms. Finally, the importance of continued research, and the further refinement of practice methods based in theory is stressed.     

Investigating Importance Weighting of Satisfaction Scores from a Formative Model with Partial Least Squares Analysis

This study introduced a formative model to investigate the utility of importance weighting on satisfaction scores with partial least squares analysis. Based on the bottom-up theory of satisfaction evaluations, the measurement structure for weighted/unweighted domain satisfaction scores was modeled as a formative model, whereas the measurement structure for global satisfaction scores was modeled as a reflective model according to top-down theory. The purpose was to see if the predictive effect of importance-weighted domain satisfaction scores is stronger than unweighted domain satisfaction scores in predicting global satisfaction scores. Three datasets in life, self, and job satisfaction were analyzed. In the life satisfaction dataset, 237 undergraduates at Central Taiwan University of Science and Technology voluntarily provided their responses. The mean age of respondents was 20.80 years (SD = 1.05). In the self-satisfaction dataset, 269 undergraduates at National Taiwan University provided their responses. The mean age of respondents was 19.78 years (SD = 1.44). Finally, in the job satisfaction dataset, 557 staff members in seven Taiwan provincial hospitals provided their responses. The mean age of respondents was 35.87 years (range from 21 to 65, SD = 8.60). Three measures of domain satisfaction, domain importance, and global satisfaction were collected in each dataset. Partial least squares analysis was used in model estimation. All the results revealed that unweighted domain satisfaction scores have a stronger predictive effect for global satisfaction measures than importance-weighted domain satisfaction scores, indicating that importance weighting on satisfaction scores did not have an empirical benefit.     

Applying a knowledge translation model to the uptake of the Baby Friendly Health Initiative in the Australian health care system

BackgroundThe Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative is a global, evidence-based, public health initiative. The evidence underpinning the Initiative supports practices promoting the initiation and maintenance of breastfeeding and encourages women's informed infant feeding decisions. In Australia, where the Initiative is known as the Baby Friendly Health Initiative (BFHI) the translation of evidence into practice has not been uniform, as demonstrated by a varying number of maternity facilities in each State and Territory currently accredited as ‘baby friendly’. This variance has persisted regardless of BFHI implementation in Australia gaining ‘in principle’ support at a national and governmental level as well as inclusion in health policy in several states. There are many stakeholders that exert an influence on policy development and health care practices.AimIdentify a theory and model to examine where and how barriers occur in the gap between evidence and practice in the uptake of the BFHI in Australia.ResultsKnowledge translation theory and the research to practice pipeline model are used to examine the identified barriers to BFHI implementation and accreditation in Australia.ConclusionAustralian and international studies have identified similar issues that have either enabled implementation of the BFHI or acted as a barrier. Knowledge translation theory and the research to practice pipeline model is of practical value to examine barriers. Recommendations in the form of specific targeted strategies to facilitate knowledge transfer and supportive practices into the Australian health care system and current midwifery practice are included.     

Black,Queer, and Looking for a Job: An Exploratory Study of Career Decision Making Among Self-Identified Sexual Minorities at an Urban Historically Black College/University

This thematically analyzed study seeks to explore the career decision perceptions of sexual minority college students at an urban historically black college/university (HBCU). This qualitative focus group study delved into how sexual minorities feel their visible variables of race, gender expression, and degree of disclosure influence their career thought process. Theories relative to the study included Krumboltz’s social learning theory of career decision-making, gender role theory, racial socialization, Cass’s homosexual identity model, and impression management. Though participants initially proclaimed they did not allow their sexual minority identity to affect their career decisions, their overall responses indicated otherwise.     

低工资水平下城市农民工的劳动供给模型

文章通过构建可变必需支出约束下的农民工劳动供给模型,对经典的劳动供给理论进行了修正,并利用浙江省温州市农民工的调查数据对模型进行了实证检验。文章指出,由于农民工的劳动供给受到必需支出的约束,经典劳动供给曲线将在低工资水平处出现一个拐点,在拐点工资率以下,农民工的劳动供给与工资率之间存在反向变动关系,当工资率下降时,农民工将适当地压缩必需支出,增加劳动时间,减少闲暇时间;当工资率上升时,农民工将适当地提高必需支出,减少劳动时间,增加闲暇时间。另外,非劳动收入、可支配的时间总量、物价水平等外生变量也将影响农民工的劳动供给。     

A stocks and flows approach to a theory of human migration with examples from past Irish migration

While scientists from many disciplines have contributed to the understanding of specific instances of human migration, there is need for a more general theory of voluntary migration. This paper presents and tests (using data on Irish migration) an economic model which could serve as the core of a multidisciplinary general theory. The economic model postulates earnings differentials between countries and regions as the proximate cause of the generation of a stock of migrants. As a result of institutional barriers, personal inertia, incomplete knowledge of earnings differentials, etc., not all of the existing stock becomes a flow of migrants in any year. Application of this model to migration between different countries or between the same countries at different time periods can be of value to scientists in many disciplines in isolating the underlying causes for differing rates of awareness of and response to earnings differentials by potential migrants.     

我国人口与海洋渔业资源系统仿真模型的构建

在对以往研究文献进行评述的基础上 ,本文构建了适合我国国情的人口与海洋渔业资源的仿真系统 ,其中主要包括人口、海洋渔业生产、水产品消费和海洋渔业资源四个子系统 ,这对于定量仿真分析提供了重要的理论框架。文章最后还对构建我国人口与海洋渔业资源系统仿真模型的思路、研究方法等做了初步的讨论。     

Two fish species competition model with nonlinear interactions and equilibrium catches

Summary Two species competition model is built up by assuming the hypothetical second order interactions in order to consider effects of exploitation on two competing fish species with non-linear interactions. Most important characteristic of this model, compared withLotka-Volterra type linear competition model, is that this model can possess multiple stable equilibrium points. Therefore there is a possibility that two species keeping the equilibrium state at one stable equilibrium point will be attracted to the other stable equilibrium point after a heavy perturbation. In this model reversible change of the fishing pressure does not always results in that of the equilibrium catch. In this sence MSY concept for single species can not be extended to this model. If there are multiple stable equilibrium points, the change of the dominant fish species, catastrophic and irreversible change of each equilibrium catch may be observed when the perturbation by the exploitation is added. This phenomenon immediately reminds us of the change of the dominant fish species between Japanese common mackerel and Pacific saury in the northwest Pacific Ocean. In case of the management of two competing fish species with nonlinear interactions, the consideration on the balance between the fishing pressure for each species may be as important as the decision on the catch limit for each species. MSY level for each species based on the single-species theory could be quite erroneous.     

Does Relative Risk Aversion explain educational inequality? A dynamic choice approach

The theory of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) suggests that educational decision making is motivated by the individual's desire to avoid downward social class mobility and, furthermore, that this desire is stronger than the desire to pursue upward mobility. This paper develops a Dynamic Decision Process (DDP) model which tests the two central behavioral assumptions in the RRA theory that (1) individuals maximize utility when making educational decisions and (2) the RRA mechanism comprises an important component in the educational decision-making process. Furthermore, our DDP model allows for class-specific cultural values regarding education. We analyze data from the Danish Youth Longitudinal Study and find strong evidence that RRA affects educational decisions over and above traditional socioeconomic factors.     

The Relationship between Income and Satisfaction: The Effect of Measurement Error and Suppressor Variables

In this paper the author attempts, as far as possible, to explain the subjective variable ``life satisfaction' by the objective variable ``income'. The reason for this is that the effect of the objective living conditions on the subjective feelings of people has been found to be very small. Much to the surprise of the author, a considerable effect of the objective variable has been found in a Russian panel study where it was possible to use lagged variables as suppressor variables and to correct for measurement errors in the different variables. This result lends considerable support for the dynamic equilibrium model as an explanatory theory of satisfaction.     

Cycles in the two-sex problem: an investigation of a nonlinear demographic model

"A fundamental shortcoming of classic stable population theory is its failure to handle populations differentiated by sex. The classic theory is linear while the two-sex problem is inherently nonlinear. Previous two-sex investigations have focused on equilibrium conditions rather than dynamics, and ignored competition between age groups for marriage partners. This study makes a start at analyzing dynamics and models that incorporate competition, which can play an important role in any realistic marriage model and can turn a model with a stable equilibrium sex ratio into one with a cycling equilibrium." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. (SUMMARY IN FRE)