A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

论人口控制政策对突破低水平均衡陷阱的促进作用

当今世界主题是和平与发展,因此经济发展成为多数国家政府政策的中心。目前多数发展中国家实施了人口控制政策,这有利于减缓世界人口剧增的趋势。但是这是否有利于发展中国家的经济发展呢?文章结合一定前提,通过定性探讨纳尔逊低水平均衡理论在人口非自然增长情况下的具体体现,得出了结论:发展中国家实施人口控制政策能够降低突破低水平均衡陷阱的机会成本,有助于加快走出低水平均衡陷阱困境的状态;长期实施过紧的人口控制政策不利于国家经济的可持续发展;人口控制政策的松绑是一个渐进式过程。     

70年代以来美国国内人口迁移态势与成因分析

美国人口密度相对较小 ,自然增长缓慢 ,机械变动大 ,外来人口补充了其劳动力资源。 90年代以来 ,美国国内的人口迁移呈下降趋势 ,迁移规律表现为 :1 向西部、向南部向阳光地带流动 ;2 向大都市区流动 ;3 由城市向市郊转移 ,向乡间转移。其迁移规律表现为 :短距离迁移者多 ,租房户迁移多 ,2 0 - 30岁的年轻人迁移者多。形成这一态势的原因有三 :市场结构性的变化、经济利益的驱动和文化生态因素     

文化的同化对加拿大老年人居住方式的影响

本文基于加拿大 1996年移民数据 ,利用单因素和多因素Logit模型分析方法 ,试图研究文化因素对老年人居住方式的影响。主要结论如下 :文化因素对老年人居住方式的选择有重要影响 ;文化的同化对移民居住方式的选择有显著作用 ,表现为移民时间越早的移民老年人独立居住的倾向越强 ;文化同化速度的快慢对不同种族来源的移民来说是不同的。该文认为 ,在未来相当长的时间内 ,与子女合住仍然是中国老年人居住方式的主流     

The Risk of an Unwanted Birth: The Changing Context of Contraceptive Sterilization in the U.S.

Life-table estimates indicate that one-quarter of U.S. women intend no more births by age 25, one-half by age 27, and three-quarters by age 30. The resulting long period at risk of unwanted fertility is argued to be an important underlying dimension of the revolution in attitudes to and practice of sterilization. Life-table estimates are then considered of the timing of sterilization after the last wanted birth. Almost one-quarter of all couples select sterilization within the first year after they have had the number of children they desire. Recent experience would imply that four-fifths of all couples will eventually use contraceptive sterilization. In order to examine the determinants of men's and women's sterilization, logistic regression is used with a polytomous dependent variable: sterilization of the woman, sterilization of the man, or no sterilization within four years of the last wanted birth. Covariates considered are age and parity at last wanted birth, year and duration of marriage at last wanted birth, wife's and husband's education, wife's and husband's religion, whether residence is in a central city, region, pill-use history and timing-failure histories before the last wanted birth, and unwanted birth. Large and significant effects are found for most of these variables, and these effects change in interpretable ways between early innovative behaviour and sterilization during the most recent period when it was widely accepted.     

人口结构因素对美国房地产业发展的影响

房地产业是美国经济的重要组成部分。二战后的美国房地产业发展呈现明显的周期波动状态。除货币市场、利率调整等经济因素和政府调控、政策调整等政治因素外,二战后美国人口结构变化也在很大程度上影响着房地产业的发展变化,其中,以人口年龄结构、家庭结构和空间分布结构对其影响最为显著。     

社会性别化的风险、经历与反应——对美国妇女与艾滋病的探讨

艾滋病目前已成为美国一个严重的社会问题和大众健康问题。妇女从 2 0世纪 80年代在边缘徘徊 ,到 90年代已陷入了该危机的“震中”。本文将从女权主义的视野来审视这场社会性别化的传染病 ,即把社会性别当作主要变量来考察它同种族、族裔、阶级、性取向以及文化等诸因素的交叉互动 ,并从纷繁复杂的艾滋病现象和文献中梳理出妇女与艾滋病关系上的社会性别差异。文章最后将提出若干可资借鉴并值得我们警觉的建议     

新农村视域下农村妇女面临的十大结构解析——基于重庆市的调查

农村留守妇女问题是建设新农村时期我们所要面对与硌须解决的重要问题。文章以课题组的调研数据为依据，对重庆市农村留守妇女的大概情况进行了总结，指出在社会主义新农村建设时期，我国农村妇女面临着包括年龄结构、家庭结构等十种结构的挑战，通过分析进而提出相应的（主要针对当下政府的）一些政策建议。     

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth satisfaction in a prospective cohort of 2,341 U.S. women

ProblemBirth satisfaction is an important health outcome that is related to postpartum mood, infant caretaking, and future pregnancy intention.BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected antenatal care and intrapartum practices that may reduce birth satisfaction.AimTo investigate the extent to which pandemic-related factors predicted lower birth satisfaction.Methods2341 women who were recruited prenatally in April–May 2020 and reported a live birth between April–October 2020 were included in the current analysis. Hierarchical linear regression to predict birth satisfaction from well-established predictors of birth satisfaction (step 1) and from pandemic-related factors (step 2) was conducted. Additionally, the indirect associations of pandemic-related stress with birth satisfaction were investigated.FindingsThe first step of the regression explained 35% of variance in birth satisfaction. In the second step, pandemic-related factors explained an additional 3% of variance in birth satisfaction. Maternal stress about feeling unprepared for birth due to the pandemic and restrictions on companions during birth independently predicted lower birth satisfaction beyond the non-pandemic variables. Pandemic-related unpreparedness stress was associated with more medicalized birth and greater incongruence with birth preference, thus also indirectly influencing birth satisfaction through a mediation process.DiscussionWell-established contributors to birth satisfaction remained potent during the pandemic. In addition, maternal stress and restriction on accompaniment to birth were associated with a small but significant reduction in birth satisfaction.ConclusionStudy findings suggest that helping women set flexible and reasonable expectations for birth and allowing at least one intrapartum support person can improve birth satisfaction.     

On the Decline of Marriage in Rural Ireland 1851–1911: The Role of Ecological Constraints and/or Developing Philopatry

The proportion of people who never married and the age at first marriage increased in rural Ireland after the famine (1845–1847). In 1851, 11% of the population were never married at 45–54 years and this percentage increased steadily over time to 34% for men and 25% for women in 1936. The period from 1851 to 1911 was marked by economic progress, and despite some bad years, production, incomes and standards of living increased steadily. Ownership of land, passing from landlord to tennant, thus fixed the population to specific geographic locations and made the rural population increasingly philopatric. The Ecological Constraints Hypotheses (E.C.H.). has been used to explain the low marriage rate. It asserts that delayed dispersal and reproduction are caused by constraints such as a lack of access to resources such as land or mates. However in rural Ireland, wealthy heads of households were more likely to be celibate than occupiers of small holdings. The low nuptiality that developed after the famine appeared first in the more prosperous parts of Ireland and was accompanied by a substantial rise in living standards. The increasingly secure tie after the famine between the rural population and its geographic location reflected a new ecological situation which facilitated a change in reproductive strategy that was characterised by delayed marriage and an increase in celibacy. This strategy is adaptive in a stable ecology without major threats to survival. The data are consistent with evidence from animals and human populations showing associations in a stable ecology between long life expectancy, low population turnover and low fecundity, yet a rate of reproduction that is sufficient to maintain the population in its environment.